New National 2012 Poll: Ron Paul at 4%

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/republican-jumble.html


The field for the 2012 Republican nomination is more jumbled up than ever in PPP's monthly polling on it with the leading four candidates all within two points of each other. Mike Huckabee's at 23%, Mitt Romney at 22%, and Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin at 21%. Ron Paul is a distant fifth at 4%.

[djdellisanti4]

And miles to go before I sleep...

[LibertyForever]

This can't be right. IF it is this country deserves to fall. I thought he was consistently polling around 10% give or take a point or two.

[oyarde]

This can't be right. IF it is this country deserves to fall. I thought he was consistently polling around 10% give or take a point or two.

I would have thought higher.

[nate895]

I can't remember when PPP was the poll on the money, they have a Democratic leaning, and I think their methodology is meant to make Republicans look bad. Almost all the crazy "50% of Republicans think Obama is the antichrist"-type stuff is from PPP, when no one else polls that kind of garbage.

[SamuraisWisdom]

With Ron polling in the 8-10% area for the past couple of months I find 4% really unlikely, especially with the recent CNN poll putting him at 10%. So either CNN and PPP are using completely different methods of polling or one of them is way off.

[South Park Fan]

PPP has really gone to shit lately. I suspect that they will be in for a rude awakening in November, when they're ridiculous projections about Democratic turnout in Kentucky and North Carolina bite them in the ass.

[Michigan11]

Could depend on how they did this poll, most do not care about a presidential poll right now, and prolly just hit one of the first numbers to end it. Ron Paul can win this this time, no doubt.

[FSP-Rebel]

Yep, I'm calling bullS(hit) on this one.

[MRoCkEd]

outlier

[Epic]

PPP just signed with with Daily Kos, that could affect things.

Before they signed up with Daily Kos, Ron Paul had 13% in New Hampshire.

Also, CNN just had RP with 10% nationally.

[RedStripe]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I have some important and startling news.

The Republican base consists almost entirely of morons.

That is all.

[sailingaway]

PPP has a really skrewy house effect. Whatever, it will be what it will be. But that is way off from the others.

[Legend1104]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I have some important and startling news.

The Republican base consists almost entirely of morons.

That is all.

I find that hard to disbelieve.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I have some important and startling news.

The Republican base consists almost entirely of morons.

That is all.


I find that hard to disbelieve.

http://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/010808_decisions15.jpg

[low preference guy]

a fucking nation of morons.

[james1906]

Was this poll taken at a Hannity freedom concert?

[Kregisen]

bullllllllllshit

[YumYum]

Did anybody catch this in the article?

: "Only 54% of those surveyed said they want one of the current front runners to be their nominee while 24% explicitly said they wanted someone outside of the Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich/Palin/Paul quintet to be the nominee and the other 22% said they weren't sure."

Ron Paul is viewed as a member of a "neocon quintet"?!?

This is what happens when you mingle and rub shoulders with neocons. People will think you are one.

[libertybrewcity]

Can't be right.

National Polls previously:
PPP July 2010 national poll - 7% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/gingrich-leads.html
PPP June 2010 national poll - 6% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/monthly-gop-poll.html
PPP May 2010 national poll - 8% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/jumble-for-gop.html
CNN April 2010 national poll: 8% for Ron Paul - 9 way race (w/Santorum, Pence, Barbour, Pawlenty, Gingrich): http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/04/13/rel7d.pdf (PDF)
PPP March 2010 national poll - 11% for Ron Paul - 4 way race (no Gingrich): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/romney-leads-tight-republican-race.html
Gallup February 2010 poll: 2% for Ron Paul (open ended poll, so it's lower): http://www.gallup.com/poll/125777/Voters-Divided-Obama-Republican-Candidate-2012.aspx

[Number19]

Doesn't anyone actually read the poll questions and not just the numbers?

Two questions jumped out. 1) only 4% of those questioned were younger than 30; with 74% being over 45. 2) Only 6% were unemployed and only 1% were students.

So this was a poll of employed baby boomers at the peak of their earning years and doing reasonably OK despite the recession. These are Reagan conservatives.

