Poll: Ron Paul at 13%, in Third Place in New Hampshire

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/romney-continues-to-lead-in-nh.html


Ron Paul's numbers challenge the general assumptions about his support a little bit. With voters who identify themselves as Tea Partiers he's in fifth place with only 9%. With voters who don't identify themselves as such he's in second place with 15%. His son, Rand Paul, has been to some extent the poster child for the Tea Party on the national level but that's not equating to support from that quarter for his dad. Paul's numbers also suggest some appeal to the anti-Palin wing of the party. With GOP primary voters who consider a Palin endorsement to be a negative he's running almost even, getting 23% to Romney's 25%. But he polls at only 6% with people for whom Palin support is a plus.

This and a couple of other polls seem to suggest the 'Tea Party' doesn't like Ron Paul very much. :(

[itshappening]

Excellent numbers, third place is just 2 places away from first and Romney is only at 31%

[malkusm]

Duplicate thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=254808

[Galileo Galilei]

These numbers can change real fast if people start turning against the war, as I expect to happen next year.

[Anti Federalist]

Better than the last numbers I saw out of NH.

Much better.

RON PAUL 2012

[MRoCkEd]

Ron Paul 2012 - Poll Tracker

State polls:

13% in New Hampshire (PPP, July 23-25 2010, 7 choices - ): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/romney-continues-to-lead-in-nh.html
11% in Pennsylvania (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 5 choices - ): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
8% in Texas (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 6 choices - Perry + 5 regulars): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
10% in Texas (PPP, June 19-21 2010, 5 choices - no Perry): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/little-support-for-perry-pres-bid.html
7% in Iowa (PPP, May 31 2010, 7 choices - Demint & Thune + 5 regulars): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
7% in South Carolina (PPP, May 31 2010, 6 choices - Demint -): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
6% in Michigan (PPP, May 31 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/early-republican-numbers.html
6% in New Hampshire (Magellan, May 2010, 7 choices): http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Magellan-New-Hampshire-GOP-US-Senate-Primary-Survey-Release-0528101.pdf
10% in California (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/gingrich-looking-serious.html
9% in Colorado (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices): http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_518.pdf (PDF)
8% in North Carolina (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/looking-at-our-gop-polling.html
8% in Kentucky (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/paul-still-up-big.html
6% in Kentucky (PPP, May 2010, 5 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/paul-continues-to-lead-big.html
9% in Arizona (PPP, April 2010, 5 choices ): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/2012-gop-in-arizona.html
7% in New Hampshire (PPP, April 2010, 8 choices): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/romney-up-big-in-new-hampshire.html

National Polls:

PPP July 2010 national poll - 7% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/gingrich-leads.html
PPP June 2010 national poll - 6% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/monthly-gop-poll.html
PPP May 2010 national poll - 8% for Ron Paul - 5 way race - http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/jumble-for-gop.html
CNN April 2010 national poll: 8% for Ron Paul - 9 way race (w/Santorum, Pence, Barbour, Pawlenty, Gingrich): http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/04/13/rel7d.pdf (PDF)
PPP March 2010 national poll - 11% for Ron Paul - 4 way race (no Gingrich): http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/romney-leads-tight-republican-race.html
Gallup February 2010 poll: 2% for Ron Paul (open ended poll, so it's lower): http://www.gallup.com/poll/125777/Voters-Divided-Obama-Republican-Candidate-2012.aspx

Versus Obama:

PPP June 2010 poll: Obama 46 Paul 36 (Pauls win independents 46-28) http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/obama-up-in-2012-contests.html
Rasmussen March 2010 poll: Obama 42 Paul 41 (highlighted by Drudge) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41

[Anti Federalist]

^^^

Almost double from April both conducted by PPP

W00T

[rich34]

HOT DAMN FOLKS!!! This is the best news I've seen since Rand won the primary! Honestly, a win in New Hampshire could set the stage for Super Tuesday! Inroads are being made, 13 percent for the good Doctor is HUGE at this point in the game!

