GENERAL ELECTION - Prioritized List of Liberty Candidates [Archive]

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malkusm

08-07-2010, 04:40 PM

The following is an offshoot thread from my "Primaries in the next 3 weeks" thread (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=245428), which takes the winners in their GOP primaries and prioritizes them using district demographics, poll numbers, incumbent information, the importance of the office they seek, and how closely the candidate aligns with the views of Ron Paul. To paraphrase, these candidates are prioritized by a combination of electability and visibility.

Candidates who are expected to be in close races get much more on the "electability" end than a candidate in a safe GOP or Dem district. Candidates who are running for US Senate get more on the "visibility" end than one running for US House, who get more than one running for a state race.

At first I will only have the GOP candidates; I plan to add Libertarian and Independent candidates to the list in due time.

**Note: PVI = Cook Partisan Voter Index. For example, a PVI of R+8 means that, on average, the district favors the R candidate by about 8 points over the national average.

Without further ado, the rankings to date:

1) Rand Paul - Republican, U.S. Senate, Kentucky
http://www.randpaul2010.com/
PVI: R+8
Average poll results: Paul 47.0%, Conway 41.5%
Opponent: Jack Conway (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Leans GOP

2) Justin Amash - Republican, U.S. House, Michigan CD-3
http://amashforcongress.com/
PVI: R+6
Opponent: Pat Miles (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

3) Ken Buck - Republican, U.S. Senate, Colorado
http://buckforcolorado.com/
PVI: EVEN
Average poll results: Buck 44.0%, Bennet 43.3%
Opponent: Michael Bennet (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-Up

4) Sharron Angle - Republican, U.S. Senate, Nevada
http://sharronangle.com/
PVI: D+2
Average poll results: Reid 47.5%, Angle 46.0%
Opponent: Harry Reid (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-up

5) Paul LePage - Republican, Governor, Maine
http://www.lepage2010.com/
PVI: D+6
Recent poll results: LePage 38%, Mitchell 30%, Cutler 16%
Opponents: Libby Mitchell (D), non-incumbent; Eliot Cutler (I), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-up

6) Glen Bradley - Republican, State House, North Carolina District 49
http://glenbradley.net/
PVI: D+8
Recent poll results: Bradley 43%, May 35%
Opponent: John May (D), incumbent

7) Doug Cloud - Republican, U.S. House, Washington CD-6
http://www.dougcloud.com/
PVI: D+5
Opponent: Norm Dicks (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

8) Nikki Haley - Republican, Governor, South Carolina
http://www.nikkihaley.com/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: Haley 49%, Sheehen 35%
Opponent: Vincent Sheehen (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Likely GOP

9) John Koster - Republican, U.S. House, Washington CD-2
http://www.kosterforcongress.com/
PVI: D+3
Opponent: Rick Larsen (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Likely Dem

T-10) Nick Landeros - Republican, State House, Montana District 64
http://www.nicklanderos.com/
PVI: D+7
Opponent: Franke Wilmer (D), incumbent

T-10) Tim Fairfield - Republican, State House, Kentucky District 78
http://timforkentucky.com/
PVI: D+7
Opponent: Tom McKee (D), incumbent

12) B.J. Lawson - Republican, U.S. House, North Carolina CD-4
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: David Price (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

13) Mike Lee - Republican, U.S. Senate, Utah
http://www.mikelee2010.com/
PVI: R+21
Recent poll results: Lee 58%, Granato 28%
Opponent: Sam Granato (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

14) Steve Davisson - Republican, State House, Indiana District 73
http://www.stevedavisson.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Ryan D. Bower (D), non-incumbent

15) Brian Jacobs - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 25
http://votejacobs.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Tim Lanane (D), incumbent

16) Paul Curtman - Republican, State House, Missouri District 105
http://www.paulcurtman.com/
PVI: D+6
Opponent: Michael Frame (D), incumbent

17) Shawn Olson - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 4
http://www.olson4senate.com/
PVI: D+9
Opponent: Karen Tallian (D), incumbent

18) Melissa Leach - Republican, State House, Missouri District 137
http://www.melissaleach.info/
PVI: D+9
Opponent: Charlie Norr (D), incumbent

19) Mick Mulvaney - Republican, U.S. House, South Carolina CD-5
http://www.mulvaneyforcongress.com/
PVI: R+7
Recent poll results: Spratt 46%, Mulvaney 39%
Opponent: John Spratt (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-Up

T-20) Gary Clift - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-10
http://cliftforcongress.com/
PVI: D+11
Opponent: John Garamendi (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-20) Stephen Bailey - Republican, U.S. House, Colorado CD-2
http://www.stephenbaileyforcongress.com/
PVI: D+11
Opponent: Jared Polis (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

22) Kevin Patrick - Republican, State House, West Virginia District 44
http://www.kevinpatrick.info/
PVI: D+10
Opponent: Multi-candidate ballot

23) John O'Neill - Republican, State House, Illinois District 63
http://www.electjohnoneill.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Jack D. Franks (D), incumbent

24) Roger Gerber - Republican, State Senate, North Carolina District 18
http://gerberncsenate.com/
PVI: D+12
Opponent: Bob Atwater (D), incumbent

25) Jim DeMint - Republican, U.S. Senate (Incumbent), South Carolina
http://demint.senate.gov/public/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: DeMint 62%, Greene 20%
Opponent: Alvin Greene (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

