We are going to win the DC primary

[Bradley in DC]

I've said this before and I'm more certain now. Today I went to the board of elections to get my updated data request finalized for the voter rolls of all Republicans, Independents and minor parties. [Edit: we'll have to do another one when the registration cut off ends.] We also have an unresolved question of gender parity of delegate candidates [RNC by-law Rule 14(d)] that I won't get into now.

Four of us from the Meetup group went to the DC GOP meeting tonight. Probably about twenty of us there. There was someone from the McCain and Giuliani campaigns circulating ballot petitions. No, we don't have ours yet, but we will soon. Yes, we signed theirs as an act of collegiality. When we went around the room and introduced ourselves, all four of us identified ourselves as Ron Paul supporters. We were the only ones identifying with a candidate and the only one with a "contingent."

B. K. spoke first, mentioned our getting delegate candidates for Dr. Paul. I was next (after some other people) and spoke of my background in Ohio politics, etc. (practicing my stump speech for RNC National Committeeman ;) ), etc., and mentioned Ron Paul (the current RNC National Committeeman who was running the meeting gave a quick smirk). A few more people then James, who also identified himself as a Ron Paul supporter and as a new Republican. The attitude of the guy running the meeting changed 180 degrees: Ron Paul is bringing new people into the party. He even questioned him on that to make sure he got it right. A few more people and then Nancy as another Ron Paul supporter. Another guy I didn't recognize came late missing our introductions (and left early) but identified himself as "a Constitutionalist." :) [note to self, find out who he was ;) ]

I made friends with the man sitting next to me, who, it turns out, has the best lists of black Republicans in the country and offered to send out something from me about Ron Paul to his list members in DC soliciting the delegate candidates (not that I won't be able to work in a short sales pitch!).

The meeting was to get feedback from us on issues of concern. Our members were substantive in recommendations that became the backbone of the "what are we going to take out of this meeting" that others were contributing to. Upshot: Ron Paul = new people, new ideas, new blood. People were very happy to have us there. Everyone talked afterwards socially for a few minutes.

Outside, the four of us (who sat separately) came together. One anecdote: a guy said he liked Ron Paul but gave the "I don't think he can win line" and then added himself that Dr. Paul is probably the best one to beat Hillary since he appeals to so many people. All four of us responded: "We are going to win the DC primary, we're motivated." "We're going to win DC, we've got the people." "We're going to win DC, we have a plan." "We are going to win DC , we're got the money." I think it made a huge impression on those around us. Another guy commented, "Well, he's got the people out there for him."

[Bradley in DC]

We are going to win DC. Here's how. Several of us are contributing our different talents. A few of us with different political experiences are working on how to target our energies. A statistician translated that into ones and zeros and defined our four degrees of targeted "super voters," and a database volunteer is working wonders making walking lists for our members for their own precincts and then making a ranking of all of the precincts in DC from the highest capita of "super voters" to least so we'll make the most efficient use of our time and resources.

(We need volunteers--supporters from MD, VA and out of towners are most welcome to come help in our door-to-door and other activities.)

After analyzing 12 years of voting histories, registration numbers, etc., we've agreed on an estimated 3,000 likely voter turnout for our primary. We get 16 delegates to the convention. I'm pretty sure our votes here count more than anywhere else in a voter per delegate ratio.

There are about 500 LP votes in DC. We're working actively to get them to switch party registration from generic "minor party" to Republican to vote in our primary. I requested in our data request from the board of elections the "minor party" registrations and am working on that sales pitch (Dr. Paul's leadership with ballot access, etc. I remember a meeting in the Congressional office with the LP, Greens, Reform, Lenora Fulani, and others all there together to support Dr. Paul's agenda).

Another member of our group agreed today to work with the Arab student associations in DC to recruit people to register Republican to vote for Dr. Paul. I got a very favorable response when I initially contacted them: it's Islamo-fascism week at a major university here right now. They wanted Dr. Paul to speak.

[Edit, another local area volunteer sent me info for a pro-life targeted project--thanks!]

We have identified the "super voters" (these are actually broken down into four degrees of likeliness to vote) who will all be contacted by us (we may hit you all up for calling, etc.). By going door-to-door early, we also hope identify our supporters among them in addition to our LP, Arab, student and other new recruits. We will have our GOTV flushing project well rehearsed by the time the primary comes.

We are going to win the DC primary. :)

[DrNoZone]

Wow, great work! I wish we had more supporters out there doing the work you 4 are doing.

