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bobbyw24
06-21-2010, 05:15 AM
Five governor's races could indicate GOP success in 2012

By Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 21, 2010; A02

The roots of a Republican political renaissance in 2012 lie in the Rust Belt.

That swath of manufacturing- based states in the Midwest -- Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan -- with tentacles that reach as far east as Pennsylvania, has been the epicenter of the economic difficulties in the country over the past few years.

Each state is hosting a competitive gubernatorial race this fall. Republicans argue that a clean sweep (or close to it) would immediately change the electoral calculus heading into the nationwide redistricting in 2011 and President Obama's reelection race in 2012.

"With apologies to the Northeast, South, Mountain West and Left Coast, the industrial Midwest is the measure of success or failure for the Republican Party," said GOP consultant Curt Anderson, who has worked in the region on and off for the past 15 years. "We cannot win a national election without doing well in this region, and we can't be healthy as a party without doing well there."

Ten years ago, Republicans controlled the governorships in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Today they hold none of those seats, after the party suffered an across-the board wipeout due, at least in part, to President George W. Bush's increasing unpopularity as the last decade wore on.

But with a Democrat in the White House and economies in these states flagging badly, Republicans are increasingly optimistic that a sweep, or something close to it, could come to pass.

In Michigan, the declining auto industry and stratospheric unemployment rate (13.6 percent in May) have turned term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm into an unpopular figure and led a number of prominent Democrats to take a pass on the race. Party strategists all- but concede the contest to Republicans.

Pennsylvania is only slightly better for Democrats as, after eight years of Gov. Ed Rendell (D), voters seem ready to follow their historical pattern and install a

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/20/AR2010062003006.html?hpid=topnews