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View Full Version : VA 5th Congressional District - GOP Primary Debate TONIGHT (5/25/10)




malkusm
05-25-2010, 04:37 AM
Live stream is available from the front page here:

http://www.vote-america.org/

Mike McPadden is the constitutional conservative in the race:

http://mcpaddenforcongress.com/

Nathan Hale
05-25-2010, 06:57 AM
Any recent polling in VA5? I'm still working off of a February poll that put McPadden down in the 2nd tier.

i.e. are we actually going to hear from McPadden tonight, or will he get less speaking time than Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter in the 2007 Presidential debates?

malkusm
05-25-2010, 03:01 PM
Any recent polling in VA5? I'm still working off of a February poll that put McPadden down in the 2nd tier.

i.e. are we actually going to hear from McPadden tonight, or will he get less speaking time than Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter in the 2007 Presidential debates?

This poll was released yesterday: http://virginiafifthwatchdog.com/2010/05/breaking-poll-pulse-opinion-research-co-rasmussen-reports/

Speaking with people around the district, most of that 25% that Hurt has is based on name recognition alone. His name recognition is up above 80%, but he has such high unfavorables that he's only getting 25% right now - he doesn't have a lot more room for improvement.

Meanwhile, the tea party has been fractured since the beginning of the race, just from the sheer number of candidates. The bottom 3 candidates should have dropped out long ago, have never had any consistent supporters, have not won any straw polls or debates (McPadden won the first debate Straw Poll in Charlottesville), and have no money with which to run a campaign. It would be really helpful to see these candidates drop off and endorse one of the other candidates, but it seems to be unlikely at this point.

I can tell you that, as low as that 5% number looks from outside the district right now, the McPadden campaign and people here in the district are optimistic. McPadden just got 2,500 yard signs on Friday and already the district is loaded with signs at every intersection and exit ramp around. Hurt won't be at the debate tonight, meaning McPadden and the others will be given ample time to speak. I'd be willing to bet that McPadden's name recognition goes up from the ~50% it's currently at to about 70-75% in the next two weeks....at which point I think he's in the ballpark, given the 48% "Undecided" number.

Really the big problem with this district is that it's huge (bigger than New Jersey), yet there is no central media market. The north and east is served by Richmond, the south is served by Raleigh, NC, and the west is served by Roanoke. It's hard to put a dent into name recognition via advertising - much more effective to signbomb, direct mail, and talk to voters directly, which McPadden is doing. :)

malkusm
05-25-2010, 04:15 PM
Bump - 45 minutes until the debate :)

MRoCkEd
05-25-2010, 05:14 PM
Watch now!

http://media.liberty.edu/player/?url=http://liberty.edgeboss.net/wmedia-live/liberty/20182/400_liberty-cn1771_070421.asx

Nathan Hale
05-25-2010, 08:22 PM
This poll was released yesterday: http://virginiafifthwatchdog.com/2010/05/breaking-poll-pulse-opinion-research-co-rasmussen-reports/

Speaking with people around the district, most of that 25% that Hurt has is based on name recognition alone. His name recognition is up above 80%, but he has such high unfavorables that he's only getting 25% right now - he doesn't have a lot more room for improvement.

Meanwhile, the tea party has been fractured since the beginning of the race, just from the sheer number of candidates. The bottom 3 candidates should have dropped out long ago, have never had any consistent supporters, have not won any straw polls or debates (McPadden won the first debate Straw Poll in Charlottesville), and have no money with which to run a campaign. It would be really helpful to see these candidates drop off and endorse one of the other candidates, but it seems to be unlikely at this point.

I can tell you that, as low as that 5% number looks from outside the district right now, the McPadden campaign and people here in the district are optimistic. McPadden just got 2,500 yard signs on Friday and already the district is loaded with signs at every intersection and exit ramp around. Hurt won't be at the debate tonight, meaning McPadden and the others will be given ample time to speak. I'd be willing to bet that McPadden's name recognition goes up from the ~50% it's currently at to about 70-75% in the next two weeks....at which point I think he's in the ballpark, given the 48% "Undecided" number.

Really the big problem with this district is that it's huge (bigger than New Jersey), yet there is no central media market. The north and east is served by Richmond, the south is served by Raleigh, NC, and the west is served by Roanoke. It's hard to put a dent into name recognition via advertising - much more effective to signbomb, direct mail, and talk to voters directly, which McPadden is doing. :)

Under these circumstances, a debate could have significant impact. I hope that McPadden, since he's polling in the top three, will be afforded significant coverage in the debate. I hope he gets a lot of speaking time. It will certainly offer him the opportunity to define the race as him vs Hurt.

Nathan Hale
05-27-2010, 11:04 AM
Live stream is available from the front page here:

http://www.vote-america.org/

Mike McPadden is the constitutional conservative in the race:

http://mcpaddenforcongress.com/

I don't really have time to watch this debate. How'd he do? Did he get a decent amount of speaking time? Did he stand out from the pack?

malkusm
05-27-2010, 06:11 PM
I don't really have time to watch this debate. How'd he do? Did he get a decent amount of speaking time? Did he stand out from the pack?

Generally, most of the candidates blended in. They gave each of the 6 candidates equal speaking time (Hurt, the presumed frontrunner, was not there....how convenient!)...I really wish the bottom 3 candidates would drop out, as they are pretty much wasting everyone's time at this point.

Mike did stand out on a question about a local program that has been implemented to catch online child predators and place them in a database, and whether or not the candidates would support making the program a federal program. All of the candidates said they would - except for Mike, who went next to last. He had a great quote that went something like "Folks, this is why we're in this financial mess. There are 10,000 good ideas for government programs. We need to make the tough decisions and saying no and cutting these programs. This should be handled at the local level."

Also, on a question about Iran, Mike was the only candidate not to pledge our unwavering support to Israel or to actively promote a pre-emptive first strike (he stated that if we knew details about specific weapons facilities that would threaten our national security, that we should declare war Constitutionally and strike those specific targets and be done with it....which wasn't a perfect answer, and he pandered/moderated his message a bit, but a hell of a lot better answer than any other candidate gave).

He ended up finishing second in the straw poll, receiving 31.2%, and just 7 votes behind Jim McKelvey.