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Galileo Galilei
07-10-2010, 02:30 PM
Clint Didier for Senate - strong candidate

I think this guy can win.

Libertarian Ron Paul endorses Didier
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/214087.asp?from=blog_last3


"Clint Didier is a dynamic leader who understands our Constitution and will fight against out-of-control government to restore our Liberty," Paul, a Republican presidential candidate in 2008, said in a statement.

The longtime Texas lawmaker went on to say: "Clint has the courage to stand up against the bailouts and government takeovers being forced down our throats by Washington insiders."

Didier, an Eltopia, Wash., alfalfa farmer, is a product of the Tea Party movement. He was cheered at a Tea Party rally in Bellingham on Thursday. Claiming the United Nations seeks to "take our guns," he said that the United States should get out of the U.N. and that the U.N. should get out of the U.S.

for some reason, the democrats are also pushing Didier, probably because they feel he is a weaker general election candidate:


Whenever Republican Didier has given a well-received speech, or secured a high-profile endorsement, the Dems' Senate campaign committee has blanketed the press with e-mails.

I'll take it, I think Dider can win it all, he is also endorsed by Sarah Palin:

I also found this:

http://www.washingtonstatepolls.com/SENATE-SURVEY-01.htm


If the Primary election was held today, which Candidate would you select for U.S. Senate?

Patty Murray (D) 33.4%
Charles Allen (D) 0.4%
Bob Burr (D) 0.5%
GoodSpaceGuy (D) 0.1%
Mike The Mover (D) 0.0%
Paul Akers (R) 6.5%
William E. Chovil (R) 0.5%
Clint Didier (R) 16.9%
Norma Gruber (R) 0.2%
Mike Latimer (R) 0.2%
Dino Rossi (R) 15.9%
Will Baker (I) 0.3%
Schalk Leonard (I) 0.7%
James Mercer (I) 0.5%
Mohammad Said (I) 0.2%
Undecided 23.7%

Margin of Error (MoE) 1.04%

According to this poll, Clint Didier is slightly likely to get 2nd place and hence, make the final ballot where he would have a shot at winning. Ron Paul's endorsement should give him a bump of money and media.

Didier is 6'5", he was a Tight End in the NFL for 8 years. He played for 6 years with the Washington Redskins, so he should have some name recognition. In his rookie season, the 1982, season, the Skins won the Super Bowl. In 1987, they won the Super Bowl again, with Didier scoring a touchdown. They made the playoffs every season he was there, except one, and they still won 10 games that season. He also played in the 1983 Super Bowl and caught 5 passes in the game. The Redskins often used a two Tight End set in those days.

So in 6 seasons in Washington, he played in three Super Bowls. He won two Super Bowls, and had a notable game in two Super Bowls, one in a win and one in a loss. His team made the playoffs 5 times, and won 10 games or more 5 times (in the other season, a strike year, the Skins were 8-1 and won the Superbowl). His teams won 11 playoff games in those years, losing only 3 playoff games. In the regular season, the Skins won 66 games and lost ony 22 over a 6 year stretch.

The offensive line on those days for Washington was known as "The Hogs", with Didier being the Tight End hog.

Then, Didier played two more season with the Green Bay Packers. In his final season, 1989, the Packers surprised everyone and won 10 games, it was the beginning of their revival.

He was good enough and played long enough that I remember him from the NFL.

Didier also played high school football in Washington where he was a star, then his college football nearby at Portland State (Oregon) where he was also a star. He is a member of the Portland State Hall-of-Fame and the Central Washington Hall-of-Fame.

Didier is also a high school football coach in Washington. His team won state twice and twice more played in the championship game.

This guy is also endorsed by Sarah Palin. He quotes Thomas Jefferson and goes to tea party rallies. He obviously has a brain and must be pretty well known in Washington.

I think this guy can win the whole thing and be in the Senate next year.

South Park Fan
07-10-2010, 03:04 PM
That poll is more reassuring than the SurveyUSA poll!

Galileo Galilei
07-10-2010, 03:12 PM
That poll is more reassuring than the SurveyUSA poll!

What did that poll say?

South Park Fan
07-10-2010, 03:40 PM
What did that poll say?

Murray 37%, Rossi 33%, Didier 5%, et al
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3abeab43-380a-42cd-9f2a-6f35e089a6e2

EDIT: If one takes the margin of error into account from the generic Washington state poll, the best-case scenario for Rossi within 95% certainty is Rossi 17%, Didier 16%. However, if one did the same thing for the SurveyUSA poll, the best-case scenario for Didier within 95% certainty is Rossi 28%, Didier 10%. This seems awfully suspicious that there would be such a discrepancy; there seems to be over a 99% chance that these polls either used different sampling techniques or at least one of them was not random. We will have to wait until primary day to find out, I suppose.

