New Internals: BJ Lawson Leading Price in NC-04!

[Imperial]

H/T to Lucille in the BJ Lawson subforum. This is the big news the campaign has been trumpeting for a week. From the campaign press release: (http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/posts/bj-lawson-polling-ahead-of-rep-david-price)


RALEIGH, N.C., September 7, 2010 – William (B.J.) Lawson, MD, Republican challenger to Rep. David Price in North Carolina’s Fourth District, announces a turning point in his campaign as a recent poll shows that 46.5 percent of likely voters would elect him, as opposed to 46.1 percent who would vote to re-elect 22-year incumbent Rep. Price.
...

This poll was conducted in mid-August by Action Solutions, which carries out its polls via a state-of-the-art automated telephone system using standard statistical methods to select a representative sample of registered voters. Action Solutions polled 1,038 registered likely voters here in the Fourth District – respondents included 45.4 percent Democrat, 28.2 percent Republican, 23.6 percent Unaffiliated and 2.8 percent other/third party – which accurately reflects the expected off-year turnout in the district.

Other data from respondents included:
• 95 percent were "very likely” to vote in the November midterm elections
• 71 percent believe that Congress is doing a poor job here in the Fourth District
• 52 percent do not think government spending helps the economy

I am not really familiar with the pollster, but expect BJ to be running a little bit weaker in the general election than in this poll. Nevertheless, I think this shows that BJ's campaign is really worth the investment! It is definitely a competitive race. Let us hope that the grassroots can help him and Gunny out on September 17th for their moneybombs!

[Kludge]

Smells like bullshit. Show me the poll methodology, exact wording used, and full results.

[MRoCkEd]

Show me the poll methodology, exact wording used, and full results.
+1
I've learned to not trust internal polls.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I too hate internals and put no weight in them. Sadly this race though isn't considered competitive enough for an independent pollster to pay to poll it so we could maybe see how it is really going.

At least it is not Persistence Consulting.

[Jordan]

If you release an internal poll it's because you're losing.

[nathanmn]

There is a lot of negativity for what seems like a positive development. I wouldn't put too much faith in an internal poll, but the fact that he is winning it seems to indicate that he has a legitimate chance. Maybe this news will lead to an independent poll.

[Kludge]

There is a lot of negativity for what seems like a positive development. I wouldn't put too much faith in an internal poll, but the fact that he is winning it seems to indicate that he has a legitimate chance. Maybe this news will lead to an independent poll.

If the poll is misleading (I'm assuming it is), it will misdirect investment from grassroots.

Just as if you inflate the monetary supply, inflating poll numbers causes malinvestment.

[PBrady]

There is a lot of negativity for what seems like a positive development. I wouldn't put too much faith in an internal poll, but the fact that he is winning it seems to indicate that he has a legitimate chance. Maybe this news will lead to an independent poll.
I know. Should he have released an internal poll? Damned if you do, damned if you don't, with people here it seems.

I don't know why people find this so hard to believe. As someone posted in the subforum, there are several similar districts that have flipped wide margins:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=259625

As someone who has canvassed thousands of houses here in the 4th district since the primary, I can tell you that this does not seemed far fetched at all. People ARE receptive to our message.

[Anti Federalist]

If the poll is misleading (I'm assuming it is), it will misdirect investment from grassroots.

Just as if you inflate the monetary supply, inflating poll numbers causes malinvestment.

That^^

Correct me if I'm wrong NC people, but isn't Lawson running in a heavily democratic gerrymandered district?

[nathanmn]

If the poll is misleading (I'm assuming it is), it will misdirect investment from grassroots.

Just as if you inflate the monetary supply, inflating poll numbers causes malinvestment.

Republicans are generically polling way above Democrats, and Price is(correct me if I'm wrong) pretty much a party line Democrat who has been supporting Obama and all his policies. The anti-incumbent fever would fall on him pretty hard. Lawson winning or being ahead in a legitimate poll could very well happen.

[specsaregood]

I know. Should he have released an internal poll? Damned if you do, damned if you don't, with people here it seems.
I don't know why people find this so hard to believe. As someone posted in the subforum, there are several similar districts that have flipped wide margins:


The thing is, if the internal poll is valid and not a biased push poll of any sort, then the campaign should PROUDLY release all the information to the press. And if they did and it was, I predict his campaign would see a massive positive response from the grassroots.
We have seen too many unreleased internal poll claims come up short come election day to be swayed by them any longer.

[PBrady]

That^^

Correct me if I'm wrong NC people, but isn't Lawson running in a heavily democratic gerrymandered district?
And look at the who was responding to the poll:


45.4 percent Democrat, 28.2 percent Republican, 23.6 percent Unaffiliated and 2.8 percent other/third party

Besides, this would still put BJ up by slightly less than 10% from the '08 election. Given the change in political climate from 2008 to now, this really shouldn't be surprising at all.

