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View Full Version : Determination of the viability of BJ Lawson in 2010




Kludge
06-17-2010, 03:07 PM
I will add to this list and modify as posts come in. I wonīt be maintaining this for very long. This initial post is all IMO only and I wonīt have any objections to having my opinion changed.

Current problems:


BJ is terribly under-funded. In 2008, BJ had over $600k to work with. Right now, he has about $10k of something like $20k he raised (much spent on direct mailing & pocket constitutions by Cato). In retrospect, I considered Ronīs campaign a distraction once it was made clear he didnīt have a chance -- but the enthusiasm his campaign inspired is apparently a catalyst for other liberty candidates. Price currently has ~$300k, with the ability to tap into his growing network of political ops & rich friends for more.
BJ has historically performed poorly, especially among college students. How BJ will correct that problem isnīt yet clear to me.
BJīs in a strongly Democratic district while running as a Republican. BJ does not (yet) appear to be making enough news to sway people from discriminatory voting based on political affiliation.
BJ does not have the enthusiasm of grassroots supporters - certainly not on RPFs.

Current conditions helping BJ


BJ is a libertarian GOP member in a Dem. district and is making some steps toward Compromising with his future constituents. Certain positions as supporting banking regulation are great issues BJ supports.
2008 was a particularly bad year to run as a GOP candidate, esp. when your district is strongly Dem, partially due to UNC voters. People voting Dem just because Obama was running will not be a problem in 2010. Even better -- many of those Obama/Dem first-time-voters have probably left the area. Just because Obama isnīt running this year should benefit BJ.
BJ has experience running a campaign. While he does not appear to have much ability to fund-raise himself (grassroots have arguably dropped the ball here), BJ has almost certainly refined his positions and image, otherwise.


Questionable activities:


BJ needs Democratsī support. Why is he handing out documents with CATOīs brand (something socialists will certainly disapprove of) prominently displayed? How much is being spent on these books and are they really effective?
On BJīs online issues page, it seems to be pandering to libertarian Republicans. Really - we donīt need to be pandered to. Really. I think it would be wise to completely revamp the content of that page, showing what BJ is willing to do to help regulate the free market to the benefit of the majority.

Advice:


Ask for another Ron Paul endorsement, along with an official email to be sent out asking for donations.
Re-do http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/issues to better communicate BJīs liberal side to Democrats for the General Election.
Send more emails, write with more sensationalism. I receive about 10 emails from Trevor Lyman per 1 email from BJ Lawson. Furthermore, BJīs emails donīt inspire. Compare the latest email from BJīs campaign "Vote Out the Chickens" to Randīs "The Mother of All Bailouts." Randīs email is inspiring, uses bold statements and text, and does NOT repeatedly mention his opponent by name as part of an ineffective attack campaign. First two lines from BJīs latest email:

"My opponent, David Price, continues to support bailout after bailout. David Price is told that if he doesn't do these things, the sky will come crashing down."


Pander more toward Dems than GOP members. Price is utterly disgusting to GOP principles, and those so ignorant to not know of BJīs real hard-line libertarianism probably arenīt going to be the enthusiastic base of support BJ will need. Or rather - get out of GOP primary mode and enter GE mode ASAP.


As it is, speaking without poll numbers, I do not believe BJ Lawson is a viable candidate. If you really want to make a difference in politics short-term, I would advise focusing on Rand Paul.

FrostyLeaf
06-17-2010, 03:14 PM
I tried my best to convey some of the above while sitting in that awesome living room. I hope it wasn't 50 minutes of us blowing hot air at one another.

I've lived around here my whole life, he can win here...he just has to change it up...a lot. I tried to give him an idea as to a whole new strategy.

