Ron Paul at 5% nationally in new USA Today/Gallup Poll!

[Zydeco]

First time I've seen Paul at 5% in a major national poll.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-10-15-poll.htm?loc=interstitialskip

(scroll down to Question #2)

Giuliani 32%
Thompson 18%
McCain 14%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 5%
Tancredo 2%
Brownback 2%
Hunter 1%


Moving up. I don't buy Huckabee at 6% for a minute, and think these polls severely undercount Paul's support, which I estimate at 10-12% right now among likely primary voters.

[Starks]

If I could find a sound for my jaw hitting the floor, I'd post it.

[Nash]

First time I've seen Paul at 5% in a major national poll.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-10-15-poll.htm?loc=interstitialskip

(scroll down to Question #2)

Giuliani 32%
Thompson 18%
McCain 14%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 5%
Tancredo 2%
Brownback 2%
Hunter 1%


Moving up. I don't buy Huckabee at 6% for a minute, and think these polls severely undercount Paul's support, which I estimate at 10-12% right now among likely primary voters.

It's really nice to see this primarily because most polls have "Paul, Tancredo, Brownback, Hunter..." all grouped together and this one finally singles him out.

That's more name recog all by itself.

[Cunningham]

And that's 5% of people who came out to vote for Bush in the 2004 primaries when he ran unopposed. I'd imagine with independents and first time voters he could be pushing into that Romney and McCain territory. Could be wishful thinking on my part though.

[Grandson of Liberty]

Keep getting the word out folks. . .I think the curve is gonna start a major upswing as the "they told two friends, and they told two friends. . . " exponential phenomenon begins to unfold and take off.

(And with percentage of error, this potentially puts Ron Paul ahead of Romney.)

Great job everyone! Keep it up!

[Perry]

Finally some good news. It's been a tough week.

[RonPaulFever]

This is outstanding! It's only a matter of time now.

[Ron Paul Fan]

WOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! Finally we hit the 5% nationally. But we still have a lot of work to do. We can still keep going up if we keep spreading the message. There's no reason to think that we can't reach double digits when a lot of people still don't know who Congressman Paul is. This is certainly reason for optimism and everyone should be proud, but we cannot let up! For Liberty!!!!!!!

[jmunjr]

2 weeks ago he polled at 2% and 2 weeks before that at 4%... Obviously a fair bit of standard deviation with these lower polling candidates....

[RP4ME]

SAWEEEEEETNESS! fINALLY YEAH !!!
Go team Ron PAUL!!

[austin356]

Can I get a BIG Jim Cramer style

BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH?

[richard1984]

If I could find a sound for my jaw hitting the floor, I'd post it.

My sentiments exactly. :D

[OptionsTrader]

This poll is closer to the relationships on Intrade than any other poll so far, so I find this one more credible.

Check out the relative change in poll numbers since the last USAToday poll:

Paul +150.00%
Tancredo +100.00%
Brownback +100.00%
Other +100.00%
Romney +11.11%
Giuliani 0.00%
Hunter 0.00%
F. Thompson -10.00%
McCain -12.50%
Huckabee -14.29%
None/ no opinion -18.18%

[saahmed]

One of the guys who wrote The Israel Lobby came to lecture at the university today and during the Q&A somebody got up and mentioned Ron Paul. To my surprise, the majority of the hall applauded. There were probably about 100 people there. Granted, these are probably people who are more into politics than the average person, but his name is getting out there.

[Starks]

Out of sheer curiosity. What makes Intrade reliable?

[OptionsTrader]

Out of sheer curiosity. What makes Intrade reliable?

The market and arbitrage opportunities.

[AMack]

This is awesome news. It really gives me hope to see stuff like this. Given that we draw at least 50% of our support from independents, democrats, and libertarians, I guestimate our support at a little more than double that number. So in my mind, we just jumped 2% or more.

I've gotta chalk my campus again so we can get more students interested for the Philly Rally...

[Perry]

This poll is closer to the relationships on Intrade than any other poll so far, so I find this one more credible.

Check out the relative change in poll numbers since the last USAToday poll:

Paul +150.00%
Tancredo +100.00%
Brownback +100.00%
Other +100.00%
Romney +11.11%
Giuliani 0.00%
Hunter 0.00%
F. Thompson -10.00%
McCain -12.50%
Huckabee -14.29%
None/ no opinion -18.18%


Great. Tancredo & Brownback both up 100%. all the reason they need to stay in the race.

[saahmed]

I was just looking at the details on the contributions. Paul is in second place in New Hampshire dollars! Romney got almost double Paul though.

