Gulf Hurricane + Oil spill = Oilicane (unprecedented natural disaster)

[qh4dotcom]

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/4398/An-Oilicane?

Imagine a storm surge of water plus oil

Imagine the winds of a hurricane mixed with oil



I have seen hurricanes and tropical storms that have blown salt spray many miles inland from the coast. The leaves of the trees eventually turn brown and fall off. In the case of the gulf it will be oil that will spray the trees, buildings and everything else in the way. How far inland this oily mess will blow is anyone’s guess but it will be unprecedented in its economic and environmental damage.

The recovery period after a hurricane can take years. It was 10 years until some communities fully recovered from Hurricane Andrew in South Florida, some never recovered at all. The New Orleans area is still putting itself back together after Katrina in 2005. The recovery period after an oil-soaked hurricane -- or what could be called an Oilicane – is impossible to forecast but it could take years and many billions of dollars. One wonders if BP has the money to survive such a unique disaster. The human and natural losses from such an event could be historic.

[tmosley]

Now imagine if someone lights a match.

FIRECANE!

[Tabby]

:) XKCD:
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/worst_case_scenario.png

[jclay2]

:) XKCD:
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/worst_case_scenario.png

now thats a worse case scenario! LOL very funny

[qh4dotcom]

:) XKCD:
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/worst_case_scenario.png

Ha Ha Ha

[speciallyblend]

still not a natural disaster!! it would be a natural and man-made disaster!!!

[MsDoodahs]

How far inland did the Katrina storm surge travel?

South of I-10.....

[Kylie]

This will not end well.


If it does become a big storm, you guys get your asses up here. We will help somehow.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Good news / bad news scenario...

The good news: a light spread of oil further inland is probably better from a microbial digestion standpoint than a heavy concentration in a confined area.

The bad news is no control of the spill for an estimated 10 days so a lot more oil to deal with.

-t

[tremendoustie]

still not a natural disaster!! it would be a natural and man-made disaster!!!

man and nature combining their destructive capacities! *shudder

[tangent4ronpaul]

still not a natural disaster!! it would be a natural and man-made disaster!!!

Where do you draw the line between natural and man made? Is there one?

-t

[newbitech]

Slightly off topic but, tonight on the west coast of Florida I watched the very very very edge of this system (TD 1 soon to be TS Alex in the southern gulf) flare up in a brilliant lighting storm at sunset. It was cloud to cloud and the tops must have been 35,000-40,000 feet high.

This was an amazing cumulonimbus calvus and the top just got ripped apart by this newly forming cyclone.

I am not a weather forecaster, but living on the eastern gulf, I have learned how to read the weather patterns during hurricane season and I watch the water vapor loops at noaa.

This storm that is developing is sucking in lot of energy right now. Think of an ice skater with her arms out. That is what this storm is right now. Its going to reemerge over the "mountains" of the Yucatan and strengthen in the hot southern gulf.

It is going to be a very slow moving storm, and I would not be surprised to see it stall in the southern gulf then take a sharp east turn.

here is the water vapor loop. Notice the circulation extending over Tampa bay. See the two big blobs forming over FL and getting sucked into the Gulf? The smaller one to the north is the one I saw. Lots of HOT WET air getting sucked up right now.

We have been drier than normal the last month, and our only really big storm produced quarter sized hail and down drafts last week that ripped off live oak branches 8 inches thick.

I think this storm is going to pack a punch and surprise some people. We need to see it shear and rip apart before it reemerges over the Yucatan.

Unfortunately, the El Nino off the coast of Baha has subsided. The Jet stream is pushing far north.

Buckle up this year folks. Farmers almanac predicts an much more aggressive and active storm season this year than in years past. We are in a similar weather pattern that delivered 5 storms in 4 weeks to FL back in 04.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[raiha]

with all that methane in the mix, i imagine the least of anyone's worries will be acid rain or Carville riding a burning alligator...

http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3A//www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/210610.php


Gulf Oil Gusher: Danger of Tsunamis From Methane?

