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View Full Version : Important note about the recent poll.




LudwigVonMisoSoup
08-05-2010, 04:37 PM
I hope the Quinipac poll doesn't discourage people from phone banking or campaigning for Peter. I don't think the poll necessarily will represent how the voting will turn out on Tuesday for two reasons.

1). Peter's base is HIGHLY motivated. While some people may support Linda McMahon or Rob Simmons in passing, who knows if they'll actually get off their ass to take work off and vote on Tuesday. I assure you that the Schiff supporters will be up bright and early at the polls.

2). If any of you paid attention to Justin Amash's campaign, the final poll (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=255365)before the Republican primary (only two days prior) put Amash at 28%, Hardiman at 23%, Heacock at 18%, and 25% undecided. The final results: (http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=126220&catid=48) Amash 42%, Heacock 24%, and Hardiman 23%. These results signal a few things to me.

One, that even in today's age of polling, it is not always entirely accurate about what happens come election day. Two, that Amash grabbed a bunch of the undecided votes, probably because of the grassroots support and enthusiasm behind the campaign.

Schiff has this very same support, and we can snatch the remaining undecided voters. When everyone sees the signs, enthusiasm, and supporters at the booths, it just may swing the election his way. It ain't over yet.

K466
08-05-2010, 07:12 PM
+1776

qwerty
08-06-2010, 12:45 AM
I hope the Quinipac poll doesn't discourage people from phone banking or campaigning for Peter. I don't think the poll necessarily will represent how the voting will turn out on Tuesday for two reasons.

1). Peter's base is HIGHLY motivated. While some people may support Linda McMahon or Rob Simmons in passing, who knows if they'll actually get off their ass to take work off and vote on Tuesday. I assure you that the Schiff supporters will be up bright and early at the polls.

2). If any of you paid attention to Justin Amash's campaign, the final poll (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=255365)before the Republican primary (only two days prior) put Amash at 28%, Hardiman at 23%, Heacock at 18%, and 25% undecided. The final results: (http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=126220&catid=48) Amash 42%, Heacock 24%, and Hardiman 23%. These results signal a few things to me.

One, that even in today's age of polling, it is not always entirely accurate about what happens come election day. Two, that Amash grabbed a bunch of the undecided votes, probably because of the grassroots support and enthusiasm behind the campaign.

Schiff has this very same support, and we can snatch the remaining undecided voters. When everyone sees the signs, enthusiasm, and supporters at the booths, it just may swing the election his way. It ain't over yet.

This is GREAT!

Specter
08-06-2010, 01:20 AM
Notice that most of McMahons supports is from conservatives and most of simmons support is from liberal leaning or moderates. That would mean that simmons is taking votes from McMahon since Schiff is clearly on the conservative side. His new ad can expose her as a phony moderate. The conservatives will most likely go to Schiff and not Simmons since Simmons is seens as a moderate/liberal.

Just think a 20% shift from McMahon to Schiff would be: 34% McMahon, 35% Schiff. Like Schiff said, this is the first time commercials have been run against McMahon. People are going to be shocked by her record.

This is very good news for Schiff. See below.


..................................Mod/
.....................Con.......Lib
McMahon.......54%......36%
Simmons........23.........42
Schiff..............15.........12
DK/NA..............7............9

Also, I always take polls with a serious grain of salt. Look at the Scott Brown polls. They had him all losing except for Rassmussen. Rassmussens polls showed him winning 2 weeks before the election and the other polls showed him losing during that time period. Add that to the fact that a majority of people are still considering changing their votes. Peter can definitily win this race!

qwerty
08-06-2010, 01:27 AM
Notice that most of McMahons supports is from conservatives and most of simmons support is from liberal leaning or moderates. That would mean that simmons is taking votes from McMahon since Schiff is clearly on the conservative side. His new ad can expose her as a phony moderate. The conservatives will most likely go to Schiff and not Simmons since Simmons is seens as a moderate/liberal.

Just think a 20% shift from McMahon to Schiff would be: 34% McMahon, 35% Schiff. Like Schiff said, this is the first time commercials have been run against McMahon. People are going to be shocked by her record.

This is very good news for Schiff. See below.


..................................Mod/
.....................Con.......Lib
McMahon.......54%......36%
Simmons........23.........42
Schiff..............15.........12
DK/NA..............7............9

Also, I always take polls with a serious grain of salt. Look at the Scott Brown polls. They had him all losing except for Rassmussen. Rassmussens polls showed him winning 2 weeks before the election and the other polls showed him losing during that time period. Add that to the fact that a majority of people are still considering changing their votes. Peter can definitily win this race!

this is great info! :)