[Imaginos]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/romney-continues-to-lead-in-nh.html



This and a couple of other polls seem to suggest the 'Tea Party' doesn't like Ron Paul very much. :(
Anti-Ron Paul sector of Tea Party is largely a group of infiltrators (i.e. Neocons in Tea Party clothing).
They have nothing to do with reasonable foreign policy/cut military spending.
As far as I am concerned, they can all go fuck themselves along with Sarah Palin and Michelle Pukeman.

[Number19]

HOT DAMN FOLKS!!! This is the best news I've seen since Rand won the primary! Honestly, a win in New Hampshire could set the stage for Super Tuesday! Inroads are being made, 13 percent for the good Doctor is HUGE at this point in the game!Iowa is the key. A win may not be required, but it is absolutely essential for a strong showing. Fund raising and media attention would follow and then New Hampshire.

[Agorism]

Rand Paul winning Kentucky and winning CPAC again will be a huge boost.

[Kregisen]

Rand Paul winning Kentucky and winning CPAC again will be a huge boost.

And Freedom Watch moving up to Fox News and getting 1-2 million regular viewers wouldn't hurt either.

[Anti Federalist]

Iowa is the key. A win may not be required, but it is absolutely essential for a strong showing. Fund raising and media attention would follow and then New Hampshire.

That ^^^


Rand Paul winning Kentucky and winning CPAC again will be a huge boost.

That ^^^


And Freedom Watch moving up to Fox News and getting 1-2 million regular viewers wouldn't hurt either.

And that ^^^

I wish to hell Ron would announce.

[JK/SEA]

Hello, i'm Ron Paul, Champion of the Constitution, and i'm running for the Presidency in 2012.

I approve this message.

There...done.

[libertybrewcity]

Hello, i'm Ron Paul, Champion of the Constitution, and i'm running for the Presidency in 2012.

I approve this message.

There...done.

nice:)

[Anti Federalist]

Hello, i'm Ron Paul, Champion of the Constitution, and i'm running for the Presidency in 2012.

I approve this message.

There...done.

How hard could it possibly be?

;)

Maybe a contribution pool could be started?

How many duplicate threads will be started at RPF within how many minutes of Ron Paul announcing his 2012 candidacy

I say 10 within 5 minutes.

[KramerDSP]

With the numbers from this PPP Poll, I almost hope that the Democrats won't put up an Anti-War candidate that will challenge Obama in the primaries. The numbers are starting to show a trend that says Ron Paul is leading the race with the 18-45 year olds and the liberals/independents.

Romney's support can only peel away with the presence of Huckabee, Gingrich, and so forth. Paul rarely loses support, as those who support him have "seen the light" and cannot possibly vote for or support any other candidate who doesn't have a similar platform.

We're on an upward trend, from as low as 6% to polling in the double digits the last few weeks. If Rand wins, Ron may announce a few days later, and the first money bomb will be off the hook. I've said it before, but the biggest difference between 2007 and 2011 is that we were polling in the half a percentage point range back then and didn't start the massive fundraising until it was too late. This time, Paul's gonna have a $10 million dollar war chest before the first debates even begin, and he's practically a household name. It'll be tough, but I love what I'm seeing here.

[trey4sports]

i cant even imagine the amount of buzz that will be going on if he announces.....

[low preference guy]

How many duplicate threads will be started at RPF within how many minutes of Ron Paul announcing his 2012 candidacy

I say 10 within 5 minutes.

I say 50 within 5 minutes.

[freshjiva]

How hard could it possibly be?

;)

Maybe a contribution pool could be started?

How many duplicate threads will be started at RPF within how many minutes of Ron Paul announcing his 2012 candidacy

I say 10 within 5 minutes.

Love the enthusiasm, AF! I'm right there with you, bro.

I will do whatever my mind and body can do to help Ron Paul in 2012.

[JK/SEA]

We'll give em' fight that will be for the history books.

[Imperial]

I wish to hell Ron would announce.

