Discuss: Ron Paul doesn't have a chance in 2012 except if the economy crashes?

[ibaghdadi]

I'm of the position that Ron Paul doesn't stand a real chance in 2012 unless the economy tanks (which most Austrian economists, including Peter Schiff predict; to them it's a matter of "when" rather than "if").

I think we all agree that Ron Paul being elected president is nothing short of a revolution. As Rothbard noted, revolutions mostly occur in response to a crisis situation. My position is that the "real crisis" isn't here yet, but is coming, and Ron Paul will only get the audience he deserves in response to such a crisis. The movement will only go mainstream in response to such a crisis.

Do you agree with this analysis? I think that if the economy does tank and the crisis deepens, the Democrats will push for an FDR-style "New Deal" and rally around Obama, while the Republicans will find in Ron Paul their savior.

[kahless]

I would not say that he does not have a chance especially since the media is being more favorable to Ron. A further change in the media landscape or a couple of states seceding would be preferable rather than a crash.

I believe he can win without a collapse or seccession by making in-roads in the following areas:

1. A 4th news channel with 100% US cable/satellite penetration providing Libertarian leaning coverage favorable to RP.

2. Favorable coverage from a nationally recognized newspaper and at least one local newspaper in each region.

3. Favorable Hollywood entertainment coverage. Popular late night comedians, movies and creation of a counter-culture movement in Hollywood supportive of Libertarian values.

We need people with deep pockets that can invest in media outlets.

[DamianTV]

I hate to pull the whole "Dumb and Dumberer" line, but...

Hey! This is great news! It means Ron Paul DOES have a chance!

[Romulus]

Lets not forget our deficit and these endless wars we are in. Both very unpopular.

[awake]

He may not make President, but his ideas have, and will continue to have, a profound effect.

[cindy25]

I disagree. Palin, Huck, Mitt, and all the others could and would easily copy RP's economic program.

his chance relies on the wars becoming unpopular (think LBJ/McCarthy 68)

Palin etc will never become peace candidates.

[ibaghdadi]

I hate to pull the whole "Dumb and Dumberer" line, but... Hey! This is great news! It means Ron Paul DOES have a chance!
:p The Dumb and Dumber line was "one in a million", I think we agree that the chances of an economic crisis or collapse are way more than one in a million...


I disagree. Palin, Huck, Mitt, and all the others could and would easily copy RP's economic program.
Palin/Huck/Romney do not have the depth of knowledge or experience or integrity that RP has and they can easily be exposed for being opportunistic. Especially if RP tries to win over one of them for a VP ticket.

Which brings us to the second point...

Palin etc will never become peace candidates.
I think you underestimate the sliminess of the average career politicians. They'll become anything to get elected.

[Romulus]

a Peace candidate in today's climate is a hard sell. I think peace is actually unpopular now. The real cowards close their ears and shout things like 'he doesnt support the troops!' 'he's anti-american' and 'he an isolationist!' The morons cant even grasp the connection that big war = big government, and they havent got a clue who benefits. They think these wars make us safe. People are just real fuckin stupid.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

a Peace candidate in today's climate is a hard sell. I think peace is actually unpopular now. The real cowards close their ears and shout things like 'he doesnt support the troops!' 'he's anti-american' and 'he an isolationist!' The morons cant even grasp the connection that big war = big government, and they havent got a clue who benefits. They think these wars make us safe. People are just real fuckin stupid.

You think so? I hear that on this board all the time, directed towards me. If that's happening on this board, what do you think the chances are outside of this board? It's time we started over. Every state should have a secession movement, and the ideas of liberty should be behind it. It's up to us to move forward on that idea within our respective states. It's like trying to reform the Kremlin. It ain't going to happen without a collapse and secession.

[james1906]

An economic collapse or couple of states successfully seceding or a change in the media landscape.

Without the collapse or seccession he needs:

1. A 4th news channel with 100% US cable/satellite penetration providing Libertarian leaning coverage favorable to RP.

2. Favorable coverage from a nationally recognized newspaper and at least one local newspaper in each region.

3. Favorable Hollywood entertainment coverage. Popular late night comedians, movies and creation of a counter-culture movement in Hollywood supportive of Libertarian values.

We need people with deep pockets that can invest in media outlets.

1. Hopefully Fox Business continues to grow, and Murdoch doesn't stop it when it becomes the libertarian news station.

2. Orange County Register. That's about all we can hope for here. It's a dying medium for reasons other than the internet.

