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View Full Version : New Ron Paul polling in PA and IL



Imperial
08-20-2010, 11:28 PM
From PublicPolicyPolling


Now it should be noted that most of the big name Republicans test within the margin of error of each other in Pennsylvania. Huckabee and Palin lead the way with 17%, followed by Romney at 16%, Santorum at 15%, Gingrich at 14%, and Paul at 6%. But you would expect a serious Presidential contender to poll far better than that in a state he represented for 12 years in the US Senate...

We also tested the Republican field in Pennsylvania without Santorum and those numbers truly confirm how up for grabs the 2012 GOP nomination is- Romney gets 20% followed by Gingrich, Huckabee, and Palin all at 19%. At least in his home state it doesn't appear Santorum's entrance would hurt any candidate in particular- when he's not included 24% of his support goes to Romney, 21% to Gingrich, 17% to Palin, 12% to Paul, and 10% to Huckabee.

We looked at the GOP field in Illinois as well. There Gingrich leads the way with 23% to 21% for Huckabee, 18% for Palin, 16% for Romney, and 7% for Paul. Tight race there just like it is everywhere, but it does confirm that Gingrich has pretty strong support nationwide and would be much more than a regional candidate if he decided to get in.

Assuming Santorum does not run (I dont think he ultimately will), Paul is running pretty well in Pennsylvania. However, he has to do well early on for those numbers to really matter, as he will need frontrunner status by that point. See the full results here (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PAIL_820.pdf).
Kregisen
08-20-2010, 11:33 PM
When are the first republican debates relative to the first primaries?
Mike4Freedom
08-20-2010, 11:37 PM
We still need to build up his name recongnition. We could use billboards everywhere. It needs to be huge.

A lot of people I talk to stil ldon't know who Ron Paul is, as suprising as that is. A lot of republicans I know know who he is but just dismiss him.

We have a lot of work to do. We have a much better chance in 2012 than we ever did in 2008 though.
Kludge
08-20-2010, 11:39 PM
Way too early for these results to mean anything substantial. Though, it is interesting that Paul polls much higher with people who identify with liberalism over conservatism. -- Actually, the crosstabs are really bizarre. Huckabee takes 25% of the liberal vote w/o Santorum, Palin @ 17%, rest <9%. Also kind of surprising Romney polled lower with women than men while Palin polled lower with men than women. Pretty low sample size, so.... eh.

They should have checked favorability ratings, instead.
Imperial
08-21-2010, 12:24 AM
I was really surprised by Dr. Paul's bump without Santorum. Five percentage points is a pretty big difference.

Favorables are of limited use in a primary. You can like several candidates, but the voting system gives you only one vote. Besides, as far as Ron Paul is concerned his favorables are generally a little bit lower than the rest of the candidates.
Kludge
08-21-2010, 12:41 AM
I was really surprised by Dr. Paul's bump without Santorum. Five percentage points is a pretty big difference.

Favorables are of limited use in a primary. You can like several candidates, but the voting system gives you only one vote. Besides, as far as Ron Paul is concerned his favorables are generally a little bit lower than the rest of the candidates.

It's very possible none of the names tested will win the GOP primary. There isn't enough data to determine much of anything from this poll because we have very little idea who will run. Favorability ratings would at least give usable data on how Paul's currently viewed among liberals, "moderates," and conservatives.
Inkblots
08-21-2010, 12:42 AM
We still need to build up his name recongnition. We could use billboards everywhere. It needs to be huge.

A lot of people I talk to stil ldon't know who Ron Paul is, as suprising as that is.

This is true, but as far as getting Dr. Paul's name out there, even the fact that he's now routinely included in major 2012 Presidential polls is a pretty significant boost. Who would have seen that coming four years ago, eh?
t0rnado
08-21-2010, 01:14 AM
In the 2008 PA GOP Primary, Ron Paul received 125,204 votes, which was about 16% of the vote. At that point, it was only him and McCain on the ballot though.

According to the PPP Poll, in Illinois, Ron Paul gets 27% of the 18-29 age group vote.
oyarde
08-23-2010, 02:32 PM
Santorum is well liked and respected in Pennsylvania and the midwest.I do not think he, Palin or Huck will run.Paul should be able to pck up Santorum fiscal consevative , small govt voters.
Elwar
08-23-2010, 02:46 PM
What's a "New Ron Paul"?
Bman
08-23-2010, 02:51 PM
I call this poll a bunch of bull shit. During the primary season, in Pennsylvania, Ron Paul candidates earned 20% of the vote on average.

This is complete nonsense.
oyarde
08-23-2010, 03:52 PM
Doubtful that anyone could beat a democrat in general election in Illinois.