You stole some of my intellectual property from our discussions last night, Kludge. You will hear from my attorney.

evilfunnystuff
06-17-2010, 03:26 PM
[/LIST]
Advice:


Ask for another Ron Paul endorsement, along with an official email to be sent out asking for donations.
Re-do http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/issues to better communicate BJīs liberal side to Democrats for the General Election.
Send more emails, write with more sensationalism. I receive about 10 emails from Trevor Lyman per 1 email from BJ Lawson. Furthermore, BJīs emails donīt inspire. Compare the latest email from BJīs campaign "Vote Out the Chickens" to Randīs "The Mother of All Bailouts." Randīs email is inspiring, uses bold statements and text, and does NOT repeatedly mention his opponent by name as part of an ineffective attack campaign. First two lines from BJīs latest email:

"My opponent, David Price, continues to support bailout after bailout. David Price is told that if he doesn't do these things, the sky will come crashing down."


Pander more toward Dems than GOP members. Price is utterly disgusting to GOP principles, and those so ignorant to not know of BJīs real hard-line libertarianism probably arenīt going to be the enthusiastic base of support BJ will need. Or rather - get out of GOP primary mode and enter GE mode ASAP.



this

Michigan11
06-17-2010, 06:33 PM
An RP endorsement would be a big boost, I think he needs it again. We are seeing liberty candidates win around the country, not only the ones we directly support either.

Lawson needs to just bust a move and come out into his own like Rand. my opinion.

I like the Lawson retirement ad, but not the chicken ad. Lawson can win this no doubt in my mind, let's see it and get it.

MRoCkEd
06-17-2010, 06:38 PM
I agree with every point. BJ is still handing out constitutions? Are you kidding me?

If he wants any chance of winning, he needs to run as a progressive. He can be anti-war and a civil libertarian, but he cannot come out in support of deregulation, abortion criminalization, welfare elimination, entitlement reform, or anything else the average Obamatron would oppose.

RonPaulFanInGA
06-17-2010, 07:23 PM
If only Lawson could have gotten that $600,000 this year instead of in the hopeless 2008 election cycle.

Michigan11
06-17-2010, 08:57 PM
If only Lawson could have gotten that $600,000 this year instead of in the hopeless 2008 election cycle.

Well I think part of it's gotta be we are in the summer months, people are out and enjoying the weather and he got most of that money at the end of his election last time. Things have changed, what it will take to get Lawson his funds is going to depend upon him this time around.

The best we can do is donate and relay any thoughts/messages to him that we want him to win... so get your game on

rancher89
06-17-2010, 11:11 PM
Fundraising, fundraising, fundraising

Many people, including me and my husband, are unemployed here in NC. Statistics vary, I don't think they are counting people like me who have given up for the short term. Latest figures in the Charlotte area were around 12%. This was not the case in '08. This is just a basic fact, BJ needs to find funds from some of the better heeled in the state....he just needs to make sure they know that it is not a down payment, but a "simple" investment in the Constitutional preservation project.....

You may be underestimating the backlash towards the Dems/incumbents this year. It may not take as much to win this time around.

Personally, I thought he did very well in the '08 bloodbath....and he retains much of that support...

I'm not in that district, I am VERY aware of the demographics and the political atmosphere, if you will.

If I had the money, I'd donate, as it is right now, we are hanging on to what we have with our fingernails.....we aren't about to lose the house, but we've gone through a good bit of what we put away for TSHTF.....9anyone want to buy an older RV in good, nay excellent running condition? Needs a little, very little work, to be top notch....It's not pretty, but it works--PM me)

Of those I'd donate to, BJ is on the top of the list, with Gunny right behind, and Jake next. Peter would get the next donation. I have a couple of local people I plan to lend a hand to, but money is not in that equation.

AJ Antimony
06-18-2010, 02:57 PM
The harsh truth is that grass roots national money bombs are reserved for the top 1-2 candidates.

These candidates have been Rand Paul and Peter Schiff. We already gave what, 4 mil total, to their campaigns? The national grass roots simply doesn't have the money to have huge money bombs for every candidate.

The harsh truth is that if we want more than 1 winner in an election season, every candidate somehow HAS to get money locally.

