PDA

View Full Version : Tea Party Will Bolt the GOP by 2012




AuH20
09-23-2010, 11:49 AM
Not surprising. It's going to get uglier.

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/09/22/the-republicans-pledge-is-perhaps-the-most-ridiculous-thing-to-come-out-of-washington-since-george-mcclellan/

erowe1
09-23-2010, 11:54 AM
The Tea Party will do the same thing to the GOP that the people who protested the wars under Bush are doing right now.

AuH20
09-23-2010, 11:56 AM
The Tea Party will do the same thing to the GOP that the people who protested the wars under Bush are doing right now.

There is going to be a fracture. 60% of the tea partiers aren't going to accept this nonsense.

Southron
09-23-2010, 12:08 PM
If this pledge is the best they can do then they absolutely deserve it.

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 12:11 PM
They are Tea'd off!!! http://i49.tinypic.com/2ptdm34.jpg

AuH20
09-23-2010, 12:15 PM
They are Tea'd off!!! http://i49.tinypic.com/2ptdm34.jpg

This schism will set up the potential presidential aspirations of one Rand Paul. Rand doesn't have Ron's baggage and is considered pure in the disgruntled conservative eyes. He directly benefits from this ridiculous pledge. I actually hopes he condemns it publicly.

Anti Federalist
09-23-2010, 12:27 PM
They are Tea'd off!!! http://i49.tinypic.com/2ptdm34.jpg

Lolz ;)

newyearsrevolution08
09-23-2010, 12:32 PM
I worry about the tea party

it isn't the exact tea party that we pictured a few years ago.

if palin is on the top then it aint for me

candidate to candidate results and not simply party voting for me.

akforme
09-23-2010, 12:33 PM
the reality is our government has three options: Spend, bankruptcy or change the system. Just cutting spending sounds great but it will send us into bankruptcy, and I don't hear the tea party people (minus RP'ers) who are calling for a system change.

And our government officials will avoid bankruptcy like the plague, so they will spend, and we will have no change until they can't spend anymore.

erowe1
09-23-2010, 12:47 PM
There is going to be a fracture. 60% of the tea partiers aren't going to accept this nonsense.

I wish I could share your optimism. I think more like 90% of the tea partiers will follow suit with Erick Erickson's final sentence in that blog. They'll keep going with what they see as the lesser evil.

AuH20
09-23-2010, 12:53 PM
I wish I could share your optimism. I think more like 90% of the tea partiers will follow suit with Erick Erickson's final sentence in that blog. They'll keep going with what they see as the lesser evil.

Train and nurture our own candidates while we wink and nod. I think that's what Erickson is advocating as well. It's not enough to elect a few senators here and there, but actually go as far as seizing key leadership positions. Basically, wage war against the GOP in the same clandestine way they corrupted the party.

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 01:12 PM
I wish I could share your optimism. I think more like 90% of the tea partiers will follow suit with Erick Erickson's final sentence in that blog. They'll keep going with what they see as the lesser evil.

Which of the Tea party candidates that won in the primaries do you presume they see as the lesser evil?

erowe1
09-23-2010, 01:44 PM
Which of the Tea party candidates that won in the primaries do you presume they see as the lesser evil?

1) Most people who identify with the tea parties will gladly support their Republican candidates whether those are so-called tea party candidates or not (and most are not).

2) In fact, most people who identify with the tea parties don't have a problem with the GOP establishment and often supported establishment candidates over so-called tea party candidates in their GOP primaries.

3) I don't see much difference between the idealism of most of the so-called tea party candidates and the idealism of plenty of other first-time Republican candidates in past years who went on to get corrupted by politics. Nothing is different this time except the numbers.

4) Nothing is different with the voters either. Pseudo-conservatives get mad at the GOP from time to time. But they don't bolt it in large numbers. They haven't bolted yet, they aren't in 2010, and they won't in 2012 or 2014, no matter what the GOP does. Boehner et al crafted this document perfectly to give them just enough to keep them around, but not enough to have to actually change anything in a serious way.

5) In fact, for all Erickson's griping, this pledge looks like something that could easily have been written by one of the tea party candidates that he endorsed.

erowe1
09-23-2010, 01:51 PM
Train and nurture our own candidates while we wink and nod. I think that's what Erickson is advocating as well. It's not enough to elect a few senators here and there, but actually go as far as seizing key leadership positions. Basically, wage war against the GOP in the same clandestine way they corrupted the party.

I'm all for trying that. But let's be honest with ourselves about what that means.

It's unprecedented. It is a myth to suppose that our side used to control the GOP and then the progressives took it over clandestinely. They have always controlled the party leadership without interruption from the very beginning.

