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View Full Version : 538: Lawson up to 31% chance of takeover




Epic
09-17-2010, 03:53 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/17/house-forecast-update-embracing-the-uncertainty/#more-1099

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house/north-carolina/4

Projected vote:

Price 51
Lawson 47

69% Price keeps it
31% Lawson takes over

MRoCkEd
09-17-2010, 03:55 PM
This is huge!

Kludge
09-17-2010, 04:04 PM
I've been very skeptical of Lawson's chances, but this projection changes things.

It's important to keep in mind that Price has roughly 6x as much cash on hand as Lawson (300k to BJ's 50k, Price having spent only a bit over half of what he's raised so far) and he'll likely use this to shift momentum as this month progresses.

There's now clearly a good potential Lawson can win and it may be worth considering an emergency money bomb for him. It isn't too late.

Michigan11
09-17-2010, 04:05 PM
I've been very skeptical of Lawson's chances, but this projection changes things.

It's important to keep in mind that Price has roughly 6x as much cash on hand as Lawson (300k to BJ's 50k, Price having spent only a bit over half of what he's raised so far) and he'll likely use this to shift momentum as this month progresses.

There's now clearly a good potential Lawson can win and it may be worth considering an emergency money bomb for him. It isn't too late.

Agreed! We should give all we can today and plan another moneybomb ASAP.

RonPaulFanInGA
09-17-2010, 04:05 PM
Poor Lawson got that $550,000 in the wrong year (2008).

Would much rather have had Ron Paul promote Lawson today instead of Amash. Amash's race is all but a done-deal.

Jeremy
09-17-2010, 04:08 PM
Compare this to Jack Conway's 17%.

JamesButabi
09-17-2010, 04:27 PM
Hes doing something of a moneybomb sorts right now. Ive been trying to promote it all day. Hes aiming for 225k by Oct 1st and the ticker is at $156,000. He gained about 15,000 today I would guess.

Michigan11
09-17-2010, 04:32 PM
Everybody find a credit card something with numbers on it and donate and push it to the limit