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Elwar
07-27-2010, 09:32 AM
It seems that polls are a self fulfilling prophecy during elections. Someone low in polls doesn't get the coverage of those who are high in polls and as such, they don't rise in the polls.

So, how are these polls set up? Are they all automated with robocalling, or are there people that sit there and call people and write down their answers? And if they are people writing the answers, who's to say that those people wouldn't skew the results?

I know if I had to get 200 answers for a poll and this required me going through a call over and over with many different people, I might fill in a few fake answers if I get a voice mail or nobody's home, maybe spend a bit more time at the water cooler than sitting at a boring phone.

And who do the pollsters call? Who uses their home phone anymore? A whole generation of young people mainly use their cell phones. So the polls are mainly polling old people who are sitting at home all day. How is that representative?

Has anyone here ever worked for one of these polling places that might have insight on how these things work?

libertybrewcity
07-27-2010, 05:14 PM
It seems that polls are a self fulfilling prophecy during elections. Someone low in polls doesn't get the coverage of those who are high in polls and as such, they don't rise in the polls.

So, how are these polls set up? Are they all automated with robocalling, or are there people that sit there and call people and write down their answers? And if they are people writing the answers, who's to say that those people wouldn't skew the results?

I know if I had to get 200 answers for a poll and this required me going through a call over and over with many different people, I might fill in a few fake answers if I get a voice mail or nobody's home, maybe spend a bit more time at the water cooler than sitting at a boring phone.

And who do the pollsters call? Who uses their home phone anymore? A whole generation of young people mainly use their cell phones. So the polls are mainly polling old people who are sitting at home all day. How is that representative?

Has anyone here ever worked for one of these polling places that might have insight on how these things work?

polling companies are mysterious entity.

malkusm
07-27-2010, 05:16 PM
I think that we should have our own polling company....first of all, this would ensure that the races we cared about were polled; secondly, it would give us a completely verifiable look at the race as it stands. A polling company of our own would allow us to prioritize races to a much greater extent than we can now...

Jordan
07-29-2010, 07:14 AM
I think that we should have our own polling company....first of all, this would ensure that the races we cared about were polled; secondly, it would give us a completely verifiable look at the race as it stands. A polling company of our own would allow us to prioritize races to a much greater extent than we can now...

I couldn't agree more.

With as much as we're spending per election cycle, a small percentage dedicated to polling could help us greatly reduce waste, and better target the issues that matter in different districts.

So, Mr. Statistician, are you in? :p

randolphfuller
07-29-2010, 02:10 PM
The late Ann Richards senigrated the polls in 2004 showing Bush with a substantial lead over Kerry with this"they aren't reaching people with cell phones" argument. It sounded plausible, but it seems the people with cell phones don't vote any differently than anyone else.

t0rnado
07-29-2010, 02:28 PM
I think that we should have our own polling company....first of all, this would ensure that the races we cared about were polled; secondly, it would give us a completely verifiable look at the race as it stands. A polling company of our own would allow us to prioritize races to a much greater extent than we can now...

Couldn't we simply just get a list of registered Republicans, call a few hundreds, and ask them who they're going to vote for?

malkusm
07-29-2010, 03:10 PM
Couldn't we simply just get a list of registered Republicans, call a few hundreds, and ask them who they're going to vote for?

Yes, however - there are a lot of biases that need to be avoided, both in the sampling as well as the line of questioning. (For the sampling, consider: if someone called 300 registered Republicans before the Kentucky primary, and they were mostly from eastern Kentucky, it's likely that Grayson would "lead" the poll.)

If we had someone who worked on the inside for a polling firm, and had experience with their methodology, that would be fantastic....

Join The Paul Side
08-03-2010, 02:36 AM
Yes, however - there are a lot of biases that need to be avoided, both in the sampling as well as the line of questioning. (For the sampling, consider: if someone called 300 registered Republicans before the Kentucky primary, and they were mostly from eastern Kentucky, it's likely that Grayson would "lead" the poll.)

If we had someone who worked on the inside for a polling firm, and had experience with their methodology, that would be fantastic....

I am fighting a pro se litigation case. Have been for 3 yeears now. I have won a few legal battles against a giant corporation and their overpaid lawfirms by case history alone.

Now, this mega-giant corporation got angry and brought out the cheaters to steal this case from me. An appeals court just ruled against me in an exact case that they previously reversed and remanded in favor of the Applellant that filed before me.

Sometimes, you are in over your head. Money truly talks, and the rule of law is honestly for sale.

But I will continue to fight the good fight. Even though histortic paper (including the law as written) says I should win, the only paper that matters to these crabs is this: $$$$$$$$$$

It's not just a Ron Paul Presidency that I fancy, but also a system that is truly by the people, for the people, and of the people ..... instead of by the rich, for the rich, and who wants to be bought so they can be rich.

This nation is corrupt from top to bottom in every state, in every trial court/appellete court, every city, town, suburb, county, police station and school.

It will take a complete white washing of the whole system to make us truly free by Constitutional standards.

But even though my confidence is shaken, if you guys fight the good fight... so will I continue to fight the good fight with ya.

Sorry for the off topic rant. I just thought if there was any place to vent, this would be it.

Peace to all my RPF brothers and sisters (Even the ones I have had past differences with). :)