[OptionsTrader]

Here's some spin:
"Ron Paul Polling 150% higher in Latest USA Today Gallup Poll Following an Impressive 114% Increase in Donations"

[richard1984]

Here's some spin:
"Ron Paul Polling 150% higher in Latest USA Today Gallup Poll Following an Impressive 114% Increase in Donations"

That "spin" may end up sounding even better to the "average" person's ears than the straight-forward numbers, though.

[noxagol]

That "spin" may end up sounding even better to the "average" person's ears than the straight-forward numbers, though.

That's because it is our favorable spin to make people like it better.

[freelance]

Even with standard deviation, it's a first. So, I guess Pajamas Media will increase their cost of entry to 10% LOL!

Seriously, it's about buzz at this point, and 5% is ON THE RADAR! It's a jump-off to a new plateau, a higher plateau--IF it creates enough buzz.

Keep the buzz going. Spread the buzz.

[kylejack]

This is great news. We'll know we're a serious contender when we hit 10%, IMHO.

[dude58677]

This is great news. We'll know we're a serious contender when we hit 10%, IMHO.

We're a serious contender because we hit $5,000,000

[kylejack]

We're a serious contender because we hit $5,000,000
Right, but now we need to use it to do some damage. The radio ads are a good start.

[Bradley in DC]

2 weeks ago he polled at 2% and 2 weeks before that at 4%... Obviously a fair bit of standard deviation with these lower polling candidates....

Different polls measure different things, and all of those numbers would probably be comfortably in the polls' statistical margin of error: that they are 95% confident that Dr. Paul's support is within a 3% point range of where they put him.

Please take all national polls with a grain of salt: we don't have national elections in this country. Whether to include, for example, Republican-leaning independents or not in a poll is difficult since some states would allow them to vote while others have closed primaries and would not. The national polls give us a good snapshot in time that mostly reflects name ID. But yes, this poll is good news. :)

[manny]

Of course must always be cautious but I think this is important. It won't need to creep up many more points before the "he can't win" arguments will disappear. So keep up the good work.

[SwooshOU]

Is there an article out yet besides all the tables and charts? I'd like to link it to some friends and family but that link isn't very user friendly.

[kylejack]

Is there an article out yet besides all the tables and charts? I'd like to link it to some friends and family but that link isn't very user friendly.

Yes, hold on.

[kylejack]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hWizd1oT6LlZuaACWKYt_T8MMLdAD8SA2DKG0

[kylejack]

Sorry, I thought you meant fund-raising...haven't seen an article for this poll yet.

[ThePieSwindler]

ugh why is huckabee always JUST ahead...the media really props him up as the "dark horse", its quite annoying. If he were such a serious contender, you'd think he could raise a bit more cash...

[kylejack]

ugh why is huckabee always JUST ahead...the media really props him up as the "dark horse", its quite annoying. If he were such a serious contender, you'd think he could raise a bit more cash...
Don't worry, our radio ads are about to kill him, and he has no money to fight back.

[syborius]

how is the ghoul at 32% I will never figure out. As someone else expressed. They only poll the 6.6% of the population that won Bush the primaries of 04. That's how these stats come about. I just give them about .02% credibility, how do you people like that for a stat. Find me a rally where the ghoul has 1000 people show up and maybe then my convincibility stat will go up by .04% for a whopping .06% otherwise these polls to me are just a deception. As long as we have 5 corporations in control here I doubt they will ever poll him higher then 10%. Fuck these polls

[uncloned21]

Don't worry, our radio ads are about to kill him, and he has no money to fight back.

...or grassroots

[kylejack]

how is the ghoul at 32% I will never figure out. As someone else expressed.
Name recognition. He is the only nearly universally recognized name. Thanks, 9/11!

[born2drv]

this is great news..... we have 1/2 as much national support as romney.... nearly 1/3 of thompson.... and this is based on THEIR polling methods... we can only go up ;)

[Green Mountain Boy]

What's really scary about that poll is that 23% of the people polled have never heard of Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. :confused:

[kylejack]

What's really scary about that poll is that 23% of the people polled have never heard of Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. :confused:

I've said it many times...the country is mostly asleep, politically. Name recognition is our number one foe for the rest of the primary campaign.

[Ridiculous]

What's really scary about that poll is that 23% of the people polled have never heard of Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. :confused:

Yeah, but those people probably won't come out and vote in the primaries.

[Nathan Hale]

Moving up. I don't buy Huckabee at 6% for a minute, and think these polls severely undercount Paul's support, which I estimate at 10-12% right now among likely primary voters.

You don't buy Huckabee at 6%? He's been polling consistently at 6-7% in many major polls recently.

