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View Full Version : Did Rand Really Lose 19 Points In 7 Days?




anaconda
05-30-2010, 04:19 PM
Rasmussen Poll released May 20 had Rand up 25 points with 3% undecided.

Courier-Journal Poll conducted May 25-27 has Rand up 6 points with 4% undecided.

What gives? Did the "controversies" hurt him this much? Or, are there problems with these polls?

I suppose it would be enlightening to see a new Rasmussen poll ASAP.

BamaFanNKy
05-30-2010, 04:20 PM
Someone copy and paste the response about not comparing polls. Bottom Line: No, he didn't drop that much considering polls prior results.

dr. hfn
05-30-2010, 04:25 PM
also factor in the post-victory high, right?

lordindra3
05-30-2010, 04:26 PM
Nope, you have to take this with a grain of salt. The polls are consistent with the same companies previous polls, but not consistent with reality.

Daily Kos- up 3 points at primary, then up 3 points recently. They had Rand only beating Grayson by 10 pnts, but Paul won by 25pnts in reality.

Rasmussen had Rand up in primary 23 pnts, but Rand won 25. Rass had Rand beating Conway only 3 points before primary but beating him 25 after primary. (Rasmussen is the most accurate by the way historically)

SurveyUSA had Rand up only 12 points before primary, but up 25 in reality. They have Rand up 6 points now WITH a pushpoll (yes, yes "technically" this is not a push poll, but its still not the best way to get an unbiased opinion and if Rand is still winning after mentioning controversy BY A NEWSPAPER THAT VERBALLY AND ADMITTINGLY DOESNT LIKE RAND PAUL, its obvious Rand is up by more, silly!), so in reality, Rand is up between 12 and 25pnt.s

Are any of you guys seeing the connection here???

Flash
05-30-2010, 04:28 PM
You can't compare two different polls. We didn't do that in the primary, we shouldn't start now. If you remember Daily Kos was showing Rand leading Grayson by a mere 8 points leading up to the primary, while PPPoll said 16 points.

South Park Fan
05-30-2010, 04:29 PM
Once again, you must compare it to what the last poll by the same company had, not to what the last poll had.

anaconda
05-30-2010, 04:30 PM
Nope, you have to take this with a grain of salt. The polls are consistent with the same companies previous polls, but not consistent with reality.

Daily Kos- up 3 points at primary, then up 3 points recently. They had Rand only beating Grayson by 10 pnts, but Paul won by 25pnts in reality.

Rasmussen had Rand up in primary 23 pnts, but Rand won 25. Rass had Rand beating Conway only 3 points before primary but beating him 25 after primary. (Rasmussen is the most accurate by the way historically)

SurveyUSA had Rand up only 12 points before primary, but up 25 in reality. They have Rand up 6 points now WITH a pushpoll (yes, yes "technically" this is not a push poll, but its still not the best way to get an unbiased opinion and if Rand is still winning after mentioning controversy BY A NEWSPAPER THAT VERBALLY AND ADMITTINGLY DOESNT LIKE RAND PAUL, its obvious Rand is up by more, silly!), so in reality, Rand is up between 12 and 25pnt.s

Are any of you guys seeing the connection here???

I can live with 12 to 25. Thanks for your thoughts. I think that, overall, the controversies may give Rand a slight bump. It expanded his name recognition dramatically and I think that will help in the long run, as people take a closer look and associate him with taking big government to task.

Epic
05-30-2010, 04:38 PM
Rasmussen had Rand up in primary 23 pnts, but Rand won 25.


1. Rassmussen didn't poll the primary

2. Rand won primary by 23, not 25.

libertybrewcity
05-30-2010, 04:49 PM
http://www.pollster.com/polls/ky/10-ky-sen-ge-pvc.php

All polls since August 2009

Pollster Dates N/Pop Paul Conway Undecided Margin
DailyKos.com/Research 2000 5/24-26/10 600 LV 44 41 15 +3R
Rasmussen 5/19/10 500 LV 59 34 3 +25R
PPP (D) 5/1-2/10 946 LV 41 40 19 +1R
Rasmussen 4/28/10 500 LV 47 38 10 +9R
Rasmussen 3/31/10 500 LV 50 36 11 +14R
DailyKos.com/Research 2000 3/15-17/10 600 LV 45 39 16 +6R
Rasmussen 3/2/10 500 LV 49 34 13 +15R
Rasmussen 2/2/10 500 LV 47 39 11 +8R
Rasmussen 1/6/10 500 LV 46 38 12 +8R
PPP (D) 12/18-21/09 1199 LV 36 42 22 +6D
SurveyUSA 10/30-11/2/09 1770 RV 39 44 17 +5D
Rasmussen 9/30/09 500 LV 38 42 15 +4D
DailyKos.com/Research 2000 8/31-9/2/09 600 LV 37 41 22 +4D
SurveyUSA 8/15-17/09 1944 RV 38 43 19 +5D

GoatsGoneWild
05-30-2010, 05:16 PM
No, he did not lose 19 points.

Rasmussen polled likely voters while the Courier polled registered voters.

You can't say he lost 19 points until another Rasmussen poll comes out and shows he lost 19 points.

anaconda
05-30-2010, 06:38 PM
2. Rand won primary by 23, not 25.

Specifically, Rand won 58.8 to 35.4, a spread of 23.4.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010

specsaregood
05-30-2010, 07:06 PM
Daily Kos- up 3 points at primary, then up 3 points recently. They had Rand only beating Grayson by 10 pnts, but Paul won by 25pnts in reality.

SurveyUSA had Rand up only 12 points before primary, but up 25 in reality.

Are any of you guys seeing the connection here???

What I'm seeing here is that obviously the Rand campaign had an absolutely stellar GOTV apparatus in place that added an extra 10+pts turnout in his favor. (or just Rand's supporters were more driven)

I really hope the campaign doesn't just turn over the GOTV role to the GOP for the general election.....:(

Fozz
05-30-2010, 11:49 PM
What gives? Did the "controversies" hurt him this much?

Yes.

Agorism
05-30-2010, 11:53 PM
Rand's number have improved since the last SurveyUSA poll.

Fozz
05-31-2010, 12:04 AM
Rand's number have improved since the last SurveyUSA poll.

You mean the one seven months ago?

Agorism
05-31-2010, 12:12 AM
The last poll that SurveyUSA did before Jack Conway won the dem primary, which should have given him a bump.

It didn't though.