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MRoCkEd
05-11-2010, 10:02 AM
http://www.bluegrassbulletin.com/2010/05/grayson-to-benefit-from-last-minute-tightening.html


EDITORIAL:

New poll results in the Kentucky Senate primaries will likely be out in a day or so. If they deserve any credibility at all, then they should show the race between Trey Grayson and Rand Paul tightening. Most races do and this one should be no exception as thoughtful republicans transition from observers to voters.

Campaigns spend millions of dollars essentially entertaining and informing people who watch them passively much like they watch television. But in the last few days before an election, people who intend to vote begin to form opinions and make decisions which they will exercise in the polling place. In primary elections voters begin to examine their priorities, their party loyalties and their comfort level. These things favor Grayson.

Yes there is much discontent within the general public, but how much of that exists in hard core primary voters remains to be seen. Many republicans loyal to their party leaders will be influenced by the endorsement Grayson received from Mitch McConnell. Many in the republican rich 5th Congressional district will be influenced by the endorsement Grayson received from Congressman Hal Rogers. And many in Northern Kentucky will be influenced by Grayson's appeal to keep the seat in that region. Will these things be enough to give Grayson a victory? That all depends on who shows up to vote.

It is not always the best message, or the best candidate that wins. More often than not, it is the organization best able to bring its voters into the polls that wins. As the Obama/Acorn alliance has demonstrated, it's not about winning the hearts of every voter, its all about getting votes cast.

Grayson has touted his ability to use the much celebrated "72 hour" program in Northern Kentucky to win those counties. But that program technically belongs to the Republican Party Of Kentucky and as such any attempt by Grayson to use it against a fellow republican in a primary should be met with sound criticism. Moreover, though, that program was designed to identify and motivate likely "republican voters" for a general election in November. Since all voters in a GOP primary are in fact "republican voters" the premise of the program clearly establishes that it won't work in a primary.

On the other hand Grayson should have already worked his Northern Kentucky voters over pretty good by now and should be able to count on a majority in at least two of the three counties. Not only does he benefit from his "local boy" identity, but so far he has also been able to count many of the local party leaders as being on his side which means he should benefit from the loyalty of their constituencies.

The big unknowns are how Grayson and Paul will do in the rest of Geoff Davis' district. For Paul to offset even a 4 point advantage for Grayson in Kenton and Boone Counties he will have to dominate elsewhere in the district.

Grayson is also counting on Hal Rogers bringing home the bacon for him in Kentucky's 5th district. No doubt Rogers is wildly popular there and has the ability to deliver votes, but the question really boils down to how strong is his endorsement? Rogers didn't become successful by being stupid. He knows enough about politics to endorse McConnell's pick, but also knows that he will have to work with who ever wins. Like McConnell, Rogers has no doubt calculated how he can position himself to be standing in support of the eventual winner. Odds are the endorsement Grayson received from Hal is about as good as it gets. Don't look for Congressman Rogers to single handedly charge a machine gun nest on Trey's behalf.

In the end the race will be won and lost on the get out the vote effort of each candidate. They've pretty much said all they can say about the issues, their vision for the future and about each other.

If only the party faithful and Lincoln dinner crowd show up to vote, Trey has a chance. If fiscal conservatives, including the TEA party folks and those who want new blood for the party and for the nation show up, Paul will win.

But since Independents and discerning democrats are not permitted to vote in Kentucky's Republican Primary, Paul shouldn't rely too much on polls that show him with widespread popularity to fool him into treating next week's primary like a November election. Much of Paul's support will have to wait, and hope he survives May, in order for them to play a role in making him our next Senator this fall.

If either candidate is not spending every minute between now and next Tuesday to set in motion a plan to make certain that the highest percentage possible of his likely voters actually go and cast a ballot, then they've wasted millions of dollars and dashed the hopes of their family and supporters as a result.

This week is where the rubber meets the road. One candidate is hoping to gain traction, the other hoping not to lose traction as they now focus on driving their voters to the polls.


Contact nena@randpaul2010.com now and ask how you can help!

sailingaway
05-11-2010, 10:35 AM
I agree. I did email her, and will be working phones.

Strangers called "we the people" won't ride in on white horses to do all the work for us, this is our job.

FSP-Rebel
05-11-2010, 11:11 AM
Phone banking is what it will take to win the primary at this point. I implore all Kentucky Rand supporters to spend a few hours this weekend making calls at their local campaign hq. This is the exact reason Scott Brown was able to bring all his people out of the woodwork back in January.

Matt Collins
05-11-2010, 11:22 AM
"The 72 hours program" means 5 impressions of one's name/slogan within 72 hours.

rich34
05-11-2010, 11:25 AM
What exactly can out of staters do to help ensure victory? My nerves will be wrecked until next Tuesday night..

sailingaway
05-11-2010, 11:43 AM
What exactly can out of staters do to help ensure victory? My nerves will be wrecked until next Tuesday night..

You can make calls from out of state. I am out of state, and I am doing it. Look at the end of the initial post for nena's email, and volunteer.

Matt Collins
05-11-2010, 11:43 AM
What exactly can out of staters do to help ensure victory? My nerves will be wrecked until next Tuesday night..
1- Send money.
2- Call Nena and find out

:):):)

MRoCkEd
05-11-2010, 11:47 AM
Rich, if you make calls, be excessively nice. :p

rprprs
05-11-2010, 11:47 AM
Does anyone know definitively if and when a new poll is due to come out?
(I'm not looking forward to it.)

MRoCkEd
05-11-2010, 11:48 AM
Does anyone know definitively if and when a new poll is due to come out?
(I'm not looking forward to it.)
I heard tomorrow or Thursday.

Brett85
05-11-2010, 12:09 PM
Does anyone know definitively if and when a new poll is due to come out?
(I'm not looking forward to it.)

I don't understand why everyone is always so pessimistic. Rand has been ahead by double digits for over three months, and he's not going to lose a double digit lead in one week.

angelatc
05-11-2010, 12:16 PM
I don't understand why everyone is always so pessimistic. Rand has been ahead by double digits for over three months, and he's not going to lose a double digit lead in one week.

I guess you didn't see the Indiana race. Stutzman jumped 15 points from the last poll to election day.