If Ron Paul runs in 2012, will he win?

[MyLibertyStuff]

I honestly think he will for a few reasons.

It is obvious to me that our beliefs are becoming mainstream. I see for the first time people saying they are Libertarians just to say they are Libertarians. The vast majority of Libertarians I have previously met were decently educated, and at the very least had a good understanding of the concept. Recently, I have been meeting people that say they are Libertarian, and then have no idea what it is. Whatever the reason be, it is becoming the "in" thing, or at least more of one.

On top of that you have the real grassroots. Us, if you will. Last election, we constantly surprised even ourselves, and made a real dent in an election where Ron Paul was still considered "whack-o" by almost all. Next election, I see us constantly surprising even ourselves in a world where Ron Paul is accepted as a functional person by the voters, if he isnt the new fad.

What do you guys think?

EDIT - The polls are also worth mentioning. Not only results regarding Ron Paul himself, but also polls concerning ideology. It seems to me the shift is happening before our eyes.

[sailingaway]

What I think is that I'm sure not going to entertain any other possibility.

[jmdrake]

What I think is that I'm sure not going to entertain any other possibility.

This. There's no sense in starting off negative. If we work this right he certainly can win. We have time between now and the primaries to talk to all of our neighbors and friends about why none of the other choices being currently offered up as "frontrunners" for either of the two parties has a prayer of fixing this country.

[TCE]

I will just report the factual: He is higher in the polls now than he was in 2006 and in 2007, so logically, his chances will be better.

[robertwerden]

When you make these polls, make it so we can see the asshole who says he will not win so we know who's ass to kick.

[MyLibertyStuff]

When you make these polls, make it so we can see the asshole who says he will not win so we know who's ass to kick.

Fear mongering! :D

[Kregisen]

If I got a million dollars for choosing the correct answer I would go with he's not gonna win.

Does he have a fair shot? Certainly. Obama came out of nowhere the year before the election....we have 2 years before this election and Ron is already getting popular.

Once Freedom watch makes it onto fox news, anything can and will happen. Think of what happens if 1 million weekly watchers (most of which republican) suddenly get exposed to libertarianism and change their stances on a number of issues.

Think about if somehow, someway, Glenn Beck doesn't lie and actually puts his money where his mouth is and actually endorse a libertarian candidate he says he agrees with.

If the election was today, Ron would not be president but in the next 2 years, there will be many changes.

We all have to bring it up with family and friends and we can change this country.

[MyLibertyStuff]

If I got a million dollars for choosing the correct answer I would go with he's not gonna win.

Does he have a fair shot? Certainly. Obama came out of nowhere the year before the election....we have 2 years before this election and Ron is already getting popular.

Once Freedom watch makes it onto fox news, anything can and will happen. Think of what happens if 1 million weekly watchers (most of which republican) suddenly get exposed to libertarianism and change their stances on a number of issues.

Think about if somehow, someway, Glenn Beck doesn't lie and actually puts his money where his mouth is and actually endorse a libertarian candidate he says he agrees with.

If the election was today, Ron would not be president but in the next 2 years, there will be many changes.

We all have to bring it up with family and friends and we can change this country.

I agree. We would not stand a chance today. But with the trends I am seeing, I think we have it in 2012.

[tremendoustie]

I'd love to be wrong, but I don't think he'd win.

I do think he'd have the most massive impact for freedom in decades, and utterly shatter the political paradigm as we know it.

On reflection, let me put it this way. I think he'd win. I think we'd all win, I think Liberty would win, our children would win, and our children's children would win. But I don't think he'd get the most votes.

[Philhelm]

I'm going to have to lean toward not winning. However, that is only because the Republican party will fight him tooth and nail during the primary. If he becomes the Republican candidate, I believe that he would win by a Ronslide. I'd be happy just to see a debate between Ron Paul and Obama, at the very least. Imagine how embarassing that would be for Obama, particularly on certain issues, such as the war and the PATRIOT Act. Ron Paul's greatest battle will be against his own party, and the legions of pseudo-conservatives who will rally around the likes of Romney and his ilk.

