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View Full Version : Lawson 45.6% - Price 45.1%




JamesButabi
09-07-2010, 01:21 PM
We are winning. Lawson 45.6% - Price 45.1%

Dear James,
Your hard work and dedicated support is paying off!

In front of a packed press room with news reporters, cameras, and supporters at the Clarion Hotel in Raleigh I shared with reporters the historic results of a large-scale poll we commissioned in mid-August.

Not only are we addressing the key issues that people are concerned about, such as bailouts, record deficits, runaway spending, and a government that has grown too big....

We are winning.

Itís clear that the people of the fourth district know that Washington insiders are not representing our best interests.

As I told reporters, Americans know you can't spend yourself out of a recession - just like you can't drink yourself sober. Americans know that you need to cut taxes, eliminate wasteful government spending, stop the bailouts and let North Carolina keep more of our money to allow us to create jobs and prosperity in our own communities.

The signs are becoming clear: Even with a whopping 45.4% Democrat respondents we are still polling nearly half a point ahead of David Price.

This is big news, because this means we have a historic opportunity to unseat a 22-year incumbent Washington insider, who votes with Nancy Pelosi more than any other congressman.

This campaign will be center stage in the 2010 election. The DCCC cannot afford to lose this seat and will likely spend hundreds of thousands to save Price. Politicos across the country had written this one off, but we stood strong -- and it paid off.

Now more than ever I need your help. The Pelosi/Price/Democratic war machine now will have us in their sights and will attempt to discredit me while ignoring the message.

This means we need to be ready to have our message ring clear through extensive radio, television and online advertising. Your contributions are desperately needed so we can remain competitive and beat David Price in November. Please consider a contribution today.

Jeremy
09-07-2010, 04:37 PM
I don't really trust internals, so I wish someone like SurveyUSA could poll the district.

KCIndy
09-07-2010, 04:59 PM
Yeah, I got the same email....

I love the "We are winning!" title. Even if this is a very accurate independent poll, the numbers are tied, for all practical purposes. One half of one percent is clearly within the margin of error even in the best polls.

I support Lawson, and of course they're going to put the best spin on things, but I think the title is disingenuous at best.

RonPaulFanInGA
09-07-2010, 05:02 PM
"We did our own poll -- we won!!"

Jeremy
09-07-2010, 05:10 PM
But don't understate this. It's still very good news.

messana
09-07-2010, 05:11 PM
Winning by .5%.

Too close for comfort.

Distinguished Gentleman
09-07-2010, 07:38 PM
I really hope these results are true.

american.swan
09-07-2010, 07:41 PM
Winning by .5%.

Too close for comfort.

Perfect answer. That's within the margin of error. The number has to rise. Title should have been, "We're bloody close to a victory."

MRoCkEd
09-07-2010, 07:41 PM
"We did our own poll -- we won!!"


YouTube - We did our own poll -- we won!! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87nbxZhf64)

Nathan Hale
09-07-2010, 08:20 PM
Yeah, internals aren't a good indicator - but the fact that his internals poll them neck and neck is a good thing because it means that the district's race is closer than ever in David Price's history in Congress. Assuming a 10 point internal poll bias, it's still an awesome poll.

cbc58
09-08-2010, 07:01 AM
i live in bj's district and many people don't even know who he is. alot of lawson signs out but that does not really mean anything. if the campaign is reading this... don't get comfortable based on this poll.

PBrady
09-08-2010, 07:27 AM
And I find even MORE who have no clue who David Price is. Many people are still completely tuned out of politics. That's why it is important to donate so he can run ads, etc.

Slutter McGee
09-08-2010, 07:54 AM
Id like a little more information. Don't necessarily need crosstabs, there is a reason not release those, but the poll company at least.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

cbc58
09-08-2010, 07:55 AM
i don't think that's a realistic statement. price sends out mailings about 3x year and has also robo-called a couple of times. alot people are turned off by politics, but many know who price is... especailly the entrenched voters and special interests he caters to.

i have said it before and i'll say it again - bj and his supporters need to go door to door and press the flesh and explain why things are the way they are and what he will do to try and fix them. i personally dislike being solicited for donations when all they do is spend money on useless ads or ineffective promotions. go door to door.

PBrady
09-08-2010, 08:09 AM
i don't think that's a realistic statement. price sends out mailings about 3x year and has also robo-called a couple of times. alot people are turned off by politics, but many know who price is... especailly the entrenched voters and special interests he caters to.

