NEW POLL: Rand 49 Conway 47

[TCE]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/2010309260041

Discuss.

[Fozz]

F@CK :mad:

[paulpwns]

611 voters is a small sample

[low preference guy]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fc6b082e-60eb-4208-bf85-6991405eff5a

[low preference guy]

Paul is now winning among senior voters. He was losing among them in the last poll.

[low preference guy]

Paul leads by 27 among men in this poll. Down from 34 in the last poll (but we haven't seen how SUSA weighted it).

[Fozz]

It seems like Conway's stupid drug ads are actually working.....SHIT.

Rand needs to go on the offensive on the issue of ABORTION, and refute Conway's stupid out of context soundbites.

[Fozz]

611 voters is a small sample

No it's not.

[low preference guy]

Weight of groups:

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%
Independents: 12%

How do those numbers compare to the 2008 election?

[Brett85]

They have Democrats over Republicans 51% to 36%. Last time it was 47% to 42%. That alone makes a pretty big difference in the results.

[Fozz]

With the gender disparity, it seems like lust is having a significant effect on this race.

[low preference guy]

Paul has a huge lead among opponents of abortion 64% to 31%.

[AuH20]

Let the dolts in D.C. and the union scum dump more money into the race. If Rand can act as a sponge, and pull more money away from Angle's race and some of the other constitutionally minded candidates, then it's all good. I'm not worried.

[paulpwns]

Weight of groups:

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%
Independents: 12%

How do those numbers compare to the 2008 election?

This is why the samplesize matters.

[Adrock]

Cross Posted from the other thread:

"The one thing I can see that is different is their polling sample.

Their last poll = 42% Republican and 47% Democrat

New poll = 36% Republican and 51% Democrat"

[Brett85]

Rand was ahead by over 30 among the 18-30 age group last time, and now he's ahead by 2. I highly doubt if that many young people decided to vote against Rand because of Conway's attacks on the drug issue. And now Rand is doing 8 points better among older voters than he was on the previous poll. So according to this poll the older folks are more libertarian on the drug issue. This poll makes no sense.

[low preference guy]

They have Democrats over Republicans 51% to 36%. Last time it was 47% to 42%. That alone makes a pretty big difference in the results.

With those numbers, Paul would be leading by about 8 points.

Paul: 25*(0.47)+83*(0.42)+50*(0.11)= 52.11%
Conway: 72*(0.47)+12*(0.42)+45*(0.11)=43.83%

[Fozz]

Unfortunately this poll is much closer to Kentucky's actual partisan demographics.

As of June, Kentucky's voters are 57% Democrat, 37% Republican.

[low preference guy]

Unfortunately this poll is much closer to Kentucky's actual partisan demographics.

As of June, Kentucky's voters are 57% Democrat, 37% Republican.

What are the percentages according to the 2008 vote? That's much more relevant.

[Brett85]

Unfortunately this poll is much closer to Kentucky's actual partisan demographics.

As of June, Kentucky's voters are 57% Democrat, 37% Republican.

Doesn't matter. In 2008, which was a bad year for Republicans, it was about 47% Dem to 39% Republican. Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.

[Fozz]

What are the percentages according to the 2008 vote? That's much more relevant.
I don't know how many Rs and Ds in KY voted in 2008.

Of course the state overwhelmingly went for McCain, but you can't compare presidential elections to Senate elections, which always tend to be competitive.

McConnell had a pretty tough time that year.

[Fozz]

Doesn't matter. In 2008, which was a bad year for Republicans, it was about 47% Dem to 39% Republican. Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.

Well that is a relief :cool:

This poll assumes that more Democrats will be voting this year than 2008, percentagewise.

[low preference guy]

I don't know how many Rs and Ds in KY voted in 2008.

Of course the state overwhelmingly went for McCain, but you can't compare presidential elections to Senate elections, which always tend to be competitive.

McConnell had a pretty tough time that year.

You can compare because enthusiasm for Democrats was stronger that year. You can use it as an upper bound to the number of Democrats that will vote this year.

[TCE]

I have no problem believing this poll. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2008

Survey USA was pretty dead-on last time, although Rasmussen was, too. Should be interesting to see if Rasmussen churns out another poll confirming or denying this.