[Bradley in DC]

Wow, great work! I wish we had more supporters out there doing the work you 4 are doing.

Thanks. It's a lot more than four of us that are going to win the primary. The aim was to reach out to the different talents of all of our members and utilize them as best we could.

[pennycat]

Going to Executive Committee's is very important for all Paul supporters. We really can take over the Republican party if everyone would attend. It's fun and a good learning experience.

D.C. going for Ron Paul? Now that would be a crowning achievement;-) Had family there many years ago. It can be done!

[me3]

Great job!

[Stealth4]

Very nice. Good job.

Your ahead of where we are in VA but hopefully it all comes togther.

A friend and I have been attending local GOP meetings. I volunteered for a local campaign one night. I hope its making a positive impression.

[klamath]

All you had to do is get two democrats to cross over and you have the republican vote tied up in DC.:D

No seriously, great job.

[Zydeco]

Brad is the secret weapon of D.C. Ron Paul circles.

There might be something about monetary policy Brad doesn't know, but we haven't found it yet.

[Bradley in DC]

All you had to do is get two democrats to cross over and you have the republican vote tied up in DC.:D

No seriously, great job.

We've got way more than two already! :p

[cac1963]

That's great news, and congratulations on your hard work and teambuilding there. As some know I was an active Dean supporter in 2004, and this particular episode in the 2008 election is one of those particularly glaring nuggets paralleling Dean's campaign that I'm compelled to address. Somewhat awkwardly, in fact, because I really don't know how to address it.

How many people here are aware that Dean trounced everybody in the 2004 DC primary, with something like 45% of the vote in a field of 7 other candidates? Even though the 2004 DC primary was actually the first in the nation (occurring in January before the Iowa caucuses), how many people out there heard about it, and how much of an impact did it have on the Iowa caucuses as a momentum builder for Dean?

The reason it's awkward to discuss is because I don't want to dampen anybody's efforts or spirits or motivation. But I don't know where to put it in perspective, seeing as how this nugget of history is about to repeat itself.

[Zydeco]

That's great news, and congratulations on your hard work and teambuilding there. As some know I was an active Dean supporter in 2004, and this particular episode in the 2008 election is one of those particularly glaring nuggets paralleling Dean's campaign that I'm compelled to address. Somewhat awkwardly, in fact, because I really don't know how to address it.

How many people here are aware that Dean trounced everybody in the 2004 DC primary, with something like 45% of the vote in a field of 7 other candidates? Even though the 2004 DC primary was actually the first in the nation (occurring in January before the Iowa caucuses), how many people out there heard about it, and how much of an impact did it have on the Iowa caucuses as a momentum builder for Dean?

The reason it's awkward to discuss is because I don't want to dampen anybody's efforts or spirits or motivation. But I don't know where to put it in perspective, seeing as how this nugget of history is about to repeat itself.

Dean != Paul

[reaver]

I think that the RNC is wanting to pull for Paul because of the mass appeal to apathetic Americans.

[kylejack]

What's with the women thing? What ridiculous voting law.

[cujothekitten]

Oh man this is exciting!

[reaver]

Dean != Paul

Sorry but Dean had media support Paul could only dream of. Paul has grassroot support Dean dreamt of. When Dean was at his highest point I wrote a paper titled "the rise and fall of Howard Dean" my teacher was a lib. that laughed. Then gave me an A.

[cac1963]

Dean != Paul

As one who lived through the heartbreak of Dean's campaign, there are tremendous similarities between the two. Ignoring them is probably the worst thing Paul's camp could do, if for no other reason than to approach each step in the process with a more solid footing based in part on Dean's mistakes.

[Bradley in DC]

That's great news, and congratulations on your hard work and teambuilding there. As some know I was an active Dean supporter in 2004, and this particular episode in the 2008 election is one of those particularly glaring nuggets paralleling Dean's campaign that I'm compelled to address. Somewhat awkwardly, in fact, because I really don't know how to address it.

How many people here are aware that Dean trounced everybody in the 2004 DC primary, with something like 45% of the vote in a field of 7 other candidates? Even though the 2004 DC primary was actually the first in the nation (occurring in January before the Iowa caucuses), how many people out there heard about it, and how much of an impact did it have on the Iowa caucuses as a momentum builder for Dean?

The reason it's awkward to discuss is because I don't want to dampen anybody's efforts or spirits or motivation. But I don't know where to put it in perspective, seeing as how this nugget of history is about to repeat itself.