London, UK - 21st June 2010, 11:55 GMT

Dear ATCA Open & Philanthropia Friends

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Updated with a References section on June 24th, 2010 at 23:30 BST:

A new and less well known asymmetric threat has surfaced in the Gulf of Mexico oil gusher. Methane or CH4 gas is being released in vast quantities in the Gulf waters. Seismic data shows huge pools of methane gas at the location immediately below and around the damaged "Macondo" oil well. Methane is a colourless, odourless and highly flammable substance which forms a major component in natural gas. This is the same gas that blew the top off Deepwater Horizon and killed 11 people. The "flow team" of the US Geological Survey estimates that 2,900 cubic feet of natural gas, which primarily contains methane, is being released into the Gulf waters with every barrel of oil. The constant flow of over 50,000 barrels of crude oil places the total daily amount of natural gas at over 145 million cubic feet. So far, over 8 billion cubic feet may have been released, making it one of the most vigorous methane eruptions in modern human history. If the estimates of 100,000 barrels a day -- that have emerged from a BP internal document -- are true, then the estimates for methane gas release might have to be doubled.


Tsunami: Low Probability High Impact Event

Warnings

Older documents indicate that the subterranean geological formation below the "Macondo" well in the Gulf of Mexico may contain the presence of a huge methane deposit. It has been a well known fact that the methane in that oil deposit was problematic. As a result, there was a much higher risk of a blow out. Macondo shares its name with the cursed town in the novel "One Hundred Years of Solitude" by the Nobel-prize winning writer Gabriel Garcia Marquez.

By some geologists' estimates, the methane could be a massive bubble trapped for thousands of years under the Gulf of Mexico sea floor. More than a year ago, geologists expressed alarm in regard to BP and Transocean putting their exploratory rig directly over this massive underground reservoir of methane. Warnings were raised before the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe that the area of seabed chosen might be unstable and inherently dangerous.

Methane and Poison Gas Bubble

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has found high concentrations of gases in the Gulf of Mexico area. The escape of other poisonous gases associated with an underground methane bubble -- such as hydrogen sulfide, benzene and methylene chloride -- have also been found. Recently, the EPA measured hydrogen sulfide at more than 1,000 parts per billion (ppb) -- well above the normal 5 to 10 ppb. Some benzene levels were measured near the Gulf of Mexico in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 ppb -- up from the normal 0 to 4 ppb. Benzene gas is water soluble and is a carcinogen at levels of 1,000 ppb according to the EPA. Upon using a GPS and depth finder system, experts have discovered a large gas bubble, 15 to 20 miles wide and tens of feet high, under the ocean floor. These bubbles are common. Some even believe that the rapid release of similar bubbles may have caused the sinking of ships and planes in the Bermuda Triangle.

50,000 to 100,000 PSI

The intractable problem is that this methane, located deep in the bowels of the earth, is under tremendous pressure. Experts agree that the pressure that blows the oil into the Gulf waters is estimated to be between 30,000 and 70,000 pounds per square inch (psi). Some speculate that the pressure of the methane at the base of the well head, deep under the ocean floor, may be as high as 100,000 psi -- far too much for current technology to contain. The shutoff valves and safety measures were only built for thousands of psi at best. There is no known device to cap a well with such an ultra high pressure.

Oxygen Depletion

The crude oil from the "Macondo" well, which is damaging the Gulf of Mexico, contains around 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits. Scientists warn that gases such as methane, hydrogen sulfide and benzene, along with oil, are now depleting the oxygen in the water and are beginning to suffocate marine life creating vast "dead zones". As small microbes living in the sea feed on oil and natural gas, they consume large amounts of oxygen which they require in order to digest food, ie, convert it into energy. There is an environmental ripple effect: when oxygen levels decrease, the breakdown of oil can't advance any further.