3. We need more Vince Vaughns. Leno, love him or hate him, has been good to RP. Most importantly, people over 35 watch Leno, and they're who we need to go after. RP also needs to go on the morning shows often, like the View, Ellen, etc.

[sofia]

no chance within the Israeli loving Evangelical and Neo-con infested GOP....

[Romulus]

You think so? I hear that on this board all the time, directed towards me. If that's happening on this board, what do you think the chances are outside of this board? It's time we started over. Every state should have a secession movement, and the ideas of liberty should be behind it. It's up to us to move forward on that idea within our respective states. It's like trying to reform the Kremlin. It ain't going to happen without a collapse and secession.

People can't even wake up to the reality of what our foreign intervention is - they sure as hell aren't gonna go for that one.

It's a work in progress --- baby steps.

[TonySutton]

The economy already tanked. RP needs to start out by reminding people he warned them in 2007/2008 and very few listened. All of his competition either laughed at him or called him names. I am pretty sure most of his competition in 2012 will have been on record in 2007/2008 as saying the economy is fine. He needs to beat them in the head with their ignorance.

Then he needs to sit people down like the wise grandfather he is and explain that we need to tighten the belt.

Personally I think he is in perfect position to ride the wave to victory in 2012!

[Romulus]

1. Hopefully Fox Business continues to grow, and Murdoch doesn't stop it when it becomes the libertarian news station.

2. Orange County Register. That's about all we can hope for here. It's a dying medium for reasons other than the internet.

3. We need more Vince Vaughns. Leno, love him or hate him, has been good to RP. Most importantly, people over 35 watch Leno, and they're who we need to go after. RP also needs to go on the morning shows often, like the View, Ellen, etc.

Can you see telling Ellen that we need to End the Fed? LOL!

But I do agree... Ron is a likeable guy and women are very sympathetic to an anti-war cause. Not so sure about the sound money thing. lolz

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

Can you see telling Ellen that we need to End the Fed? LOL!

But I do agree... Ron is a likeable guy and women are very sympathetic to an anti-war cause. Not so sure about the sound money thing. lolz

Not that I am a fan of polls, as they are manipulative devices, but every poll I've ever seen shows Ron Paul polling very low with women, and higher with men. Libertarianism is rigid on its logical basis, and women tend to be more emotional. At least that is my reasoning behind the disparity of gender. (It's also why you don't see many women libertarians. Aren't you a heartless son of a bitch if you oppose WELFARE! -- Usually what I hear) People have been so conditioned to think that violent solutions are the only solutions. It's why we have to confront that at every corner. It's pretty much all I talk about these days. I imagine it was pretty similar in 1770 also. :p

[cindy25]

Republican primary voters are old, extremely religious esp. in Iowa and SC.
and pro-war

Sarah Palin is happy her son is in the army instead of college. and that is what the average Iowa caucus goer relates to.

Ron could easily beat Obama, or even Hillary. but not Palin in Iowa or SC or even NH

[free1]

We need a lot of T Shirts that say "Ron Paul was RIGHT!"

[ibaghdadi]

We need a lot of T Shirts that say "Ron Paul was RIGHT!"
A YouTube video would be a good start...

[Romulus]

Republican primary voters are old, extremely religious esp. in Iowa and SC.
and pro-war

Sarah Palin is happy her son is in the army instead of college. and that is what the average Iowa caucus goer relates to.

Ron could easily beat Obama, or even Hillary. but not Palin in Iowa or SC or even NH

Yep. Simply put the older generation does not understand how these wars are paid for or doesnt care. They think they are justified, and that they make us safer. It couldnt be further from the truth, and I'm not sure how they could be approached to supporting RP. Maybe from a fiscal p.o.v.


We need a lot of T Shirts that say "Ron Paul was RIGHT!"

I would do a shirt like that but I dont think it sends the right message. It's sort of divisive. The message of Freedom and Liberty is one that unites. Get folks to realize that and they'll understand he was and is right.

[Slutter McGee]

no chance within the Israeli loving Evangelical and Neo-con infested GOP....

I know a lot of religious conservatives who support Israel but don't believe our government should.

Can you go one damn thread without talking about the Jews? Can you?

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[Live_Free_Or_Die]

I was just out having a beer over the weekend listening to a couple Army veterans telling me what great constitutional conservatives they are. I listened for quite a while and once I fully knew their positions I started into them with.... Do you like Ron Paul? Where the fuck were you in 2007/08 during the Ron Paul presidential campaign? They think Ron Paul is a nut. Good on economics and a nut on foreign policy. Not the first time I have heard this bullshit.