26) Jim Tomes - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 49
http://www.jimtomes.com/
PVI: D+18
Opponent: Patty Avery (D), non-incumbent

27) Ron Paul - Republican, U.S. House (Incumbent), Texas CD-14
http://www.ronpaulforcongress.com/
PVI: R+18
Opponent: Robert Pruett (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

T-28) Delia Lopez - Republican, U.S. House, Oregon CD-3
http://www.dlopezforcongress.com/
PVI: D+19
Opponent: Earl Blumenauer (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-28) David Ratowitz - Republican, U.S. House, Illinois CD-5
http://www.ratowitzforcongress.com/
PVI: D+19
Opponent: Mike Quigley (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-30) Robyn Hamlin - Republican, U.S. House, Missouri CD-1
http://www.hamlinforcongress.com/
PVI: D+27
Opponent: William Lacy Clay (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-30) John Dennis - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-8
http://www.johndennis2010.com/
PVI: D+35
Opponent: Nancy Pelosi (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

32) Greg Walker - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 41
http://votegregwalker.com/
PVI: R+10
Opponent: Chris Roller (D), non-incumbent

T-33) Michael Gaster - Republican, State Senate, Georgia District 2
http://www.friendsofgaster.com/
PVI: D+27
Opponent: Lester Jackson (D), incumbent

T-33) Diana Williams - Republican, State Senate, Georgia District 43
http://www.votedianawilliams.com/
PVI: D+29
Opponent: Ronald Ramsey, Jr. (D), incumbent

35) Jon Hardister - Republican, State House, North Carolina District 57
http://www.jonhardister.com/
PVI: D+10
Opponent: Mary Price Harrison (D), incumbent

36) Ellie Black - Republican, State House, California District 27
http://backintheblack2010.com/
PVI: D+17
Opponent: Bill Monning (D), incumbent

37) Simone Gordon - Republican, State House, Oregon District 8
http://simonegordon.netboots.net/
PVI: D+24
Opponent: Paul Holvey (D), incumbent

38) Tim Huelskamp - Republican, U.S. House, Kansas CD-1
http://www.huelskamp.org/
PVI: R+23
Opponent: Alan Jilka (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

39) Morgan Philpot - Republican, U.S. House, Utah CD-2
http://www.philpotforcongress.com/
PVI: R+15
Opponent: Jim Matheson (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Likely Dem

40) John Duncan, Jr. - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), Tennessee CD-2
http://duncan.house.gov/
PVI: R+16
Opponent: David Hancock (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

41) Tom McClintock - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), California CD-4
http://www.tommcclintock.com/
PVI: R+10
Opponent: Clint Curtis (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

42) Robert Vaughn - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-38
http://www.electrobert.com/
PVI: D+18
Opponent: Grace Napolitano (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

43) Mike Fallon - Republican, U.S. House, Colorado CD-1
http://www.fallon4congress.com/
PVI: D+21
Opponent: Diana DeGette (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

44) Jason Chaffetz - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), Utah CD-3
http://chaffetz.house.gov/
PVI: R+26
Opponent: Karen Hyer (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

45) Bob Chandler - Republican, State House, California District 24
http://www.chandler2010.com/
PVI: D+14
Opponent: Jim Beall, Jr. (D), incumbent

46) Mike Delph - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 29
http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=68073
PVI: R+26
Opponent: Robin Shackleford (D), non-incumbent

47) Duane Beals - Republican, State House, Indiana District 6
http://www.duanebeals.com/
PVI: D+17
Opponent: B. Patrick Bauer(D), incumbent

48) Walter Jones - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), North Carolina CD-3
http://jones.house.gov/
PVI: R+16
Opponent: Johnny Rouse (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

--------------------------

Candidate TIERS (Level 1 = Pure, Level 2 = Strong Ally, Level 3 = Ally):

Level 1
1) Justin Amash
2) Glen Bradley
T-3) Nick Landeros
T-3) Tim Fairfield
5) B.J. Lawson
6) Brian Jacobs
7) Shawn Olson
8) Melissa Leach
9) Gary Clift
10) Stephen Bailey
11) Kevin Patrick
12) Roger Gerber
13) Ron Paul
T-14) Delia Lopez
T-14) David Ratowitz
T-16) Robyn Hamlin
T-16) John Dennis
T-18) Michael Gaster
T-18) Diana Williams
20) Ellie Black
21) Simone Gordon

Level 2
1) Rand Paul
2) Doug Cloud
3) Mike Lee
4) Steve Davisson
5) Paul Curtman
6) John O'Neill
7) Jim Tomes
8) Greg Walker
9) John Hardister
10) Morgan Philpot
11) John Duncan, Jr.
12) Robert Vaughn
13) Mike Fallon
14) Jason Chaffetz
15) Bob Chandler
16) Mike Delph
17) Duane Beals

Level 3
1) Ken Buck
2) Sharron Angle
3) Paul LePage
4) Nikki Haley
5) John Koster
6) Mick Mulvaney
7) Jim DeMint
8) Tim Huelskamp
9) Tom McClintock
10) Walter Jones

klamath

08-07-2010, 04:54 PM

Thank for the work. That is good information.

Old Ducker

08-07-2010, 06:16 PM

Kotin

08-07-2010, 06:30 PM

awesome.