[AFTFNJ]

Another place to get the word out are community boards @ stores like Quick Check where people put there Biz cards... put the Founding Father flyer / comparison sheet in legal size.

[stevedasbach]

how is the ghoul at 32% I will never figure out. As someone else expressed. They only poll the 6.6% of the population that won Bush the primaries of 04. That's how these stats come about. I just give them about .02% credibility, how do you people like that for a stat. Find me a rally where the ghoul has 1000 people show up and maybe then my convincibility stat will go up by .04% for a whopping .06% otherwise these polls to me are just a deception. As long as we have 5 corporations in control here I doubt they will ever poll him higher then 10%. Fuck these polls

Republicans think he's the only one that can beat Hillary. If/when they start to think that someone else has a better shot of beating her, his support will evaporate.

[Primbs]

While the polls may not count college students that may come out for Ron Paul, we should assume the polls are covering most voters and move our five percent of support to ten per cent.

The grassroots are working. The poll proves it.

[paulitics]

Look at why he's at 5%.
It's because they are including independents who lean republican

This is why there is this boost. If they just kept it strictly republican, he may still be at 2%. Usually they leave out independents. The question is how do they determine who is an indpendent that leans republican. Is this including libertarians as well?

Anyway, this survey method is alot more accurate than others I have seen.

[Santana28]

man o man... when the TV ads and radio spots start going national, there will be NO stopping us.

Just in the little time between the two marches in Chicago - 2 months - we went from having more hecklers booing at us and telling us Ron Paul is a nut, to having more people honking horns at us and cheering for us. We even had city workers cheering for us. Every time we turned a corner, people were honking for us (in that nice way :) I only encountered ONE obama supporter...lol... it was night and day difference. More positive media exposure and his visit in person are the only difference...

This stuff is about to start getting REALLY serious. I hope y'all are committed... its going to be a wild ride. As if it hasn't been already. We're in this to win!

[stevedasbach]

Look at why he's at 5%.
It's because they are including independents who lean republican

This is why there is this boost. If they just kept it strictly republican, he may still be at 2%. Usually they leave out independents. The question is how do they determine who is an indpendent that leans republican. Is this including libertarians as well?

Anyway, this survey method is alot more accurate than others I have seen.

Gallup typically includes independents, at least in some of their polls. I know they did in the one that showed him at 4% nationally.

FYI: Gallup also uses random digit dialing.

[Zydeco]

You don't buy Huckabee at 6%? He's been polling consistently at 6-7% in many major polls recently.

It's the media and pollsters propping him up as a "dark horse" to steal some of Ron Paul's thunder.

He's at 6% nationally and could only raise $1 mil in Q3? Does not compute.

[kenc9]

It's the media and pollsters propping him up as a "dark horse" to steal some of Ron Paul's thunder.

He's at 6% nationally and could only raise $1 mil in Q3? Does not compute.

I know this has been said many times but if you surveyed all college students for people under thirty land lines would be a very small number, most polls don't enter first time voters, only Republicans that voted in the last election.

The article I was reading said Ron Pauls real support number are between 3 to 4 times his poll numbers. So 5% could really be 15% to 20%.

What he deos in the early primaries is VERY important...Make or Break kind of deal.

[Silverback]

It's easy to make the arguement that the polls that show 1-2% dramatically underrepresent Pauls support, it's harder with this one because it includes independent leaners, but without knowing the mechanics of the poll there's no way of really knowing how accurate this poll is.

I think it's fair to say we're still in high single digits nationally, but there's explosive growth happening as the name recognition snowball continues and Pauls positions on issues become known.

Want to see something amazing? Go visit Democratic Underground and read the Paul/Nevada straw poll thread. That's got to be the most hostile, liberal audience on the net but they're politically aware and a recent poll said 25% of them would vote for Paul over Hillary, which is amazing considering the venue.

Huckabee is benefitting from Thompsons collapse and the Dobson effect, he doesn't have any legs, but I believe his poll numbers are accurate, the weak fundraising indicates that support is thin, they're not committed like we are.

[Nathan Hale]

It's the media and pollsters propping him up as a "dark horse" to steal some of Ron Paul's thunder.

The media is propping him up as a dark horse because he did so well in Iowa. They're not doing it to "steal...Ron Paul's thunder". Regardless, he's polling at 6% legitimately.


He's at 6% nationally and could only raise $1 mil in Q3? Does not compute.

Here's how it computes:

Political campaigns are comprised of two levels of people: activists and voters. Activists are people who donate to campaigns, work for campaigns, spread the word, etc. They are, literally, "active" parts of the campaign. Voters are people who have their mind made up to vote for the candidate. They typically don't contribute, or for that matter think very much about the race beyond their choice of who to support.