Time to announce comes right after the midterms. I am thinking December?

[nate895]

I hope we don't have to deal with any "exploratory committee" BS. Just jump in.

[low preference guy]

I hope we don't have to deal with any "exploratory committee" BS. Just jump in.

an "exploratory committee" will be funny. it will give ron a lot of press before he formally announces.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Time to announce comes right after the midterms. I am thinking December?

January 2011 would be the equivalent to when Ron Paul announced the formation of an exploratory committee for his 2008 run.

But yes, you need to wait until after the midterms or else you end up looking like Mike Gravel.

[jmdrake]

With the numbers from this PPP Poll, I almost hope that the Democrats won't put up an Anti-War candidate that will challenge Obama in the primaries. The numbers are starting to show a trend that says Ron Paul is leading the race with the 18-45 year olds and the liberals/independents.


Obama will run uncontested. You might find someone like Cindy Sheehan running against him, but she'd have more traction running as a Green Party candidate than trying to fight the democratic establishment in their own party. Obama's approval rating is still at 84% and the dems think universal healthcare is a good thing and they haven't (by in large) woken up to the fact that he didn't deserve a Nobel peace prize. Plus he has a total lock on the democratic black vote.



Romney's support can only peel away with the presence of Huckabee, Gingrich, and so forth. Paul rarely loses support, as those who support him have "seen the light" and cannot possibly vote for or support any other candidate who doesn't have a similar platform.


We need to be prepared to go negative on Romney. Make well written commercials explaining what a disaster Romneycare has been in Mass. and how Obamacare is patterned after Romneycare. Also Gingrich is a target. Run that commercial with him and Nancy Pelosi on the couch talking about "global warming" into the ground. You forgot to mention Sarah Palin. She and Huckabee will be going after the same evangelical crowd. In fact here in TN She and Huckabee have endorsed different candidates in the race to unseat congressman Jim Cooper and those candidates are the two front runners. (They probably would have been the frontrunners without the endorsement, but it shows where the battle lines are).



We're on an upward trend, from as low as 6% to polling in the double digits the last few weeks. If Rand wins, Ron may announce a few days later, and the first money bomb will be off the hook. I've said it before, but the biggest difference between 2007 and 2011 is that we were polling in the half a percentage point range back then and didn't start the massive fundraising until it was too late. This time, Paul's gonna have a $10 million dollar war chest before the first debates even begin, and he's practically a household name. It'll be tough, but I love what I'm seeing here.

Yep.

[jmdrake]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/07/romney-continues-to-lead-in-nh.html



This and a couple of other polls seem to suggest the 'Tea Party' doesn't like Ron Paul very much. :(

Many "teocons" Joined just to go against everything Obama and are Bush devotees. But some are reachable.

See: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showpost.php?p=2809974&postcount=34

[Anti Federalist]

I'll bump this just to give it five stars

[RCA]

And Freedom Watch moving up to Fox News and getting 1-2 million regular viewers wouldn't hurt either.

Is this happening?

[Anti Federalist]

Is this happening?

I've heard some rumors but nothing confirmed, as far as I know.

[Galileo Galilei]

Iowa is the key. A win may not be required, but it is absolutely essential for a strong showing. Fund raising and media attention would follow and then New Hampshire.

I agree. Ron needs to win the Iowa Straw poll. If he does that, his poll numbers in NH will go up.

His main competition in Iowa will be Romney, Huckabee (if he runs), and maybe Pawlenty (from a neighboring state). Palin will not be a factor in Iowa. She may not even be running, and she might endorse Ron Paul. As for Newt, I'm doubt he has any organization in Iowa and I still doubt he us running.

[rich34]

Iowa is the key. A win may not be required, but it is absolutely essential for a strong showing. Fund raising and media attention would follow and then New Hampshire.

I agree somewhat with what you're saying as far as media goes, but it didn't help Huckabee or Romney any for their strong showings last time. New Hampshire on the other hand propelled McCain to big victories later on down the road. Obviously if we can win both it would be the best thing for us, but I honestly think Ron has a better shot at winning NH than he does Iowa mainly because of the social conservatives...