[heavenlyboy34]

It's still too soon for RP to become "mainstream" IMHO

[micahnelson]

If he ran as an independent, and there was another principled independent candidate who would split votes from the democrats, Ron could win in a 4 way election. I think he might even have better odds than the other 3.

If It was Ron Paul v. Obama in 2012, I dont think he would win. If it was Ron Paul v. Obama v. GOP Candidate I don't think he would win either.

[MyLibertyStuff]

If he ran as an independent, and there was another principled independent candidate who would split votes from the democrats, Ron could win in a 4 way election. I think he might even have better odds than the other 3.

If It was Ron Paul v. Obama in 2012, I dont think he would win. If it was Ron Paul v. Obama v. GOP Candidate I don't think he would win either.

I have to disagree. I think the only way Obama can win a second term (let alone against an intellectual giant such as Ron Paul) is if the Republicans run another Bush :D

I think the Republican party is starting to lean Libertarian as well, solely due to need. Perhaps they are just making it seem like they understand our views to their sheeple though...We will see

[Kregisen]

^Rasmussen did a poll of Paul vs Obama, and Obama won 42-41%....but only because only 66% of republicans voted for Paul (probably due to most of them not even knowing who he is at the time)

Paul won the independents 47% to Obama's 28%.

If he won the nomination he would destroy Obama.

[MyLibertyStuff]

^Rasmussen did a poll of Paul vs Obama, and Obama won 42-41%....but only because only 66% of republicans voted for Paul (probably due to most of them not even knowing who he is at the time)

Paul won the independents 47% to Obama's 28%.

If he won the nomination he would destroy Obama.

Couldnt have said it better

[micahnelson]

I saw the poll. Don't get me wrong, I'm going to bust my ass no matter how he runs- I guess I'm just unimpressed by the GOPs newfound embrace of libertarianism. It seems like they go along with it on the domestic front as long as the drug war and nationbuilding can continue and corporatist tendencies go unimpeded.

But, i'll gladly put on my goofy straw hat with an R on it if he does go GOP.

[FSP-Rebel]

Ron Paul's greatest battle will be against his own party, and the legions of pseudo-conservatives who will rally around the likes of Romney and his ilk.
Agreed. We need to nail his ass to the wall over his Mass health care plan. The Obamacare is basically the main rallying point on the right these days it seems. I think Huckabee will be the main challenge though, if he runs.

[paulitics]

I think he can win the Iowa Straw Poll.

[Natalie]

Ron is going to win in 2012!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeahhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!1

[JCF]

He'd do well in the general, don't think he'll win the nom though... But the whole pooint (imo) is to spread the message and I'm sure our movement will definitely grow in size again, more so in 2016.

I'm more concerned with getting people in the house and senate.

[ChaosControl]

I'd say he will get maybe 10% of the primary vote and end up losing out to Romney/Huckabee in the end.

[MyLibertyStuff]

Agreed. We need to nail his ass to the wall over his Mass health care plan. The Obamacare is basically the main rallying point on the right these days it seems. I think Huckabee will be the main challenge though, if he runs.

Yes, the primary will absolutely be the biggest obstacle. If we get that nomination, we will win.

I think that the Ron Paul campaign will be able to beat Huckabee in the primary this time around. He cant be ignored this time around. That will change everything. (imo)

[klamath]

RP is still considered two extreme but if the economy is still in the tank and getting worse I think he has a chance. People will be looking for a really different way. Reagan was considered extreme to the electorate including the republican party before the the economy turned so bad in 1980.

[klamath]

Yes, the primary will absolutely be the biggest obstacle. If we get that nomination, we will win.

I think that the Ron Paul campaign will be able to beat Huckabee in the primary this time around. He cant be ignored this time around. That will change everything. (imo)
Actually Rand's race will be a foresight into what a RP run could look like. If Rand loses the general I would say all those that say RP would have an easyer time in the general election than the primaries have it wrong. If Rand and his mild statements are considered to extreme for KY RP would really really be considered to extreme for the country.