[RP Supporter]

I think the Democrats are too high in this poll. We hear everywhere how Democrats are so unenthused this year,, and Republicans are very enthusiastic. Yet even despite this, Democrats will outnumber Republicans by about 15 percent, and actuatly beat their 2008 turnout?:rolleyes: I don't buy it. In addition, I took a look at all the polls on Wikipedia and besides a poll from a little known pollster (Opinion Research) Conway's previous highest showing against Rand Paul was 45% back in late May in a Survey USA poll. Even if this poll is accurate, Conway still is not at 50%, while Rand is very close to it. Given this environment, I think 47% is probably around Jack's peak.

[Brett85]

I have no problem believing this poll. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2008

Survey USA was pretty dead-on last time, although Rasmussen was, too. Should be interesting to see if Rasmussen churns out another poll confirming or denying this.

I don't believe that Conway gained 12 points in 2 weeks. Nothing major really happened in that time. Even the DSCC poll had Rand gaining a point since their last poll.

[Inkblots]

This could be an outlier, and that seems likely given the 2008 Democrat turnout numbers upthread, which I agree are the absolute upper-bound since that was a Dem wave year.

Nevertheless, this is a good reminder that we need to be working for Rand like he's 10 points down regardless of the polls, right through until the polls close on November 2.

[Bman]

I just keep imagining that Conway says something like "Look, our campaign did an internal poll and the numbers are even. Me and my wife wrote down our vote and put them in a hat. After we calculated the vote we're showing a dead heat at 50-50. We're still trying to figure out how Rand got 50% but regardless, it's a dead heat. DRUGS!!!"

[Libertea Party]

I have no problem believing this poll. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2008

Survey USA was pretty dead-on last time, although Rasmussen was, too. Should be interesting to see if Rasmussen churns out another poll confirming or denying this.

Remember that Survey USA missed out on the increased conservative turnout in the primary. They had Paul up by only 16 and he won by 24 that's a whole 8 points difference from the result on election day only 7 days later. They got the Democratic turnout correct within a point.

So despite the Left's saying Survey USA is over-counting the Republican/conservative turnout this year they were provably wrong by a whopping 8 points with actual election results coming in only a week later in the primary. But they got the Democrat turnout almost perfect.

Given the empirical evidence from the GOP primary this year that I think we can credibly add 4 to 8 points to whatever Survey USA reports. And maybe even more since average general election Republican voters (including conservative Democrats) are more anti-Obama/Democrat than primary voters were anti-Trey Grayson.

[Brett85]

This poll also has Rand ahead 53% to 40% in Eastern Kentucky, and that's a bigger lead than the last time and the best region for Rand in this poll. That's also supposed to be the region where the drug problem is the most severe. This poll seems to be an outlier to me rather than proof that Conway's drug smears are working.

[TCE]

I don't believe that Conway gained 12 points in 2 weeks. Nothing major really happened in that time. Even the DSCC poll had Rand gaining a point since their last poll.

After one is in politics long enough, one starts to get mighty tired of everyone always criticizing pollsters, regardless of who they are. Especially in this case, Survey USA is one of the most reliable and accurate pollsters in the country, what motivation do they have to manipulate the results on purpose? If they do, all of the other pollsters will show very different results and all of a sudden, Survey USA's validity comes into question.

My point is: This is likely reality. I expect Rasmussen to essentially concur this in the next week or two. This race will be decided on the debates. If Rand screws up, he loses. Conway cannot win, but Rand can lose. Rand controls the outcome.

[low preference guy]

After one is in politics long enough, one starts to get mighty tired of everyone always criticizing pollsters, regardless of who they are. Especially in this case, Survey USA is one of the most reliable and accurate pollsters in the country, what motivation do they have to manipulate the results on purpose?

Why did they change how they weight turnout so much? Why was the turnout weight of the previous poll wrong?

[Brett85]

After one is in politics long enough, one starts to get mighty tired of everyone always criticizing pollsters, regardless of who they are. Especially in this case, Survey USA is one of the most reliable and accurate pollsters in the country, what motivation do they have to manipulate the results on purpose? If they do, all of the other pollsters will show very different results and all of a sudden, Survey USA's validity comes into question.

