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South Park Fan
07-27-2010, 11:31 AM
It seems like every time they release the crosstabs to a poll, they're numbers for the Democrat are higher than they were for 2008. One would think that if they're samples were truly random, and with a likely voter screen, it would at least fluctuate between too Democratic and too Republican. I'm going to start keeping a list of PPP's crosstabs and the actual 2008 results to see if I am just seeing things or if there's really something fishy going on:

California PPP: D 46, R 34, I 19 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_727.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 30, I 28 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAP00p1) Difference: D +4, R +4, I -9
New Hampshire PPP: D 35, R 29, I 36 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_7273.pdf) CNN: D 29, R 27, I 45 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NHP00p1) Difference: D +6, R +2, I -9
Nevada PPP: D 41, R 39, I 20 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_720.pdf) CNN: D 38, R 30, I 32 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NVP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +9, I -12
Florida PPP: D 40, R 40, I 20 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_720.pdf) CNN: D 37, R 34, I 29 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=FLP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +6, I -9
Maryland PPP: D 60, R 28, I 12 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MD_714.pdf)CNN: D 51, R 28, I 21 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MDP00p1) Difference: D +9, R +0, I -9
Kentucky PPP: D 52, R 37, I 11 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_706.pdf) CNN: D 47, R 38, I 15 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=KYP00p1) Difference: D +5, R -1, I -4
North Carolina PPP: D 46, R 36, I 18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_706.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 31, I 27 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1) Difference: D +4, R +5, I -9
Ohio PPP: D 44, R 38, I 18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_630.pdf) CNN: D 39, R 31, I 30 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1) Difference: D +5, R +7, I -12
Wisconsin PPP: D 33, R 32, I 34 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_629.pdf) CNN: D 39, R 33, I 29 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WIP00p1) Difference: D -6, R -1, I +5
Pennsylvania PPP: D 50, R 42, I 8 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_622.pdf) CNN: D 44, R 37, I 18 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=PAP00p1) Difference: D +6, R +5, I -10
Louisiana PPP: D 43, R 39, I 18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_LA_616.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 38, I 21 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=LAP00p1) Difference: D +1, R +1, I -3
Illinois PPP: D 42, R 29, I 29 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Illinois_615.pdf) CNN: D 47, R 28, I 26 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=ILP00p1) Difference: D -5, R +1, I +3
North Carolina PPP: D 47, R 34, I 19 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_608.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 31, I 27 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1) Difference: D +5, R +3, I -8
Iowa PPP: D 37, R 38, I 26 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_604.pdf) CNN: D 34, R 33, I 33 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=IAP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +5, I -7
South Carolina PPP: D 35, R 43, I 21 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_527.pdf) CNN: D 38, R 41, I 20 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=SCP00p1) Difference: D -3, R +2, I +1
California PPP: D 46, R 33, I 21 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CA_526.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 30, I 28 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAP00p1) Difference: D +4, R +3, I -7
Colorado PPP: D 37, R 33, I 31 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_519.pdf) CNN: D 30, R 31, I 39 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=COP00p1) Difference: D +7, R +2, I -8
North Carolina PPP: D 48, R 35, I 16 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_511.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 31, I 27 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1) Difference: D +6, R +4, I -11
Kentucky PPP: D 50, R 40, I 10 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_505.pdf) CNN: D 47, R 38, I 15 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=KYP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +2, I -5
Arizona PPP: D 35, R 43, I 21 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_428.pdf) CNN: D 32, R 39, I 30 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=AZP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +4, I -9
New Hampshire PPP: D 33, R 30, I 37 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_420.pdf) CNN: D 29, R 27, I 45 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NHP00p1) Difference: D +4, R +3, I -8
North Carolina PPP: D 47, R 35, I 17 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_414.pdf) CNN: D 42, R 31, I 27 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCP00p1) Difference: D +5, R +4, I -10
Illinois PPP: D 42, R 30, I 28 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IL_406.pdf) CNN: D 47, R 28, I 26 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=ILP00p1) Difference: D -5, R +2, I +2
Pennsylvania PPP: D 47, R 41, I 12 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_406.pdf) CNN: D 44, R 37, I 18 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=PAP00p1) Difference: D +3, R +4, I -6

t0rnado
07-27-2010, 12:40 PM
There definitely are discrepancies there and considering what happened to Research 2000 after a statistical analysis of their polls was done, you might be on to something here. Hopefully there are a few statisticians on this board.

South Park Fan
07-27-2010, 01:09 PM
It does seem suspicious how Independents are 9 points lower than the 2008 results in 5 out of the 11 polls. We're also supposed to believe that in 2010, where Democrats have a good chance of losing both houses of Congress and many governorships, Democratic turnout is higher than in 2008 in every state polled except Illinois, Wisconsin, and South Carolina.

libertybrewcity
07-27-2010, 02:39 PM
PPP is a dem organization just like Rasmussen is a republican org. In 2008 I would have leaned more towards ppp being accurate but this is going to be a Republican year in most states, maybe except for California so I will lean more towards Rasmussen polling because they poll more republicans. Usually, halfway between the two polls is a good guess.