Thanks for bringing it up, but it's a totally different situation. Most of the other Dems then had aggreed not to contest the DC primary over concerns of upsetting the rules about preserving NH's place so many days before another primary. The best analogy would be Michigan now where I think all but Hillary have bowed out.

[Bradley in DC]

What's with the women thing? What ridiculous voting law.

The campaign will have to comply not only with state election law but also the RNC by-laws that govern the party and specifically run the convention.

http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?AboutType=4

This is the rule generating concern:
RULE NO. 14
Participation
(a) The Republican National Committee shall assist the states in their efforts to inform all citizens as to how they may participate in delegate selection procedures. The states, in cooperation with the Republican National Committee, shall prepare instructive material on delegate selection methods and make it available for distribution.

(b) Participation in a Republican primary, caucus, or any meeting or convention held for the purpose of selecting delegates and alternate delegates to a county, district, state, or national convention shall in no way be abridged for reasons of sex, race, religion, color, age, or national origin. The Republican National Committee and the Republican state committee or governing committee of each state shall take positive action to achieve the broadest possible participation by men and women, young people, minority and heritage groups, senior citizens, and all other citizens in the delegate selection process.

(c) Unless otherwise provided by the laws of the state in which the election occurs, in those states where delegates and alternate delegates are elected through the convention system or a combination of convention and primary systems, the precinct, ward, township, or county meetings shall be open meetings and all citizens who are qualified shall be urged to participate.


(d) Each state shall endeavor to have equal representation of men and women in its delegation to the Republican National Convention.

(e) The provisions of these rules are not intended to be the basis of any kind of quota system.

[cac1963]

I think that the RNC is wanting to pull for Paul because of the mass appeal to apathetic Americans.

I wish I shared your enthusiasm about that. Time will tell I suppose, but I'm inclined to believe the RNC will do anything to get rid of Paul. Witness the closed primary shenanigans. Also, you don't see the media trumpeting any straw poll numbers through this whole cycle, so what reasons do we have to expect that the public will learn of Paul's victory in the DC primary?

[ksuguy]

I think you have a good chance. Most of the DC residents are democrats, so you only need a small number of people to win the republican nomination. Also, I'll bet that most of the neocon bush loving republicans in the area don't actually live in the district. They are probably all out in the Virginia or Maryland suburbs.

Of course, you are probably more familiar with the demographics than I am since you actually live there.

[Bradley in DC]

haha I learn something new every day, DC has a primary, goodjob Bradley.

Hey, yeah, I was going to hit up you and Nefertiti to help with our Arab and Muslim pitches. Would you mind PMing me your email address for me to share with the guy who stepped forward for that project?

[csen]

California is no longer winner-take-all, so you can get delegates by winning your district. Ron Paul was the top Republican fundraiser in San Francisco in Q3, and I fully expect strong showings all around the Bay Area on February 5th.

[kylejack]

California is no longer winner-take-all, so you can get delegates by winning your district. Ron Paul was the top Republican fundraiser in San Francisco in Q3, and I fully expect strong showings all around the Bay Area on February 5th.
California is winner take all.

[Primbs]

How is Virginia doing? I signed the petition for Ron Paul but want to find out if we need more help. I was in DC last night and we talked to five guys from Virginia who had not signed the petition yet.

Are we almost done with the petitions?

[chowda]

per capita, we're doing very well in DC... except in the last 24 hours for some reason :)

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html

[csen]

California is winner take all.

Not for the primaries. Check it out:

http://race42008.com/2007/02/18/2008-california-republican-primary-will-no-longer-be-winner-take-all/

The California Republican Party has modified its rules, changing the Golden State’s presidential primary from a winner-take-all contest to one where most of the 173 available Republican delegates to the party’s national presidential nominating convention will be chosen by winner-take-all within congressional districts. The new rules were actually in effect for the first time during the 2004 California Republican presidential primary, but few folks noticed because President George W. Bush was the only significant GOP candidate on the ballot.

[Bradley in DC]

per capita, we're doing very well in DC... except in the last 24 hours for some reason :)

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/donors.html

Well, I was at the press conference this morning and saw other supporters, we had informal "strategery" meetings in person and on the phone and by email after that, then board of elections data request, then local DC GOP meeting with other supporters....