Foreign policy is controversial. We will likely be waiting until the government checks bounce before the foreign policy argument is won.

Religious fanatics want to take over the world for their religion.
Merchants want to take over the world for trade.
The Aristocracy wants to take over the world to implement uniform theft.
There are many different categories of reasons to take over the world a person can fall under.

[ibaghdadi]

Foreign policy is controversial. We will likely be waiting until the government checks bounce before the foreign policy argument is won.
It is controversial, but Ron Paul continuously stresses that it's of essence. The main enemy of small government is warfare. In fact, of late he's been asserting his foreign policy positions even more. Obviously he believes it to be as important, perhaps integral, to economic policy.

[oyarde]

Republican primary voters are old, extremely religious esp. in Iowa and SC.
and pro-war

Sarah Palin is happy her son is in the army instead of college. and that is what the average Iowa caucus goer relates to.

Ron could easily beat Obama, or even Hillary. but not Palin in Iowa or SC or even NH

Having a job pays better than being a student .

[QueenB4Liberty]

Lets not forget our deficit and these endless wars we are in. Both very unpopular.

I really don't think the wars are unpopular since we're now "out" or Iraq. :( Liberals seem to like Afghanistan and I'm having a very hard time convincing them otherwise.

[libertybrewcity]

NO! Ron Paul is a Republican. He has 13 percent in some primary polls. He will outraise most, if not all the republicans (maybe except romney and palin). But, what is not made in donations will be made up by pure, hardworking grassroots supporters like us and thousands more in every state.

I don't see why every thinks Ron Paul can't do this? I just don't see why even Ron Paul supporters are saying he can't win? Is it really that farfetched of an idea?

I wasn't turned on to RP until after he dropped out. At any moment I am willing donate my life savings and spend every minute of free time getting people to vote.

He really has a chance. If he wins the Ames straw poll, that 13 percent will likely double. He could probably win the Iowa Caucuses with anywhere from 25-30 percent of the vote. (What straw poll haven't we won?)

[oyarde]

Do not know if it can be done , but definately think it is worth the try.

[trey4sports]

Not that I am a fan of polls, as they are manipulative devices, but every poll I've ever seen shows Ron Paul polling very low with women, and higher with men. Libertarianism is rigid on its logical basis, and women tend to be more emotional. At least that is my reasoning behind the disparity of gender. (It's also why you don't see many women libertarians. Aren't you a heartless son of a bitch if you oppose WELFARE! -- Usually what I hear) People have been so conditioned to think that violent solutions are the only solutions. It's why we have to confront that at every corner. It's pretty much all I talk about these days. I imagine it was pretty similar in 1770 also. :p

actually ron was polling 2nd among females only trailing mittens in the 2012 GOP poll in N.H

[libertybrewcity]

A Ron Paul announcement equals a Ron Paul win.

[KramerDSP]

I enjoy this discussion, because I think it is an exercise in fine-tuning and honing the best arguments thrown our way from friends and co-workers. We gotta practice somewhere!

I also feel like the announcement will trigger an avalanche of "sleepers" who were just waiting for 2011 to roll around. This time, Paul will have $10,000,000 US in his war chest, running Iowa and NH (and some national) television and radio advertisements before the first debates even begin in May of 2011. Last time, he raised $5,000,000 in the entire third quarter, and the two money bomb $20,000,000.000 4'th quarter came a little too late to spend effectively. This time, Paul could conceivably raise $50,000,000,000 over the primaries with the right amount of support and momentum.

That first debate will be like the Super Bowl for a lot of people. And many more will be tuned in, even if they hate the GOP, just to watch the fireworks.

[keh10]

(What straw poll haven't we won?)

Well technically we lost the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll by a whopping 1 vote!

[Inkblots]

Well technically we lost the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll by a whopping 1 vote!

And that's an easy fix - we either stop relying so much on college kids, or all chip in and buy them some alarm clocks :rolleyes:

[free1]

A YouTube video would be a good start...

Great idea! You could show a short clip where Ron says something, then show a recent news clip where that thing happened.

[ibaghdadi]

Great idea! You could show a short clip where Ron says something, then show a recent news clip where that thing happened.
I was thinking about something similar to the "Peter Schiff was Right" videos, something that can go viral...

I can do the editing if someone helps with the research...

[KramerDSP]

I was thinking about something similar to the "Peter Schiff was Right" videos, something that can go viral...

I can do the editing if someone helps with the research...

Below is a link to a thread I started a while back in the realm of what's been discussed here.

"Ron Paul Predicted This" (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=81009&highlight=predicted)