Ron Paul has a huge activist base, and as such has donation levels that are about half of what the top tier guys are getting. This is great! Paul's problem is that he doesn't have the voter base. Huckabee's problem is the opposite.

It computes.

[Zydeco]

How about 6% nationally, but only $45,000 in donations so far in October, and setting a goal of a big $200,000 by the end of October?

Come on, there's no way that computes. Huckabee is not at 6%.

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contribute.Home

[kylejack]

How about 6% nationally, but only $45,000 in donations so far in October, and setting a goal of a big $200,000 by the end of October?

Come on, there's no way that computes. Huckabee is not at 6%.

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contribute.Home

Loving how he stole our concept.

[ronpaulitician]

YES!!

Come on, 6%!

Seriously though, if the next Gallup poll comes soon (next week) and he gets 5% again, that solidifies him as a contender.

[Nathan Hale]

How about 6% nationally, but only $45,000 in donations so far in October, and setting a goal of a big $200,000 by the end of October?

Come on, there's no way that computes. Huckabee is not at 6%.

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contribute.Home

I just spelled it out. Huckabee's "win" in Iowa gave him a lot of media coverage that got him a lot of name recognition. That name recognition translated into "votes" in polls, because people saw him as the Clintonesque dark horse republican who was a real conservative alternative to the top tier. None of these people planned to donate to his campaign, they simply voted for him in polls. I've seen in a zillion times, as I stated earlier it all boils down to the two levels of "supporters" in a campaign.

[Nathan Hale]

Loving how he stole our concept.

Ron Paul's campaign didn't invent the idea of raising money online.

[kylejack]

Ron Paul's campaign was the first presidential campaign ever to feature live updates of donations. Which is what he's stolen.

[ValidusCustodiae]

We've Only Begun To Fight!

[Nathan Hale]

Ron Paul's campaign was the first presidential campaign ever to feature live updates of donations. Which is what he's stolen.

Any evidence to support your claim that Paul's was the first campaign to feature live updates? I've seen a lot of online donation trackers for campaigns.

Assuming that your claim is the case, what's the big deal again?

[Cali4RonPaul]

Loving how he stole our concept.

Didnt we take the inspiration from the Dean Campaign? Though you are right, Huck's site is looking more and more like Ron Pauls for sure.

[BillyDkid]

Explain to me how Huckabee is at 6%? He has no donors and yet, somehow, he has more supporters than RP? It's absurd.

[RevolutionSD]

First time I've seen Paul at 5% in a major national poll.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-10-15-poll.htm?loc=interstitialskip

(scroll down to Question #2)

Giuliani 32%
Thompson 18%
McCain 14%
Romney 10%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 5%
Tancredo 2%
Brownback 2%
Hunter 1%


Moving up. I don't buy Huckabee at 6% for a minute, and think these polls severely undercount Paul's support, which I estimate at 10-12% right now among likely primary voters.

Again, these polls are NOT accurate.
They call (on land lines) people who voted in the REPUBLICAN primaries in 2004. That eliminates MOST of Ron Paul's supporters right there. So his 5% is far underestimated. Sure, it's better than the 1% they were giving us credit for a couple months ago, but I'm telling you he's more like 17%. Huckabee? HA!

[kalami]

I. Oprah Winfrey
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2007 Oct 12-14 66 26 1 6
2007 Jan 5-7 74 17 * 8
2003 Nov 10-12 73 20 1 6
1992 Mar 26-29 78 14 2 6

Is there something going on that I haven't heard about?

[Liberty]

It's the media and pollsters propping him up as a "dark horse" to steal some of Ron Paul's thunder.

He's at 6% nationally and could only raise $1 mil in Q3? Does not compute.

I agree. MSM giving Huckabee too much coverage for a second place finish in the Iowa straw poll. How many straw polls has Ron Paul won?

[Nathan Hale]

Explain to me how Huckabee is at 6%? He has no donors and yet, somehow, he has more supporters than RP? It's absurd.

Check my posts in this thread. I explain it.

[Nathan Hale]

I agree. MSM giving Huckabee too much coverage for a second place finish in the Iowa straw poll. How many straw polls has Ron Paul won?

Ron Paul won a lot of straw polls, but they're not the same as Iowa. For starters, Iowa had 11,000+ voters. Usually it has twice that. With every campaign lobbying the poll, and the large number of voters present, it's closer to a genuine poll than most others. The problem with other straw polls is that they feature only a few hundred voters, and they're usually targeted by only a campaign or two, so it's easy for a dedicated campaign to stack the deck and win. In other words, Ames was a more reliable straw poll than the others - and that's why Huckabee is getting so much attention.