[kylejack]

Not for the primaries. Check it out:

http://race42008.com/2007/02/18/2008-california-republican-primary-will-no-longer-be-winner-take-all/

The California Republican Party has modified its rules, changing the Golden State’s presidential primary from a winner-take-all contest to one where most of the 173 available Republican delegates to the party’s national presidential nominating convention will be chosen by winner-take-all within congressional districts. The new rules were actually in effect for the first time during the 2004 California Republican presidential primary, but few folks noticed because President George W. Bush was the only significant GOP candidate on the ballot.

Not correct, California is winner take all.

[csen]

Not correct, California is winner take all.

Please cite your source.

[Primbs]

Isn't it winner take all by congressional district?

If it is, Ron Paul could win some congressional districts.

[csen]

Isn't it winner take all by congressional district?

If it is, Ron Paul could win some congressional districts.

You got it.

[Bradley in DC]

Oh yeah, and as of today also, a few local guys are starting a Gays & Lesbians for Ron Paul group.

[kylejack]

Please cite your source.

Yeah, obviously I was really confused. Thanks.

[Primbs]

I worked in California politics so I know some districts could be won by Paul with the right strategy. The state has over fifty congressional districts from inner city to farming regions to the mountains and beaches. Some areas are very conservative and some are very libertarian.

[jpa]

Not correct, California is winner take all.

No, the primary is not. The general election will be winner take all. The GOP primary is district by district, 3 delegates for the winner.

[Taco John]

That's great news, and congratulations on your hard work and teambuilding there. As some know I was an active Dean supporter in 2004, and this particular episode in the 2008 election is one of those particularly glaring nuggets paralleling Dean's campaign that I'm compelled to address. Somewhat awkwardly, in fact, because I really don't know how to address it.

How many people here are aware that Dean trounced everybody in the 2004 DC primary, with something like 45% of the vote in a field of 7 other candidates? Even though the 2004 DC primary was actually the first in the nation (occurring in January before the Iowa caucuses), how many people out there heard about it, and how much of an impact did it have on the Iowa caucuses as a momentum builder for Dean?

The reason it's awkward to discuss is because I don't want to dampen anybody's efforts or spirits or motivation. But I don't know where to put it in perspective, seeing as how this nugget of history is about to repeat itself.



I don't see a connection between Iowa and DC. Not sure why it's important that there be one?

[bbachtung]

DC could serve as a model for some of California's gerrymandered Democratic congressional districts -- the ones with 70-80% registered Democrats where the Republicans rarely even run a candidate.

[Primbs]

DC could be very important this year.

[csen]

If anyone has a spreadsheet mapping zip codes to California Congressional districts I'd love to do a district-by-district fundraising comparison for all the candidates. Just need the data.

[Bradley in DC]

How is Virginia doing? I signed the petition for Ron Paul but want to find out if we need more help. I was in DC last night and we talked to five guys from Virginia who had not signed the petition yet.

Are we almost done with the petitions?

I don't have any real news on Virginia's ballot petitioning. It was good meeting you last night. The boys were from Fairfax or Loudon, I think, if that helps. :o

[DjLoTi]

This is how we win elections

[Primbs]

I met the Ron Paul guys at the Virginia state fair who have been in politics for awhile.

I was just curious about their progress.

[katao]

Good stuff. I believe you will. How did you identify the "super voters" and what were the four classifications you used?

[johngr]

Oh yeah, and as of today also, a few local guys are starting a Gays & Lesbians for Ron Paul group.

How come there's not a straight white men for Ron Paul group. It seems a special opprobrium is reserved for such a group that Jews for, African Americans for and X for don't receive. Is it hypocritical to support gays, jews, etc for Ron Paul? Such opprobrium coupled with the free existence of and formation of other groups without opprobrium indicate that the political concerns of such a group are subordinate to those of the other groups. This is not a good position to be in when the members of such a group become the minority.

[Bradley in DC]

So, I just got an email from the guy who identified himself publicly at last night's DC GOP meeting as "a Constitutionalist." He replied to my Meetup advisory email to let me know this. So, I can safely say that there were five identified Ron Paul supporters from our Meetup Group there for about 25% of the total.

[Bradley in DC]

Last night was the meeting of the Republican Central Committee or something like that--the ones who run the party (I don't think any of our people are there). Four of us went. At the very start of the meeting (so I was told, I got there just a few minutes late), they acknowledged that Ron Paul supporters were there and reminded us/everyone that it was a meeting for them, not us.