[MyLibertyStuff]

Actually Rand's race will be a foresight into what a RP run could look like. If Rand loses the general I would say all those that say RP would have an easyer time in the general election than the primaries have it wrong. If Rand and his mild statements are considered to extreme for KY RP would really really be considered to extreme for the country.

I think the Rand Paul campaign is more important than most know. If he loses, the media will drill that into Ron Paul 2012. Great ammo.

However, the Ron Paul campaign will have massive support nation wide. I know I will be out there every day I can be, spreading the word the most effective way I can. In contrast, I barely pay attention to the Rand Paul campaign. I assume many people here are similar in that.

[Romulus]

Who cares!! (well, I do) but even so, the satisfaction we ALL would get, with Ron in the debates is priceless. If only to piss off the Media and the Establishment HACKS!.

Not to mention the fact, how many more people would wake up? I used to be a Neocon. There, I said it. Now, who many more are we going to effect with another run at it. It's a Win Win no matter what!

RP 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MyLibertyStuff]

Who cares!! (well, I do) but even so, the satisfaction we ALL would get, with Ron in the debates is priceless. If only to piss off the Media and the Establishment HACKS!.

Not to mention the fact, how many more people would wake up? I used to be a Neocon. There, I said it. Now, who many more are we going to effect with another run at it. It's a Win Win no matter what!

RP 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I definitely agree with this!

[specsaregood]

If I got a million dollars for choosing the correct answer I would go with he's not gonna win.


And there is the problem; there are people/groups literally making billions of dollars off him not winning.

[Philhelm]

who cares!! (well, i do) but even so, the satisfaction we all would get, with ron in the debates is priceless. If only to piss off the media and the establishment hacks!.

Not to mention the fact, how many more people would wake up? I used to be a neocon. There, i said it. Now, who many more are we going to effect with another run at it. It's a win win no matter what!

Rp 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

+1984

[freshjiva]

I don't know if Ron will win in '12, but I'm voting for Alex Merced in '24 :)

[MyLibertyStuff]

Will Mitchell 2036

[messana]

The media and the corporations will never allow to give the man who 'bites the hand that feeds them' a fair chance.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

I think he would have a very, very good shot. What destroyed Goldwater in 64 was his hawkish, interventionist views (Even though LBJ was more of one...). Ron has a principled foreign policy, one founded not on principles antithetical to liberty and self-ownership; but also of Christian Just War Theory. Its high time he starts educating Christians about their own religion, and intellectuals. Besides, by 2012 Obama's approval is going to be around George Bush at his lowest.

I think what is more intriguing though, is if he wins what are his cabinet positions going to look like, and what is he going to do about anti-liberty, and un-constitutional cabinets. I hope he would not appoint anyone, and let it officially "die" off for 4 years, and hopefully abolish it in that time. If we get a lot of libertarians elected, or at least enough of a caucus to push legislation through with Ron out in front its certainly possible. Ron will be telling the nation the truth, and I hope he uses Patrick Henry's famous lines in that regard. Also, you have to know the White House is going to be filled with a ton of people there who absolutely hate it there and want to abolish 99% of it!

:p

Thomas Woods for Treasury
Lew Rockwell Fed Chairman (expose the fraud, secrets, extortion, racketeering, counterfeit, etc. <3)
LvMI, FFF, FEE, etc. for economic council
Justin Raimondo State or Defense Department ::smile::

Obviously I don't think thats going to happen, but it would be cool to see how much we could accomplish in 4 years, and any longer than that corruption is going to sink in like a cesspool as it always does.

[specsaregood]

Lew Rockwell Fed Chairman (expose the fraud, secrets, extortion, racketeering, counterfeit, etc. <3)


Not possible. The president is only allowed to "appoint" somebody from a preapproved list of candidates given to him by the federal reserve board. He can't just put whomever he wants in that position.