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 01:56 PM
1) Most people who identify with the tea parties will gladly support their Republican candidates whether those are so-called tea party candidates or not (and most are not).

2) In fact, most people who identify with the tea parties don't have a problem with the GOP establishment and often supported establishment candidates over so-called tea party candidates in their GOP primaries.

3) I don't see much difference between the idealism of most of the so-called tea party candidates and the idealism of plenty of other first-time Republican candidates in past years who went on to get corrupted by politics. Nothing is different this time except the numbers.

4) Nothing is different with the voters either. Pseudo-conservatives get mad at the GOP from time to time. But they don't bolt it in large numbers. They haven't bolted yet, they aren't in 2010, and they won't in 2012 or 2014, no matter what the GOP does. Boehner et al crafted this document perfectly to give them just enough to keep them around, but not enough to have to actually change anything in a serious way.

5) In fact, for all Erickson's griping, this pledge looks like something that could easily have been written by one of the tea party candidates that he endorsed.

You would be mistaken about most of what you wrote. The Tea Party appears to be rejecting the so-called "Pledge", and they are backing up their own candidates all across this country with candidates that are bucking the GOP establishment. There may be Teas smattered here and there that follow in lock-step with the GOP, but that is the exception not the rule.

erowe1
09-23-2010, 02:01 PM
You would be mistaken about most of what you wrote. The Tea Party appears to be rejecting the so-called "Pledge", and they are backing up their own candidates all across this country. There may be Teas smattered here and there that follow in lock-step with the GOP, but that is the exception not the rule.

Sorry. I don't buy that. Here's where things stood in Indiana back in April.
http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/04/29/in-senate-race-coats-claims-poll-position/
The fact that that's representative of most of the country is evidenced by how few tea party candidates who beat establishment candidates there are, and how close to the establishment even some of these tea party candidates themselves are.

There are some vocal tea partiers who get the press, but who don't necessarily accurately represent the people they claim to. And even they, for the most part, won't leave the GOP. Erick Erickson is about as anti-establishment as the typical tea partier. I think his sentiments here go about as far as most of those who are rejecting this pledge go.

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 02:03 PM
Sorry. I don't buy that. Here's where things stood in Indiana back in April.
http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/04/29/in-senate-race-coats-claims-poll-position/
There are some vocal tea partiers who get the press, but who don't necessarily accurately represent the people they claim to. And even they, for the most part, they won't leave the GOP.

April? That was a while back. Can't speak for Indiana but in southern cali, the tea is brewing.....

anaconda
09-23-2010, 02:05 PM
I wish I could share your optimism. I think more like 90% of the tea partiers will follow suit with Erick Erickson's final sentence in that blog. They'll keep going with what they see as the lesser evil.

It is our job and Ron Paul's job to bring as many of these Tea Partiers over to our side and refuse to vote for a GOP party elite approved candidate. Hopefully that number will be far less than 90%. I'm surprised Dr. Paul isn't making a bigger issue of this in the course of his MSM interviews. He should be hammering home that the tea partiers are getting fooled into voting for business as usual.

erowe1
09-23-2010, 02:08 PM
April? That was a while back. Can't speak for Indiana but in southern cali, the tea is brewing.....

Our primary was in early May, so an April poll was about as recent as they get. And the people who identified with the tea party then are the same people who do now. Also, it was a statewide poll, so it wasn't affected by some single local tea party group that might be closer to the establishment than others.

If you're right about SoCal (and I'm skeptical that you are), the your area is a fluke. If you don't believe me, then find the nationwide poll where Ron Paul as a presidential candidate for 2012 does better than 10% with likely Republican voters.

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 02:09 PM
It is our job and Ron Paul's job to bring as many of these Tea Partiers over to our side and refuse to vote for a GOP party elite approved candidate. Hopefully that number will be far less than 90%. I'm surprised Dr. Paul isn't making a bigger issue of this in the course of his MSM interviews. He should be hammering home that the tea partiers are getting fooled into voting for business as usual.

What business as usual are you referring? The Tea Party candidates are running against the GOP establishment. Haven't you been paying attention to the upsets?

LibertyMage
09-23-2010, 02:12 PM
I have pointed out many times that we need to be putting our leadership in front of the Tea Party instead of letting the neocons do it. If we want to accomplish this, we should be creating a "Tea Party Contract" and asking them to sign it. That way, we set the agenda.

Who is going to make that happen?

Deborah K
09-23-2010, 02:13 PM
Our primary was in May. And the people who identified with the tea party then are the same people who do now.

