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View Full Version : 2010 Electoral Projections - GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate



MRoCkEd
09-06-2010, 06:52 PM
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7535/new-2010-projections-dems-lose-house-by-12
Why you should listen to us

We have an outstanding track record. (http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/search/label/Judgement%20Day)

In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off on the national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..

We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.

n 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn't even put up predictions.

And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.

Now on to the Forecasts.

The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4083/4964331331_57f498e839.jpg
For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy (http://stochasticdemocracy.com/), here you'll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.

Senate

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4113/4964547032_a5c400a717_b.jpg

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4146/4965114786_bcef714be1.jpg

More at link (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7535/new-2010-projections-dems-lose-house-by-12)...
forsmant
09-06-2010, 06:56 PM
I'd like to think that this is a good thing. But history tells me it isn't.
Legend1104
09-06-2010, 08:08 PM
Does anyone know how many liberty candidates we could pick up?
Matt Collins
09-06-2010, 08:12 PM
I'd like to think that this is a good thing. But history tells me it isn't.
Gridlock in DC would be good or at least optimal for the time being. But yes it does appear that we are repeating the mid-late '90s. :(
TCE
09-06-2010, 08:23 PM
Does anyone know how many liberty candidates we could pick up?

Mike Lee (R-UT) is a minor Liberty Candidate. We don't expect him to vote with us on all issues, but most of them. Rand Paul (R-KY) is the other one. Other than that, it is mostly Neo-Cons beating liberals, nothing new. The Republicans will have enough Senators to theoretically block most legislation, however, that isn't reality.
Promontorium
09-06-2010, 08:29 PM
So they think Conway is almost twice as likely to win as Fiorina?

I'm sure they're very accurate people, but I thought the dead even polling would give Fiorina some chance. Although there are so many mountains for anyone to climb going after old woman Boxer.
MRoCkEd
09-20-2010, 08:38 PM
More numbers... using Pollster.com averages

http://images2.dailykos.com/images/user/123/Snapshot_0920.GIF

It should be noted this is not really "projections" but what would happen if the election were held today.

This has Angle losing, but also Feingold losing.

Not sure where they are getting numbers that Murkowski will win her write-in bid though.
TCE
09-20-2010, 08:43 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate

538 is another source that, for the most part, concurs.
Brett85
09-20-2010, 08:48 PM
"And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much."

They outed themselves as a left wing organization with their attack on Rasmussen.
TCE
09-20-2010, 09:01 PM
"And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren't swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much."

They outed themselves as a left wing organization with their attack on Rasmussen.

I agree with them, Rasmussen is not to be trusted until October.
MozoVote
09-20-2010, 09:27 PM
Shifts of 40 seats are *NOT* that unusual in the history of US politics. Shifts of twentysomething are in fact, quite common. The horse race mentality of the news cycle makes is seem bigger than life.

Heck the 16 year span of time from 1994 to 2010 is not that long from a "history of the nation" perspective.

Google up on the elections of 1938, 1942, 1946 or 1948. Those were some serious swings of 55 to 80 seats.
klamath
09-20-2010, 09:32 PM
It is way to early to be making these kind of predictions. The weekend before the election is the only real time to get a semi accurate poll.