[tnvoter]

just imagine it... Ron Paul vs Obama in a debate... OMG

[WaltM]

those who think he will win the election of 2012 for President, need to explain why he's not announced it and raised the money by now.

[t0rnado]

I'd support him to the very end, but I don't think Diebold would allow him to win.

[jake]

he will win only if we believe he can

[Wolverine302]

there is a lot of money going the other way. we're up against the media, social elite, and great lobbyist power that keep this machine oiled up, dirty oil but lubbed up none the less.

[charrob]

it depends on what the economy is doing and if the war is still going strong.

if the war is winding down, rightwingers might support him; my only observation is that the country seems to be going to the hard right morally and socially-- so stuff like the war on the drugs, gay marriage, could hurt him.

else if the war is still going strong, running independent would pick up votes from the left. If he partnered with a Kucinich, he'd get alot of voters from the left.

libertarian is sort of half and half: it takes the economics from the right and the social values from the left. -because of this, it seems like it would make sense, then, to bring in the disenfranchised left who are not represented by anyone at this point.

[cindy25]

only Republican base trending right on social issues.

If there are more wars (Iran, possibly Korea) an anti-war candidate could win as an independent.

[sailingaway]

^Rasmussen did a poll of Paul vs Obama, and Obama won 42-41%....but only because only 66% of republicans voted for Paul (probably due to most of them not even knowing who he is at the time)

Paul won the independents 47% to Obama's 28%.

If he won the nomination he would destroy Obama.

this. The primary IS the election, for Ron Paul.

[sailingaway]

just imagine it... Ron Paul vs Obama in a debate... OMG

This is worth whatever works it takes, win or no win, in any event....

[TheConstitutionLives]

Those who think he'll win are either on crack or in complete denial of reality.

[Kregisen]

Those who think he'll win are either on crack or in complete denial of reality.

Pessimist! CRUCIFY HIM!!!

[MyLibertyStuff]

Those who think he'll win are either on crack or in complete denial of reality.

Read...all above comments

[BuddyRey]

I can't deny that more and more people are waking up every day, or that revolution is in the air moreso now than at any other time in my memory. But the same was true during the 2008 campaign also, and it ju7st wasn't enough.

So, the question becomes, have the ideas of liberty really reached critical mass, and if not, how do we assure that it does in time for 2012? I really do believe Ron Paul can win, but so much of this depends on our own community and how effective we are at reaching out to people with the message.

[Promontorium]

He wouldn't even win the nom. He'd be lucky to carry 1 state without controversy. I do not mark it as an inevitable failure of Ron Paul or his supporters. I just know most people are idiots.

Hobbes thought it was a great equality among men that all men believe themselves to be of a higher intelligence than most others. Does the fact that I think myself more foolish than most mean I'm exceptionally intelligent or profoundly stupid?

Either way. Obama won by speaking in allusions and generalities. This allowed for the idiots to imagine he's for everything they're for. It also allows the anti-intellectual media to report anti-intellectual generalities to the anti-intellectual populace.

Ron Paul's politics are irrelevant, all politics are irrelevant you simply need to fit an image and correctly make the emotional appeals. If I were like Abraham and I had to convince God to spare America I'd have to barter God down to about 1% of the people.


The reason many of us curse democracy is the same reason Paul won't ever be president. Every intellectual statement, every logical speech, every specific issue Paul addresses wins him over 1, and permanently loses him 9 others.

Every single time you present the majority with 2 options, 1 fiscal responsibility with logical limitations, or 2. Spend more, spend more, mention babies and kittens and homeless and it will always be SPEND MORE. there is no limit when emotion runs the mind. The only limitations will be in collapsing systems. People's brains are broken. As a species we force excess and tyranny until it falls apart, and then start over.

[AcousticFoodie]

Every single time you present the majority with 2 options, 1 fiscal responsibility with logical limitations, or 2. Spend more, spend more, mention babies and kittens and homeless and it will always be SPEND MORE. there is no limit when emotion runs the mind. The only limitations will be in collapsing systems. People's brains are broken. As a species we force excess and tyranny until it falls apart, and then start over.