Fissures or Cracks

According to geologists, the first signs that the methane may burst its way through the bottom of the ocean would be manifest via fissures or cracks appearing on the ocean floor near the path of least resistance, ie, the damaged well head. Evidence of fissures opening up on the seabed have been captured by the robotic midget submarines working to repair and contain the ruptured well. Smaller, independent plumes have also appeared outside the nearby radius of the bore hole. When reviewing video tapes of the live BP feeds, one can see in the tapes of mid-June that there is oil spewing up from visible fissions. Geologists are pointing to new fissures and cracks that are appearing on the ocean floor.

Fault Areas

The stretching and compression of the earth's crust causes minor cracking, called faults, and the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico has many such fault areas. Fault areas run along the Gulf of Mexico and well inland in Mexico, South and East Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the extreme western Florida Panhandle. The close coupling of new fissures and cracks with natural fault areas could prove to be lethal.

Bubble Eruption

A methane bubble this large -- if able to escape from under the ocean floor through fissures, cracks and fault areas -- is likely to cause a gas explosion. With the emerging evidence of fissures, the tacit fear now is this: the methane bubble may rupture the seabed and may then erupt with an explosion within the Gulf of Mexico waters. The bubble is likely to explode upwards propelled by more than 50,000 psi of pressure, bursting through the cracks and fissures of the sea floor, fracturing and rupturing miles of ocean bottom with a single extreme explosion.

Cascading Catastrophe Scenarios

1. Loss of Buoyancy

Huge methane gas bubbles under a ship can cause a sudden buoyancy loss. This causes a ship to tilt adversely or worse. Every ship, drilling rig and structure within a ten mile radius of the escaping methane bubble would have to deal with a rapid change in buoyancy, causing many oil structures in its vicinity to become unstable and ships to sink. The lives of all the workers, engineers, coast guard personnel and marine biologists -- measuring and mitigating the oil plumes' advance and assisting with the clean up -- could be in some danger. Therefore, advanced safety measures should be put in place.

2. First Tsunami with Toxic Cloud

If the toxic gas bubble explodes, it might simultaneously set off a tsunami travelling at a high speed of hundreds of miles per hour. Florida might be most exposed to the fury of a tsunami wave. The entire Gulf coastline would be vulnerable, if the tsunami is manifest. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and southern region of Georgia might experience the effects of the tsunami according to some sources.

3. Second Tsunami via Vaporisation

After several billion barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of gas have been released, the massive cavity beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalise, allowing freezing water to be forced naturally into the huge cavity where the oil and gas once were. The temperature in that cavity can be extremely hot at around 150 degrees celsius or more. The incoming water will be vaporised and turned into steam, creating an enormous force, which could actually lift the Gulf floor. According to computer models, a second massive tsunami wave might occur.

Conclusion

The danger of loss of buoyancy and cascading tsunamis in the Gulf of Mexico -- caused by the release of the massive methane and poisonous gas bubble -- has been a much lower probability in the early period of the crisis, which began on April 20th. However, as time goes by and the risk increases, this low probability high impact scenario ought not to be ignored, given that the safety and security of the personnel involved remains paramount. Could this be how nature eventually seals the hole created by the Gulf of Mexico oil gusher?

[ENDS]

[MelissaWV]

Is this seriously going to happen every time there's a wave/depression/storm/hurricane?

It is going to be a really long summer/autumn.

[qh4dotcom]

Is this seriously going to happen every time there's a wave/depression/storm/hurricane?

It is going to be a really long summer/autumn.

If it has a chance of becoming a hurricane and is projected to enter the Gulf, sure...why not?

[newbitech]

Is this seriously going to happen every time there's a wave/depression/storm/hurricane?

It is going to be a really long summer/autumn.


if you are where I am from, yeah. The oil just invites everyone else to join in the "fun".

[MelissaWV]

if you are where I am from, yeah. The oil just invites everyone else to join in the "fun".

I've spent a fair portion of my life in Florida. The tropics are just the go-to thing for the news stations. Heaven forbid something actually has a slim chance of headed towards Florida; the whole place goes batshit insane over even a minor tropical storm that won't hit anywhere near the viewing area.