If you're right about SoCal (and I'm skeptical that you are), the your area is a fluke. If you don't believe me, then find the nationwide poll where Ron Paul as a presidential candidate for 2012 does better than 10% with likely Republican voters.

Our movement and the Tea movement are not the same, they need to be merged. My own tea party isn't there yet either, but they are moving in that direction. We have one meeting a month at the local theatre and hundreds show up. We have guest speakers who talk about gun rights, survival, gov't expansion, etc.

Romulus
09-23-2010, 02:15 PM
I have pointed out many times that we need to be putting our leadership in front of the Tea Party instead of letting the neocons do it. If we want to accomplish this, we should be creating a "Tea Party Contract" and asking them to sign it. That way, we set the agenda.

Who is going to make that happen?

*nods* We ought to be controlling the narrative. Its the GOP that needs the Tea party, not the other way around.

I see the Tea party split now. 50% Liberty 50% NeoCon GOP

Like your sig says.. its fertile ground. Many of us were once Neocons before waking up.

Imperial
09-23-2010, 04:19 PM
Nate Silver probably has the best analysis of this. You are going to need to have elected Tea Partiers bolt the Republicans to really set up a viable Tea Party.

Silver doesn't have a set time for when that happens, if it even does. However, I would say it has to be after 2012. In 2010 some Tea Partiers are going to win office. In 2012 the Tea Party will be duking it out in the primaries, with massive media wars over "Who is the Tea Party candidate?"

So I don't think you see a Tea Party revolt until 2014. It all depends who the GOP nominates for the presidency though as to if that even happens.

nobody's_hero
09-23-2010, 05:21 PM
I'm going to a "conservative" rally on October 2nd in my hometown. I somehow got an invite (?) The republican party has been sending me junk mail asking for money, and I'm not even a member. The invite says that the rally is open to "ALL GOP, TEA PARTY, CONSERVATIVES, AND INDEPENDENTS".

I won't be sending any $$$ to the same-old-same-old Republicans that Georgia's GOP is sending back to represent them this year (I've got nothing left for Senator Isakson of Georgia that he hasn't already distributed via government to Wall Street). Nationally, our state is being left behind. At least be grateful that there are people in other states who are at least trying some different candidates, even if they don't agree with us entirely. Georgia GOP wants to keep all of its Bush-era incumbents. Former Congressman-career politician Nathan Deal, who left office early on the verge of an ethics probe rather than confront the charges, somehow made the nominee for GOP candidate for Governor [fantastic choice! I hope he goes down in flames, but I doubt it].

So, yeah, I'm gonna go to this rally. I'm going to park up front so that everyone can see my John Monds for Governor bumper sticker next to my Constitution bumper sticker. I'm going to try to pry a bit on the only somewhat promising candidate the GOP has on the ticket this year—Mike Keown, who is challenging Democrat Sanford Bishop—if they are taking questions. He may get my vote, but the only thing I don't like about him so far (that I know of) is his stance on the War on Terror. That seems to be a common hang-up for republicans to address that issue with an open mind, unfortunately.

I'll either get the crowd thinking about some things in a different light, or I'll get kicked out.

I would encourage everyone here to go out to these tea party events and make themselves visible. You don't have to agree with everyone there, but you might just be denying them the chance to agree with you. We've got nothing to lose.

anaconda
09-25-2010, 05:23 AM
What business as usual are you referring? The Tea Party candidates are running against the GOP establishment. Haven't you been paying attention to the upsets?

I have indeed been paying attention. I was referring to the presidential vote in 2012.

Having said that, I am not convinced that the "Tea Party" candidates in these 2010 midterm elections are sufficiently anti-establishment to end the fed, the hegemony of the military-industrial complex, and the police state.

SilentBull
09-25-2010, 06:07 AM
I see the Tea party split now. 50% Liberty 50% NeoCon GOP


Based on how many of the "tea partiers" have said they would vote for Romney or Palin over Paul, I think it's safe to say it's more like 20% liberty, 80% NeoCon.

anaconda
09-26-2010, 01:51 AM
Based on how many of the "tea partiers" have said they would vote for Romney or Palin over Paul, I think it's safe to say it's more like 20% liberty, 80% NeoCon.

I'm afraid this is closer to the truth than the 50-50 estimate. HOWEVER, it is not because of neocon ideology. They are just brainwashed. They just need to turn the corner on seeing that war is a corporatist racket and that their patriotic impulses have been taken advantage of for decades. Then there will be a full scale outrage and regime change in the U.S. That is what we are working successfully toward and we are making progress with every passing week.