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Nathan Hale
09-07-2010, 07:23 AM
Phil Berg is running as an LP candidate against John Dennis. The LP can really be retarded sometimes. In 2008, I remember the LP ran a candidate against Ron Paul, it's just ridiculous. Here's Phil's email - please drop him a line begging him to drop out and endorse John Dennis. If there's any district where we need every single vote we can get, this is it:

philip@choosepeacenow.us

libertarian4321
10-09-2010, 01:28 AM
Phil Berg is running as an LP candidate against John Dennis. The LP can really be retarded sometimes. In 2008, I remember the LP ran a candidate against Ron Paul, it's just ridiculous. Here's Phil's email - please drop him a line begging him to drop out and endorse John Dennis. If there's any district where we need every single vote we can get, this is it:

philip@choosepeacenow.us

There's nothing "retarded" about it. The LP knows (as does any rational analyst) that John Dennis is going to get crushed.

The LP candidate will make no difference in the results. Pelosi is a stone cold lock to win and win big.

So why should the LP guy not run- so Dennis can get 24% instead of 23.5%?

libertarian4321
10-09-2010, 01:29 AM
Phil Berg is running as an LP candidate against John Dennis. The LP can really be retarded sometimes. In 2008, I remember the LP ran a candidate against Ron Paul, it's just ridiculous. Here's Phil's email - please drop him a line begging him to drop out and endorse John Dennis. If there's any district where we need every single vote we can get, this is it:

philip@choosepeacenow.us

There's nothing "retarded" about it. The LP knows (as does any rational analyst) that John Dennis is going to get crushed like a Napa grape.

The LP candidate will make no difference in the results. Pelosi is a stone cold lock to win and win big.

So why should the LP guy not run- so Dennis can get 24% instead of 23.5%?

Revontulet
10-09-2010, 06:04 PM
I agree with 4321. If the LP want to become an electoral force then they can't be seen to be the GOP minus 'the bits you don't like', they need to routinely contest as many elections as possible, even if it is against candidates we support on this forum.

Austrian Econ Disciple
10-09-2010, 06:13 PM
I agree with 4321. If the LP want to become an electoral force then they can't be seen to be the GOP minus 'the bits you don't like', they need to routinely contest as many elections as possible, even if it is against candidates we support on this forum.

Um...John is more libertarian than quite a few LP members. If the LP runs members against libertarians (regardless of party affiliation), then the party itself has removed itself from principles and now is running as effectively a racket as Murray loved to put it. The goal is the principle, not anything else, and as soon as the goal becomes to advance the Party and not the principle then we know that the LP should be abolished and a new movement should arise. Do not support rackets.

PS: I think the LP is self-defeating anyways.

Nathan Hale
10-11-2010, 09:16 PM
There's nothing "retarded" about it. The LP knows (as does any rational analyst) that John Dennis is going to get crushed.

The myriad people backing aren't delusional or devoted to him for his educational value - John Dennis is certainly a dark horse, but his momentum is driven by the way he's hacking the traditional political racetrack in SF. His support is based on his attempt to win the seat. This is important, because it is the sole worthwhile reason to run for political office. This will be important to know later.


The LP candidate will make no difference in the results. Pelosi is a stone cold lock to win and win big.

So why should the LP guy not run- so Dennis can get 24% instead of 23.5%?

Because the LP candidate isn't running to win. An electoral campaign is an inadequate method of resource allocation for people looking to get out the message - especially in the information age. Just about every other method of outreach is a more effective at spreading information than electoral campaigning.

libertarian4321
10-12-2010, 02:46 AM
[QUOTE=Nathan Hale;2927748]

Because the LP candidate isn't running to win. An electoral campaign is an inadequate method of resource allocation for people looking to get out the message - especially in the information age. Just about every other method of outreach is a more effective at spreading information than electoral campaigning.

John Dennis isn't running "to win" unless he's completely delusional.

John Dennis has about the same chance of winning that race as Barney Frank has of winning Olympic Gold in the 100 meter dash at the 2012 London Olympic games- in other words, zero chance.

I can't think of a congressional district in the USA that is more of a one-party fiefdom than Pelosi's (and, btw, the vast majority of congressional districts in this country are Gerrymandered to be completely uncompetitive).

