jmdrake
08-20-2010, 09:48 AM
Personal note: Please read the article with an open mind before attempting to pass judgment.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2010/08/where_did_all_that_oil_go_down.html
Where did all that oil go? Down a slippery slope
Published: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 4:40 AM
Paul Mulshine/The Star Ledger
Most journalists hate science the way my dog Betty hates taking a bath. When the threat looms, Betty reacts by running under the bed. Journalists react by finding some "expert" who will explain things in the manner most likely to make the reader or listener feel some great danger is imminent.
I, on the other hand, have always enjoyed science. I have a firm background in science reporting. I therefore remained skeptical when the alarmists got to work on the Gulf oil spill. By early June, they were warning that in three months the spill would cover the entire Gulf and spread far into the Atlantic. Graphics showed oil on the water from Texas to Bermuda.
In fact, less than two months later there was no oil visible at all on the Gulf. I can drag Betty out from under the bed. But I can’t drag all those reporters and TV talking heads down to the Gulf to show them the clear blue waters as well as all the businesses going broke because of their sensationalistic reporting.
Instead of admitting they got it wrong about the visible oil, though, the journalists in question started looking for invisible oil. They began doing think-pieces asking where all that oil went.
That’s easy to answer from a scientific perspective. About three-quarters of the approximately 5 million barrels of oil either evaporated, was burned at the surface, or was eaten by microbes, according to a recent report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That leaves about 1.25 million barrels in the Gulf.
That’s not much oil. It would fill a mere 95 Olympic-sized swimming pools. On the surface, a gallon of oil can create a slick that covers a square mile, which looks impressive. But once diluted in the vast Gulf, the oil falls to a concentration below 1 part per million.
When I was in the Gulf Coast region last week, I heard all sorts of theories, primarily from fishermen who had claims in against BP, about a vast blanket of oil on the seafloor that is destroying marine life. Some of these theories made it into the popular press. But no such blanket exists.
So that fallback position doesn’t hold up. Not to worry, though. The alarmists got a chance to fall back even further when the University of South Florida released a study showing not a blanket of oil on the bottom, but tiny droplets that when magnified looked like stars in the sky. The alarmists then went on to predict that said droplets will cause dreadful effects on marine life for years to come.
No, they won’t. In fact, after some research I can say with confidence that the long-term negative effects of the spill on the Gulf waters will be negligible. There may be some positive effects, however.
I learned that from a study done in 2000 by Roger Mitchell, vice president of program development at the Earth Satellite Corp. in Rockville, Md. In the study, Mitchell showed that natural oil seepage introduces into the Gulf about 1.8 million barrels of oil a year.
"The wildlife have adapted and evolved and have no problem dealing with the oil," Mitchell said in an article published before the spill. He’s not commenting on the current controversy, but he directed me to studies showing the way in which nature deals with a natural substance.
Microbes have evolved in the Gulf to eat the oil. Small animals like shrimp eat those microbes. Feeding the microbes oil is like feeding the cows grass. More grass equals more milk. In both cases, what we have is one carbon-based entity after another moving the carbon in question up the food chain until we have either shrimp scampi or perhaps a pleasant brie.
Carbon gets a bad rap among the environmentalists. In fact, carbon is the most organic thing on the planet. The fish are made of it and so are we. Plant either of us in the ground and eventually we’ll become oil, just like the dinosaurs before us.
So that is a simple explanation in scientific terms of the situation in the Gulf. It should be comprehensible even to the great unwashed.
If you are among them, all I can say is: At least Betty has an excuse.
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2010/08/where_did_all_that_oil_go_down.html
Where did all that oil go? Down a slippery slope
Published: Thursday, August 19, 2010, 4:40 AM
Paul Mulshine/The Star Ledger
Most journalists hate science the way my dog Betty hates taking a bath. When the threat looms, Betty reacts by running under the bed. Journalists react by finding some "expert" who will explain things in the manner most likely to make the reader or listener feel some great danger is imminent.
I, on the other hand, have always enjoyed science. I have a firm background in science reporting. I therefore remained skeptical when the alarmists got to work on the Gulf oil spill. By early June, they were warning that in three months the spill would cover the entire Gulf and spread far into the Atlantic. Graphics showed oil on the water from Texas to Bermuda.
In fact, less than two months later there was no oil visible at all on the Gulf. I can drag Betty out from under the bed. But I can’t drag all those reporters and TV talking heads down to the Gulf to show them the clear blue waters as well as all the businesses going broke because of their sensationalistic reporting.
Instead of admitting they got it wrong about the visible oil, though, the journalists in question started looking for invisible oil. They began doing think-pieces asking where all that oil went.
That’s easy to answer from a scientific perspective. About three-quarters of the approximately 5 million barrels of oil either evaporated, was burned at the surface, or was eaten by microbes, according to a recent report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That leaves about 1.25 million barrels in the Gulf.
That’s not much oil. It would fill a mere 95 Olympic-sized swimming pools. On the surface, a gallon of oil can create a slick that covers a square mile, which looks impressive. But once diluted in the vast Gulf, the oil falls to a concentration below 1 part per million.
When I was in the Gulf Coast region last week, I heard all sorts of theories, primarily from fishermen who had claims in against BP, about a vast blanket of oil on the seafloor that is destroying marine life. Some of these theories made it into the popular press. But no such blanket exists.
So that fallback position doesn’t hold up. Not to worry, though. The alarmists got a chance to fall back even further when the University of South Florida released a study showing not a blanket of oil on the bottom, but tiny droplets that when magnified looked like stars in the sky. The alarmists then went on to predict that said droplets will cause dreadful effects on marine life for years to come.
No, they won’t. In fact, after some research I can say with confidence that the long-term negative effects of the spill on the Gulf waters will be negligible. There may be some positive effects, however.
I learned that from a study done in 2000 by Roger Mitchell, vice president of program development at the Earth Satellite Corp. in Rockville, Md. In the study, Mitchell showed that natural oil seepage introduces into the Gulf about 1.8 million barrels of oil a year.
"The wildlife have adapted and evolved and have no problem dealing with the oil," Mitchell said in an article published before the spill. He’s not commenting on the current controversy, but he directed me to studies showing the way in which nature deals with a natural substance.
Microbes have evolved in the Gulf to eat the oil. Small animals like shrimp eat those microbes. Feeding the microbes oil is like feeding the cows grass. More grass equals more milk. In both cases, what we have is one carbon-based entity after another moving the carbon in question up the food chain until we have either shrimp scampi or perhaps a pleasant brie.
Carbon gets a bad rap among the environmentalists. In fact, carbon is the most organic thing on the planet. The fish are made of it and so are we. Plant either of us in the ground and eventually we’ll become oil, just like the dinosaurs before us.
So that is a simple explanation in scientific terms of the situation in the Gulf. It should be comprehensible even to the great unwashed.
If you are among them, all I can say is: At least Betty has an excuse.