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View Full Version : New York Times: North Carolina's 4th District "In Play"




dr. hfn
06-30-2010, 02:41 PM
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house

http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/posts/new-york-times-north-carolinas-4th-district-in-play

Michigan11
06-30-2010, 04:34 PM
Looks like his fundraising is increasing steadily too. Over his $50,000 mark from donors who will continue to give again, and growing..

dr. hfn
06-30-2010, 04:35 PM
this is great news!

rancher89
06-30-2010, 06:44 PM
Sweet, very sweet!

dr. hfn
07-02-2010, 06:40 PM
bump!

Romantarchist
07-20-2010, 11:23 AM
:mad: I looked this same page today and North Carolina's 4th District has gone out of play, having reverted to "Safe Democrat".

Why?

I did a little research and found that Republicans won this district in 1994 50-49. And that's assuming that the Republican who won it was a typical party-line Republican. 2010 in many ways will be a repeat of 1994 but it'll be even better because Lawson has many positions that will push Democrats over to his side. Plus, Price is alot older now (although that might actually be an advantage for him) at a time when a younger, hipper generation of leaders is emerging.

There is no reason for the New York Times to believe that David Price will have an easy victory. He most certainly WILL NOT.

Send a big middle finger to the establishment media and send Lawson some money.

BuddyRey
07-20-2010, 02:52 PM
Go Lawson!

PBrady
07-21-2010, 03:00 PM
I love how it changes back AFTER news that Price is opening a campaign office (in a very weak area for him) for the first time in a decade. Whether or not the NYT thinks the district is in play, David Price does.

martinavila
07-29-2010, 09:22 AM
Apparently they looked at voter registration. Hilarious, because when you look at 2006 (the last off-year election), this district is in play.

GunnyFreedom
07-29-2010, 09:34 AM
Apparently they looked at voter registration. Hilarious, because when you look at 2006 (the last off-year election), this district is in play.

It sems that the NYTimes cannot conceive of North Carolina's electoral situation, where a rather large proportion of registered Democrats vote nearly exclusively Republican, but maintain their Dem registration because "Mah grammaw and Robert E Lee would roll ovah in theih graves if'n ah joined that dam Lincoln's party..."

martinavila
07-29-2010, 11:51 AM
It sems that the NYTimes cannot conceive of North Carolina's electoral situation, where a rather large proportion of registered Democrats vote nearly exclusively Republican, but maintain their Dem registration because "Mah grammaw and Robert E Lee would roll ovah in theih graves if'n ah joined that dam Lincoln's party..."

Some of that yes, but honestly it all comes down to who comes out for elections in an off-year? Not college students or people who just voted for Obama, and BJ outperformed traditional Republicans in this district in the face of that -- positioning him nicely for this cycle.

Now we just need to raise more funds to get out ahead of David Price to start phrasing the arguments.

South Park Fan
08-01-2010, 12:10 PM
RealClearPolitics shows that the Republicans have a 5 point lead on the generic congressional ballot. If that 16 point swing is consistant in this district, Lawson should only be trailing by 10 points, give or take. That seems to be winnable.

martinavila
08-01-2010, 01:47 PM
Rasmussen says 10 points.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

South Park Fan
08-02-2010, 10:36 AM
Rasmussen says 10 points.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

That's even better. We really need to give him the same fundraising we gave him in 2008.

rancher89
08-02-2010, 10:42 AM
Don't forget Independents (or unaffiliated)--THE largest political "party" and growing. More people are choosing to NOT be labeled either "D" or "R"......

I think, IMHO, BJ has a real chance to win his race this year.

GunnyFreedom
08-02-2010, 10:44 AM
Well, I'm trailing by 2 points when you take the district leanings and add it to the generic ballot, but I can't do a whole lot with no volunteers only $6k in donations to date. :(

ETA 1.5 points actually; but it won't matter when the Dem gets $95 k

georgiaboy
08-02-2010, 03:23 PM
Don't forget Independents (or unaffiliated)--THE largest political "party" and growing. More people are choosing to NOT be labeled either "D" or "R".......

Yeah, I just wish they'd think and vote independently -- establishment D and R still seem to carry the largest percentage of the vote totals on election days, regardless of how many voters state their independence, non-affiliation, or undecidedness.

South Park Fan
08-17-2010, 09:55 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

If Rasmussen is correct, then Lawson is in a dead heat with Price.

JamesButabi
08-17-2010, 10:01 AM
We need to set up a North Carolina event. Maybe a donation event to give 90% to BJ and 10% to Gunny.

Even something on short notice that pushes 100k through this would be a huge help on both ends.

BJ in Congress is no small feat. Haven't you heard this man speak? He will hold some people accountable.

klamath
08-17-2010, 12:23 PM
We need to set up a North Carolina event. Maybe a donation event to give 90% to BJ and 10% to Gunny.

Even something on short notice that pushes 100k through this would be a huge help on both ends.

BJ in Congress is no small feat. Haven't you heard this man speak? He will hold some people accountable.

Why 90% to BJ and only 10% to Gunny? Seems Gunny has a better chance to win.

ARealConservative
08-17-2010, 12:27 PM
Why 90% to BJ and only 10% to Gunny? Seems Gunny has a better chance to win.

a US House member can vote in a way that helps me. So the difference is the scope of the position being sought.

