Public Policy Polling: Run as a Third Party Candidate, Ron

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/obama-up-in-2012-contests.html


One thing that's very interesting about these numbers is that Ron Paul is the most popular out of the whole group with independents. They see him favorably by a 35/25 margin. The only other White House hopeful on positive ground with them is Romney at a +2 spread and they're very negative on the rest: -5 for Huckabee, -16 for Gingrich and Palin, and -17 for Obama. All five of the possible GOP contenders lead Obama with independents, but Paul does so by the widest margin at 46-28.

It has been easy in the past to write Paul off as irrelevant but this anti-politician climate is giving his movement some steam. Paul's going to have an interesting choice in the next year or so. If his goal is really to be President rather than to influence the national dialogue then he should probably keep on trying to win the GOP nomination, as improbable as that might be. But if he wants to guarantee himself a major role in the 2012 contest he should run as a third party candidate instead. Polling at 5-10% nationally in the general election would get his views a much wider airing than just trudging along through the Republican nomination process and hoping to get 10-15% in each primary.

[sailingaway]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=249220

[0zzy]

nope. useless. if you want to educate people spend it on a PAC, don't run 3rd party.

[MRoCkEd]

I agree!

[AJ Antimony]

Yeah! Let's lose in 2012! WOOOOOO

[specsaregood]

Of course PPP wants Dr. Paul to play the 3rd party spoiler and prevent a Republican from beating Obama. They want to kill Dr. Paul's legacy, in much the same way Nader's has been spoiled from the 2000 election. And the hate for Perot from 92.

[RM918]

It is, unfortunately, a terrible idea. Wish it weren't, but it is.

[specsaregood]

It is, unfortunately, a terrible idea. Wish it weren't, but it is.

At the same time, the mere threat of it could be enough to keep the GOP from completely screwing with him/us in the run up to the primaries. Yes? In other words, let us participate and compete fairly for the GOP nomination this next time around.

[sailingaway]

At the same time, the mere threat of it could be enough to keep the GOP from completely screwing with him/us in the run up to the primaries. Yes? In other words, let us participate and compete fairly for the GOP nomination this next time around.

I think that is the only reason they are treating Rand marginally fairly as it is.

[No1ButPaul08]

I wish they would poll Ron as an independent against Obama and the GOP candidates. If he's close to 15% he should run independent. 15% gets you in the debates and we know what Ron would do in a 3-way debate with Obama and the GOP loser of choice.

[Imperial]

If Ron Paul had Perot's funding, I would say he could go for it. However, I don't see a billionaire coming anytime soon.

[MRoCkEd]

I wish they would poll Ron as an independent against Obama and the GOP candidates. If he's close to 15% he should run independent. 15% gets you in the debates and we know what Ron would do in a 3-way debate with Obama and the GOP loser of choice.
We should request that poll for sure!

[libertybrewcity]

ron has said that he is a republican and will stay a republican. his views fit in with old school, soon to be new school republicans and conservatives. if he runs as a third party he would probably lose and take some of his credibility away from the mainstream. He might also be kicked out of the Texas Republican Party and therefore not be able to run as one in his congressional district.

[Sentient Void]

Terrible idea. And it would split the vote. Best thing for Ron to do would be to run republican again. Ron is the best choice for republicans, obviously - especially looking at poll numbers such as this. He is the only one that could unify independents AND republicans against Obama.

If Ron Paul somehow (and he/his ideas are gaining steam) won the republican nomination and ran against Obama - Obama would get SLAUGHTERED. I sincerely believe this.

The majority of americans are disenfranchised with both parties. Democrats and liberals in general have been let down by Obama on a number of fronts and won't be as excited about him this time around compared to last, IMO. Ron Paul obviously has the independent vote vs all the others. So, if he gets the republican nomination, republicans would rally behind him, along with independents, against a less excited group of democrats.

Again, it would be a slaughter. This, mixed with if we get a decent amount of more liberty leaning people in congress / the Senate this november - would bring a very exciting time for America and a move towards prosperity again.

They had their corporatist experiments with Obama and Bush. It would then be time for the liberty 'experiment' (or rather, back to the true foundational principles of america).