Epic

08-07-2010, 06:33 PM

Lawson should be higher, and does anyone know Mulvaney's foreign policy?

malkusm

08-07-2010, 06:44 PM

Lawson should be higher, and does anyone know Mulvaney's foreign policy?

No, and I discounted Mulvaney for that. I basically have 3 levels of "legitimacy" as a liberty candidate. Mulvaney is on par with DeMint, Haley, Huelskamp, and McClintock - he got 0 points in that department because of questions in that area. However, he is a demonstrated liberty candidate due to his voting record against spending in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

As for B.J. Lawson, I put him in the highest "legitimacy" category, on par with Ron Paul. He's in a tough district and is running against an entrenched incumbent....but I agree that Lawson and Gary Clift should get a lot of support around here.

If we could get a poll of Lawson's district, that would factor into his ranking and possibly move him up - the only thing keeping him down where he is in the list is the "electability" aspect.

malkusm

08-07-2010, 06:50 PM

Full disclosure: My rankings of "legitimacy" were based on the candidates' declared positions and past statements on (1) foreign policy; (2) monetary policy; (3) civil liberties.

The candidates break into those 3 candidates as follows:

Level 1
Justin Amash
B.J. Lawson
Gary Clift
Nick Landeros
Tim Fairfield
Glen Bradley
Ron Paul
Delia Lopez
David Ratowitz
Melissa Leach
Kevin Patrick
Robyn Hamlin
John Dennis
Michael Gaster
Diana Williams

Level 2
Rand Paul
Mike Lee
Paul Curtman
Morgan Philpot
John O'Neill
John Duncan, Jr.

Level 3
Nikki Haley
Jim DeMint
Mick Mulvaney
Tim Huelskamp
Tom McClintock
Walter Jones
Jason Chaffetz

freshjiva

08-07-2010, 07:24 PM

3) Nikki Haley - Republican, Governor, South Carolina
http://www.nikkihaley.com/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: Haley 49%, Sheehen 35%
Opponent: Vincent Sheehen (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Likely GOP

7) B.J. Lawson - Republican, U.S. House, North Carolina CD-4
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: David Price (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

Meh, Haley was endorsed by Mitt Romney. Nuff said about her.
I agree with the OP that BJ Lawson should be higher on this list.

Overall, I would've hoped we had more principled Liberty candidates than what we do. Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand). Would have been great if we could add Schiff, Hostettler, and Kokesh to that list.

james1906

08-07-2010, 07:31 PM

Where's Angle?

malkusm

08-07-2010, 07:40 PM

Meh, Haley was endorsed by Mitt Romney. Nuff said about her.
I agree with the OP that BJ Lawson should be higher on this list.

Overall, I would've hoped we had more principled Liberty candidates than what we do. Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand). Would have been great if we could add Schiff, Hostettler, and Kokesh to that list.

I see what you're saying about Romney endorsing Haley, but Jeb Bush has campaigned for Rand Paul. You have to play that game to get elected to statewide office....it's the unfortunate nature of politics these days. Jack Hunter was promoting Haley leading up to the primary. I think she'll basically be along the lines of Mark Sanford - a strong fiscal conservative with a tendency to stand up for states' rights on occasion.

We have plenty of principled liberty candidates - just not plenty of principled liberty candidates who can win. I think that everyone on the list is on board with us at least about 80-85% and is miles ahead of the typical politician in Washington. Huelskamp and McClintock, despite not being perfect, will win. We also have about 15 primaries left where candidates will be added to this list.

Where's Angle?

I am open to adding Angle if the forums think it is prudent. Is she better or worse than DeMint? That's basically my barometer. Worse than DeMint doesn't get on the list.

malkusm

08-07-2010, 07:42 PM

Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand).

Also (and not to beat it to death), I'm not sure how you're counting and I'm not sure if you really reviewed the list - Mike Lee is basically a shoo-in as a second Senate candidate.

freshjiva

08-07-2010, 07:54 PM

I am open to adding Angle if the forums think it is prudent. Is she better or worse than DeMint? That's basically my barometer. Worse than DeMint doesn't get on the list.

I think Angle winning is significantly more important than DeMint, not because she is more Liberty-minded, but because her victory would be unseating a powerful big-government Democrat: Harry Reid.

TCE

08-07-2010, 08:23 PM

I think Angle winning is significantly more important than DeMint, not because she is more Liberty-minded, but because her victory would be unseating a powerful big-government Democrat: Harry Reid.

Who will likely be replaced by an even worse Democrat in the form of Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer in the Majority Leader post. I am glad everyday that neither of the latter two are Majority Leader. We would have a real cause for concern if they were.

klamath

08-07-2010, 08:54 PM

malkusm

08-07-2010, 09:01 PM

Here are a few I think you missed.
Duncan TN.
Bachmann MN.
Flake AZ
There is another Rep in Utah that has come out against the war I can't remember his name and a rep from NC as well.
All of these people had high 70 to 80% RP voting records before Obama was elected.

You're thinking of Chaffetz in Utah and Walter Jones in North Carolina.

Flake still has a primary to go through, and I was planning on adding him to the list once he got through that.