[Anti Federalist]

I agree somewhat with what you're saying as far as media goes, but it didn't help Huckabee or Romney any for their strong showings last time. New Hampshire on the other hand propelled McCain to big victories later on down the road. Obviously if we can win both it would be the best thing for us, but I honestly think Ron has a better shot at winning NH than he does Iowa mainly because of the social conservatives...

Don't count on it.

People placed unrealistic hopes on NH and got bitterly disappointed.

The NH GOP is as hidebound as any other GOP organization in the country, perhaps more so.

My home town and county returned some of the best numbers in the state for RP in 2008, but, overall, they were not that impressive at all.

It'll require a lot of work and I've been doing what I can locally, make it come out better this time.

But a clear, early announcement will help a great deal.

Some massive money bombs to be used right away for some good TV and radio ads, would go a long, long way this time around.

[nate895]

Don't count on it.

People placed unrealistic hopes on NH and got bitterly disappointed.

The NH GOP is as hidebound as any other GOP organization in the country, perhaps more so.

My home town and county returned some of the best numbers in the state for RP in 2008, but, overall, they were not that impressive at all.

It'll require a lot of work and I've been doing what I can locally, make it come out better this time.

But a clear, early announcement will help a great deal.

Some massive money bombs to be used right away for some good TV and radio ads, would go a long, long way this time around.

Media is not what wins Iowa and New Hampshire. You have to get out and meet the voters. Because of the tradition of "first-in-the-nation" for both states, the caucus-goers and primary-voters expect the candidates to actually seek them out and shake their hands. That isn't that hard in Iowa, despite the larger, less dense population because there are so few caucus goers, but in New Hampshire that means spending at least a few months there since you have to shake the hands of hundreds of thousands of voters.

[Kregisen]

Is this happening?

As AF said, nothing confirmed but it's only logical a show that has ratings through the roof will move up to the mother channel. It's already #1 on Fox Business and growing. (it could take a year though to move up....who knows?)

[Galileo Galilei]

Don't count on it.

People placed unrealistic hopes on NH and got bitterly disappointed.

The NH GOP is as hidebound as any other GOP organization in the country, perhaps more so.

My home town and county returned some of the best numbers in the state for RP in 2008, but, overall, they were not that impressive at all.

It'll require a lot of work and I've been doing what I can locally, make it come out better this time.

But a clear, early announcement will help a great deal.

Some massive money bombs to be used right away for some good TV and radio ads, would go a long, long way this time around.

2008 NH primary

Romney 32%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 8%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_presidential_primar ies#New_Hampshire_primary

PPP Poll

Romney 31% (-1%)
Paul 13% (+5%)
Huckabee 12% (+1%)

Remember, Romney is spending a lot of money in NH and Huckabee has a national TV show, yet Paul is making the most gains.

If Huckabee runs, he has to leave his TV show.

[Anti Federalist]

Media is not what wins Iowa and New Hampshire. You have to get out and meet the voters. Because of the tradition of "first-in-the-nation" for both states, the caucus-goers and primary-voters expect the candidates to actually seek them out and shake their hands. That isn't that hard in Iowa, despite the larger, less dense population because there are so few caucus goers, but in New Hampshire that means spending at least a few months there since you have to shake the hands of hundreds of thousands of voters.

Media has impact, otherwise I would not have heard the groans and negative feedback from people (not RP people, mind you, just people) over the "He's catching on I'm telling ya' ads.

But yeah, literally spending the summer and fall in 2011 in NH would be needed.

There are worse places you could spend that time.

[nate895]

Media has impact, otherwise I would not have heard the groans and negative feedback from people (not RP people, mind you, just people) over the "He's catching on I'm telling ya' ads.

But yeah, literally spending the summer and fall in 2011 in NH would be needed.

There are worse places you could spend that time.