I have literally canvassed thousands of houses in the district, and VERY few had heard the name 'David Price' before (I can't even think of a single person off the top of my head, but I'm sure there has been a few). As a matter of fact, I can't think of one person who ever mentioned his name when I came to their door.

Also, people toss his letters. And I know that my house has never gotten a robo call. It literally took me 3 months in to this election cycle to actually find an actual person who not only knew who he was, but actually supported him. I talk to people at work, and am yet to discover someone who knows who their congressman is when asked. You have to understand that a majority of the people who vote for him, vote for the D next to his name. His only real following is in Chapel Hill.


i have said it before and i'll say it again - bj and his supporters need to go door to door and press the flesh and explain why things are the way they are and what he will do to try and fix them. i personally dislike being solicited for donations when all they do is spend money on useless ads or ineffective promotions. go door to door.
And people have been, for months now. There were weeks in June/July where there would be 4 walks in 4 different counties on a given weekend. Now the big walks are starting up again for voter pledges.

Nathan Hale
09-08-2010, 08:13 AM
i don't think that's a realistic statement. price sends out mailings about 3x year and has also robo-called a couple of times. alot people are turned off by politics, but many know who price is... especailly the entrenched voters and special interests he caters to.

Bottom line - we need an indy poll to gauge name recognition.

JamesButabi
09-08-2010, 08:41 AM
Even if the poll is wrong and BJ is down 10%, I consider that a success at this point. Tough district.....awesome candidate. Id love to see some type of grassroots project sprout up to help him with a final push.

cbc58
09-08-2010, 08:43 AM
I have literally canvassed thousands of houses in the district, and VERY few had heard the name 'David Price' before (I can't even think of a single person off the top of my head, but I'm sure there has been a few).

I find this hard to beleive. Don't get me wrong - i want bj to win - but there needs to be a realistic assessment of the situation vs. campaign promotion. I don't know what your position is with the campaign (is it paid?), but please don't tell us no one knows who price is. He's been elected over and over and has a huge advantage over bj on visiblity and in the votes that have mattered to keep him in office. just calling it like i see it.

JamesButabi
09-08-2010, 08:46 AM
I find this hard to beleive. Don't get me wrong - i want bj to win - but there needs to be a realistic assessment of the situation vs. campaign promotion. I don't know what your position is with the campaign (is it paid?), but please don't tell us no one knows who price is. He's been elected over and over and has a huge advantage over bj on visiblity and in the votes that have mattered to keep him in office. just calling it like i see it.

Lets see if we can find some data. Its quite possible the voter apathy is incredibly high.

K466
09-08-2010, 11:50 AM
This poll should make us take this race seriously; it's something we can actually win-twice- by throwing out a bad guy and by replacing him with a good one.

PBrady
09-08-2010, 03:28 PM
I find this hard to beleive. Don't get me wrong - i want bj to win - but there needs to be a realistic assessment of the situation vs. campaign promotion. I don't know what your position is with the campaign (is it paid?), but please don't tell us no one knows who price is. He's been elected over and over and has a huge advantage over bj on visiblity and in the votes that have mattered to keep him in office. just calling it like i see it.

Then get out there and canvass to see for yourself! In 2008, my own mother voted for Price simply because she voted straight party ticket. After I told her that he is pro-war and pro-death penalty, she said she won't vote for him again. I would imagine that there are many people

I've met poli sci students at schools in the area who don't even know who the representative is in the district.

Price sits in congress quietly, never making any noise on any subject, even if it is one he cares about. He has never HAD to run a campaign since 1994...so he has never had to create any name recognition in a gerrymandered district. I can't think of a time I've ever seen him mentioned on the local news, unless it is in brief passing. He held 3 town halls last year, and that was it. The man simply does not go out and engage in the district. He's never had any reason to!

Nathan Hale
09-09-2010, 07:40 AM
I find this hard to beleive. Don't get me wrong - i want bj to win - but there needs to be a realistic assessment of the situation vs. campaign promotion. I don't know what your position is with the campaign (is it paid?), but please don't tell us no one knows who price is. He's been elected over and over and has a huge advantage over bj on visiblity and in the votes that have mattered to keep him in office. just calling it like i see it.