[itshappening]

RP should run as an Independent and let Obama win thus allowing Rand Paul to pick up the pieces in 2016 and be crowned the GOP Nominee

[sailingaway]

RP should run as an Independent and let Obama win thus allowing Rand Paul to pick up the pieces in 2016 and be crowned the GOP Nominee

If Ron lets Obama win in 2012 by running independent, how many GOP votes do you think Rand would get in 2016? Other than ours?

[AuH2O]

nope. useless. if you want to educate people spend it on a PAC, don't run 3rd party.

A PAC is a silly way to educate. A 501c3, on the other hand...

[emazur]

He should run as GOP and if he or another pro-liberty guy like Gary Johnson doesn't get the nomination then he should run Libertarian - b/c of his age 2012 will be the last time he'll run. He could say and do whatever the hell he wanted, including trashing the Republican party if they nominated another establishment shill like Romney. Imagine if it was Romney vs. Obama in 2012 and tell me you wouldn't want Ron Paul running on a third party ticket.

[Jordan]

nope. useless. if you want to educate people spend it on a PAC, don't run 3rd party.

That's how I felt.

However, Ron will never, ever, ever win in the GOP. Never. He's anti-war, he's toast.

But if he can pull 15% as an independent, he's in the debates. He can slam both the GOP contender and Obama as being one in the same all day long.

[sailingaway]

That's how I felt.

However, Ron will never, ever, ever win in the GOP. Never. He's anti-war, he's toast.

But if he can pull 15% as an independent, he's in the debates. He can slam both the GOP contender and Obama as being one in the same all day long.

I know, and I'd write him in against Romney and Obama whether he ran or not. But I think he'd think of Rand and Rand's prospects.

I definitely want him to run 3d party and think he WOULD get in the debates. But I also think GOP would mostly vote for the GOP candidate in that case and Rand would pay for it if Obama won.

[libertybrewcity]

imagine an obama vs ron paul debate. obama would get owned. ron has so much against him it would just be a joke. i could see 10 percentage swing towards paul in one night. i bet obama would deny even 1 debate because he know he couldn't handle the incredible truth of paul

[RM918]

They'd never let Paul ACTUALLY debate Obama. I can't see it happening.

[Ninja Homer]

Ron Paul is winning republican straw polls, so he should run 3rd party? Yeah, sounds like a winning plan. :rolleyes:

If it becomes clear that Ron Paul won't take the Republican nomination, then is the time to entertain the idea of a 3rd party run. As of now, Ron Paul is the man to beat, the frontrunner, and his popularity is only going to increase in the next couple years.

[KramerDSP]

Ron Paul is winning republican straw polls, so he should run 3rd party? Yeah, sounds like a winning plan. :rolleyes:

If it becomes clear that Ron Paul won't take the Republican nomination, then is the time to entertain the idea of a 3rd party run. As of now, Ron Paul is the man to beat, the frontrunner, and his popularity is only going to increase in the next couple years.

Now THIS is the mentality we need to convey to everyone around us. Quiet confidence and an insistence that RP is the frontrunner, because only he can unite the Independents, most of the GOP, and the anti-war/torture Left. Count me in with those who would love to see a debate happen between Paul and Obama.

[Flash]

What if Ron Paul wins the nomination and the press goes after him for the newsletters, his position on the Civil War, position for the civil rights act of 1964, etc... Look at the shit-storm that erupted in KY with Rand, I could only imagine what that would be like on a national level.

[sailingaway]

What if Ron Paul wins the nomination and the press goes after him for the newsletters, his position on the Civil War, position for the civil rights act of 1964, etc... Look at the shit-storm that erupted in KY with Rand, I could only imagine what that would be like on a national level.

Then we point out it is bullshit and the people can decide. They are either fed up with being manipulated by manufactured nonsense, or they aren't.

[Slutter McGee]

Seriously, the advice given was realistic. Does Ron have a shot at winning. Sure he does. But if it becomes obvious he doesnt, a well funded independent run might give him a shot at getting in general election debates.