My point is: This is likely reality. I expect Rasmussen to essentially concur this in the next week or two. This race will be decided on the debates. If Rand screws up, he loses. Conway cannot win, but Rand can lose. Rand controls the outcome.

I expect Rand to still be ahead by double digits in the Rasmussen poll that will likely be released next week. You just never see any wild swings in Rasmussen polling. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[TCE]

What did they change how they weight turnout so much? Why was the turnout weight of the previous poll wrong?

I'm not saying it was and I don't know Survey USA's methodology, but I believe the race is tightening. With PPP coming out showing the race closer and now SUSA reversing their previous poll, it is hard to deny that.

TC: I hope you're right and that this is an outlier, but I don't believe it is as crazy as some here think it is. For the most part, Rasmussen has kept pretty close to SUSA in this race.

EDIT: I am more curious about the small number of undecideds. That has been pretty consistent in all of their polls. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010

[Brett85]

I'm not saying it was and I don't know Survey USA's methodology, but I believe the race is tightening. With PPP coming out showing the race closer and now SUSA reversing their previous poll, it is hard to deny that.

TC: I hope you're right and that this is an outlier, but I don't believe it is as crazy as some here think it is. For the most part, Rasmussen has kept pretty close to SUSA in this race.

EDIT: I am more curious about the small number of undecideds. That has been pretty consistent in all of their polls. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010

The PPP poll actually showed Rand gaining ground.

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/9/11/KY/2/UXa34
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_706.pdf

[Adrock]

Rand is most likely 5-7% up. Like he has always said though "We are running like we are ten points down". Lets take that to heart and get to the money bomb, national phone bank and canvassing if you are local.

Eyes on the ball!

[klamath]

Actually I think the trend countywide is swinging toward the democrats. Boxer is expanding her lead over Forina. Zogby is showing a nationwide trend toward the democrats as well. Will this continues through the election is anybodys guess.

[newyearsrevolution08]

dems have plenty of power especially when most higher up offices are held by dems

also many many different businesses and investors want the dems to succeed since it can inturn help secure business for them, their unions, or whatever else it is they are trying to achieve.

same can be said when repubs hold majorities in high up positions

[Matt Collins]

Unfortunately this poll is much closer to Kentucky's actual partisan demographics.

As of June, Kentucky's voters are 57% Democrat, 37% Republican.
Irrelevant because most of the Dems won't be voting.

[Matt Collins]

Remember that Survey USA missed out on the increased conservative turnout in the primary. They had Paul up by only 16 and he won by 24 that's a whole 8 points difference from the result on election day only 7 days later. They got the Democratic turnout correct within a point.

So despite the Left's saying Survey USA is over-counting the Republican/conservative turnout this year they were provably wrong by a whopping 8 points with actual election results coming in only a week later in the primary. But they got the Democrat turnout almost perfect.

Given the empirical evidence from the GOP primary this year that I think we can credibly add 4 to 8 points to whatever Survey USA reports. And maybe even more since average general election Republican voters (including conservative Democrats) are more anti-Obama/Democrat than primary voters were anti-Trey Grayson.Exactly.


I believe the race is tightening.

There is no question about that, but it isn't tightening as much as is being erroneously alleged by this poll.


Rand is most likely 5-7% up. Like he has always said though "We are running like we are ten points down". Lets take that to heart and get to the money bomb, national phone bank and canvassing if you are local.

Eyes on the ball!
Exactly

[Matt Collins]

Actually I think the trend countywide is swinging toward the democrats. Boxer is expanding her lead over Forina. Zogby is showing a nationwide trend toward the democrats as well. Will this continues through the election is anybodys guess.
That stupid ass lame "RINO" crap weak Pledge to America that the Republican Party put out this week didn't help. The People aren't buying what they are shoveling anymore. MANY independents, conservatives, Tea Partiers etc were turned off by it. :mad: :rolleyes:

[boat6868]