EDIT #2: Sorry to be a pessimist, but the crosstabs on the generic poll seem to confirm my suspicions that their findings are highly unrealistic. Not a single Democrat or Republican they surveyed crossed party lines to vote for any candidate besides Didier, but somehow 121 Democratic respondents are willing to vote for Didier? Only 3% of independents in the survey were willing to vote for Murray? I initially suspected that this poll's differences from SurveyUSA might have been caused by their sample being 45% Republican, 48% Democrat, and 7% Indepedent, when in 2008 Washington voters were 26% Republican, 36% Democrat, and 39% Independent. However, when both SurveyUSA's poll (which had a much more accurate partisan breakdown) and this poll were compared with their partisan breakdown's adjusted to 2008, Survey USA's poll remained essentially the same, while Didier's vote share surged to 17% in the generic poll (Murray's fell to 26% and Rossi's fell to 13%). Normally, one would expect the gap between the two polls to fall if the partisan split is consistant, but the gap widened here.

Galileo Galilei
07-10-2010, 08:11 PM
Murray 37%, Rossi 33%, Didier 5%, et al
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3abeab43-380a-42cd-9f2a-6f35e089a6e2

EDIT: If one takes the margin of error into account from the generic Washington state poll, the best-case scenario for Rossi within 95% certainty is Rossi 17%, Didier 16%. However, if one did the same thing for the SurveyUSA poll, the best-case scenario for Didier within 95% certainty is Rossi 28%, Didier 10%. This seems awfully suspicious that there would be such a discrepancy; there seems to be over a 99% chance that these polls either used different sampling techniques or at least one of them was not random. We will have to wait until primary day to find out, I suppose.

EDIT #2: Sorry to be a pessimist, but the crosstabs on the generic poll seem to confirm my suspicions that their findings are highly unrealistic. Not a single Democrat or Republican they surveyed crossed party lines to vote for any candidate besides Didier, but somehow 121 Democratic respondents are willing to vote for Didier? Only 3% of independents in the survey were willing to vote for Murray? I initially suspected that this poll's differences from SurveyUSA might have been caused by their sample being 45% Republican, 48% Democrat, and 7% Indepedent, when in 2008 Washington voters were 26% Republican, 36% Democrat, and 39% Independent. However, when both SurveyUSA's poll (which had a much more accurate partisan breakdown) and this poll were compared with their partisan breakdown's adjusted to 2008, Survey USA's poll remained essentially the same, while Didier's vote share surged to 17% in the generic poll (Murray's fell to 26% and Rossi's fell to 13%). Normally, one would expect the gap between the two polls to fall if the partisan split is consistant, but the gap widened here.

I'm not sure what's going on with these polls but I appreciate your analysis, it looks pretty solid.

But here is my take. Didier is a former football hero who played in three Super Bowls, has stayed somewhat in the limelight via being a champion high school coach, and two elections to local athletic hall-of-fames. He has pretty good name recognition in Washington. He is endorsed by the Tea Party, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul. He is 6' 5" and is a smart guy and a good speaker, and has a real occupation, he is an alfalfa farmer.

Voters change their minds fast in primaries. I doubt he is at 5% in the polls anymore. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a victory (2nd place in primary). This Rossi guy seems like the same type of republican that everybody hated 2 years ago, and Washington leans liberal. I see that a plurality in the poll says the war in Afghanistan isn't worth it, and Didier is a non-interventionist.

specsaregood
07-10-2010, 08:33 PM
EDIT #2: Sorry to be a pessimist, but the crosstabs on the generic poll seem to confirm my suspicions that their findings are highly unrealistic.

Perhaps this explains it:


Survey participants are selected from our database of Washington State residents. Those selected for the survey are given a website link and survey code where they can answer the survey questions online.
http://www.washingtonstatepolls.com/info.htm

Like all online polls, they are always greatly skewed towards candidates with an energized supporter base.

Galileo Galilei
07-10-2010, 09:18 PM
Perhaps this explains it:

http://www.washingtonstatepolls.com/info.htm

Like all online polls, they are always greatly skewed towards candidates with an energized supporter base.

I'd don't think this is a normal online poll.

South Park Fan
07-10-2010, 09:36 PM
Perhaps this explains it:

http://www.washingtonstatepolls.com/info.htm

Like all online polls, they are always greatly skewed towards candidates with an energized supporter base.

Oh, well that probably explains it. If it's an online poll, it seems pretty disingenuous to calculate the margin of error the traditional way. Hopefully it's a low-turnout primary!