Questions: Shouldn't BJ have donor lists from 08? He should email everyone on the list asking for donations. Further, shouldn't the NC-4 Republican Party have local donor lists? They need to be contacted. Is there a Tea Party in North Carolina? They need to be contacted.

Michigan11
06-19-2010, 07:36 PM
I'm sick 'of it... we the grassroots have more power than we know.

We seek winners and Lawson, Rand and Amash are it. Let's get it done and show the strength.

dr. hfn
06-20-2010, 03:34 PM
i'm sick 'of it... We the grassroots have more power than we know.

We seek winners and lawson, rand and amash are it. Let's get it done and show the strength.

+1776

Cowlesy
06-20-2010, 03:59 PM
I will add to this list and modify as posts come in. I wonīt be maintaining this for very long. This initial post is all IMO only and I wonīt have any objections to having my opinion changed.

Current problems:


BJ is terribly under-funded. In 2008, BJ had over $600k to work with. Right now, he has about $10k of something like $20k he raised (much spent on direct mailing & pocket constitutions by Cato). In retrospect, I considered Ronīs campaign a distraction once it was made clear he didnīt have a chance -- but the enthusiasm his campaign inspired is apparently a catalyst for other liberty candidates. Price currently has ~$300k, with the ability to tap into his growing network of political ops & rich friends for more.
BJ has historically performed poorly, especially among college students. How BJ will correct that problem isnīt yet clear to me.
BJīs in a strongly Democratic district while running as a Republican. BJ does not (yet) appear to be making enough news to sway people from discriminatory voting based on political affiliation.
BJ does not have the enthusiasm of grassroots supporters - certainly not on RPFs.

Current conditions helping BJ


BJ is a libertarian GOP member in a Dem. district and is making some steps toward Compromising with his future constituents. Certain positions as supporting banking regulation are great issues BJ supports.
2008 was a particularly bad year to run as a GOP candidate, esp. when your district is strongly Dem, partially due to UNC voters. People voting Dem just because Obama was running will not be a problem in 2010. Even better -- many of those Obama/Dem first-time-voters have probably left the area. Just because Obama isnīt running this year should benefit BJ.
BJ has experience running a campaign. While he does not appear to have much ability to fund-raise himself (grassroots have arguably dropped the ball here), BJ has almost certainly refined his positions and image, otherwise.


Questionable activities:


BJ needs Democratsī support. Why is he handing out documents with CATOīs brand (something socialists will certainly disapprove of) prominently displayed? How much is being spent on these books and are they really effective?
On BJīs online issues page, it seems to be pandering to libertarian Republicans. Really - we donīt need to be pandered to. Really. I think it would be wise to completely revamp the content of that page, showing what BJ is willing to do to help regulate the free market to the benefit of the majority.

Advice:


Ask for another Ron Paul endorsement, along with an official email to be sent out asking for donations.
Re-do http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/issues to better communicate BJīs liberal side to Democrats for the General Election.
Send more emails, write with more sensationalism. I receive about 10 emails from Trevor Lyman per 1 email from BJ Lawson. Furthermore, BJīs emails donīt inspire. Compare the latest email from BJīs campaign "Vote Out the Chickens" to Randīs "The Mother of All Bailouts." Randīs email is inspiring, uses bold statements and text, and does NOT repeatedly mention his opponent by name as part of an ineffective attack campaign. First two lines from BJīs latest email:

"My opponent, David Price, continues to support bailout after bailout. David Price is told that if he doesn't do these things, the sky will come crashing down."


Pander more toward Dems than GOP members. Price is utterly disgusting to GOP principles, and those so ignorant to not know of BJīs real hard-line libertarianism probably arenīt going to be the enthusiastic base of support BJ will need. Or rather - get out of GOP primary mode and enter GE mode ASAP.


As it is, speaking without poll numbers, I do not believe BJ Lawson is a viable candidate. If you really want to make a difference in politics short-term, I would advise focusing on Rand Paul.

Man sometimes you tele-port in from left field with strong posts.