These numbers are dead on and represent the hurdle Paul has to overcome if he is to make a serious challenge. Don't kill the messenger.

[YumYum]

Can't be right.

True. Polls don't mean shit. If they did, Ron Paul would have won in 2008.

[CoreyBowen999]

Doesn't anyone actually read the poll questions and not just the numbers?

Two questions jumped out. 1) only 4% of those questioned were younger than 30; with 74% being over 45. 2) Only 6% were unemployed and only 1% were students.

So this was a poll of employed baby boomers at the peak of their earning years and doing reasonably OK. These are Reagan conservatives.

These numbers are dead on and represent the hurdle Paul has to overcome if he is to make a serious challenge. Don't kill the messenger.

exactly guys. There is a reason behind the numbers.

[james1906]

Doesn't anyone actually read the poll questions and not just the numbers?

Two questions jumped out. 1) only 4% of those questioned were younger than 30; with 74% being over 45. 2) Only 6% were unemployed and only 1% were students.

So this was a poll of employed baby boomers at the peak of their earning years and doing reasonably OK. These are Reagan conservatives.

These numbers are dead on and represent the hurdle Paul has to overcome if he is to make a serious challenge. Don't kill the messenger.

Didn't catch this. So it's selfish baby boomers taking this poll. They can burden future generations with debt, because gosh darn it, they ended a war by using drugs and having sex, so they earned it!

[Kregisen]

Doesn't anyone actually read the poll questions and not just the numbers?

Don't be silly, that would be using logic.







Bullllllshit!

[Number19]

Didn't catch this. So it's selfish baby boomers taking this poll. They can burden future generations with debt, because gosh darn it, they ended a war by using drugs and having sex, so they earned it!You don't get it. These are Reagan Conservatives. 70% say they have never used drugs. They support a strong military policy, tax reductions and strict laws regulating social behavior.

[Epic]

Fully Updated:

POLL TRACKER

State polls:
5% in Iowa (Lohuizen for theiowarepublican.com, August 2010, 10 choices) http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/mike-huckabee-early-iowa-front.html?wprss=thefix
13% in New Hampshire (PPP, July 23-25 2010, 7 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/romney-continues-to-lead-in-nh.html
7% in Nevada (PPP, July 16-18 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/2012-floridanevada-gop-numbes.html
6% in Florida (PPP, July 16-18 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/2012-floridanevada-gop-numbes.html
11% in Pennsylvania (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
8% in Texas (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 6 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
10% in Texas (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
7% in Iowa (PPP, May 31 2010, 7 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
7% in South Carolina (PPP, May 31 2010, 6 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
6% in Michigan (PPP, May 31 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
6% in New Hampshire (Magellan, May 2010, 7 choices) http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Magellan-New-Hampshire-GOP-US-Senate-Primary-Survey-Release-0528101.pdf
10% in California (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/gingrich-looking-serious.html
9% in Colorado (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices) http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_518.pdf (PDF)
8% in North Carolina (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/looking-at-our-gop-polling.html
8% in Kentucky (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/paul-still-up-big.html
6% in Kentucky (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/paul-continues-to-lead-big.html
9% in Arizona (PPP, April 2010, 5 choices ) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/2012-gop-in-arizona.html
7% in New Hampshire (PPP, April 2010, 8 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/romney-up-big-in-new-hampshire.html

National Polls:
4% (PPP August 2010 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/republican-jumble.html
10% (CNN August 2010 9 choices): http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/08/13/cnn-poll-whos-on-top-in-hunt-for-2012-gop-nomination/
7% (PPP July 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/gingrich-leads.html
6% (PPP June 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/monthly-gop-poll.html
8% (PPP May 2010, 5 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/jumble-for-gop.html
8% (CNN April 2010, 9 choices): http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/04/13/rel7d.pdf (PDF)
11% (PPP March 2010, 4 choices) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/romney-leads-tight-republican-race.html
8% (CNN March 2010 9 choices) http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/25/rel5i.pdf (PDF)
2% (Gallup February 2010, open-ended poll) http://www.gallup.com/poll/125777/Voters-Divided-Obama-Republican-Candidate-2012.aspx

