View Full Version : Beitler (L-NC) @ 10%, tied with Major Party Candidates among Independents

South Park Fan
07-06-2010, 10:49 AM

Burr's at 38% to 33% for Marshall and a surprising 10% for Libertarian Michael Beitler. Beitler's running basically even with Burr and Marshall among independents, getting 26% to 29% for the Democratic challenger and 27% for the Republican incumbent. Contrary to conventional wisdom about where Libertarian candidates get their support from Beitler is actually pulling 7% of Democrats to just 4% of Republicans. Beitler may be doing well with conservative Democrats who don't want to give Barack Obama another vote in the Senate but who don't much care for Burr either.

07-06-2010, 12:09 PM
Would not be shock if a LP candidate get elected this year to congress. Dems offer growing government, shrinking liberty and war. Repbulicans complain about it but offer nothing different. This could be the year.

Tea Party (http://mysite.verizon.net/nathanielyao/index.html)

07-06-2010, 02:01 PM
He's doing well for several reasons.

Burr has been ineffective and mushy, no one is thrilled with him, except for the "blinders on" rabid "gotta vote republican or the earth will implode" folks.

Marshall is a dem and dems are going to lose via the backlash, plus she's not someone the dem's can rally behind--in other words "she ain't no bama."

Dr. Beitler is articulate and has struck a chord with all who listen to him.

I have to say that Mike Munger did a lot of the state wide ground work for all Libertarians in the state last year. Because Mr. Munger reached the required 2% of the statewide vote in the gubenatorial race in 2008, the Libertarians in NC did not have to get signitures, spend money and time to battle to get on the ballot.

This is going to be a pivotal year in NC politics...mark my words! :D

07-06-2010, 05:20 PM
Beitler had SurveyUSA give him 6% a couple of weeks ago, so he has to be thankful for this poll from PPP showing him a boost. PPP and SUSA are generally speaking the two most accurate polling firms out there (in contrast to R2K and Rasmussen).

Jensen I think had one dynamic wrong. He claimed that Beitler's significant Democratic support came from Blue Dogs or conservadems, but I think that the large Democrat support is actually disenchanted liberals. 11% of liberals supported him in the poll and he beat Burr (the Republican) in the African-American vote. This theory gains more credibility when you consider Munger ran to the left of the Democrat in his gubernatorial race in 2008, emphasizing many commonly considered "progressive" issues.

This doesn't mean that Munger abandoned conservatives or anything; )the SUSA poll showed that Beitler also had some tea party support too) instead, it means Munger took the LP into a constituency that is often abandoned.

Nathan Hale
07-08-2010, 06:52 AM
Hopefully the national LP is funneling money into this campaign. But if I know them (and I know them well), they're probably hording money for 2012 so they can blow it all on another top-down "the presidential race is all that matters" strategy.