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dt_
10-14-2007, 12:57 AM
Is it a feasible goal? It seems reasonable to expect a sudden increase in donations toward the end of the month, but will it be such an increase that will bump up donations to $4 million? :/

0zzy
10-14-2007, 12:59 AM
For this month? Maybe not.
12million overall? Well, online donations atm are going towards a 6million fundraiser. If he can pull 50% offline donations, we can.

But, ya, we need a boost.

yaz
10-14-2007, 01:01 AM
any ideas?

LBT
10-14-2007, 01:06 AM
It think they should have set targets like 2m, 3m and 4m over the next 3 months.

Better to over-deliver and generate some excitement by increasing targets once they are met. Certainly a 10 million goal over 3 months in online donations alone would be extremely newsworthy.

But too late now, we better just work as hard as we can to hit that 12 million mark. If that is hit, the old media will have to treat Ron Paul as first tier, if not the front runner.

reaver
10-14-2007, 01:06 AM
there are a couple of pledges, dont have the links on me.
One is get 1,000,000 supporters to donate $100.
Another is trying to get 100,000 to donate $1,000.

Ron Paul Fan
10-14-2007, 01:06 AM
I don't know if we can reach the $4 million this month. We just came off of the big fundraising splurge last quarter and we got off to a slow start. Chowda's projections have as at $2 million for this month, but I think we can raise that up to $3 million because the numbers will go up a lot at the end of the month. I do think we can get the $12 million though. Just because we don't reach our goal this month doesn't mean we won't reach the quarter goal. The plans are for the message to keep spreading and more donors to emerge. But reaching $4 million this month will be very tough because we'd have to raise $3 million of it in 16 days.

theseus51
10-14-2007, 01:17 AM
I think they came up with 12million as the amount they need, rather than the amount they thought they could get. They were like ok, if we want to do this all the way, we are going to need 12million. Let's just put it all out there, rather than make a lower goal, meet it, but it's not enough.

chowda
10-14-2007, 01:43 AM
there are a couple of pledges, dont have the links on me.
One is get 1,000,000 supporters to donate $100.
Another is trying to get 100,000 to donate $1,000.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/chipin.html

TechnoGuyRob
10-14-2007, 01:57 AM
Is it a feasible goal? It seems reasonable to expect a sudden increase in donations toward the end of the month, but will it be such an increase that will bump up donations to $4 million? :/

Yes.

Taco John
10-14-2007, 02:27 AM
We need our video guys to make a video that shows how Dr. Paul is on spending in comparison to his opponents, and not only gets people excited about a true fiscal conservative, but makes them want to open their checkbooks for him! Heck, I half expect that I'm going to get a refund from Dr. Paul come January of 2009. Haha!

chon
10-14-2007, 04:07 AM
after this month we get into the "giving" season so i think there are a few people holding out with big donations until christmas time. i'd like to see a "fill the candy cane" or "fill the turkeys beak" or something!!lol its seems people rally more around a quill or thermometer, its kinda like a game and people like a fun competition.

lapi7
10-14-2007, 04:10 AM
For this month 4 million seems unlikely.
However, when we start towards the finish line in December I think we'll see a big monatary "boost" somewhat like we had in the last quater.
I think 8 million (double what he did last quater) is feasible.

rockfree33
10-14-2007, 05:22 AM
I think we will reach 4 million this month. The last couple of hours there will be a last minute dash of donating to reach it. That's what brought down Intuit's servers for filing income taxes, filing around 60 returns per second. This is human nature, I just hope Ron Paul's servers can handle the traffic at the end of the month.

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/31668/113/

stevedasbach
10-14-2007, 06:01 AM
Is it a feasible goal? It seems reasonable to expect a sudden increase in donations toward the end of the month, but will it be such an increase that will bump up donations to $4 million? :/

Yes. At the current rate of increase, we will hit 3 million. A big push the last week should get us to four.

That assumes that HQ has been adding contributions by mail to the total as they go. If they haven't, then we are already farther along than it appears. Last quarter, online donations accounted for roughly 70% of the total (based on my estimates).

plopolp
10-14-2007, 06:33 AM
I don't understand what they were thinking of when assuming that the 12 million in Q4 would come in at constant rate. The donations are increasing exponentially. More realistically they should've divided it into 3, 4, 5 monthly or even 2, 4, 6. If 4 million in October is followed by 4 million in November, momentum has been lost and it would look bad even if the goal is reached.

Ron Paul Fan
10-14-2007, 06:37 AM
If looking bad means that we raised $8 million in 2 months then I'll take it! If we reach the goal of $4 million in October don't you think that'll be pretty big news? "Ron Paul, obscure Congressman from Texas, raises $4 million in one month. Can he keep it up or will he fizzle?" Then we do it again the next month and he's a shoe in to reach the top tier in money. I agree with you that they should have went 2-4-6, but what's done is done. And it won't be a disspointment if we raise $8 million in 2 months. I assure you that.

wsc321
10-14-2007, 06:46 AM
I think $4M this month is attainable and we'd better hit it... if not, the MSM will beat the drum that RP's campaign is beginning to weaken/fail, etc.