Kludge
06-21-2010, 12:17 PM
Man sometimes you tele-port in from left field with strong posts.

I only make helpful posts when I'm sexually aroused. Seriously - who's horny right now? - Not me.

GunnyFreedom
06-21-2010, 12:27 PM
I really wish we had paid more attention to the State legislatures from 2009 on. I said it a bunch of times then and I'll say it again, the State houses are probably 4x as important as the US Congress this year..... maybe 10x as important....

And I'm not saying that because I'm running for State House, I'm running for State House because I believe that and am simply putting "my money where my mouth is."

Kludge
06-21-2010, 12:34 PM
I really wish we had paid more attention to the State legislatures from 2009 on. I said it a bunch of times then and I'll say it again, the State houses are probably 4x as important as the US Congress this year..... maybe 10x as important....

And I'm not saying that because I'm running for State House, I'm running for State House because I believe that and am simply putting "my money where my mouth is."

Good point. I'm hypocritical in always talking about local/state elections and then stating people should focus on Rand. Sometimes I still have issues supporting candidates who are out of district (I'm in Lawson's district for just one more week) and am more able to delude myself into claiming out-of-state Congressman are more representative of the nation than their district. I think that's the reason we, as a collective forum, focus on the "federal" candidates most, and why Ron Paul received almost all enthusiasm in 2008.

GunnyFreedom
06-21-2010, 12:57 PM
I look at it this way, Montana passes the Firearms Freedom Act, which does more towards solidifying the principles of 10th Amendment than any act of Congress thus far, and sparks a nationwide movement. It was not the US Congress, but the Montana State legislature that did that.

The US Congress will become more important in future elections, once the States have levied pressure against te Federal Government.

You see, no matter how many of our Liberty congressmen and senators win, they will still be a very small minority with not very much influence at all. Pressure from the State Legislatures will act as a multiplier to increase the influence of our members at the Federal level.

The same minority in the US Congress without pressure from the States will offer arguments that fall on deaf ears, but when you add in pressure from the states, they will actually have real influence on the debate.

Not to mention other issues like how we desperately need to retire Mel Watt, but will be wholly unable to do unless we win a majority int he NC State House (which, by the way, could come down to my one seat. Yes, I am not exaggerating) and fix his district's gerrymander.

Back in late 2008 early 2009 I looked at every iota of data I could come by, and it occurred to me that this year the State Houses were far more critically important than the federal house. Without our people in the State Houses, our allies in the US Congress will not be nearly as effective as they could be. When BJ Lawson wins his CD-4 seat in 2010, if I am not in the State House to fix his gerrymandered district, then he will just lose it in 2012 on account of how the district is drawn.

To my thinking, this is as obvious as obvious gets, but the apathy WRT State Races is palpable.

People wonder what effect my State House race will have on Indiana, and that's a fair question. I have to ask, what effect does Mel Watt (NC CD-12 Congressional killer of "Audit The Fed") have on Indiana? And realize that my winning or losing this race could spell the difference as to whether Mel Watt is vulnerable or invincible come 2012. Some may think I am exaggerating, but I am not. Whether I win or lose in 2010 may well determine whether Mel Watt wins or loses in 2012. I think that has PLENTY of impact on Indiana.

And that's just the icing on the 10th Amendment cake. BJ Lawson, Rand Paul, Ron Paul -- they NEED us in the State Houses to apply pressure in order to enact our agenda. Our presence in the State Houses will give them the leverage they need to do it.

Southron
06-21-2010, 04:03 PM
Personally, I have given up on federal elections.

I don't have any delusions that we can convince a majority of the population towards our viewpoint.

Couple that with limited funds and I think my donations are best saved for state elections.

I think it is much easier to win these local elections, where big money has less influence.

But if I thought by donating the maximum I could get Lawson elected I would do it in a heartbeat.

If I thought donating $4000 dollars to Mr. Bradley would guarantee victory, the check would be in the mail.(well minus previous donation)

It's just such a gamble and money doesn't come easy for us po' folks.