Man, my initial reaction was....fu@#! But based on nothing but my gut and the things I hear and feel in my own echo-chamber I still believe Rand will win by at least 15%. Kentucky is where Mccain beat Obama by 16% in a year in which there was tremendous Democrat momentum. In 2008, while voting, the people also had the potential to believe that the Democrats would govern responsibly and that Obama would be a moderate. Now that we have seen Obama and the Dems in action there is no way that any conservative Democrats or Independents can be happy with Obama and the Democrat agenda. How could Kentucky possibly send another vote for the Obama agenda to Washington?...I don't think they will. In this year, with the momentum on the side of conservatives I am convinced that Rand will win by a significant margin. (although obviously this poll gives me no comfort)

I mean come on Kentucky...Jack is a complete TOOL! Please give u Rand Paul!!

[JohnEngland]

You do all realize that with the poll this close, the Democrats will become more enthusiastic about this race and therefore spend more money and use more resources than they otherwise would have, if the gap was around 15 points.

Plus, the media will be encouraged to baselessly attack Rand more.

October is going to be a time of war...

[itshappening]

SUSA have placated Conway and the C-J with the sampling this time

no need to panic about it

[thomas-in-ky]

This poll also has Rand ahead 53% to 40% in Eastern Kentucky, and that's a bigger lead than the last time and the best region for Rand in this poll. That's also supposed to be the region where the drug problem is the most severe. This poll seems to be an outlier to me rather than proof that Conway's drug smears are working.

Well, if you give the poll any credit, that is a good conclusion. But two months ago, this same pollster had Rand losing Eastern Ky by one point. (http://www.whas11.com/community/blogs/political-blog/Paul-leads-Conway-by-eight-in-new-poll-99703184.html) I knew that was baloney.


The glaring anomaly in this recent poll can be found in the North Central KY data.
North Central on 9/2/2010 : Rand 58% Conway 36% (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=621b7962-d125-46d1-b276-45a6b0bc4833/)
North Central on 9/24/2010: Rand 49% Conway 49% (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fc6b082e-60eb-4208-bf85-6991405eff5a)


Should we really believe Rand went from being up 22% in this region to being in a dead heat in this region? I don't. This area is a hotbed of Rand supporters. This is where Bunning pulled it out last general election. This is where Rand thumped Grayson in his own home-territory.

[MRoCkEd]

Run like we're 10 points behind!

[JohnEngland]

Run like we're 10 points behind!

This is worth repeating - and highlighting!

Imagine the score to be: Rand 42 Conway 49

We need the sense of urgency and mission. Complacency has no part in this campaign!

[sailingaway]

I still have to look at the cross tabs. However, IF they didn't change methodology, they didn't run a likely voter MODEL at all, last time. They asked questions about who was likely to vote and the mix they had turned up. I do think complacency might have led some who were fired up with the need to vote decide not to. I also think unions are massively mobilizing and sending mailers and they vastly misrepresent Rand's position on important issues, as do the senior mailings. The NAACP and unions are being stirred from DC to get out their people and they will be there in the end.

Plus, I expected to see a surge of Dems in Yarmouth's district, because progressives actually feel like they have something to lose with him and hadn't previously felt they were in danger of losing him. Plus I think the DEM side has been playing up the 'we could lose the congress!' side to decent effect to some extent, in mobilizing Dem interest in voting. And Rand has sent out some mixed signals in an effort to walk a tightrope. And GQ's article came out the day they were polling and I wouldn't be surprised to see Raimondo's was while they were polling, either. The tightrope walking goes to the people most enthused to vote for Rand, which might show up in the way SUSA polls.

OR they could have done what PPP did and oversample women etc, now that they know who goes for Rand, etc. Rasmussen will help US understand about that, since they have been in tandem with SUSA since the primary. (Though even if Rasmussen is still at 15 ahead, no one but conservatives will buy it. SUSA DOES have a good reputation in Kentucky.)

Well, I guess we have some work left to do, and so does Rand.

[klamath]

That stupid ass lame "RINO" crap weak Pledge to America that the Republican Party put out this week didn't help. The People aren't buying what they are shoveling anymore. MANY independents, conservatives, Tea Partiers etc were turned off by it. :mad: :rolleyes:

Yeaw that was really stupid and weak. They thought they could reuse the old '94 Newt trick. People aren't buying it this time. They should have just kept their mouths shut.