The other two (Duncan and Bachmann) I don't consider liberty candidates, although they do ally with us on some issues. I liked Bachmann until she presented a slideshow at CPAC and pointed to the "Miss Me Yet?" billboard, claiming how proud she was that the billboard was in her state. :rolleyes:

james1906

08-07-2010, 09:13 PM

trey4sports

08-07-2010, 09:18 PM

alvin Greene!

he aint schmoozin with wall-street fat cats!

klamath

08-07-2010, 09:30 PM

You're thinking of Chaffetz in Utah and Walter Jones in North Carolina.

Flake still has a primary to go through, and I was planning on adding him to the list once he got through that.

The other two (Duncan and Bachmann) I don't consider liberty candidates, although they do ally with us on some issues. I liked Bachmann until she presented a slideshow at CPAC and pointed to the "Miss Me Yet?" billboard, claiming how proud she was that the billboard was in her state. :rolleyes:

It appears this is your list of what you consider freedom candidates. To each his own.
Duncan has had pretty much the highest RP voting score of anyone but RP.

The average House score for this index is a dismal 38 percent and the average Senate score is an even worse 34 percent. Three representatives earned perfect scores: John Duncan (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R.-Ariz.), and Ron Paul (R.-Texas). In the Senate, Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) scored 100 percent. The overall results should be much higher, of course, considering that our standard for rating lawmakers is the U.S. Constitution and every member of Congress takes an oath to uphold the Constitution.

malkusm

08-07-2010, 09:34 PM

It appears this is your list of what you consider freedom candidates. To each his own.
Duncan has had pretty much the highest RP voting score of anyone but RP.

The average House score for this index is a dismal 38 percent and the average Senate score is an even worse 34 percent. Three representatives earned perfect scores: John Duncan (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R.-Ariz.), and Ron Paul (R.-Texas). In the Senate, Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) scored 100 percent. The overall results should be much higher, of course, considering that our standard for rating lawmakers is the U.S. Constitution and every member of Congress takes an oath to uphold the Constitution.

I said that I would add Flake after his primary.

I didn't know much about Duncan, but he looks great. I will add Duncan, Chaffetz, and Walter Jones for now. I think Coburn could also probably go on the list. The funny thing is that pretty much all of these candidates are inconsequential in the scheme of the list, because they are all in heavily conservative districts and don't align with our views 100%.

TCE

08-07-2010, 09:36 PM

I said that I would add Flake after his primary.

I didn't know much about Duncan, but he looks great. I will add Duncan, Chaffetz, and Walter Jones for now. I think Coburn could also probably go on the list. The funny thing is that pretty much all of these candidates are inconsequential in the scheme of the list, because they are all in heavily conservative districts and don't align with our views 100%.

Coburn voted for the bailout, so I am against adding him to the list. Flake is much more of a DeMint-style Republican than a pro-liberty type, so he probably qualifies for your second tier after he wins his primary.

malkusm

08-07-2010, 09:43 PM

Coburn voted for the bailout, so I am against adding him to the list. Flake is much more of a DeMint-style Republican than a pro-liberty type, so he probably qualifies for your second tier after he wins his primary.

I knew there was a reason that I liked DeMint much more than Coburn. Coburn stays off. :)

I've added Duncan, Jones and Chaffetz in their respective positions (like I said, due to the formula that I've set up, they are near the bottom since they are likely to win and don't align with us all the way to begin with). Glad that the discussion is going on :)

GunnyFreedom

08-07-2010, 10:34 PM

I should have the results of a REAL poll of my district on Monday. Not an 'internal' poll, or a poll from a softball pro-Rep pollster, but an actual commissioned poll from PPP.

AJ Antimony

08-07-2010, 11:31 PM

Pauls' Revere

08-07-2010, 11:57 PM

**awesome**

bravo zulu!

WaltM

08-08-2010, 12:13 AM

Tom McClintock is a Liberty Candidate?

low preference guy

08-08-2010, 12:16 AM

alternative thread title: I WANT TO MAKE A THREAD FULL OF COMPLAINTS AND BICKERING

Galileo Galilei

08-08-2010, 12:40 AM

If you are looking for a true liberty candidate that is likely to win; Ed Thompson:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=256262

Imperial

08-08-2010, 01:53 AM

No, and I discounted Mulvaney for that. I basically have 3 levels of "legitimacy" as a liberty candidate. Mulvaney is on par with DeMint, Haley, Huelskamp, and McClintock - he got 0 points in that department because of questions in that area. However, he is a demonstrated liberty candidate due to his voting record against spending in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

As for B.J. Lawson, I put him in the highest "legitimacy" category, on par with Ron Paul. He's in a tough district and is running against an entrenched incumbent....but I agree that Lawson and Gary Clift should get a lot of support around here.

If we could get a poll of Lawson's district, that would factor into his ranking and possibly move him up - the only thing keeping him down where he is in the list is the "electability" aspect.

I have a theory with Mulvaney. I think he is intentionally avoiding talking about foreign policy in order to keep support with establishment politico's. I am convinced he is intentionally avoiding the issue; one interview I saw he completely side-stepped talking about specifics, and his campaign website is completely silent in this area. There would be no reason for this if he was a traditional Republican, as being outright pro-war would not hurt him in that area. On the other hand, I think the national party would frown at supporting an anti-war candidate.

Then again, there is the chance he could be bottling up his opinions to not push liberals into Spratt's camp with his rhetoric. But either one is plausible.