JamesButabi
08-17-2010, 03:33 PM
Why 90% to BJ and only 10% to Gunny? Seems Gunny has a better chance to win.

The elections are very different and require different levels of monetary influence. I thought 10% was generous for the position being sought. It would probably double his funds and give him a huge boost.

Nathan Hale
08-19-2010, 10:04 AM
Gunny may have a better chance of winning based on generic polling, but if he only has $6K in the bank and no volunteers, that speaks to other problems. Generic polling won't carry a campaign that isn't performing.

Gunny, I don't know your background. But I know that people who are successful at the state level and lower are successful because they are very active in their community and well-versed not on strong ideological stands, but on specific legislative items and local issues. The fact that you don't have any volunteers says to me that you don't have a strong base in the community. That's problematic. You can't ride to victory in a state level race with a couple of local RP guys and a money bomb over the internet.

Ironically, that's an approach that works better at US House level and up, because we can concentrate resources locally through national distribution.

erowe1
08-19-2010, 10:28 AM
a US House member can vote in a way that helps me. So the difference is the scope of the position being sought.

An NC State House member (in this coming term) can vote in a way that impacts the US House by voting on the post-census redistricting that will happen, thus determining whether or not BJ Lawson is in a district he can win in 2012.

GunnyFreedom
08-19-2010, 10:41 AM
An NC State House member (in this coming term) can vote in a way that impacts the US House by voting on the post-census redistricting that will happen, thus determining whether or not BJ Lawson is in a district he can win in 2012.

That's actually very true. Our biggest enemy to Audit the Fed, Mel Watt, is 75% untouchable unless we redistric in a way that erases the gerrymander.


Gunny may have a better chance of winning based on generic polling, but if he only has $6K in the bank and no volunteers, that speaks to other problems. Generic polling won't carry a campaign that isn't performing.

Gunny, I don't know your background. But I know that people who are successful at the state level and lower are successful because they are very active in their community and well-versed not on strong ideological stands, but on specific legislative items and local issues. The fact that you don't have any volunteers says to me that you don't have a strong base in the community. That's problematic. You can't ride to victory in a state level race with a couple of local RP guys and a money bomb over the internet.

Ironically, that's an approach that works better at US House level and up, because we can concentrate resources locally through national distribution.

Well, given that Civitas has this district at 6 points Democrat, the tail-wind should be 5points Republican, that should make me 1 point Democrat -- but my recent PPP poll puts me 8 points ahead, then I must be doing something right by 9 points. :D


The elections are very different and require different levels of monetary influence. I thought 10% was generous for the position being sought. It would probably double his funds and give him a huge boost.

Indeed, I thought $10k would be a gigantic help. :)


a US House member can vote in a way that helps me. So the difference is the scope of the position being sought.

Without our people in the NC State House, Mel Watt, scurrilous enemy of Audit The Fed and End The Fed, is totally invulnerable and will remain so for a decade at minimum and probably for several decades. :)

Imperial
08-19-2010, 01:36 PM
Last election [in 2008], BJ received 36% of the vote. If I am being completely honest, I don't think BJ will win this election. I feel like he should have run for state house with Gunny.

That being said, I actually feel like BJ can win this seat in 2012. However, this will require two things to happen.

1) BJ must out-perform his 2008 performance. This is perceived as a Republican year, so as a minimum he must crack 40%. However, if he hits 45% then that will really get the attention of the national party. In a Republican-friendly year with a candidate who can consolidate indy support, we basically control how strong of a run BJ can make. 2012 we could really make a strong pitch to take out Price.

2) Republicans need to take control of redistricting. I don't know how close North Carolina Republicans are to this, but if they could do this then I think BJ's district could be made winnable. They need to pick up 8 seats in the General Assembly to split the chamber (currently controlled by Democrats). The Senate seems to be a lost cause this cycle; It is 30-20 Democrat, with a Dem Lt Gov who can break ties.

BTW, we got Rand Paul and Mike Munger out of Duke; why did we have to get David Price?

South Park Fan
08-19-2010, 02:19 PM
Last election [in 2008], BJ received 36% of the vote. If I am being completely honest, I don't think BJ will win this election. I feel like he should have run for state house with Gunny.

That being said, I actually feel like BJ can win this seat in 2012. However, this will require two things to happen.

1) BJ must out-perform his 2008 performance. This is perceived as a Republican year, so as a minimum he must crack 40%. However, if he hits 45% then that will really get the attention of the national party. In a Republican-friendly year with a candidate who can consolidate indy support, we basically control how strong of a run BJ can make. 2012 we could really make a strong pitch to take out Price.

2) Republicans need to take control of redistricting. I don't know how close North Carolina Republicans are to this, but if they could do this then I think BJ's district could be made winnable. They need to pick up 8 seats in the General Assembly to split the chamber (currently controlled by Democrats). The Senate seems to be a lost cause this cycle; It is 30-20 Democrat, with a Dem Lt Gov who can break ties.

BTW, we got Rand Paul and Mike Munger out of Duke; why did we have to get David Price?

I thought he got 37%. But, generic polls show that Republicans will do significantly better than 2008, the R-D gap should be at least 15 points towards the Republicans. Given that, Lawson will be the underdog, but a win would not be impossible.