IN CENSUS ESTIMATES Texas Gets Four Additional CONGRESSional seats

[lynnf]

sorry, no link at this time, only text (maybe)

[Zippyjuan]

A reminder that these are just ESTIMATES and that the actual counting is still going on.
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_e6b75588-cbd9-58b8-8254-e8c01b55bb51.html

Missouri and Illinois are each likely to lose a congressional seat when 2010 census numbers are complete, according to a new report. The news had been expected in Illinois because of slow population grown. In the Show-Me State, the potential loss might be caused by a relatively low rate of return for census forms, among other factors.

The report by Election Data Services is only an estimate, and the decision won't be made until the Census Bureau releases its report at the end of the year.

But if the forecast is correct, then Illinois will have 18 congressional seats in 2012 and Missouri will have eight.

Every 10 years, the House's 435 seats are reapportioned based on changes in population. So Missouri and Illinois' losses would be a boon to other states, such as Texas, which is projected to gain four seats.


Found a litttle more detailed report: http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/27/census-data-shows-texas-florida-big-winners/

A new estimate of House reapportionment gains and losses resulting from this year’s Census reveals a larger-than-expected impact on Florida and New York. According to Washington-based Election Data Services, which reviewed new Census data from a private-sector demographic firm, Florida would gain two House seats and New York would lose two seats.
They would join two other states that already were projected to have multiple-seat changes. Based on the tentative Census data, Texas is expected to gain four House seats and Ohio likely will lose two seats.
According to the EDS estimate, six other states each would gain one seat: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Eight states would each lose one seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
In addition to the Florida and New York changes, the other major switch in the projected reapportionment is that Missouri will lose a House seat instead of Minnesota, according to EDS President Kimball Brace. He released the study for a redistricting seminar of the National Conference of State Legislature in Providence, Rhode Island, this weekend.


But to repeat, these are preliminary estimates only.

[Imperial]

Everybody knows that Texas will get at least 3 congressional districts. The trouble is we are right on the edge of getting that 4th.

There is a good shot that a new district will be around Fort Bend County, which has a bit of TX-14 but alot of Delay's district too. Caught in the middle of this are some other areas that have had some growth that are also in TX-14, like the Bay Area that was put in Paul's district after the last round of redistricting and is also one of the population centers of the district.

[lynnf]

here's the link to the report:

http://www.electiondataservices.com/images/File/NR_Appor08wTables.pdf

[lynnf]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42741.html

...
In Texas, Republicans are expected to retain control of the legislature and Republican Gov. Rick Perry has a small lead over Democratic challenger Bill White. Even with complete GOP control of redistricting, however, the surge in Hispanic population likely will result in a Democratic gain of one or two of the expected four new seats—including one each in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and in the Houston metropolitan area.

Republicans expect to add a seat in the Austin-San Antonio region and in other rapidly-growing suburban areas. There could be significant redistricting tweaks in heavily Hispanic border districts, which have had large population gains, and in sprawling rural areas where population has been relatively stagnant.

...