You're speaking from the perspective of a person who is interested in politics, who likely surrounds himself/herself with other people who are interested in politics. Most people don't give politics more thought than "does the media drive me to self-identify as a Republican or a Democrat - or does the web make me call myself an Independent".

Keep in mind that only about half of the voting population even bothers to vote, and when they do, most of the the time US Congress is "down ticket" for them from the Presidential or Gubernatorial race.

It's highly likely for a population to repeatedly elect someone and yet remain largely ignorant of their existence, especially in a district like Price's where the man has, before this cycle, never really bothered to campaign against his GOP sacrificial lamb because he was always a lock.

cbc58
09-09-2010, 07:57 AM
that's not it at all. i talk to people all the time and many know who their elected officials are. you are correct that many people don't know, and many don't care and vote straight party ticket... but people in my area know who david price is and he has entrenched supporters and visibility.

all i am trying to say is that it's alot tougher than some make it out to be... either for wanting to change the system or hoping to. and it's not just price - but political parties who promote thier existence and agendas. this is big ag. area and price caters to them and has for years.

the ONLY way BJ is going to win is if he (or his intelligent-well-versed supporters) go door to door and connect with voters. throwing ads up and spending money isn't going to do it IMHO. this always happens in the election... people get psyched about a candidate and that he has a good chance to topple the status quo and the incumbent wins because of old ties, connections and visiblity. don't understimate price.

aclove
09-09-2010, 12:59 PM
the ONLY way BJ is going to win is if he (or his intelligent-well-versed supporters) go door to door and connect with voters. throwing ads up and spending money isn't going to do it IMHO. this always happens in the election... people get psyched about a candidate and that he has a good chance to topple the status quo and the incumbent wins because of old ties, connections and visiblity. don't understimate price.

Fear not, this is already well underway. Here's an excerpt from an email sent to volunteers on Tuesday:

Precinct Walks Starting Now!

Ready to walk your neighborhood? Stop by the office and pick up a walking list. We've targeted people who traditionally don't vote in off-year elections but who are just as concerned about our country as you are! Encourage your Conservative neighbors to VOTE EARLY!

Today:
Major Campaign Update: Press Conference with the Media at Noon at the Clarion Hotel in Downtown Raleigh. Join us at the press conference to hear this exciting update! Get the scoop live, this is going to be big -- let's pack the place with supporters.

Phone Banking: Join us at our campaign HQ (401 Foster St, Durham) to make phone calls to activate new volunteers. We'll be calling from 1:00 until 8:00.

Wednesday:
US Constitution Class: The class will meet on Mondays starting next week, but will meet Wednesday of this week due to the holiday. 6:30pm at Campaign HQ (401C Foster St, Durham).

Thursday:
Precinct Walk: Meet at the Campaign HQ (401C Foster St, Durham) at 3:30pm. We'll walk from 4-6pm. Please RSVP by replying to this email so we can have materials for you.

Right Night, Hosted by 106.1 FM (RUSH Radio), 6pm, Rey's Restaurant (1130 Buck
Jones Rd, Raleigh). $15 for full dinner buffet.

Phone Banking: Join us at our campaign HQ (401 Foster St, Durham) to make phone calls to activate new volunteers. We'll be calling from 1:00 until 8:00.

Friday:
Townhall Meet and Greet, Oxxford Hunt Clubhouse (120 Fallsworth, Cary). 6:30-8:30pm. Hosted by Oxxford Hunt residents Irv and Denise Stetter. Please RSVP to dstetter@att.net

Saturday:
Precinct Walk: Meet at the Campaign HQ (401C Foster St, Durham) at 9:30am. Walk 10-noon. Please RSVP by replying to this email so we can have materials for you.

Durham Farmers Market. 9:00-noon. Shop and mingle while spreading the word about our campaign.

Daily:
Campaign HQ is open M-F 9:00am to 8:00pm. Stop by anytime to volunteer. We have plenty of work.

Later this Month:

Wine Tasting Fundraiser at Java Divine. Sept. 16 at 6:30pm. Buy your tickets early for a discount!

Constitution Day Money Bomb. Sept 17. Pledge now to donate on Constitution Day and let's raise at least $100,000 so our campaign can fight the Washington insider attack machine and Obama/Pelosi agenda.

Art Show and Wine Tasting Fundraiser at Studio 91. Sept. 21 at 6:30pm.
Check out all our upcoming events on the Events Page.

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As you can see, Lawson and his team are working their butts off doing old-fashioned retail campaigning.