Versus Obama:
Obama(D) 42 Romney(R) 36 Paul(I) 13 (PPP August 2010) http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/08/13/cnn-poll-whos-on-top-in-hunt-for-2012-gop-nomination/http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/08/monthly-2012.html
Obama 46 Paul 36 (PPP June 2010, Paul wins indeps 46-28) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/obama-up-in-2012-contests.html
Obama 42 Paul 41 (Rasmussen March 2010, highlighted by Drudge) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41
Obama 46 Paul 38 (PPP November 2009) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/monthly-2012-numbers.html

[james1906]

You don't get it. These are Reagan Conservatives. 70% say they have never used drugs. They support a strong military policy, tax reductions and strict laws regulating social behavior.

Yes, they traded in the VW bus for a BMW and became yuppies.

[Epic]

1. Rand Wins in November
2. Ron wins CPAC 2011
3. Ron announces
4. Moneybomb gets 5 mil +
5. Win Iowa Straw Poll

Let's do those 5, and then we'll have something

[Kregisen]

Another key statistic worth noting:

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable......................................... ............... 36%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 25%
Not sure .................................................. ........ 40%"

40% of these Republicans don't know anything about Ron....compared to about 5-20% for all the other top candidates. Polls like this are almost irrelevant just because many of these voters won't know more about Ron til the debates anyway.


"If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 4%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 22%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 58%
Older than 65................................................ .. 16%"

"Have you ever smoked Marijuana? If yes,
press 1. If no, press 2. If you don’t care to
say, press 3.
Yes .................................................. ............... 21%
No .................................................. ................. 70%
N/A................................................. ................. 9%"

[Kregisen]

1. Rand Wins in November
2. Ron wins CPAC 2011
3. Ron announces
4. Moneybomb gets 5 mil +
5. Win Iowa Straw Poll

Let's do those 5, and then we'll have something

What's nice is, those are all extremely possible.....it would surprise me if we DON'T do all 5 of those.

[Epic]

What's nice is, those are all extremely possible.....it would surprise me if we DON'T do all 5 of those.

Yeah that's the thing - each of those is like 70% +

And if all 5 happen, then Ron will be even with the top 4 in terms of winning probability. And then the grassroots will be the difference.

[chadhb]

If Ron Paul doesn't win in 2012, not sure if he is running. I will leave the country, this is not the country I even reconize anymore. I get banned here for Anti-Semitism, because I said Peter Schiff is Jewish, liberty forums haa what a joke.

[specsaregood]

5. Win Iowa Straw Poll

Let's say that happened....Would the news tell anybody about it?
http://72.73.236.82/photos/iowastrawpollresults.jpg

Hell, 1st place would be even easier to hide.

[nate895]

Another key statistic worth noting:

"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable......................................... ............... 36%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 25%
Not sure .................................................. ........ 40%"

40% of these Republicans don't know anything about Ron....compared to about 5-20% for all the other top candidates. Polls like this are almost irrelevant just because many of these voters won't know more about Ron til the debates anyway.


"If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 4%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 22%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 58%
Older than 65................................................ .. 16%"

"Have you ever smoked Marijuana? If yes,
press 1. If no, press 2. If you don’t care to
say, press 3.
Yes .................................................. ............... 21%
No .................................................. ................. 70%
N/A................................................. ................. 9%"

Some of the "not sure" people might be Republicans who like Ron Paul in general, but are not too enthused by his overall foreign policy (they might be opposed to nation-building, but still interventionist in a broader sense) or war on drugs stance. This might lead them to be somewhere in between "favorable" or "unfavorable."

[thehunter]

This is a disappointing bias in the media but the question is how do we work around this to get Dr. Paul further up in the standings of GOP candidates come primary season? Gripping about a biased media won't do us much good, regardless of how painfully true it is!

[Number19]

As refererence, in the poll where Paul drew 8%, those under the age 30 were at 9%; and the poll in which he drew 7%, 5% were under 30.

Paul pulls his support from cross-over conservative democrats, the younger generation , from cross over Libertarians and from Independents. His support among Republicans are the old Goldwater conservatives and the old libertarian wing of the party.