No matter what move you make in a campaign, there always is the possibility of catastrophic failure. It doesn't matter what the possible positives are, it could lose you the election if you say or do the wrong thing. Political ads in NH and IA won't get many voters behind you, and they could cause national scrutiny if they are either horribly bad or attack ads.

[Galileo Galilei]

btw - here are the results of the poll, by tea party affiliation:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_728.pdf

WITH TEA PARTY

Romney 28%
Newt 22%
Palin 18%
Huckster 13%
Ron Paul 9%

NOT IN TEA PARTY (includes RINOs, neocons, and NWO types)

Romney 33%
Ron Paul 15%
Huckster 12%
Newt 10%
Palin 6%

So Ron Paul is doing worse with the tea party. Very strange indeed! Especially since Rand Paul is being widely describes as a tea party candidate.

[South Park Fan]

Can we create a 527 to attack Romney for his statist positions on health care, the economy, etc.?

[nate895]

Can we create a 527 to attack Romney for his statist positions on health care, the economy, etc.?

Why not?

[ItsTime]

Why not?

hmm I thought I posted in this tread I was planning on doing that. Did it get deleted or did I never hit "submit reply" button? lol

[Humanae Libertas]

btw - here are the results of the poll, by tea party affiliation:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_728.pdf

WITH TEA PARTY

Romney 28%
Newt 22%
Palin 18%
Huckster 13%
Ron Paul 9%

NOT IN TEA PARTY (includes RINOs, neocons, and NWO types)

Romney 33%
Ron Paul 15%
Huckster 12%
Newt 10%
Palin 6%

So Ron Paul is doing worse with the tea party. Very strange indeed! Especially since Rand Paul is being widely describes as a tea party candidate.

The Tea Party is now a hijacked movement, it has been since 2009 when FOX News took it over from RP supporters, and anti-income tax protesters.

[Kregisen]

The Tea Party is now a hijacked movement, it has been since 2009 when FOX News took it over from RP supporters, and anti-income tax protesters.

It pisses me off.....just imagine, if someone like Romney wins the nomination and ends up beating Obama (it would be close), the tea party will disappear.

It's not about small government, it's just about getting the democrats out.

:mad:

[FSP-Rebel]

The Tea Party is now a hijacked movement, it has been since 2009 when FOX News took it over from RP supporters, and anti-income tax protesters.
Ya it's official, I know longer identify myself as a TPer. It almost enrages me to see that a full half of them support Mitt or Newt.:rolleyes:

[ItsTime]

Ya it's official, I know longer identify myself as a TPer. It almost enrages me to see that a full half of them support Mitt or Newt.:rolleyes:

I think this is more of the issue. People are not claiming to be tea partiers because they do not want to be associated with them anymore.

[Anti Federalist]

It pisses me off.....just imagine, if someone like Romney wins the nomination and ends up beating Obama (it would be close), the tea party will disappear.

It's not about small government, it's just about getting the democrats out.

:mad:

That's all it is, or all it has become.

Just a doppleganger of the GOP.

[jmdrake]

It pisses me off.....just imagine, if someone like Romney wins the nomination and ends up beating Obama (it would be close), the tea party will disappear.

It's not about small government, it's just about getting the democrats out.

:mad:

Well if the current tea party disappears we just resurrect the old one. But this time we don't kick the 9/11 truthers that started it to the curb.

[Anti Federalist]

Well if the current tea party disappears we just resurrect the old one. But this time we don't kick the 9/11 truthers that started it to the curb.

+1

[amy31416]

Well if the current tea party disappears we just resurrect the old one. But this time we don't kick the 9/11 truthers that started it to the curb.

I, for one, feel like a total ass for all my criticisms. Well, except for the totally insane "truthers," which you and most other truthers who remain here aren't.

Mea culpa.

[jmdrake]

I, for one, feel like a total ass for all my criticisms. Well, except for the totally insane "truthers," which you and most other truthers who remain here aren't.

Mea culpa.

All is forgiven. :D I'm more than willing to work on the 98% that we all agree on. See: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=255535