Imperial

08-08-2010, 01:55 AM

There is also an efficient way to appease those who are displeased with this placement. Why not make one list on electability and then a second list on issues? For example, I would count Delia Lopez as being a complete non-starter as far as electability is concerned, but on issues she would probably score much higher than a McClintock or Flake. Then it would be much easier to approach a list combining the two.

malkusm

08-08-2010, 02:16 AM

I should have the results of a REAL poll of my district on Monday. Not an 'internal' poll, or a poll from a softball pro-Rep pollster, but an actual commissioned poll from PPP.

Yep - and as I understand it, you'll likely be sharing the top line on the forums? If so I'll factor in those results. As it stands, if you get within 15 points or so you'll move up. :)

Tom McClintock is a Liberty Candidate?

I put him in the third group as far as "legitimacy" is concerned. He is still considered a "liberty" candidate by sites like www.libertyslate.com for example, and was supported by members here in 2008. Again, not perfect, he's more like a DeMint, etc. As such, he's down near the bottom.

alternative thread title: I WANT TO MAKE A THREAD FULL OF COMPLAINTS AND BICKERING

Alternative username: I LIKE TO MAKE UNPRODUCTIVE COMMENTS TO SEE IF I CAN STIR SHIT UP :rolleyes:

malkusm

08-08-2010, 02:22 AM

If you are looking for a true liberty candidate that is likely to win; Ed Thompson:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=256262

Excellent! I've only included candidates here who have already made it through their primary (which is why Flake is not listed, among others). When the primary draws closer, I'll be sure to keep him in mind for my primary thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=245428 :)

There is also an efficient way to appease those who are displeased with this placement. Why not make one list on electability and then a second list on issues? For example, I would count Delia Lopez as being a complete non-starter as far as electability is concerned, but on issues she would probably score much higher than a McClintock or Flake. Then it would be much easier to approach a list combining the two.

True, but that's why I went ahead and threw my "tiers" up in one of my posts on this thread. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=2830212&postcount=7

I think that it's important to have something comprehensive that factors in both criteria. Obviously, not everyone is going to agree with my list. I tried to make it as objective as possible, by utilizing a standard formula that is applied to all of the candidates rather than just picking the names I liked.

As a side note, if anyone disagrees with my "tiers," feel free to make your case. As I said, I made those distinctions based on the information I had available on their stances on foreign policy, monetary policy, and civil liberties.

Galileo Galilei

08-08-2010, 08:09 AM

Excellent! I've only included candidates here who have already made it through their primary (which is why Flake is not listed, among others). When the primary draws closer, I'll be sure to keep him in mind for my primary thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=245428 :)

Excellent. Ed has an uncontested primary in September. Another strong candidate from Wisconsin is Terri McCormick. She is a former state legislature running for congress. She is backed by members of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party and was a guest on Freed Watch with the Judge. She has a very winnable race.

CaseyJones

08-08-2010, 02:56 PM

bump

libertybrewcity

08-08-2010, 04:37 PM

malkusm

08-08-2010, 04:44 PM

Why is Demint up there? He voted for the wars and his race is not competitive at all. The last rasmussen poll had him up by about 40-some points. I think Lee should be moved up and Demint replaced by Angle.

Actually, I reviewed my spreadhseet and I made a mistake - I forgot to include that DeMint is an incumbent, which knocks him down. I'll adjust accordingly. Thanks! :)

malkusm

08-10-2010, 02:34 PM

Gunny's poll numbers moved him up to 6th :)

I have a ton of state candidates to add that I was unaware of....I just tapped into the Republican Liberty Caucus endorsements page, and there are a lot of candidates there.

One Last Battle!

08-10-2010, 03:03 PM

DeMint isn't our problem. Seriously, I can't think of a way for "Random guy off the street" Alvin Green to beat him. At any rate, his policies are kinda iffy. He has enough Neo-Con supporters and generic Republicans to help him out, it is a waste for us to use resources helping him.

Angle is superb on Fiscal issues, but her foreign policy and social issues aren't so hot. Regardless, she is DEFINITELY better than the alternative, so she belongs on this list (as I recall, we wanted Danny Tarkanian to win, though I don't remember why).

John Dennis is GREAT but...

>D-35

HOLY SHIT MAN

malkusm

08-10-2010, 04:12 PM

Galileo Galilei

08-10-2010, 04:13 PM

did Ron Paul endorse Angle?

libertybrewcity

08-10-2010, 04:57 PM

Added Angle (begrudgingly), since this is probably about the 4th request on that front.

Sharron Angle is much more of a liberty candidate than many of the incumbent congressmen you have up there. Her positions are closer to Ron Paul than say, Demint. You didn't have to put her at 2nd on the list if you don't think her candidacy is a high priority.

Galileo Galilei

08-10-2010, 05:02 PM

malkusm

08-10-2010, 05:24 PM

Sharron Angle is much more of a liberty candidate than many of the incumbent congressmen you have up there. Her positions are closer to Ron Paul than say, Demint. You didn't have to put her at 2nd on the list if you don't think her candidacy is a high priority.

The rankings are based on a formula so as to be free from my individual bias. I'm not really a big fan of Angle, and I put her in the third "tier" of credibility as a liberty candidate, but the fact is that she's in a tight race for a high-level office, which means that if we consider an Angle victory to be more or less a victory for us, then we need to prioritize accordingly.