Nothing too terribly exciting. I did learn that Rudy and McCain are still circulating their ballot petitions to get signatures and that Mitt has started now too. All of them have a head start over us--we still can't find 32 people who were registered Republicans before September to act as delegate candidates and alternate delegate candidates. :(

We needed seven more people going into the meeting. At the end of the meeting, I announced I was the DC ballot organizer for Ron Paul, etc. After the meeting, I was approached by the guy that the four of us met at the last ward townhall meeting when all of us told him we were going to win the primary. Long story short, he asked me if he could be on our slate! Wahoo! One more down! Later last night, one volunteer extraordinaire, B. K., got another precinct walking list (she had already finished her own) and started cold calling the registered Republicans and got another one to join our slate. Wahoo again! Five more to go!

Oh, yeah, I also talked with the head of the DC YRs who agreed to forward a request of mine to his list. Vamos a ver.

[speciallyblend]

Colorado just got a database to reach all parties with numbers and precints and the breakdown.IT's Happening,im gonna start calling voters in our 3 counties soon,we really need to start some phone banks for each state with volunteers. This has to be in every meet up groups plan across the nation. WE NEED STATEWIDE PHONE BANKS,THEN COUNTY WIDE ,then down to the local level;)

[Bradley in DC]

Colorado just got a database to reach all parties with numbers and precints and the breakdown.IT's Happening,im gonna start calling voters in our 3 counties soon,we really need to start some phone banks for each state with volunteers. This has to be in every meet up groups plan across the nation. WE NEED STATEWIDE PHONE BANKS,THEN COUNTY WIDE ,then down to the local level;)

Excellent! Just make it happen, don't worry if it starts at the top or bottom. Actually, having neighbors call neighbors is usually the most effective. And getting the data from different states (county, state, etc.) is different in different states.

[me3]

We needed seven more people going into the meeting. At the end of the meeting, I announced I was the DC ballot organizer for Ron Paul, etc. After the meeting, I was approached by the guy that the four of us met at the last ward townhall meeting when all of us told him we were going to win the primary. Long story short, he asked me if he could be on our slate! Wahoo! One more down! Later last night, one volunteer extraordinaire, B. K., got another precinct walking list (she had already finished her own) and started cold calling the registered Republicans and got another one to join our slate. Wahoo again! Five more to go!
Great work Bradley!

[kylejack]

Four of us from the Meetup group went to the DC GOP meeting tonight. Probably about twenty of us there. There was someone from the McCain and Giuliani campaigns circulating ballot petitions. No, we don't have ours yet, but we will soon. Yes, we signed theirs as an act of collegiality.
Bradley, here in Texas, signing one politicians ballot means you can't sign for another politician. Is it not the same up there? I couldn't sign Kinky Friedman's ballot because I needed to sign for the LP candidate.

[Bradley in DC]

Bradley, here in Texas, signing one politicians ballot means you can't sign for another politician. Is it not the same up there? I couldn't sign Kinky Friedman's ballot because I needed to sign for the LP candidate.

No, not at all. In fact there are so few of us in DC (Republicans), that it would be very rude not to sign everyone's. Oh, wait, I think you're mixing issues. We're talking about the Republican primary ballot petitioning (Texas is NOT a straight primary state): only Republicans can sign the ballot petitions, but any Republican can sign any and all of the Republican ballot petitions.

According to the DC Board of Election and Ethics, there are nearly 30,000 of us in all of DC, but when we've been going door-to-door or calling, we find that probably only about a third of the list is good. It's very difficult to get someone off the voter rolls in DC, and it's a pretty transient city (among the Republican population certainly).

[kylejack]

Yes, we must be. This was signatures that needed to be collected for general election ballot access for the governor's race (and boy was it a wild race, 1 D, 1 R, 1 L, and two significant I's). Rick Perry scraped by with a mere 38% plurality.

[Meatwasp]

Good Job Bradley. We need more like you

[Bradley in DC]

Yes, we must be. This was signatures that needed to be collected for general election ballot access for the governor's race (and boy was it a wild race, 1 D, 1 R, 1 L, and two significant I's). Rick Perry scraped by with a mere 38% plurality.

Of course, every state is different, but general elections and primary elections are two totally different animals.

[Bradley in DC]

Good Job Bradley. We need more like you

Thanks. You can help! Go to your state's section in the primary subforum, copy the information from 2004, paste it into an email to your state GOP and state board of elections [remind them of RNC by-law 14 (a) (http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?AboutType=4&Section=16)] and ask them for updated version for 2008. When you get an answer, please post it in the subforum and share with everyone else.

[Adamsa]

You rock!

[slantedview]

Nice post :)