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View Full Version : 538: Dennis Will Poll 28% election day




Imperial
10-10-2010, 10:38 PM
538 politics is pegging John Dennis with 28% of the vote on election day.

Although this sounds bad, it is really good historically. Pelosi's strongest opponent ever polled 18.5%, a Republican in 1994.

Aratus
10-11-2010, 02:21 PM
538 politics IMOHO is easily 15 to 20 points off --- john dennis feels like he's sooo close to a 43% to 48% final tally

LudwigVonMisoSoup
10-11-2010, 02:59 PM
538 politics IMOHO is easily 15 to 20 points off --- john dennis feels like he's sooo close to a 43% to 48% final tally

Do you have a source for this? I know he's mentioned being really optimistic about his chances, wondering if you had an interview or article where he thinks it may be near that threshold. Conversely, if you work within the campaign, that may explain your insider knowledge.

Aratus
10-11-2010, 03:04 PM
lets postulate that frisco right now is similar to my house district.
in my district, in my home state, scott brown LEAPED ahead by
TEN to FIFTEEN points in the last week to three days of his
campaign. i cannot disclose any internal push polls that i have
never seen, and i am not connected up to JOHN DENNIS's people.

Aratus
10-11-2010, 03:07 PM
even my being told that only 9% of the voters are registered GOP ...this still does
not doom the JOHN DENNIS campaign to a slightly better than average NOV tally!
the mercurical fluidity of finicky fickle independents is truely infamous & legendary.

Imperial
10-11-2010, 04:00 PM
You are already seeing Dennis at 28% in this model, stronger than any other challenger to Pelosi in the past. There is no way that I see Dennis at 43%, or 40% for that matter. If he were at 35% that would still be a spectacular showing against Pelosi.

But considering that the only poll of the race had Dennis at 19%, and that he has jumped almost 10 points since then, that is pretty darn good in San Francisco. In this race, I don't see any problems with Silver's model.

libertarian4321
10-12-2010, 04:04 AM
even my being told that only 9% of the voters are registered GOP ...this still does
not doom the JOHN DENNIS campaign to a slightly better than average NOV tally!
the mercurical fluidity of finicky fickle independents is truely infamous & legendary.

Republicans are 9%,

Independents are 30%.

Dennis could get ALL Republican and ALL Independent votes (not going to happen, but for the sake of argument), and he'd still get crushed 61-39.

Some of you people are simply delusional in your optimism.

libertarian4321
10-12-2010, 04:07 AM
You are already seeing Dennis at 28% in this model, stronger than any other challenger to Pelosi in the past. There is no way that I see Dennis at 43%, or 40% for that matter. If he were at 35% that would still be a spectacular showing against Pelosi.



35% would be a spectacular showing in that district. I think he'd be doing extremely well to crack 30%. Even 25% would be decent.

Aratus
10-12-2010, 11:28 AM
lets assume 10% of HER noble Democrats are like classic southern or border~state yellow dogs

in that they once humoured a wise ronnie reagan before his short term and long term memory

had their obvious glitches. swing a workingclass almost reagan-ite ex-union blue or yellow

dawg or some critter st. patrick's day green almost foaming at the mouth in high discontent

and then you have a victory arrive that is more than simply metaphysical or esoteric methinks!

Aratus
10-12-2010, 11:32 AM
these are "purple shamrock" verses henry cabot lodge junior thoughts on the brain circa 1936...

Aratus
10-12-2010, 11:42 AM
i spent the past year doing opines inside the rand paul 2010 forum as he edged past

sen. mitch mcconnell's personal choise for jim bunning's senate seat and yes, i expect

trey grayson to be a kentucky come-back kid down the road, who can put a distance

between his own cherubic fess parker good looks and the lopsided 60 to 40 trouncing!

i see john dennis (R) as being positioned correctly inside the district, even down to the

foreign policy debate we have let alone the way hemp seperates out from mere joints

and harder drugs! IMOHO he could pull at traditional reagan democrats of which california

seems to bave been somewhat of a hive colony thereto of! like even if ms. nancy pelosi

has had very impressive november numbers in the recent past why must we assume that

indeed ALL her Democrats must totally ticket ballot vote like an army of robotized zombies!