Ron Paul Fan
10-14-2007, 06:50 AM
I think $4M this month is attainable and we'd better hit it... if not, the MSM will beat the drum that RP's campaign is beginning to weaken/fail, etc.

Yeah, if we only come up with $3 million in one month they'll blast us all because we're starting to crumble! I can imagine the headlines now: "Libertarian Congressman Ron Paul ONLY raises $3 million in one month. This puts him on par to raise as much as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney did last quarter, but he didn't reach his goal and thus his campaign is slip sliding away."

walt
10-14-2007, 07:07 AM
Is it a feasible goal? It seems reasonable to expect a sudden increase in donations toward the end of the month, but will it be such an increase that will bump up donations to $4 million? :/

If you stopping posting stupid threads like this and get new supporters involved. Yes, it's feasible.

NinjaPirate
10-14-2007, 09:18 AM
It can be reached. If one can get all the Ron Paul meetup members to donate.

~55,000 meetup members * $60 = $3,330,000, which will put us over the top of the $4mil monthly goal.

Of course these are Ron Paul supporters whom are in plain sight. I know there are others (myself included) who are not meetup group members who can also donate to his campaign.

Edit: Oh yeah, plus the 4374 members who post here can also donate so: 55,000 + 4374 = 59,374 * $60 = $3,562,440

jesshwarren
10-14-2007, 09:30 AM
4mil $ it will be reached this month. Spread the word. If you support RP donate today, save tomorrow.

Kregener
10-14-2007, 09:31 AM
No, Really (http://www.lewrockwell.com/fisk/fisk22.html)

by Rick Fisk

While it represents less volume than responses stating agreement with my view of Ron Paul’s electoral chances, a portion of the emails I have been receiving represent a belief that I am overstating the case. I get a few telling me that there aren’t enough facts to support the case. I’m deluding myself and others or am simply naïve.

I was surprised that there are still some cynics represented amongst Ron Paul’s supporters. I imagine them pacing back and forth, wondering if Dr Paul has a realistic shot at winning the GOP nomination. "Does this Fisk guy really believe what he’s saying? Where’s the polling data? Where’s the real evidence? When is it okay for me to take the plunge? When will it be the right time so I don’t look like an idiot optimist acting out of irrational exuberance?"

I see it as obvious, though I was a cynic prior to Ron Paul’s Presidential bid. I prefer optimism. It’s easier on the circulatory system. On the other hand, there is evidence and it’s fair to ask.

Polling data is what seems to concern the doubters. Low polling numbers would appear to be an indictment. Last quarter in New Hampshire, Ron Paul was polling at 2% in those polls which included him.

This quarter, a recent poll in New Hampshire shows Ron Paul with 6%, 22% of those being black voters. That represents 66% increase over last quarter’s poll numbers. Where his competitors are just jockeying for position, Ron Paul is gaining significantly. By the way, in 2000, only 10% of Black voters gave Bush the nod.

I’ve previously written about the way these polls are conducted and their usefulness in predicting outcomes (they can’t by definition). However, there is historical data that also tends to support the idea that early polls are not reliable predictors.

In 2003, prior to the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries, Al Sharpton was beating John Kerry in the polls 5% to 4%. Kerry went on to win both primaries and shortly thereafter was polling nationally at 53%. That’s either a very large bump or a very inaccurate result prior to the primary. There are currently a significantly high number of undecided voters (hovering between 17% and 21%) amongst the Republicans. In a field this large where only Dr. Paul has a platform that represents a real difference in policy, the "upset" factor leans heavily in Ron Paul’s favor. Many of these undecideds are waiting to see how the race progresses before making a commitment.

Let’s look at the other areas which should give us rational, objective reasons to question what the old media is attempting to sell the public.

Fundraising is another indicator of real support. Ron Paul raised 5 million last quarter which isn’t as much as Thompson, Romney or Giuliani. But it represents a 114% increase over second quarter fundraising. It will also be used far more efficiently than other campaigns which have yet to acquire significant grass roots support for the money they’ve raised and spent so far. This is a very important issue. Romney has been running millions of dollars worth of television ads and does not have much to show for it. And more and more, old media members continue to hop on Ron Paul’s bandwagon.

The bad news for Paul’s competitors doesn’t stop there. James Dobson who has inherited the Christian Coalition (now "Values Voters") is threatening to pull his support from the entire GOP field. Ron Paul doesn’t necessarily need this segment of the Republican base to win the nomination but if we read Dobson’s message correctly, he would get that support if he were the nominee. The "front-runners" have no chance of carrying the Party without them and it doesn’t appear that any are pro-life enough for Dobson.

Romney’s campaign stops in New Hampshire are drawing no more than 100 supporters and I’m being generous (many of those are old media representatives). At one stop, he managed to commit the dumbest campaign move so far: turn his back on a wheel-chair-bound Muscular Dystrophy sufferer, who asked if Romney would have him arrested for using medical marijuana, while the cameras rolled.

John McCain was caught on tape at an event where a whopping one supporter(s) showed up to see what he had to say.