Galileo Galilei

08-10-2010, 05:30 PM

libertybrewcity

08-10-2010, 05:34 PM

Basically, I'm trying to track the new federal candidates that have a shot to win and are endorsed by Ron Paul:

Senate

Rand Paul
Mike Lee
Ken Buck
Sharron Angle
Clint Didier

House

Justin Amash
Tim Huelskamp
Terri McCormick (likely to get Ron Paul's endorsement soon in Wisconsin)

I don't think Didier has much of chance. He was only at 10% in the latest poll, but we'll see soon. He could easily make something happen. I believe he was endorsed by Ron Paul, AND Sarah Palin.

libertybrewcity

08-10-2010, 05:35 PM

The rankings are based on a formula so as to be free from my individual bias. I'm not really a big fan of Angle, and I put her in the third "tier" of credibility as a liberty candidate, but the fact is that she's in a tight race for a high-level office, which means that if we consider an Angle victory to be more or less a victory for us, then we need to prioritize accordingly.

do you mind sharing your formula? im very interested.

poq

08-11-2010, 01:51 AM

malkusm

08-11-2010, 08:58 AM

Hi Great list! you definitely need Clint Didier up there too! He should be Top priority now, Washington state republican primary is next week Aug 17. He's been endorsed up and down by Ron Paul and almost every Liberty candidate we have. They even had a marathon radio broadcast money bomb in his honor with host Jack hunter the southern avenger. He needs all the help we can get him.
http://www.clintdidier.org/home.html

Hi poq,

This thread is only for candidates post-primary. I have another thread with upcoming primaries, in which Didier is listed: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=245428

Once Didier wins his primary next week, he will be added to the list immediately. :)

malkusm

08-11-2010, 10:01 AM

do you mind sharing your formula? im very interested.

I just retooled it a bit actually, to make it more "scientific."

Essentially, I assign points for the "competitiveness" of the race based on the probability density function of a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1.2. I use the PVI rating of the district (so, for example, a rating of D+6 means that the Dem would win by 12 points on average, since adding 6 to the D means subtracting 6 from the R), and poll numbers if available. The distribution of assigned points breaks down in this way:

33.13 1
32.79 2
32.22 3
31.45 4
30.48 5
29.34 6
28.04 7
26.62 8
25.09 9
23.49 10
21.84 11
20.16 12
18.49 13
16.83 14
15.22 15
13.67 16
12.19 17
10.79 18
9.49 19
8.29 20
7.19 21
6.19 22
5.3 23
4.5 24
3.8 25
3.18 26
2.64 27
2.19 28
1.79 29
1.46 30
1.18 31
0.95 32
0.76 33
0.6 34
0.47 35
0.37 36
0.29 37
0.22 38
0.17 39
0.13 40
0.1 41
0.07 42
0.05 43
0.04 44
0.03 45
0.02 46
0.02 47
0.01 48
0.01 49
0.01 50

The other criteria are:

-Importance of the office sought (15 points for US Senate, 10 for Governor, 5 for US House, 3 for State Senate, 2 for State House)

-"Legitimacy" as a liberty candidate (15 points for Ron Paul's level, 7.5 points for Rand Paul/Mike Lee's level, 0 points for Jim DeMint's level)

-Incumbent status (10 points if neither candidate is an incumbent, 0 points otherwise)

Galileo Galilei

08-11-2010, 10:18 AM

I don't think Didier has much of chance. He was only at 10% in the latest poll, but we'll see soon. He could easily make something happen. I believe he was endorsed by Ron Paul, AND Sarah Palin.

I think Didier is going to win.

Slutter McGee

08-11-2010, 02:09 PM

Aratus

08-11-2010, 02:21 PM

JOHN DENNIS IS POSITIONED TO GIVE Ms. PELOSI THE ELECTION EVE SHOCK OF HER POLITICAL LIFE
EVEN IF HE COMEs QUITE CLOSE BY POSSIBLY EVEN 3% TO 5% OF HER TOTAL VOTE COME NOVEMBER!

malkusm

08-11-2010, 02:22 PM

This is a great. An extremely helpful and productive thread. Although I would agree that I wouldn't call some of those people "liberty" candidates, the fact is most will be important allies on many issues in the coming years. The tier system is perfect. The extreme purists can look at their teir one candidates. And people like me get to factor in the Jim Demint types.

Thanks for the work.

Slutter McGee

You gave me another idea with this post....I'm going to add the tiers to the OP with the candidates ranked in order WITHIN their tier. That way, the "purists" can prioritize within Tier 1 while ignoring the candidates who they don't feel are worthy of their support....

Thanks for the feedback! :)

malkusm

08-11-2010, 08:24 PM

Added 5 candidates, all State Senate candidates from Indiana:

11) Brian Jacobs - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 25
http://votejacobs.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Tim Lanane (D), incumbent

13) Shawn Olson - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 4
http://www.olson4senate.com/
PVI: D+9
Opponent: Karen Tallian (D), incumbent

21) Jim Tomes - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 49
http://www.jimtomes.com/
PVI: D+18
Opponent: Patty Avery (D), non-incumbent

27) Greg Walker - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 41
http://votegregwalker.com/
PVI: R+10
Opponent: Chris Roller (D), non-incumbent

36) Mike Delph - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 29
http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=68073
PVI: R+26
Opponent: Robin Shackleford (D), non-incumbent

Promontorium

08-13-2010, 03:20 AM

I would posit one issue. If foreign policy weighs heavier than national policy, there is a problem. We elect for the United States first, not second or third. I don't care what the issue is. The job of congressman or senator is US first.

