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Galileo Galilei
08-15-2010, 12:14 AM
Ron Paul polls best among independent voters!

Favorable/Unfavorable

Ron Paul 32%/31% (+1)
Obama 44%/49% (-5)
Romney 34%/40% (-6)
Huckabee 24%/38% (-14)
Palin 33%/56% (-23)
Gingrich 24%/51% (-27)

This bodes well for Ron Paul in 2011:

* if Obama has no real primary competition, then Ron Paul can win the GOP nomination riding the independent vote

* Ron Paul is the most viable GOP candidate in a general election, followed by Romney

* Palin and Gingrich aren't viable at all, and Huckabee is weak

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_812.pdf

OTHER FACTS TO PONDER

* Ron Paul can win the Iowa straw poll in August 2011. His main competition is Romney, Huckabee, and Pawlenty.

* Ron Paul was able to out-fund-raise even John McCain in the 4th quarter of 2007. He can do better in 2011, and a $10 million money-bomb is already set for December 16, 2010, the 237th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. Only Romney can compete or possibly exceed Ron Paul in fund-raising.

* There is another big straw poll coming up in mid-September, the Value Voters Summit, Ron Paul can win this. If Huckabee is serious about running, he needs to win or do well in this event.

* If Rand Paul can win, then Ron Paul can win.

* Ron Paul now has good domestic issues for TV debates, unlike 2007. Ron Paul can talk about auditing the Fed and auditing the SEC.

* Ending the war is a lot more popular among GOP voters now than it was in 2007, for many obvious reasons.

Galileo Galilei
08-15-2010, 10:08 AM
btw - PPP ran this poll to slime Ron Paul. They want GOP voters to think he might run third party.

squarepusher
08-15-2010, 10:13 AM
btw, 2012 will be the year of the independent, once more people realize the 1 party system fails

Kludge
08-15-2010, 10:23 AM
Notice nearly 40% of Ron's result is no opinion or undecided.

Compare to just 7% with Obama.

If 33% more people (people who follow politics enough to have an opinion of Obama, but NOT Ron Paul) knew about Ron Paul - do you really think he would have the highest favorability rating here?

silentshout
08-15-2010, 10:24 AM
Notice nearly 40% of Ron's result is no opinion or undecided.

Compare to just 7% with Obama.

If 33% more people (people who follow politics enough to have an opinion of Obama, but NOT Ron Paul) knew about Ron Paul - do you really think he would have the highest favorability rating here?

Yes.

Kregisen
08-15-2010, 10:54 AM
Yes.

Agreed

Kludge
08-15-2010, 11:07 AM
Yes.


Agreed

I don't think you guys paid attention to Rand's numbers as he became more well-known.

specsaregood
08-15-2010, 11:13 AM
I don't think you guys paid attention to Rand's numbers as he became more well-known.

I don't think you paid attention to the outright lies being spread about Rand by the media.

You asked:


If 33% more people (people who follow politics enough to have an opinion of Obama, but NOT Ron Paul) knew about Ron Paul
You didn't ask, "knew only lies and smears about ron paul"

Kludge
08-15-2010, 11:17 AM
I don't think you paid attention to the outright lies being spread about Rand by the media.

You asked:

You didn't ask, "knew only lies and smears about ron paul"

I'm not talking about before his primary even. As his name recognition increased beyond a certain point, his favorability #s dropped significantly. Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation - but it can be, and I think it's reasonable to assume Rand's ideas are too "radical" for most voters. Of course, I can't prove it.

Galileo Galilei
08-15-2010, 02:02 PM
I'm not talking about before his primary even. As his name recognition increased beyond a certain point, his favorability #s dropped significantly. Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation - but it can be, and I think it's reasonable to assume Rand's ideas are too "radical" for most voters. Of course, I can't prove it.

Rand's ideas are not too radical. Ron's might be, they need to be tweaked. But as of now, on Paul has the polling numbers to win the GOP nomination.

Rand's negatives are more due to the expected negative media coverage, not his "radical" ideas. But Rand is holding up, still maintaining an 8% to 10% lead in the polls.

teamrican1
08-15-2010, 02:15 PM
Rand's ideas are not too radical. Ron's might be, they need to be tweaked. But as of now, on Paul has the polling numbers to win the GOP nomination.


No he doesn't. Kludge is right. The 33% of independent voters that don't know who Ron Paul is are not our friend. They are the disinterested morons that take their cues from the MSM and will be counted as "negatives" once they hear about "newsletters" or "heroin legalization" or "working to abolish social security and medicare". If Ron were as well known as Palin, his numbers would be just as bad.

Galileo Galilei
08-15-2010, 02:17 PM
No he doesn't. Kludge is right. The 33% of independent voters that don't know who Ron Paul is are not our friend. They are the disinterested morons that take their cues from the MSM and will be counted as "negatives" once they hear about "newsletters" or "heroin legalization" or "working to abolish social security and medicare". If Ron were as well known as Palin, his numbers would be just as bad.

So which GOP candidate has better poll numbers among independents than Ron Paul?

teamrican1
08-15-2010, 02:28 PM
Romney and Palin both have higher favorables. Ron's better favorable to unfavorable ratio is simply a function of a large segment of people not knowing who he is.

Galileo Galilei
08-15-2010, 02:39 PM
Romney and Palin both have higher favorables. Ron's better favorable to unfavorable ratio is simply a function of a large segment of people not knowing who he is.

It is not just the ratio. Ron as well ahead of Gingrich and Palin in favorability, and roughly equal to Romney and Huckabee.

Huckabee has a big problem, because he gets most of his publicity from his Fox TV show. But Huckabee has to leave the show if he runs.

Romney is Ron's only real competition here. Also, Pawlenty is going to come into play when the MSM starts pushing him.

thehunter
08-15-2010, 03:09 PM
Not a surprise as every western nation is disillusioned with the current political leadership -- all of which converges at a central left-wing point on the map whenever elected to power. The danger is that for every Ron Paul that can fill the void, there's certainly another Mussolini who will get his chance one day (particularly if it's Europe we're talking about!).