Cook Report: The Senate is in play for Republicans

[sailingaway]

News to someone out there, perhaps.

Takeaway: "With this many races in play, Democrats may have to perform triage and focus their resources on those that remain winnable. That means giving up on the rest."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20100904_3492.php

h/t Jake at pageonekentucky.com

[TCE]

The Senate is not in play. It's just that there are more important races to be won than Jack Conway in Kentucky. However, consider that there are several races the Democrats don't have to spend money in because they are foregone conclusions.

North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, and Indiana are all lost for the Democrats already. That leaves Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois as better places for the Democrats to spend money than in Kentucky. Rand hopes the races there become much more competitive and he starts to gain ground on Conway so Democrats see the race as a lost cause.

[Brett85]

The Senate is not in play. It's just that there are more important races to be won than Jack Conway in Kentucky. However, consider that there are several races the Democrats don't have to spend money in because they are foregone conclusions.

North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, and Indiana are all lost for the Democrats already. That leaves Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois as better places for the Democrats to spend money than in Kentucky. Rand hopes the races there become much more competitive and he starts to gain ground on Conway so Democrats see the race as a lost cause.

Delaware will be lost for the Republicans if Christine O'Donnell wins the GOP primary. It's looking more and more likely that that may happen.

[sailingaway]

I think the Senate clearly IS 'in play', but I don't think it will quite flip. Yet I'm pretty confident the house will, and that has never happened unless the Senate did as well. So we'll see.

[Galileo Galilei]

Delaware will be lost for the Republicans if Christine O'Donnell wins the GOP primary. It's looking more and more likely that that may happen.

baloney.

[parocks]

baloney.

I like Christine. The conventional wisdom is certainly that Castle would have an easier time agains Coons than Christine would. But Christine could definitely beat Coons. If Christine was the Republican nominee, the Democrats would likely send money to Delaware, and, perhaps, away from Kentucky.

Christine is certainly more conservative than Castle. If Castle is the nominee, it will be more difficult for other, more conservative candidates such as Rand, as the Dems will keep fighting in Kentucky and other states instead of taking their money to Delaware. So, for all other conservative candidates running for Senate right now, Christine should be the choice, as it would take Democrat money away from their state, and their elections will all be easier to win.

[Galileo Galilei]

I like Christine. The conventional wisdom is certainly that Castle would have an easier time agains Coons than Christine would. But Christine could definitely beat Coons. If Christine was the Republican nominee, the Democrats would likely send money to Delaware, and, perhaps, away from Kentucky.

Christine is certainly more conservative than Castle. If Castle is the nominee, it will be more difficult for other, more conservative candidates such as Rand, as the Dems will keep fighting in Kentucky and other states instead of taking their money to Delaware. So, for all other conservative candidates running for Senate right now, Christine should be the choice, as it would take Democrat money away from their state, and their elections will all be easier to win.

Castle would be part of the Mitch McConnell faction of the Senate and oppose a full audit of the Fed. O'Donnell would be part of the Jim DeMint/Rand Paul faction of the Senate and support a full audit of the Fed. We want Senators that support real change, not RINOs.

This seat is going to go GOP either way.

[Bergie Bergeron]

Let's all hope that Sharon Angle wins Nevada. Maybe Kurt Angle should endorse her? :D

[Brett85]

Castle would be part of the Mitch McConnell faction of the Senate and oppose a full audit of the Fed. O'Donnell would be part of the Jim DeMint/Rand Paul faction of the Senate and support a full audit of the Fed. We want Senators that support real change, not RINOs.

This seat is going to go GOP either way.

Huh? Do you realize that we're talking about Delaware here? Delaware is one of the most liberal states in the country. I would love to have 100 Jim Demint's in the U.S. Senate, but it's never going to happen. People have to be realistic about the chances of electing conservatives in deep blue states.

[Galileo Galilei]

Huh? Do you realize that we're talking about Delaware here? Delaware is one of the most liberal states in the country. I would love to have 100 Jim Demint's in the U.S. Senate, but it's never going to happen. People have to be realistic about the chances of electing conservatives in deep blue states.

Isn't Joe Biden from Delaware? Never underestimate Joltin' Joe Biden. ANYBODY can win in Delaware right now in this climate.

:eek:

[sailingaway]

Isn't Joe Biden from Delaware? Never underestimate Joltin' Joe Biden. ANYBODY can win in Delaware right now in this climate.

:eek:

I don't know her, really, just the massive smear coming from GOP echo chambers now, and even Erik Ericson has pulled back from her campaign although he still thinks a Dem would be better than Castle. I don't know if people are REALLY certain she can't win or if McConnell et al of the mushy middle are just in total panic because of Alaska, which wouldn't sway me to their side in the slightest.

The meme going out widely on conservative blogs linked with the RNC is that she is a disaster..... but they said the same about Rand in the primary (just not as shrilly..... but is that desparation or truth we are hearing? Now, if only they had any credibility, they could play that card...

This is the latest Rasmussen.... http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/election_2010_delaware_senate

[Galileo Galilei]

I don't know her, really, just the massive smear coming from GOP echo chambers now, and even Erik Ericson has pulled back from her campaign although he still thinks a Dem would be better than Castle. I don't know if people are REALLY certain she can't win or if McConnell et al of the mushy middle are just in total panic because of Alaska, which wouldn't sway me to their side in the slightest.

The meme going out widely on conservative blogs linked with the RNC is that she is a disaster..... but they said the same about Rand in the primary (just not as shrilly..... but is that desparation or truth we are hearing? Now, if only they had any credibility, they could play that card...

This is the latest Rasmussen.... http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/election_2010_delaware_senate

If she wins the primary, she will get a media bump and catch up in the polls. She might have already done that since the poll is a month old.

[KurtBoyer25L]

Cat needs a proofreader. I thought I was crazy until checking it, but his lead paragraph doesn't want to go away.

[sailingaway]

If she wins the primary, she will get a media bump and catch up in the polls. She might have already done that since the poll is a month old.

I don't honestly think the pollsters know how to poll tea party candidates. It was just all I had. The thing is, the noise is making people stay OUT, rightly or wrongly, who otherwise might be pushing for her, because they just don't know.

[TCE]

Delaware didn't change overnight, it still is a bastion for liberal/progressive crap. If Christine wins, Coons gets the seat. However, Castle is a pretty liberal Republican and he votes regularly with the Democrats on anti-liberty legislation such as cap and trade http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2009-477.

A Democrat probably would be better since he would only go along with Obama and vote against all of the Republicans' anti-liberty stuff whereas Castle will vote horribly both ways. On the other hand, Castle will only be in for one term and then we can run someone else in six years.