Have you ever seen "idiocracy?" I think you'll like that movie. And yes i agree

[Golding]

No. He will be actively trashed instead of outright ignored like last time. I'm sure they've learned their lessons seeing the aftermath in 2008.

[cindy25]

just imagine it... Ron Paul vs Obama in a debate... OMG

it won't be Obama, the Dems will nominate Hillary

[rprprs]

it won't be Obama, the Dems will nominate Hillary

I would not expect this to happen.
Barring health issues or some other non-political factor, the "issue" of race will preclude Obama being replaced as the nominee.

[fisharmor]

The primary IS the election, for Ron Paul.

In order:

Obama vs. McCain clone (like Romney): Obama win.
Obama vs. still glass of water: Obama win.
Obama vs. sparkling water: sparkling water win.
Obama vs. some other Republican who doesn't have a head injury or a kiddie porn addiction: Republican win.

Since RP is several steps higher on that ladder, it's obvious.
Now that the media has been silenced in the Gulf, I can't imagine they'd be trumpeting BHO's supremacy this time.

As stated, the trick is getting him there. The Republican party had a lot of chances to support candidates who would have won in 2008, but they didn't. Because they know that if they ever supported radical changes, their handlers won't be that happy with them. A loss for McCain is better in their eyes than a loss for the system. And a loss for their next hand-picked muppet in 2012 will also be preferable for them.

They already proved that nobody cares if they ignore parliamentary procedure, stuff ballot boxes, shut down conventions, cut off microphones, lie, cheat, and steal. Honestly, after four years of Chicago politics running things, I think we need to be realistic and consider that even murder will be an option on the table for them in 2012.

[charrob]

it won't be Obama, the Dems will nominate Hillary

Obama will replace Biden with Hillary: and this is the one card up Obama's sleeve that will do it and give him a win for 2012.

What we need is a campaign to show democrats that Hillary is actually more hawkish than Obama (which she is).

The left would grow to hate her as much, or more, than they hate Obama now for not representing them. What our job to do is get the word out that she would even be worse for them (and she will).

It will be a tough sell: her "healthcare" issue rang strongly with the dems: if RP runs with Kucinich as his VP on an indep. ticket, what we need to do is show Kucinich's bill for single-payer as a "States Rights" issue to be determined at the state level is/was far superior to HillaryCare.

Only if the war is going strong could RP win the Obama/Hillary team. And boy would i love to see that team smashed once and for all because we'd be smashing not just the team but corporate cronyism, lobbyists, neocons, and wto supporters in one swell swoop. America would be free from the special interests- at least in one part of our gov't.

[sailingaway]

Obama will replace Biden with Hillary: and this is the one card up Obama's sleeve that will do it and give him a win for 2012.

What we need is a campaign to show democrats that Hillary is actually more hawkish than Obama (which she is).

The left would grow to hate her as much, or more, than they hate Obama now for not representing them. What our job to do is get the word out that she would even be worse for them (and she will).

It will be a tough sell: her "healthcare" issue rang strongly with the dems: if RP runs with Kucinich as his VP on an indep. ticket, what we need to do is show Kucinich's bill for single-payer as a "States Rights" issue to be determined at the state level is/was far superior to HillaryCare.

Only if the war is going strong could RP win the Obama/Hillary team. And boy would i love to see that team smashed once and for all because we'd be smashing not just the team but corporate cronyism, lobbyists, neocons, and wto supporters in one swell swoop. America would be free from the special interests- at least in one part of our gov't.

Actually, Hillary is more conservative than Obama all around. Her base is different from Obama's base. I don't think they care much about 'hawkish' I think RP could win the progressives in that scenario, but what will hit Hillary's 'liberals' is her devotion to NAFTA etc, patriot act. She did vote against FISA but it was opposite all else she did so it looked like a political ploy to me. It won't look like that to her supporters, though.