To put it in perspective: John McCain, considered a moderate or "RINO" by many- and therefore more appealing to "liberal" districts, got TWELVE PERCENT in 2008.

Read that again, Twelve freakin' percent. Bush got about the same.

The Republican party has contested Pelosi's seat every year since her first race, in 1992. The Republican candidate has only cracked 13% once (in 1994, Elsa Cheung got a whopping 18%, probably only because her last name was obviously Chinese in a district that is about 10% ethnically Chinese). In gubernatorial and senate races, the district typically votes 12-15% Republican.

Even when you have horrific Dem candidates (e.g. Angelides), running against reasonably popular moderate Republicans, the Republicans can't come close to cracking 30%.

That should tell you the Republican base in that district stands at about 12-15%. Not a chance in Hell any Republican is going to win that district.

The Dems could nominate a scarecrow, run him against the best funded, most eloquent Republican in the party, and the Dem candidate would still win in a landslide.

At most, he can holler and make some noise- which is about all the Libertarian can do as well, NEITHER has any chance to win.

So the argument that the Libertarian should leave the race so "Dennis can win" is utterly absurd.

Mark my words, Dennis isn't going to crack 35%- he'd have to be a miracle worker to break 30%), let alone "win."

The Libertarian candidates actually do reasonably well in this district- in the 2-3% range in contested races.

So if you add the Libertarian 3% to a very optimistic estimate of 30% for Dennis, he's get 33% (assuming every Libertarian voted for Dennis, which isn't realistic). There is also a Green Party candidate- let's assume the Greens get 3%.

With the Libertarian in the race, Dennis loses 64-30.

Without the Libertarian in the race, Dennis loses 64-33.

Note: 64-33 is NOT "competitive." Its an ass whipping.

So there is NO REASON for the Libertarian to get out of the race. None.

Most likely, Dennis will get 20-25% of the vote.

Nathan Hale
10-12-2010, 09:02 PM
Okay, let's assume that you're right, even though there are volumes on this very board that speaks otherwise.

Let's say Dennis can't win.

IT'S STILL A WASTE OF TIME FOR THE LP TO RUN A CANDIDATE.

Why? Because of the text you quote in your message above, which you fail to speak to. Unless you're running to win, you're wasting your time by running for office.

The LP candidate is wasting time and money that could be far better spent in other forms of strategic outreach.

Aratus
10-13-2010, 09:41 AM
i hope the next 3 weeks will show ONE and ALL that i am not tripping my brains out!

THUSLY ---a week from now, when JOHN DENNIS polls at 35% to 42% of the vote, could
we all indeed take the IDEALISTIC Libertarian Candidate aside & ask him to announce
at the five day mark before the election that he WANTs all his people to vote GOP?

seems to me we need a perception in the mass media some three to five days
before the critical HOUSE seat election that (A.) the LIBERTARIAN PARTY exists,
(B.) LIBERTARIANs are "kingmakers" insted of JOKES or SPOILERs ...and that
(C.) JOHN DENNIS's CANDIDACY is the WAY we have the LP + the RNC in tandem!
(D.) JOHN DENNIS is our modern KYNGE DAVID fit to humble all monied Goliaths!

Aratus
10-13-2010, 09:49 AM
Life is sometimes MORE than a zero-sum game! --We need a PRESS CONFERENCE where
JOHN DENNIS can coalition build as we pull MORE people into the fold as WE WELCOME ALL
REAGAN DEMOCRATs in and near SAN FRANCISCO into our BILL Of RIGHTS and our BUDGET
CUTTING crusade for more Sanity in Gov't! --JOHN DENNIS has no negative baggage at All!
there is a significant difference between having no baggage & having no NeGATiVE bags.

Aratus
10-13-2010, 09:55 AM
in plain english --- GET a well timed PRESS CONFERENCE with the LP guy A.S.A.P
an' have them BOTH be on the local mass media in a big way all over the district!

Aratus
10-13-2010, 09:56 AM
you saturate the local media on this one, you DRAW the d.c driven national media!

Aratus
10-13-2010, 10:00 AM
halloween is three days before our general elections...
thats why i think a FiVE day timeframe is bRIGHT!
admittedly people may tire of the "kansas
and lil' dog Toto too" video if there
is an ad saturation now thusly
done as in everywhere...

libertarian4321
10-14-2010, 03:53 PM
Okay, let's assume that you're right, even though there are volumes on this very board that speaks otherwise.