[sailingaway]

Yeaw that was really stupid and weak. They thought they could reuse the old '94 Newt trick. People aren't buying it this time. They should have just kept their mouths shut.

Well, Rand has already responded to that. Too bad his new ad wasn't out a day earlier while they were polling.

I agree they managed to put a MAJOR damper on nationwide enthusiasm to vote, but if Rand acts himself, there is no reason it should apply to him. He's the real thing.

[libertybrewcity]

People. There is still over a month left. Rand hasn't started running the bulk of his ads yet. The organizations backing him will come in with major ad buys in the last week or two. Nothing to worry about here. Polls don't mean shit. It's the campaigning that means something.

[sailingaway]

People. There is still over a month left. Rand hasn't started running the bulk of his ads yet. The organizations backing him will come in with major ad buys in the last week or two. Nothing to worry about here. Polls don't mean shit. It's the campaigning that means something.

It is also GOTV and Organizing for America has mobilized in Kentucky to do that for Jack Conway (who somehow is keeping it under the radar that Obama's campaign arm is doing that.) We need to do it for Rand. GOP efforts are not enough.

[Brett85]

OR they could have done what PPP did and oversample women etc, now that they know who goes for Rand, etc. Rasmussen will help US understand about that, since they have been in tandem with SUSA since the primary. (Though even if Rasmussen is still at 15 ahead, no one but conservatives will buy it. SUSA DOES have a good reputation in Kentucky.

Well, nobody but liberals believe that Jack Conway gained 13 points in three weeks. This poll was simply an outlier. When you look at the crosstabs, the demographics make no sense at all. The poll actually has Rand gaining ground among the 65 and over crowd, which should be the age group that is most turned off by a libertarian position on drug use. The poll showed that Conway gained over 30 POINTS against Rand among the 18-34 age group, and I doubt if that age group is really big into drug enforcement. Also, Rand still GAINED 1 point in the DSCC's own poll, which gave Conway about 13 extra points last time around. I expect Rasmussen to still have Rand ahead double digits next week, and I believe it will be correct.

[sailingaway]

Well, nobody but liberals believe that Jack Conway gained 13 points in three weeks. This poll was simply an outlier. When you look at the crosstabs, the demographics make no sense at all. The poll actually has Rand gaining ground among the 65 and over crowd, which should be the age group that is most turned off by a libertarian position on drug use. The poll showed that Conway gained over 30 POINTS against Rand among the 18-34 age group, and I doubt if that age group is really big into drug enforcement. Also, Rand still GAINED 1 point in the DSCC's own poll, which gave Conway about 13 extra points last time around. I expect Rasmussen to still have Rand ahead double digits next week, and I believe it will be correct.

I'd believe Rasmussen as well, but to be honest, I thought the LAST one might have been a bit of an outlier and even Rand's interviews sounded like his internals were showing more like 9-11 point lead, not 15, if I interpreted what he was saying right. The thing is, the way susa does its likely voter bit it is majorly subject to mood swings.

[ItsTime]

Weight of groups:

Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 36%
Independents: 12%

How do those numbers compare to the 2008 election?

And we are still winning? Conway is done.

[Brett85]

The thing is, the way susa does its likely voter bit it is majorly subject to mood swings.

That's what I was saying. Survey USA always has erratic swings in their polling because of the methodology they use. Rasmussen's polls are always very stable. That's why I don't expect Rand to lose much ground, if any, in Rasmussen's next poll.

[Agorism]

These numbers are roughly similar to 04,06 and 08 turnout. This race be tightening..

[MatM]

And we are still winning? Conway is done.

Exactly, and that would be better Democratic turnout that Obama got. If were still up with Democratic turnout figures, Conway is done. I'm not saying that we should start celebrating our victory already, but this should be viewed as a positive if we really look beneath the numbers.

[specsaregood]

Rand's campaign needs to have GOTV, and poll watchers the same as for the primary.

[sailingaway]

Rand's campaign needs to have GOTV, and poll watchers the same as for the primary.

Yes.