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View Full Version : B.J. Lawson Has One-in-Four Chance of Victory




South Park Fan
09-10-2010, 04:47 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts/#more-805

North Carolina's 4th District as listed as having a 25% chance of going Republican. This would have been unimaginable months ago, but B.J. Lawson has a good chance of winning!

BuddyRey
09-10-2010, 05:52 PM
I've heard his chances are a heck of a lot higher than that, but I suppose it's good to be conservative with those stats.

MRoCkEd
09-10-2010, 05:55 PM
BJ claims the NRCC is considering calling his race a toss-up if he can raise some money.

Jeremy
09-10-2010, 06:00 PM
To put this into perspective, they say Jack Conway has an 11% chance of winning.

Epic
09-10-2010, 06:58 PM
Keep in mind that 538 is saying that BJ has a 25% chance - and that's when 538 thinks that republicans only have a 2/3 chance of taking over the House.

I think the real chance that the Republicans take over the House is somewhere between 80-90%.

So, that should make Lawson's chances really somewhere in the 30-40% range, without factoring in that he's an awesome candidate.

TCE
09-10-2010, 09:16 PM
Fivethirtyeight is incredibly reliable. I don't doubt Nate Silver's numbers are correct. He has my trust until he proves me wrong, and he hasn't yet.

South Park Fan
09-10-2010, 09:34 PM
I've heard his chances are a heck of a lot higher than that, but I suppose it's good to be conservative with those stats.

The point is that this is a lot better than the zero percent chance he was initially written off as having. If we raised as much money for him now as we did in 2008, he would probably be in a coin toss.

PBrady
09-10-2010, 10:17 PM
The point is that this is a lot better than the zero percent chance he was initially written off as having. If we raised as much money for him now as we did in 2008, he would probably be in a coin toss.
Don't forget that a successful moneybomb would (aside from the obvious) also likely translate to help from the national level - something that would be absolutely unprecedented, and my guess would be, put that coin toss in our favor.

JamesButabi
09-11-2010, 11:46 AM
I would donate to BJ again. In comparison to our other "popular" liberty candidates, he has really been neglected.

Bergie Bergeron
09-11-2010, 12:09 PM
October 13 1792 - George Washington laid the foundation stone for the White House

TCE
09-11-2010, 12:58 PM
From: http://community.nytimes.com/comments/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts/


Checking your competitive races with my spreadsheet...is that really NC4? That one was nowhere near anyone's radar that I know of. But, I checked the NYT race profile, and it does look like Price may be low on cash. I also clicked the link to Lawson's website, and he's touting a poll that shows him in a dead heat. So maybe it's not a typo. If it were a typo, my guesses would be NC7, NC2, or even NY4.


NC-4 is not a typo; instead, the model is hedging a bit for the reasons you mention -- the internal poll plus the fact that the fundraising (in terms of individual contributions) was fairly even as of the 2Q.

wormyguy
09-11-2010, 05:29 PM
Do you think Silver's model accounts for in-district vs. out-of-district donations? If he doesn't, he may be overestimating Dr. Lawson's chances (unfortunately).

TCE
09-11-2010, 09:04 PM
Do you think Silver's model accounts for in-district vs. out-of-district donations? If he doesn't, he may be overestimating Dr. Lawson's chances (unfortunately).

Silver is essentially saying that his upgrade in this race from Safe to Likely hold is Lawson's internal poll combined with his surprising fundraising.

PBrady
09-11-2010, 10:28 PM
I think he was comparing individual fundraising, period. As in, he was discounting the more than 50% of Price's campaign that comes from PACs.

Michigan11
09-11-2010, 10:32 PM
My inner good feeling is telling me we have a shot at this race too. If we go for it though, we need to bring in a real moneybomb to win it. I'm sure we can do it, if we want it. Imagine Ron Paul, Justin Amash, and Lawson serving in the House together... pfff