Fred Thompson hasn’t been on the trail very long, but has already been freeped by Ron Paul supporters at a stop in Iowa and had to literally request applause at a recent event attended by less than 50; perhaps they came merely out of curiosity given their apparent lack of enthusiasm for Thompson’s positions.

Unless Tancredo, Brownback, Keyes, Hunter and Huckabee are saving up campaign event videos, there seems to be no significant interest in their candidacies except by the small number of people contacted via landline for opinions.

In short, the other candidates have been as exciting to potential voters as watching paint dry.

None of the GOP candidates have had much luck beating Ron Paul in straw polls either. It’s hard to say how this might predict the outcome of primary elections. However, 14 of 30 first place finishes with 10 of 30 resulting in top 3 finishes is indisputable evidence that his chances are far more real than the old media is willing to admit. Many of the first place finishes were overwhelming landslides. If those represent party growth, we see another reason why Ron Paul has a very good chance to make history.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul has rarely drawn a crowd of less than 800 people for the past three months. On Saturday in Nashville, an event organized before his fundraising success had been announced, Dr. Paul drew a crowd of 1,440 at War Memorial auditorium. That was the crowd inside. Almost 100 people were turned away at the door because the venue was filled to capacity.

The prior week, in New Hampshire, at least 800 arrived to help the Paul Family canvas New Hampshire neighborhoods. These were not paid campaign staffers. Everyone there paid their own way, came from several surrounding states and worked all day to knock on some 12,000 doors in support of Ron Paul.

After last night’s debates, Ron Paul held a rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan. I caught a little bit of this from the live feed. In my estimation, there were almost 2000 people there. The growth in just the past few days has been staggering. The campaign has reported a daily sign up of 20,000 new supporters. If that pace remains steady, the number of new supporters will reach 600,000 before November 1st. (Hello? McFly! Does this seem like a long shot to you?)

From New Hampshire to Washington, thousands upon thousands have gathered at Ron Paul appearances. If this were happening for any of the alleged front-runners, it would generate an inordinate amount of press coverage. It isn’t happening. The rest of the field consists of paper tigers. Giuliani is said to "wow" crowds of 200.

New media types, even ones who are not necessarily Ron Paul supporters are openly saying that a Ron Paul upset in New Hampshire and Iowa is a very real possibility. Here’s what David Kopel had to say:


"This weekend, I attended and spoke at the Second Amendment Foundation’s annual Gun Rights Policy Conference, which was held at a convention center in northern Kentucky, a few miles away from Cincinnati. What I saw and heard there changed my mind about the viability of Ron Paul’s presidential candidacy; Paul is going to far outperform the expectations laid out for him."

As a supporter, I could be accused of being overly optimistic merely because I want him to win. I predicted he would win back in June before there was evidence of the statistical sort. Not because I am particularly smart, psychic or able to time-travel. It was (and is) the fervor of his supporters and the amazing coalition he has united to the message of freedom which made it obvious to me that this campaign is historic.

Please, fence-sitters out there: this revolution will roll with or without you. Do something that you haven’t done in a while and just get involved. Show up at an event, make a donation, believe. Oh, yeah, don’t expect me to revert to cynicism any time soon.

October 12, 2007

Rick Fisk is a 45-year-old software developer and entrepreneur. He is married, has 3 children and resides in Austin, TX.

Copyright © 2007 LewRockwell.com

inibo
10-14-2007, 01:06 PM
Call me a wacky conspiracy theorist, but my gut tells me the PCC would not have hung that $12 million goal out there unless they had every confidence we would meet it.

Either that or it is a put up or shut up thing. Ron Paul is working his behind off. We are obligated to do the same.

Suzu
10-14-2007, 01:23 PM
I predicted $7.5m for last quarter and was off by 1/3. So this quarter I am predicting $18m, which means $12m+ will be reached.

:D

jaumen
10-14-2007, 02:11 PM
Finally talked myself into parting with some more cash....

Mr. Jason Aumen,

Thank you very much for your donation of $100.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

Thanks for being a part of the campaign!

0zzy
10-14-2007, 02:13 PM
Finally talked myself into parting with some more cash....

Mr. Jason Aumen,

Thank you very much for your donation of $100.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

Thanks for being a part of the campaign!

good job: )

Elwar
10-14-2007, 02:19 PM
Most likely the number of donations will go up where october might be lower than 4 million, but december will be higher than 4 million...balancing it out.

TechnoGuyRob
10-14-2007, 02:26 PM
Finally talked myself into parting with some more cash....

Mr. Jason Aumen,

Thank you very much for your donation of $100.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

Thanks for being a part of the campaign!

If I was there, I would hug you!

Once for each dollar!

NewEnd
10-14-2007, 02:43 PM
We will hit $12 million by Jan 1, but not 4 million by Nov 1.

RP4ME
10-14-2007, 02:47 PM
The truth is teh have stated that it is a MUST it is not just a random goal. Yes its high but they have repeatedly stated it is REQUIRED for him to stay in the game. I hope we do not let ourselves down!!!! I know we CAN do it! Just think in these terms - whatever you gave last time, give that again and recruit enough people to match you donation 3X nd we shoudl be good. If you cant donate as much, make it your goal to recruit enough people who will commit to 3X your last pledge! We will do it then!:D