Let's say Dennis can't win.

IT'S STILL A WASTE OF TIME FOR THE LP TO RUN A CANDIDATE.

Why? Because of the text you quote in your message above, which you fail to speak to. Unless you're running to win, you're wasting your time by running for office.

The LP candidate is wasting time and money that could be far better spent in other forms of strategic outreach.

Incorrect.

Having run for office a number of times, I can tell you that it does help to be on the ballot, even if you lose.

The LP is a small party that many Americans have still never even heard of. Anything they can do to get even a small amount of recognition helps.

Just by getting your name on the ballot, here are examples of the kind of exposure the Libertarian candidate will get for FREE- and they'd get none of this if the candidate wasn't on the ballot:

1. Free air time on TV and radio: Many stations will interview third party candidates on occasion. PBS will often have televised debates and will invite ALL candidates on the ballot. Some TV stations run "meet the candidates" forums to give candidates air time to make their point- and ALL candidates on the ballot are included. As a candidate, I just finished an interview with the student newspaper at a small university- it isn't the NY Times, but it helps.

2. You will get your name listed in voter guides- the official government version, versions from well known groups like the League of Women's voters, and those of may obscure organizations- political, religious, professional, etc.

3. You will get invited to speaking engagements/debates/forums from a variety of groups- church groups, the Kiwanis, colleges, whatever.

4. Your name and party will be listed in articles all over the internet. Your name may even be discussed on forums (like this one).

5. On election night, your name, party, and vote numbers will be broadcast at least on local TV, and probably on national TV if you run for Federal office.

BTW, all this stuff above is FREE (other than paying gas money to go to the debates, etc)- and depending on where you are, it may cost little or nothing to get on the ballot (it cost me $10 to get on the ballot to run for Congress).

So there are lots of reasons to run as a Libertarian even if the Republican candidate is largely libertarian in his point of view.

Given that Libertarian will get exposure, and that he won't "hurt" the libertarian Republican (because that Republican has ZERO chance of winning), there is no reason for the Libertarian to pull out of the race.

One more salient point: It's too late for the Libertarian to take his name off the ballot now, anyway- absentee ballots have already been printed and mailed.

Nathan Hale
10-19-2010, 08:55 PM
Incorrect.

And so far this strategy has gotten the LP and the liberty movement absolutely nothing. Sure, there are pluses to running, but the minuses (i.e. spending money and time - both yours and other peoples) outweigh those pluses. A candidate, instead of running, could target money and time into a single issue campaign or one of a thousand other political or social ventures that obtains just about all of the pluses while more effectively using resources.

libertarian4321
10-20-2010, 11:18 PM
And so far this strategy has gotten the LP and the liberty movement absolutely nothing. Sure, there are pluses to running, but the minuses (i.e. spending money and time - both yours and other peoples) outweigh those pluses. A candidate, instead of running, could target money and time into a single issue campaign or one of a thousand other political or social ventures that obtains just about all of the pluses while more effectively using resources.

I disagree.

All of those things I listed are FREE- that's a lot of exposure for no cost. Exposure that would cost you thousands of dollars otherwise.

Just getting on TV for free for 15 minutes in a large market is worth more all the time and money I could spend "targeting money on an issue" (I'm not even sure how I'd do that effectively if I wasn't a candidate).

Did I mention that it's FREE (just have to pay the gas money to drive to the TV station).

Nathan Hale
10-23-2010, 05:58 PM
I disagree.

All of those things I listed are FREE- that's a lot of exposure for no cost. Exposure that would cost you thousands of dollars otherwise.

Just getting on TV for free for 15 minutes in a large market is worth more all the time and money I could spend "targeting money on an issue" (I'm not even sure how I'd do that effectively if I wasn't a candidate).

Did I mention that it's FREE (just have to pay the gas money to drive to the TV station).

It's not free, it only seems free. In order to get invited to these events you have to be perceived as running a credible campaign - and that costs money. Now, you can target that money and human labor into gaining credibility as an issue leader, and you can get just as much - if not MORE - exposure via numerous media sources. Remember, the media doesn't just cover political campaigns - issue advocates are in interviews, on panels, and the subject of stories all over the place.