I am not saying he shouldn't run as a Republican. I am not agreeing even. I don't think third party is the solution. I don't think it can work. But what was said isn't unreasonable.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[libertybrewcity]

then we go after obama for the hundreds of things he has done wrong. ron paul can explain himself a lot better then rand can due to his experience.

[libertybrewcity]

i don't even know why ppp would say ron should run as a 3rd party. some mentioned above his straw poll wins? He clearly has a large base of supporters willing to fund him. he has become mainstream and his message is growing. wth is wrong with those dudes over at ppp?

[Slutter McGee]

i don't even know why ppp would say ron should run as a 3rd party. some mentioned above his straw poll wins? He clearly has a large base of supporters willing to fund him. he has become mainstream and his message is growing. wth is wrong with those dudes over at ppp?

You are right. But lets not delude ourselves because of a few straw poll like we did a few years ago. Still have a long long way to go.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[ChaosControl]

What this tells me is that if he won the nomination, he'd win the election.

[JamesButabi]

Alot of seeds were planted in 2008. This is freedom and liberty's time to grab at the masses.

[Teaser Rate]

The problem with a third party run is that a large majority of voting base is very polarized along party lines is going to be willing to vote for the lesser of two evils, perhaps more than ever.

It’s going to be nearly impossible to convince Republicans who believe that Obama is an illegal immigrant communist to bypass taking the best chance to take him out because their nominee isn’t perfect, and the same thing goes for Democrats who believe Palin or Romney are going to bring in the 2012 apocalypse in they are elected.

The 2012 election is going to be a referendum on Obama’s presidency and the of the handicap of the lesser two evils is going to damage 3rd parties more than usual IMO.

[silentshout]

Well, if Ron Paul won't run as an independent, I think Gary Johnson should. Maybe in 2016, but honestly, I really don't like either of the two parties.

[sailingaway]

i don't even know why ppp would say ron should run as a 3rd party. some mentioned above his straw poll wins? He clearly has a large base of supporters willing to fund him. he has become mainstream and his message is growing. wth is wrong with those dudes over at ppp?

They say right up front they are a DEMOCRATIC polling company. They root for a side.

[Corto_Maltese]

Gerald Celente predicts a strong 3rd party for the 2012 election. Lets hope he is right and that party has Ron Paul or anotehr freedom fighter as their candidate.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

I'm not sure that it's a good idea for RP to run third party/independent, but I disagree with the assertion a few have made in this thread about Perot being hated. Perot received about 20% and 10% in 1992 and 1996 respectively, and never came close to the borderline psychotic demonization Nader experienced in 2000 and 2004.

It's really remarkable that Nader never topped 3% during any of his many runs and he has attracted a huge amount of rabid scorn from the left. I give the GOP a bit of credit for not responding like lunatics to any third party candidates, even ones like Perot who some Republicans believe "spoiled" their guy. I think the Dems' response to Nader says more about the control freak tendencies of the left than it does about third party candidates.

[rich34]

What if Ron Paul wins the nomination and the press goes after him for the newsletters, his position on the Civil War, position for the civil rights act of 1964, etc... Look at the shit-storm that erupted in KY with Rand, I could only imagine what that would be like on a national level.

Difference there is Ron don't back down from that shit! Ron would stick to his guns and if they attacked him in a nationally televised debate they'd be doing themselves harm because of the logic that would come out of the man's mouth. Notice the MSM didn't take the civil rights shit to daddy Paul because they know intellectially Ron would pawn their sorry asses!

[rich34]

I'm not sure that it's a good idea for RP to run third party/independent, but I disagree with the assertion a few have made in this thread about Perot being hated. Perot received about 20% and 10% in 1992 and 1996 respectively, and never came close to the borderline psychotic demonization Nader experienced in 2000 and 2004.

It's really remarkable that Nader never topped 3% during any of his many runs and he has attracted a huge amount of rabid scorn from the left. I give the GOP a bit of credit for not responding like lunatics to any third party candidates, even ones like Perot who some Republicans believe "spoiled" their guy. I think the Dems' response to Nader says more about the control freak tendencies of the left than it does about third party candidates.

Imo Bush Sr. wanted Perot to run...

