Sabato's prediction for KY

[cindy25]

Kentucky: Just wild, and one of our favorites. Secretary of State Trey Grayson was the establishment GOP choice and was backed strongly by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Tuesday’s primary. But former presidential candidate Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, a self-described Tea Party candidate, won the Republican Senate nod in an overwhelming landslide. McConnell had helped to ease out GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who would have lost in November. Yet now he is stuck with a party nominee who dislikes him and won’t even commit to reelecting a fellow Kentuckian to his Senate post. Paul has some very un-Republican views on foreign policy and drugs–or at least he once did–and the fall election is going to be as dirty as any in the nation this year. Meanwhile, the Democrats narrowly chose Attorney General Jack Conway over Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo to carry their Senate colors. Conway was considered by Democratic insiders to be the stronger politician, but he’s got his work cut out for him in this 57% McCain state where Obama’s policies are not popular. Our sense is that Paul is the favorite and likely to win the seat, but he’s also fully capable of throwing it away with controversial statements and an undisciplined, divisive campaign. We’ll see. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.

[TCE]

He posted a Tweet stating that this CRA deal is exactly what he was talking about as one of the ways Rand can blow this. It is likely a Toss-Up now.

[daviddee]

...

[TCE]

"Every now & then I see a candidate who'd be more secure electorally if he'd be convinced to spend campaign season in Bermuda. Yep, you, Rand (Paul)" http://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/14454263922

"I've been saying for weeks that it was 50-50 whether Rand Paul would win by a mile in Nov. or blow the election. More evidence last night (on the Rachel Maddow Show)." http://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/14375460957

[7_digitz]

honestly dr. paul has a lot of good ideas, but i think it could get ugly for him. ky is a conservative state, but there's been a huge spike in democratic registration over the last 5 or so years. the last number seen was something like 57% of the state are registered dems(in 2008) and that number is growing. dr paul had a very impressive victory in the primaries, so impressive that he set a record for votes in a ky republican primary. that means he's gotten more vote in ky gop primary than mitch could've dreamed of. problem is the top 2 dems got more votes in their primary. bill clinton won ky twice, easily. the reason why i point that out is because in the democratic presidential primaries hillary won with something close to 70% of the vote. here's the thing according to various polls including the exit polls, race(barack's skin color to be specific) played roll in how people voted. Conway's white. the governor is a dem and the mayor of louisville is a dem. lexington's mayor started out a conservative now he governs as a moderate and in an election year he may move further to left on domestic issues. before him their was another dem. what i'm pointing out for dr. paul's supporters that aren't from ky is that regardless of the national perception by no means is this a lock for him and he could find himself in landslide territory if he steps in anymore traps.

[7_digitz]

2010 kentucky primaries for jim bunnings senate seat.

democrats:
jack conway 228,531
daniel mongiardo 224,989
darlene price 28,543
james buckmaster 20,539
maurice sweeney 17,810

republicans:
rand paul 206,812
trey grayson 124,710
bill johnson 7,855
john stephenson 6,885
gurley martin 2,852
jon scrbner 2,813

99% reported votes counted

[cindy25]

I don't see this as a big deal; white Republicans , even white Democrats , care nothing about the CRA. It might even gain him some votes. This is KENTUCKY, not NY City.

Rand is vulnerable if he takes a shot at FDR's Ponzi scheme, but not this

[Trigonx]

2010 kentucky primaries for jim bunnings senate seat.

democrats:
jack conway 228,531
daniel mongiardo 224,989
darlene price 28,543
james buckmaster 20,539
maurice sweeney 17,810

republicans:
rand paul 206,812
trey grayson 124,710
bill johnson 7,855
john stephenson 6,885
gurley martin 2,852
jon scrbner 2,813

99% reported votes counted


Rand Paul got the most votes any Republican in a Senate primary in Kentucky has ever had. I read it about 50 times explaining why there are more "Democrats" than "Republicans" in Kentucky, and its simple, CLOSED PRIMARY. If you look at General elections, Kentucky leans Republican. Hence why they have two Republican Senators and 4 out of 6 Republican House members. And if what i also read on here correctly, Mongiardo was the Pro-Life candidate for the Dems and Conway was the Pro-choice, Rand Paul wins over the single issue voters for that right there.

[0zzy]

I don't see this as a big deal; white Republicans , even white Democrats , care nothing about the CRA. It might even gain him some votes. This is KENTUCKY, not NY City.

Rand is vulnerable if he takes a shot at FDR's Ponzi scheme, but not this

I don't like such defenses. I still worry. KY doesn't mean anything, they are mostly Americans who will get out and vote and be influenced by none other than the media.

the media helped him in the primary. you should of saw why most of them voted for Paul. I don't think they knew much about him other than what they heard on TV. now they hear this.

[7_digitz]

i'm born and raised in ky. i'm seeing this go on with my on eyes. bill clinton was pro-choice. the current governor is pro-choice and pro-gamgling

[cindy25]

Rand can hit Conway on abortion, affirmative action, bailouts, healthcare.

[7_digitz]

ky supports healthcare...............until you attach barack's name to it. if you're from ky you know once dr. paul's position on social security and medicare become public that'll stand over any of the "moral issues." if affirmative action is an issue in ky thats news to me. conway wasn't cogress during the bailout. all he has to say is that he doesn't support it. ben chandler(house of reps, dem) voted against bush's and obamas. mitch(we all know who) voted for bush's, but decided to become a conservative again for barack's.

[Odin]

My guess is that in Kentucky you are in bigger trouble if you say you support the Health Care act than if you say you are against 1/10 of the Civil Rights Act.