Aratus
10-24-2010, 05:02 PM
in plain english --- GET a well timed PRESS CONFERENCE with the LP guy A.S.A.P
an' have them BOTH be on the local mass media in a big way all over the district!


you saturate the local media on this one, you DRAW the d.c driven national media!


IS THERE A WAY TO GET THE LIBERTARiAN PARTY ON BOARD?

libertarian4321
10-24-2010, 11:03 PM
It's not free, it only seems free. In order to get invited to these events you have to be perceived as running a credible campaign - and that costs money. Now, you can target that money and human labor into gaining credibility as an issue leader, and you can get just as much - if not MORE - exposure via numerous media sources. Remember, the media doesn't just cover political campaigns - issue advocates are in interviews, on panels, and the subject of stories all over the place.

Dude, I've run for office. Many times.

I assume by your comments that you haven't.

I've been in debates on TV and radio. I've received free TV, newspaper, and radio time to make my points.

I have not run "credible campaigns." I was running all those campaigns on a shoe string budget, basically taking what I could get for free, and little or nothing else.

Public radio and TV, especially, have been receptive to allowing all candidates on the ballot the chance to speak, but commercial stations have also given me free time.

So I got a lot of free TV/radio/newspaper press while spending essentially nothing. That's a very effective use of money. Free TV and air time to get out the message. It doesn't get any better than that. All I had to do was pay gas money to drive the ~20 miles to the studio.

Plus, of course, I got invited to speak to many civic groups- again, all it cost me was gas money and a couple of hours of my time.

Nathan Hale
10-26-2010, 06:07 AM
Dude, I've run for office. Many times.

I assume by your comments that you haven't.

"Dude", I haven't run for office, you're right - but only because I'm a campaign strategist by trade. I used to work with the LP - professionally.


]I've been in debates on TV and radio. I've received free TV, newspaper, and radio time to make my points.

I have not run "credible campaigns." I was running all those campaigns on a shoe string budget, basically taking what I could get for free, and little or nothing else.

Well then you lucked out, but this is not the norm. Sure, you can get in the pennysaver with just a registration at your back, maybe you'll be invited to 1 of 12 debates, the papers will probably mention your name on paragraph 12 of their article about the two real candidates because they're legally required to, and maybe some Gannett countywide weekly will profile you as a kooky side story, but if you want serious news coverage you need to show that you're actually running for the seat and have the campaign infrastructure to prove it.

To the contrary, you can invest a minimal amount of money and time and get far better coverage, including numerous major, respectable media placements that reach a far greater number of people by taking a different path.


Public radio and TV, especially, have been receptive to allowing all candidates on the ballot the chance to speak, but commercial stations have also given me free time.

Public access???? Really???? Let's be serious here.

libertarian4321
10-30-2010, 07:43 AM
"Dude", I haven't run for office, you're right - but only because I'm a campaign strategist by trade. I used to work with the LP - professionally.

Really? Do tell. I'd love to hear about it.

What wealth of experience and years of political experience led you to this position?

I only ask because the LP has very few professional "campaign strategists".

Note: Working as a telemarketer paid by the LP does not count.


Well then you lucked out, but this is not the norm. Sure, you can get in the pennysaver with just a registration at your back, maybe you'll be invited to 1 of 12 debates, the papers will probably mention your name on paragraph 12 of their article about the two real candidates because they're legally required to, and maybe some Gannett countywide weekly will profile you as a kooky side story, but if you want serious news coverage you need to show that you're actually running for the seat and have the campaign infrastructure to prove it.

Again, I'm not talking about the "pennysaver"- though I do get exposure in small newspapers, college papers,and the like.

I'm talking about the only paper in a city of over 1,000,000 people. I'm talking about FREE prime time air time on the NBC, Fox, ABC, and PBS affiliates in the same city. If I'd had to pay for that time, it would have cost tens of thousands of dollars- I got that exposure for $10-15 by running as a Libertarian.


To the contrary, you can invest a minimal amount of money and time and get far better coverage, including numerous major, respectable media placements that reach a far greater number of people by taking a different path.

I challenge you to get 2 minutes of time on a network TV station in a major market city for less than $20. Until you do that, you are blowing smoke.



Public access???? Really???? Let's be serious here.

I'm not talking about cable public access on channel 754, I'm talking about CPB TV time (channel 10 here)- the public tv/NPR folks carry the most political coverage- more than any network. But I've also gotten free time on the networks as well.