Two Important Polls: Joe Miller with a solid lead in AK, DioGuardi only down 10 in NY

[MRoCkEd]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/alaska/election_2010_alaska_senate

Joe Miller (R) 42%
Scott McAdams (D) 25%
Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) 27%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_special_senate_election

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 49%
Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

[parocks]

Joe Dioguardi is Kara DioGuardi of American Idol's dad.

That could be relevant. More people see her every week on tv than almost anyone else. I would think "very famous well liked pretty woman tv star signer
will sell the Dioguardi message as well as old and formerly at least somewhat corrupt ex politician. DioGuardi I think has a man of the people type charm, based on the still photos I've seen of him. But, cmon, just have her "be" the candidate in the commercials. try it once. do as much as you can special with her.

Honestly, she wins easier than her dad in this climate.

Bring in 19 or Fremantle or whoever it is that knows how to do that show.
Maybe a AI type show? Buy an hour. Or 19, Fremantle, might
be able to work something out.




http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/alaska/election_2010_alaska_senate

Joe Miller (R) 42%
Scott McAdams (D) 25%
Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) 27%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_special_senate_election

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 49%
Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

[MRoCkEd]

I agree that Kara should be in his TV ads, and also stump for him in NYC.

[parocks]

That's a weird Miller result.

I don't know how write ins usually do.

Christine got 4.3% in 2006.

27% write in. I think that'll be much lower.

But after that, who knows?

Somebody knows if those are good for Miller. Obviously he should just crush,
so if those results indicate that Millers gonna crush, then those are the expected results.

[parocks]

It was a mistake for Reid to mention how hot he thought Gilli was. If they want to make this about hotness, about starpower, then Kara wins. If DioGuardi wins, there's an American Idol block of 2 with Scott Brown. Hey, maybe Scott Brown brings Ayla to the tv show.


I agree that Kara should be in his TV ads, and also stump for him in NYC.

[akforme]

If I vote I'm thinking of writing in Joe Miller just to fuck with them.

[Jeremy]

I'm willing to bet Lisa Murkowski's numbers are much lower. The poll is different than the ballot. You can't ask the person if they want to "write in Lisa Murkowski" because now you're giving them a name. The actual ballot has no name. They should ask if they want to write in someone and then count everyone who said Lisa Murkowski.

[MRoCkEd]

//

[Imperial]

That's a weird Miller result.

I don't know how write ins usually do.

Christine got 4.3% in 2006.

27% write in. I think that'll be much lower.

But after that, who knows?

Somebody knows if those are good for Miller. Obviously he should just crush,
so if those results indicate that Millers gonna crush, then those are the expected results.

In 2006 Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Houston city-councillor, won 42% of the vote in the race to succeed Tom Delay as a write-in. However, that was a safe Republican district, and the Secretary of State did not take a very friendly approach to mispellings. The Democrat ended up winning with a little over 50% of the vote.

In Alaska, the Secretary of State has said they will be very holistic in judging write-in votes. So if somebody puts maybe "Lisa M" it will likely be judged as a vote for her. Intent is going to be the name of the game.

But it is very tricky to poll a write-in candidate. You can't just say "would you vote for Murkowski as a writein" as that still offers it as an option when the voter has to remember that fact in the voting booth.

Zogby (in one of their non-shitty polls) did it right in Houston in 2006. They first asked, "Will you vote for the Demccrat X, Libertarian Y, or a write-in candidate?"

Then if they selected a writein candidate, they were asked if it was the Republican writein. It still isnt perfect, but it is better than nothing. It looks like Rasmussen took a similar approach to the poll.

[South Park Fan]

I think Rasmussen used the same methodology in their poll.

Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned.

[low preference guy]

can you change your name temporarily to Joe Smith if you are running as a write-in?