Having been through various storms, it's not that difficult to prepare for them unless you've already set yourself up for disaster by living on the beach or in a trailer... or by being a ship in the Gulf.

The doomsday scenarios aren't accurate on this one, as much as people would like to spin it as such. It's just going to create a much larger mess since the ships have to scoot out of the vicinity as a precaution.

[Zippyjuan]

A hurrcane hitting the oilspill area would definately be a huge mess. Scientifically, there is another curiosity. How will the hurricane react when it reaches the oil covered water? In the past I recall there being suggested spreading something over the water in the gulf to reduce the intensity of the hurricane. The oil may reduce the amout of water the storm can suck up and spin and spread around. Since this has never happened before, nobody really knows. Storms get weaker when the pass over land and cannot draw up more moisture.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/may/24/241435/noaa-not-sure-how-hurricane-might-affect-oil-spill/news-breaking/

By ROB SHAW | The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 24, 2010

Updated: 05/24/2010 02:35 pm


TAMPA - Imagine a wind-whipped hurricane feasting on warm Gulf of Mexico waters as it marches toward the shore.

Then toss in 6 million gallons of oil.

Boats on the sea and workers on the shore would have to stop the cleanup. The big globs could be transported even farther inland to sensitive mangroves and marshes as the powerful storm surge is unleashed. The oil might be dispersed over a wider area. Pockets that had been lurking on the floor of the Gulf could be stirred up and strewn ashore.

It's a recipe for disaster.

"Hurricanes are a natural disaster,'' said Peter Clark, executive director of Tampa Bay Watch, a local environmental group. "This will only compound our hurricane season this year by combining it with the huge disaster that is going on in the Gulf of Mexico. Having tropical systems really creates a loose cannon out there.''

With the start of hurricane season just a few days away, and with a tropical system already threatening to form in the Atlantic, it also creates a lot of unanswered questions. After all, the Gulf has never seen a spill like this before – during a hurricane season or not.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scrambling to run models and simulations to see how such a huge spill can affect the hurricane season. Officials there say the spill won't have an effect on the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Beyond that, officials aren't sure what might happen. State meteorologist Amy Godsey called it "uncharted territory.''

There is a chance, experts say, that thick oil on the surface of the Gulf could be a positive. It actually could limit evaporation by not allowing the water to contact the air. Because hurricanes feed on warm waters to stay alive, that could mean there might be less moisture available and therefore reduce the hurricane's punch.

"If the oil spill was big enough, it could hurt the hurricane and help weaken it a little bit," Godsey said. "It doesn't stop it, but it can reduce it.''

High winds and seas from any tropical activity also could mix the oil more with the water, which would help to break it down, officials say. That could mean a slick could be turned into weathered patches or tar balls instead, Godsey said.

Hans Graber, a researcher at the University of Miami, said a tropical system in the Gulf could turn one continual carpet of oil into a multitude of smaller sections.

"Now you have them coming at you from all directions,'' Graber said. "You could have patches of oil floating here and there and another streak heading this way. You would not have much control over it any more. You would have to be on the beaches 24/7 and mop up as things come on shore.''

Much of the uncertainty about where the oil might move would depend on the track of any system.

"Everything that I have heard says it could push a large mass in another direction from where it is heading, which could include West Central Florida,'' Clark said. "That would be one of our worst fears and primary concerns as we go into the summer season. It also could spread it out over a much wider area; it could spread it out from Texas to Florida.''

The environmentalist is worried about what could happen with oil being transported to other coastal areas by fast-moving conveyor belts of water such as the loop current or Gulf Stream.

"It really opens the door for all of the coastal Gulf of Mexico and the east coast as well to be inundated by tropical storms and large quantities of oil," Clark said. "It's out of our hands.''

And that could be for some years to come.

"This could be several years that we are under the gun,'' said Clark, who worries that some of the oil will remain on the Gulf floor for years and then get churned later and resurface. "You may not be able to see it, but it will still be out there.''

[Live_Free_Or_Die]

We don't have to worry about it. We have the best representation the people can elect and they won't fail us.