[AJ Antimony]

I wish they would poll Ron as an independent against Obama and the GOP candidates. If he's close to 15% he should run independent. 15% gets you in the debates and we know what Ron would do in a 3-way debate with Obama and the GOP loser of choice.

Try thinking this through. Only then will you realize how stupid an idea it is to run as a third party.

[AJ Antimony]

Jesus Christ, too many of you are obsessed with losing (running as third party). Why don't you give winning a shot?

And again, what just drives me nuts is that the dolts saying 'run third party' are the people that have been on these boards the longest. You'd think after 3 years these people would have learned SOMETHING about how politics works. But no, they cling to their dumbfounded fantasy that it's possible for a third party candidate to win even though ALL the evidence shows if you want to lose, you run third party.

Please take your fantasies and egos elsewhere. Wake up to reality. The reality is that when Ron Paul did what you asked and ran third party in 1988 nothing happened. Nobody remembers the Libertarian candidate from 1988. He didn't win, he didn't get in debates, he failed miserably. It was only in 2008 when he ran as a Republican that he actually had success by growing a movement, participating in debates, raising serious money, and opening a door for future freedom candidates *cough* Rand *cough.*

History lesson over.

Please wake up to realty for the sake of the people here that actually want to win. If you can't stop fantasizing over the idea of losing, please leave so that you don't drag the rest of us with you.

[AJ Antimony]

There is a movement in this country, and people are sick and tired of same old same old, if Ron is seen as different he can poll Perot numbers, certainly enough to become president, however if you want him to run in the GOP primary kick some debate ass and only make the people he already converted happier then we can do that, but Ron is never going to win the GOP nomination, but he can certainly win the hearts of the American independents.

Show me the numbers! Yeah we get it, the third party fantasy is that Ron Paul currently would get 15% of the vote if the election were today, and that he's going to magically climb up to 60% and beat everyone and win and everyone will shit daises.

IT'S NEVER HAPPENED.
IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

Show me your evidence! Show me your numbers!

If you believe LOSING is the best way to go, then prove it!

[No1ButPaul08]

If Ron is polling 10-15% he should definitely run as an Independent, imagine the GOP giving him the VP slot to drop his bid... he would have so much leverage.

No presidential candidate would ever be stupid enough to have Ron as his VP.

[sofia]

Ron Paul will NEVER win a GOP race. (Unless he comes out for nuking innocent women and children in Iran)

Best strategy is to run, gets tons of national publicity, and get 20%

.....then go third party against Obama / Romney

[AJ Antimony]

Ron Paul will NEVER win a GOP race. (Unless he comes out for nuking innocent women and children in Iran)

Best strategy is to run, gets tons of national publicity, and get 20%

.....then go third party against Obama / Romney

http://www.mediawhorenetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Imaginationland.jpg

[MikeStanart]

Ron Paul will NEVER win a GOP race. (Unless he comes out for nuking innocent women and children in Iran)

Best strategy is to run, gets tons of national publicity, and get 20%

.....then go third party against Obama / Romney

Yes, and then the Liberty movement will be forever painted as "The movement that made Republicans lose the Whitehouse." Good thinking.

[Sentient Void]

Not to mention he'd lose his congressman seat.

[freshjiva]

Ron Paul should run as a Republican. End of story. If he loses in the Primary, then we can begin talking about an independent run.

Instead of worrying about party affiliation, why don't we all unite and throw a moneybomb to shatter all records! Send a message to the nation that Ron Paul is a serious Republican contender.

Come on, people! $10 million in one day. That's 250,000 people giving $40. That is very much possible. Book it!

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Yes, and then the Liberty movement will be forever painted as "The movement that made Republicans lose the Whitehouse." Good thinking.

"The ones to thank for the second Obama term."

Whatever Ron Paul does, I just hope he picks something and sticks with it. Not run as a Republican, all the while wasting everyones' time and money knowing full-well he'll drop out and run third party, and then switch. If Ron Paul runs, he should announce in very early 2011 that he is running as a Republican or as an independent and stick with it. Don't be a Lieberman/Crist, it just makes somebody look power-hungry.

All this is speculation. Ron Paul might be a big believer in the "you get two shots at the presidency" adage for all anyone knows.