MatM

08-15-2010, 05:54 PM

Ryan Frazier is a House candidate in CO who just won his primary against a McCain endorsed opponent. He seems like an ally. He has been quoted as saying Republicans should "focus less on social issues and spend more time on fiscal conservatism, free markets, jobs and other core GOP values." Sounds awfully libertarian to me.

The Dude

08-15-2010, 05:58 PM

There is a grassroots movement to get State Rep. Sam Rohrer (R) elected in Pennsylvania as Gov in 2010. He lost in the primary but there is a very big write in campaign going on here. He is a very strong liberty candidate and strict constitutionalist.

james1906

08-15-2010, 07:07 PM

An Angle win would be big for an RP presidential run. Talking heads would be abuzz about how the tea party and outside candidates are making an impact. This can be the springboard for RP.

forsmant

08-15-2010, 07:59 PM

John Comstock is running for state legislature in Nebraska district 8.

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/group.php?gid=392361478754&ref=ts
http://www.taxcuttercomstock.com/

toowm

08-16-2010, 12:08 PM

malkusm-

I know you are setting this up for support post-primaries, but I am wondering if your data could be used for some contested primaries? As you may know, we have >1000 state rep candidates in NH for 400 positions; I am working for the "good" candidates in my district and my friends in other districts. I have New Hampshire Liberty Alliance and 2nd Amendment groups' endorsements, but have always wanted to know where my donations would do the most good, hence your spreadsheet.

Seeing that you are doing this in other states, do you have a preliminary sheet for New Hampshire? I expect the pro-liberty/anti-liberty vote will actually take place in the Republican primary for us this year on the September 14 primary.

toowm

08-16-2010, 01:19 PM

Two posts in a row. Thought of it reading another thread.

What about Dr. Art Robinson (Oregon-4) against DeFazio?

rancher89

08-16-2010, 06:57 PM

What about Jake Towne PA US Congress 15th district? Did he not make the cut chances wise or what?

http://towneforcongress.com/

Galileo Galilei

08-17-2010, 01:22 PM

Ed Thompson challenges Kathleen Vinehout in Wisconsin Senate District 31

Ed Thompson, the lone opposition candidate running in the 31st Senate District of Wisconsin.

Ed Thompson has some fight left in him from his younger days but instead of taking the fight to a physical opponent, he's taking the fight to Kathleen Vinehout. The former club boxer (retiring when he was 42) and Mayor of Tomah, Wisconsin has decided to take on one last bout, this time not in the boxing ring but the arena of State Politics. At stake is Wisconsin Senate District 31, a seat that Vinehout has held since 2006. A casual observer may think Ed has the added challenge of having to stand in the shadows of his big brother, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, but his fighting background makes him stand out in his own right.

According to Ed's campaign site, ED THOMPSON FOR STATE SENATE, raised in Elroy, Wisconsin, Ed's father ran a small grocery store while his mother taught in a one-room public school house. Ed helped his father in the family store in his spare time and also worked summers on a nearby farm. Successful in drama and sports in high school, he briefly attended the University of Wisconsin Madison before he enlisted in the US Navy during the Vietnam War. After an honorable discharge he married his then-wife, Kathy, and began a family.

His life has been just as remarkable in many respects as Tommy's. While working several different physical labor jobs and owning a couple of taverns to help feed his family, Ed competed in the Golden Gloves boxing circuit for a number years, quitting at the age of 42. Once out of boxing, he turned his sights on a new venture and restored an old, bankrupt supper club called the Tee-Pee on Main Street, Tomah . He renamed it Mr Ed's Tee Pee Supper Club and for the past 20 years has expanded this one-man risk-taking operation into a city landmark that employs over 30 people. He hosts the annual Tomah Free Thanksgiving Day Dinner; free meals to the less fortunate, in the club, and last year (2009) served over 1,200 people.

He was first elected mayor of Tomah in 2000, ousting a 2-term incumbent democrat, then decided not to run for relection as mayor in 2002, opting instead to head up the Libertarian ticket for Governor. Though he lost, he garnered more 3rd party votes than any candidate in the Governor's race in 60 years. His run was the subject of a 2005 documentary titled "A Remarkable Man", which also details other aspects of his life and his fight against the Doyle-run Attorney General's office in 1980s when it was trying to crack down on video poker in small taverns. So popular was Ed as Mayor of Tomah that the people in the city hoisted him back onto the City Council in 2005 as a write-in candidate. His success as a city council member translated to another run as Mayor in 2007, this time ousting a three-term incumbent.

Ed has again stepped down as Mayor in order to concentrate on his race against Kathleen Vinehout. He and former wife Kathy (Nelson) have had 4 children and 8 grandchildren. In the spotlight today, I interview Ed, and he reveals why he is running, and what sparked his desire to take on this next fight in his life:

Read the rest of the interview at CONSERVATIVEFEATURES.COM

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-la-crosse/ed-thompson-challenges-kathleen-vinehout-wisconsin-senate-district-31

MRoCkEd

08-17-2010, 09:09 PM

MARTHA DEAN!

