MRoCkEd
09-06-2010, 06:52 PM
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7535/new-2010-projections-dems-lose-house-by-12
Why you should listen to us
We have an outstanding track record. (http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/search/label/Judgement%20Day)
In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off on the national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..
We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.
n 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn't even put up predictions.
And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.
Now on to the Forecasts.
The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4083/4964331331_57f498e839.jpg
For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy (http://stochasticdemocracy.com/), here you'll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.
Senate
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4113/4964547032_a5c400a717_b.jpg
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4146/4965114786_bcef714be1.jpg
More at link (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7535/new-2010-projections-dems-lose-house-by-12)...
Why you should listen to us
We have an outstanding track record. (http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/search/label/Judgement%20Day)
In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off on the national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..
We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.
n 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn't even put up predictions.
And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.
Now on to the Forecasts.
The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4083/4964331331_57f498e839.jpg
For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy (http://stochasticdemocracy.com/), here you'll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.
Senate
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4113/4964547032_a5c400a717_b.jpg
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4146/4965114786_bcef714be1.jpg
More at link (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7535/new-2010-projections-dems-lose-house-by-12)...