[Anti Federalist]

And look at the who was responding to the poll:

I don't want to come off as a wet blanket here, so w00t for Lawson.

I hope these numbers are valid, because if so, they are astounding.

[aclove]

Yes, the 4th District is heavily gerrymandered. However, to simply sniff that Lawson can't win and/or shouldn't have run simply because the voter registration is heavily Democrat in his district is short sighted, in my opinion. Hell, if that were enough to disqualify someone from trying, it could be argued that Rand Paul never should have filed in Kentucky. After all, KY is heavily Democrat by voter registration.

Ah, you respond, but Kentucky has a history of voting Republican in federal races!

Yeah, so does NC. The only reasons Kay Hagan got elected two years ago were 1.) the Obama wave, and 2.) the truly horrendous Elizabeth Dole.

All of the momentum is in the GOP's direction this year. Yes, it's an uphill battle in the 4th, but Lawson and his team are killing themselves canvassing, calling, and fundraising this year. Everyone's entitled to his or her opinion, and mine is that taking a shit on Lawson's campaign by saying he's a waste of time is a douchey move.

[specsaregood]

Everyone's entitled to his or her opinion, and mine is that taking a shit on Lawson's campaign by saying he's a waste of time is a douchey move.

Fair enough. But giving false hope to the grassroots by releasing errant internal polls is a douchey move as well. It just breeds apathy. I'm not saying that is what the lawson campaign has done -- I hope with everything I have that they are valid -- BUT, it has been done again and again by other liberty candidates.

[Cowlesy]

To all our NC members and Lawson supporters that are no doubt bummed by the initial reactions of other forum members to this poll, all I can say is that there is still some serious scars from wounds inflicted by trusting internal polling.

Some big NBC polls I saw this morning show that this election season could dwarf 1994 and 2006 in magnitude of how many seats flip -- Chuck Todd seemed so depressed. Lawson has run before and did garner in the 30% range if I recall during 2008 when you had the Obama voter surge. Ex those voters who only show up because Obama is on the ticket, and add those voters who are pissed off about the job he's doing, it's possible that this race could be extremely close.

So that's how I am going to view the race. I never trust internal polls, but that aside, I think if all the dominos fall correctly he could eek out a win...but we need the economy to tank, a nasty thunderstorm on election day, among a few other factors between now and November.

[Knightskye]

A .4% lead and he's touting it. Come on, BJ.

I'm gonna donate anyway. Unless there's somewhere more appropriate? Is Justin Amash struggling?

[tremendoustie]

I still consider Lawson the best candidate we have, bar none except Ron himself, and Ron only edges him out because of his multi-decade track record.

If Lawson doesn't win this time around, I hope he moves to New Hampshire (or, barring that, a more evenly split district in NC). A brilliant mind like his doesn't deserve to be stuck in a gerrymandered district.

[PBrady]

Lawson has run before and did garner in the 30% range if I recall during 2008 when you had the Obama voter surge. Ex those voters who only show up because Obama is on the ticket, and add those voters who are pissed off about the job he's doing, it's possible that this race could be extremely close.
Right. He brought in 36% of the vote. That puts him at an extra 10% if this poll in fact rings true. Given that 10% is generally less than what I have seen from the generic polls being done, I don't see why this seems so far out for people.

Also, as someone mentioned, hopefully this will lead to some other group doing an independent poll where more positive results will flow in.

EDIT: Though I agree with you that a win will be had, but by a slim margin. But a win is still a win!

[Imperial]

Smells like bullshit. Show me the poll methodology, exact wording used, and full results.

While this is onlyone negative statement among many here, I will use it to collectively answer everybody with a quick primer on internal polling.

Myth #1: You only release it when you are behind. This isn't really true. In South Carolina Mick Mulvaney, a libertarian Republican released a poll showing him leading Democrat Jon Spratt. Spratt quickly responded with his own poll showing him still leading the race. So which one is behind? You could argue either one. If a race is close, you often see poll and counter poll. I have also seen this at work in North Carolina's big Senate race, although sometimes the polling is done through proxy (IE, a conservative think-tank in place of Burr).

Myth #2: Campaigns should release all information associated with internal polling Let's be realistic here. No matter what a poll says there is always going to be some negative attached to a poll. For example, if Rand Paul is doing really well in the polls but has horrible numbers with African-American numbers, why would he release that information? Think about it: the campaign paid for the poll, so why would you pay for negative publicity? You already got the info you needed, so it would be stupid to advertise weaknesses to your opponents.