YouTube - **Martha Dean - Standard-Bearer of the CT Tea Party Movement** Hartfor.wmv (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbulhYx7oHs&playnext=1&videos=bw8PtCzNvYg&feature=sub)

WhiteHaven

08-19-2010, 10:45 AM

Sounds like a great woman. Wish we had something like that here in Georgia.

libertybrewcity

08-25-2010, 01:24 AM

What about Jake Towne PA US Congress 15th district? Did he not make the cut chances wise or what?

http://towneforcongress.com/

Jake should 100% absolutely be added!!

Brett85

08-27-2010, 08:21 PM

Rand Paul should be on Tier 1. Just because his rhetoric is different from his father's doesn't mean he'll vote any differently.

Anti Federalist

08-27-2010, 09:49 PM

Malk, great work, thanks.

I'll look into Lepage and see what I can do for my neighbor state.

Sadly, nothing very exciting coming out of NH.

Tinnuhana

08-28-2010, 02:16 AM

http://rlcnh.org/
For all (most?) things NH.

libertybrewcity

08-28-2010, 02:26 AM

Jake Towne.

Epic

09-12-2010, 07:17 PM

LAWSON's race is the epically important one - it's likely to be about a 50-50 race in this wave year (and redistricting will help him after that).

Basically, if Lawson wins, it will teach republicans that in order to win in Democrat districts, they need to run Ron Paul Republicans to reach out to the progressive crowd.

LeifEiriksson

09-13-2010, 05:50 PM

How is Terri McCormick (WI-8) not on this list? Look at her issues and tell me she is not a friend of liberty.

http://terrimccormickforcongress.com/category/issues/

Michigan11

09-13-2010, 07:39 PM

50 days to go til November 2nd. Victory is at hand for our candidates on this forum.

Rand Paul, Justin Amash, Glen Bradley, and possibly maybe even Lawson. We need to get everyone ready for a final push on each of these candidates, so they can join Ron Paul in congress, which will give RP 2012 a hell of alot more backing going in...

We need to think V for Vendetta like the original moneybomb on November 5th.. remember

Rocco

09-17-2010, 08:56 AM

Logan Bell, an Independent in NY-24 should get consideration on this list.

wormyguy

09-26-2010, 08:11 PM

What about Joe DioGuardi in NY? He's hardly pure, but he supported Dr. Paul in 2008 and he's the most solidly anti-war Republican running for Senate this year. I think that puts him in Tier 2.

Rocco

09-27-2010, 04:54 PM

Agreed, with the exception that I believe DioGuardi should get Tier 1 status for A. Viability as a candidate, and competitiveness of the race (as opposed to the schiff/kokesh types who never really had a shot at winning and Amash/Lee types who's seats are basically wrapped up), B. His stances on the big issues (economic policy and foreign policy to be specific), C. The importance of the seat. This could be the 3rd liberty senator we put in congress in 2010 if we work hard enough!

Wiseburn

10-07-2010, 08:03 AM

This thread has left off Warren Redlich, the LP Candidate for Governor in New York and Ron Paul Supporter. With Cuomo on the left and Paladino running to the far right, The Center is wide open for Redlich. Here's his new ad
airiing in the Albany and Syracuse areas.

YouTube - Republican vs. Democrat (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7w15CYS4yo)

Redlich needs 50,000 votes to get ballot access for the LP in New York.

toowm

10-08-2010, 02:18 PM

Given the Maddow appearance, does Art Robinson (Oregon) break into the list?

winston_blade

10-12-2010, 02:45 PM

http://www.voteburr.com/ideas.html

Found this guy who is running for state senate in MA. Only reason I found him is because he is the brother of the brilliant comedian, Bill Burr. He looks pretty good though.

LibertyIn08

10-12-2010, 04:53 PM

Please add Robert Healey in Rhode Island for Lt. Gov.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=263888

No GOP Candidate as the party as endorsed Mr. Healey (Cool Moose Party).

JacobG18

10-12-2010, 05:05 PM

David Walter is running against Jo Bonner in Alabama 1st District

http://www.walterforcongress.com/

sent his campaign a email

"Hello David, I Live in the 1st district of Alabama were you are running for congress and I am trying to decide if I should vote for you, so i have a few question .

1. Would you support A full Audit of The Federal Reverse
2. would you vote to repeal the 16th,17th,23rd to the Constitution
3.Would you vote to repeal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act & Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010
4. Would vote for a full audit United States Bullion Depository
5. Would you vote to repeal the USA PATRIOT Act"

the Reply just said

"Yes! to all your questions"

so if he sticks to that answer he would be pretty good. so i am voting for him

malkusm

10-13-2010, 12:12 PM

All -

Sorry for my absence from this thread - I've been extremely over the past month or so. I had about 50 more state candidates that I wanted to add, but I may reduce this to federal candidates only just for the sake of having a "completed list." I can append my list of state candidates without ratings at the bottom.

I'll try to make these changes this weekend.

SociallyRenderedImage

10-14-2010, 12:41 AM

No candidate on this list will accomplish anything. At this point it is better to have Democrats stay in power as they will cause the needed decline much faster. These candidates and Neocons will mask the decline and extend it. Obama has done more for revolution than many know.

JacobG18

10-14-2010, 04:30 PM

libertybrewcity

10-17-2010, 04:27 PM

I know you are trying to stay away from state candidates, but I feel like Ed Thompson in Wisconsin should definitely be a priority.

Just threw him 15 bucks. Check him out!