Galileo Galilei
07-10-2010, 09:45 PM
The way I see it, I think a lot of Paul Akers support will move to Didier, when voters decide Akers is not a factor.

South Park Fan
07-10-2010, 11:01 PM
The way I see it, I think a lot of Paul Akers support will move to Didier, when voters decide Akers is not a factor.

Let's hope so. :)
Also, let's try to get a PPP poll on this race. https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2799451770086337664&postID=3074650198367598642

MRoCkEd
07-18-2010, 01:41 PM
Finally got a chance to look at Didier's positions.
Wow! He's great!

Sarah Palin's endorsements are all over the place, but this one is right on.

teamrican1
07-18-2010, 01:59 PM
Finally got a chance to look at Didier's positions.
Wow! He's great!

Sarah Palin's endorsements are all over the place, but this one is right on.

Yeah, he would be a HUGE win for the liberty movement. His foreign policy statement is great. Just based on his issues page, he's a better liberty candidate than Rand. We really need to rally around this guy and give him some support. Poll that just came out shows he'd be the favorite against the Democrat. He just needs to knock Dino Rossi (who seems like he has been running for that seat half my adult life) out in the GOP primary.

surf
07-18-2010, 03:30 PM
The way I see it, I think a lot of Paul Akers support will move to Didier, when voters decide Akers is not a factor.

Akers supports the war on teruh. many Rs are getting bored with Rossi. Didier is a bright spot in WA state and we will need "independents" to support him to get him through to the general where i think he'll have a good shot at beating the "mom in tennis shoes."

South Park Fan
07-18-2010, 03:39 PM
From what I've heard, there are almost no signs for Rossi; most of the yard signs are for Didier, and a few are for Akers.

anaconda
07-18-2010, 03:46 PM
I must be missing something, here....the OP says Didier would get "second" place if the election was held today but his numbers are the highest for Republicans. I believe the WA primaries are next month (August). The 33% lady is a Democrat, right?

South Park Fan
07-18-2010, 03:54 PM
I must be missing something, here....the OP says Didier would get "second" place if the election was held today but his numbers are the highest for Republicans. I believe the WA primaries are next month (August). The 33% lady is a Democrat, right?

Correct. Washington has a top-two primary system. Based on the poll, Didier's chances are best if enthusiastic voters make up the largest percentage of voters, so hopefully overall turnout is low.

anaconda
07-18-2010, 06:22 PM
Correct. Washington has a top-two primary system. Based on the poll, Didier's chances are best if enthusiastic voters make up the largest percentage of voters, so hopefully overall turnout is low.


Thanks for the response. So, are you saying that there will be two Democrats and two Republicans on the November ballot for the senate seat?

low preference guy
07-18-2010, 06:26 PM
Thanks for the response. So, are you saying that there will be two Democrats and two Republicans on the November ballot for the senate seat?

No. The top two in primaries are on the ballot in November. So if two democrats take first and second in total number of votes, those two Democrats and no one else will appear on the ballot in November. But that's not likely to happen.

anaconda
07-18-2010, 07:57 PM
No. The top two in primaries are on the ballot in November. So if two democrats take first and second in total number of votes, those two Democrats and no one else will appear on the ballot in November. But that's not likely to happen.

Fascinating. I did not know that. I thought previously that official parties get to be represented on the ballot in general elections.

Galileo Galilei
07-18-2010, 08:01 PM
Didier is peaking at the right time.

silus
07-18-2010, 08:05 PM
Does he know much about the economy beyond "smaller government"?

I see his ads all over Washington.

scandinaviany3
07-19-2010, 12:18 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/washington/election_2010_washington_senate

Didier 48 to murray 45

low preference guy
07-19-2010, 12:22 AM
Does he know much about the economy beyond "smaller government"?

I see his ads all over Washington.

I don't have any quotes to back him on the economy, but on foreign policy, he is fantastic. He agrees with Ron Paul that letters of marque and reprisal should have been used (http://lewwaters.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/clint-didier-shoots-himself-in-the-foot/).


Didier says in this regard, “So we put a bounty on their head through letters of marque and reprisal” adding it should be “One Billion Dollars.”

How disconnected from reality can he and Ron Paul be?

doctor jones
07-19-2010, 01:14 AM
I don't have any quotes to back him on the economy, but on foreign policy, he is fantastic. He agrees with Ron Paul that letters of marque and reprisal should have been used (http://lewwaters.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/clint-didier-shoots-himself-in-the-foot/).

Wow that blog is so disturbing. Neocons need to pack their bags and go home.

Ricky201
07-19-2010, 02:01 AM
I'm in full support of Didier after watching his statement on foreign policy. I was hawkish about him before, but I want that Murray gone SO bad...and for the most part his message is great.