Myth #3: Internals are completely unreliable. Pay attention to CQ Politics, DKos' political ticker, SSP, and other political news sites. If you read them consistently, you will note that they often report on internal polling. Why would that be if it didn't mean something? Internal polls are not a monolithic entity. Some are more useful and/or more accurate than others. And, even when asking loaded questions, they can still provide some helpful information (IE, what rhetoric will get you to the poll position your internal advertises). They say that many lies have a kernel of truth wedged within; in this instance, it seems likely that BJ Lawson is running much stronger than in 2008. That does not mean there is no major caveat to the poll; however, it also doesn't mean it is meaningless.


I'm gonna donate anyway. Unless there's somewhere more appropriate? Is Justin Amash struggling?

Justin Amash was leading his race 51-30 in the only released poll of the race, although it was a somewhat Republican-biased poll. Still, he should be having no trouble atm.

[libertybrewcity]

He should have ran for State Senate or State House.

I don't believe this poll at all.

[PBrady]

lol, you people crack me up sometimes.

Also, here are some more details from the poll:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf

[JamesButabi]

Looks like tying Price to Pelosi is a winning strategy

[PBrady]

IMHO, I'd like to see them push that fact that over half of his campaign money comes from big-business PACs (something sure to rile some more dems up).

And if you look further, you'll see that he takes money from several defense contractors...is it just a coincidence that he is the chairman of the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee?

[tremendoustie]

Right. He brought in 36% of the vote. That puts him at an extra 10% if this poll in fact rings true. Given that 10% is generally less than what I have seen from the generic polls being done, I don't see why this seems so far out for people.

Also, as someone mentioned, hopefully this will lead to some other group doing an independent poll where more positive results will flow in.

EDIT: Though I agree with you that a win will be had, but by a slim margin. But a win is still a win!


I agree that he's definitely got a chance, and I'm behind him 100%.

I disagree with his stance on immigration, but other than that, like all of his positions, and I think his manner of speaking to people is very positive, and very convincing.

I definitely want to see more of Mr. Lawson, one way or another.

[tremendoustie]

IMHO, I'd like to see them push that fact that over half of his campaign money comes from big-business PACs (something sure to rile some more dems up).

And if you look further, you'll see that he takes money from several defense contractors...is it just a coincidence that he is the chairman of the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee?


As an above commenter said, tying price to peloci is a good strategy -- but I think this may be even better. Such special interest funding from big business and defense contractors will definitely make democrats uncomfortable with Price -- as they should be.

[Kludge]

Also, here are some more details from the poll:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf (http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf)

Thank you. That's what I wanted.

All I dislike now is not knowing how BJ collected his list of people to be sampled he gave the pollsters. I'm guessing it's people his campaign have already contacted.

[tremendoustie]

lol, you people crack me up sometimes.

Also, here are some more details from the poll:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf (http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf)

Wow, lots of old people.

[specsaregood]

All I dislike now is not knowing how BJ collected his list of people to be sampled he gave the pollsters. I'm guessing it's people his campaign have already contacted.


This is what it says (voter lists)


Sampling
Samples for Action Solutions are derived from lists of registered voters from the survey’s
targeted district or geographic area. In the case of certain state legislative districts, the entire
list of registered voters with a telephone number are called and offered a chance to participate
in the survey. Often multiple rounds of calls to all registered voters are required to obtain a
large enough sample size. Depending upon response rates, multiple rounds of calls to the list of
registered voters might be required to obtain a sufficient sample size. In order to ensure a
distribution of ages and genders within households, the automated survey asks the respondent
to identify their age and gender. Specifically, the aim is for a gender split based on the gender
split from recent elections. Among Republicans, this gender split is typically is 51% female and
49% male. Since all Action Solution polls are of registered voters, each respondent is screened
to establish him/her as a registered voter. In the months prior to elections, surveys sometimes
screen for “likely voters” through a series of additional questions about past voting behavior
and interest in voting in the current election.

[Kludge]

This is what it says (voter lists)

In the linked .pdf, it says BJ's campaign provided a list of registered voters for them to use, which they randomly selected a sample from.

[BenIsForRon]

At first I thought he was polling too few people in Durham, but Durham accounted for just over a quarter of the votes last time around. I imagine they will make up much less this time around.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/21334/en/md.html?cid=125

He really has a chance to win. Anyone who says otherwise is simply uninformed about the district and the level of republican support going on nationwide.

[specsaregood]

In the linked .pdf, it says BJ's campaign provided a list of registered voters for them to use, which they randomly selected a sample from.

Ah yes.

I was :)
Now I'm back to :(

[Knightskye]

lol, you people crack me up sometimes.

Also, here are some more details from the poll:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/sites/projects.newsobserver.com/files/LFC_Poll_Results.pdf

Hah, wow. Look at the sample. Heavy Democrat sample, and it's still tied.

[itshappening]

very interesting poll, remember no pollster will even look at this race and for an internal poll it is quite transparent and believable