Flash
06-21-2010, 05:48 PM
This is why I was kind of hoping Lawson would run for state house or something.

GunnyFreedom
06-21-2010, 05:57 PM
This is why I was kind of hoping Lawson would run for state house or something.

You can ask him: we went after him relentlessly to do just that. It was based on the fact that he had such a network in place from 2008 that he ended up going for US House again. :D

MozoVote
06-21-2010, 07:05 PM
Unfortunately, I think the 2008 clubbing that BJ took, whisked the wind and the hope out of a lot of donors' sails.

I did make small donations to Peter Schiff and Glen Bradley this year. Fresh races, fresh opportunity. Maybe I would have donated to BJ too, if he was running for a state seat or for city council or something.

K466
06-22-2010, 12:37 PM
Great points, hopefully the campaign considers it. We need BJ to win!

PBrady
06-22-2010, 08:14 PM
Just got back from a town hall in Durham. Went very well, and had a decent turnout considering it was the first that we have put together.

Time permitting, I will have some video up from it within the next couple of days.

Kludge
06-26-2010, 09:44 AM
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/60bdb54e816e0b3bb70092f32/images/masthead1.jpg



Support the Summer Campaign

Dear Asshole,

This past week has been astonishing.

Nothing but bad news is coming out of Washington -- a tenuous economy, no budget from Congress this fall, trillions of dollars in bailouts, and seemingly endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq while we're ceding the US/Mexican border to drug cartels -- these are major problems our country is facing.

It's becoming quite clear to more American's that the system is broken, and we need to get back to what made this country great.

America needs principled, constitutional change.



http://gallery.mailchimp.com/60bdb54e816e0b3bb70092f32/images/Lawson_Email_Graphic_Nick.jpg (http://lawsonforcongress.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=60bdb54e816e0b3bb70092f32&id=599448ffe0&e=f5318be878)


This weekend, our awesome team of volunteers knocked on 1,000 doors to find out what issues are important to voters and invited them to our first town hall. It was a tremendous success. A quick survey of the room confirmed that regardless of party -- everyone is deeply concerned about their jobs, our health care system and the future of our country.

We will be walking neighborhoods throughout the district every week until November, meeting voters and talking issues in our town halls.

As the momentum grows, so will the awareness for the need for a federal government that lives within the Constitution, and effectively lives up to its constitutional responsibilities.

But we need your help. In order to make this campaign successful, we need your financial support. (http://lawsonforcongress.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=60bdb54e816e0b3bb70092f32&id=729455f22b&e=f5318be878)

Can you join us with a contribution today? (http://lawsonforcongress.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=60bdb54e816e0b3bb70092f32&id=9bb11693cb&e=f5318be878)

Thank you for your efforts in defense of liberty.


William (B.J.) Lawson, MD
Congressional Candidate, North Carolina's
4th District

P.S. In addition to contributions, we've just opened our Lawson for Congress Store:

http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/store

Show your support with an attractive coffee mug, T-shirt, magnet, car panel, or even a car wrap!






// Better :)

MRoCkEd
07-04-2010, 09:49 AM
William (B.J.) Lawson Happy Overthrow of Tyrannical Corporatist Government ... Day!

This should play well in his left-wing district

*sigh*

Also, his platform sounds like he's trying to win over republicans/libertarians and not democrats.
"Constitutional Government, Less Taxes, More Freedom"

trey4sports
07-13-2010, 12:32 AM
Dear Asshole,



am i the only one who caught this?

Kludge.......

libertybrewcity
07-16-2010, 11:15 PM
It is hard to faith in candidates in strong dem districts. Even though he won the primary, is he going to take a beating like Kokesh? Even though it is a strong Republican year, he will need probably the same amount if not more to win the general.

What Gunny said about state house elections really makes sense. Imagine if that 600k was split among liberty state house candidates across the nation. HOLY !@#$ !! It would not guarantee victory but it would probably come close.