Lawson wins!!!!

[catdd]

United States House GOP 4th District

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/elections/local/results?g=usHouse

[Fozz]

That's great. And he faces the same Democrat opponent in the general who beat him 63-36% in 2008.

Sure, this is a better year, but it will certainly take a lot of work to get him even close to winning.

[RonPaulCult]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JoshLowry]

Way to go!


That's great. And he faces the same Democrat opponent in the general who beat him 63-36% in 2008.


Everyone was voting against 8 years of neocons in 2008. People were lining up to vote for ANY democrat.

This is going to be completely different.

[Fozz]

Way to go!
Everyone was voting against 8 years of neocons in 2008. People were lining up to vote for ANY democrat.

This is going to be completely different.

That's a good point, but the margin of victory just looked ominous to me. And this district includes urban areas that probably vote Democrat no matter what.

David Price has held this seat since 1987, with the exception of the two years after 1994.

[catdd]

He took Wake and Durham.

[sofia]

That's great. And he faces the same Democrat opponent in the general who beat him 63-36% in 2008.

Sure, this is a better year, but it will certainly take a lot of work to get him even close to winning.

2008 was the year of Obama's coat-tails.


Blacks wont turn out this year...and many Indy's will abandon Obama...(just like the anti-Clinton surge of 1994)

The key will be TURNOUT.

This is still a tough one.......but not impossible. However, when Barry runs again in 2012, the black vote will likely return to boot Lawson out.

[Koz]

If Kennedy's seat went to a Republican anything can happen this election cycle.

[RedStripe]

do you realize the number of people in district 4 who showed up in 08 just for Obama and voted straight Dem?

I think that Lawson has a shot at this.

[Fozz]

do you realize the number of people in district 4 who showed up in 08 just for Obama and voted straight Dem?

I think that Lawson has a shot at this.

It would be a shame to have BJ for only one term, because you know the Obamabots will be back in 2012.

[speciallyblend]

YouTube - Jamiroquai Dance Compilation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMC3ffwoMVE)

never say never. if he runs a Liberty Platform. I think he can WIN!!! if folks view him as a typical republican neo-con. then he will lose!!

[catdd]

It would be a shame to have BJ for only one term, because you know the Obamabots will be back in 2012.

The BlackBots will be back but there won't be the same hysteria among the WhiteBots as in 08.

[RedStripe]

The BlackBots will be back but there won't be the same hysteria among the WhiteBots as in 08.

Um, actually that depends on how shitty the Republican Presidential Candidate is, which, based on recent history, is probably going to be an absolute worthless carcass of a candidate

[catdd]

It still won't be the same as 08.
More people know the difference between shit and shineola now.

YouTube - The Jerk - Shit and Shinola (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsyS0oHLNFA&playnext_from=TL&videos=UVIx_Pmj1ZM)

[speciallyblend]

do you realize the number of people in district 4 who showed up in 08 just for Obama and voted straight Dem?

I think that Lawson has a shot at this.

this is a win for us in every state. lawson winning the republican primary is telling every local/state and national gop!! we are here to stay and we are not buying the BS!!!! this is bigger then paul revere . Liberty is COMING!!!! to me and everyone this should be a huge victory for our MESSAGE and PLATFORM!!!!!

[Daamien]

Great job!

[speciallyblend]

Um, actually that depends on how shitty the Republican Presidential Candidate is, which, based on recent history, is probably going to be an absolute worthless carcass of a candidate

Liberty Candidates 2010, and there is only one candidate left in the gop with any credibility to win a general election as a republican;) RON PAUL 2012.

the gop better figure this out asap or they will be left at that station in 2010 sooner then they think!!

[TCE]

The general ballot has moved several points in the other direction according to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/104374/democrats-hold-house-looks-secure-now.aspx

That is from February 2008 and it only got worse for the Republicans after that.

Here is the present one: http://www.gallup.com/poll/125726/Generic-Ballot-Congress.aspx

It is tied. So, if the election were held today, it would probably be Price: 57% Lawson: 43%, if we're playing it safe.

[RedStripe]

It still won't be the same as 08.
More people know the difference between shit and shineola now.


Hahahaha

I'd love to see evidence of that.

Even if people know that Obama's not a saint, they'll still vote for him (and dems) if Republicans put up another McCain, Bush, Dole, etc

[RedStripe]

this is a win for us in every state. lawson winning the republican primary is telling every local/state and national gop!! we are here to stay and we are not buying the BS!!!! this is bigger then paul revere . Liberty is COMING!!!! to me and everyone this should be a huge victory for our MESSAGE and PLATFORM!!!!!

Actually lawson had a much tougher campaign this time around vs the 2008 primary which just goes to show how the vast majority of the anti-Obama swing is just being absorbed and abused by the republican establishment rather than being the source of some major libertarian-republican insurgency.

[purplechoe]

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2240/2429393921_ff881a8061.jpg

[angelatc]

So, if the election were held today, it would probably be Price: 57% Lawson: 43%, if we're playing it safe.

He will need money.

[speciallyblend]

He will need money.

lawsons win in gop primary alone sends a dam good ripple/message effect thru the local/state/national gops as well. It lets them know we are for cereal;) there is more to come;) the best thing for our message is he will have to seperate himself from the usual establishment republican!! this can only help us in a general election!!!

[BuddyRey]

Way to go BJ!

[michaelwise]

Congrats BJ. Incumbents will be easy to beat this go round.

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Well that's excellent news. I honestly thought with his late entry into the race it was a lost cause, but I'm glad to be wrong.

[JamesButabi]

Start planning now. We need to get him up and funded quickly.

[BenIsForRon]

I just want to know how the hell Roche got almost 10,000. He's is such a douche bag.

[Brian4Liberty]

Great news! Things are different this year.

[Michigan11]

Lawson is pissed he didn't win it in 08', he doesn't give up or in, and knows what to do to win it this time, otherwise he wouldn't be in it this time. He entered late and saw an in-road to victory. We need to double our efforts from 08' and bring in the funds required to out-fund his opponent, this is going to be so worth it. It will be the crack in the damn, that proves we as a movement can beat the "MACHINE".

[Distinguished Gentleman]

If I could pick just one person to be the face of our movement, it would be him. I don't just mean he's telegenic, he has a way with people that is unique. Watching the videos from last years campaign, it seemed the people just inherently trusted him. He sells the movement in a way that doesn't just appeal to our typical crowd.

If he meets and greets as often as Rand does, he might have a chance.

[Endgame]

Wow we finally won a primary. I hadn't really bothered to look into this guy before today. That's a Randian ubermensch if there ever was one.

[CGeoffrion]

We gotta help this guy. I can't believe I forgot about him since 08. Is their a money bomb planned already? I'll def toss his some funds. Living in the liberal lala land of MA makes it very easy to help the out of state candidates get a little bump. MA politics are completely hopeless! (Scott Brown makes Glove (Mitt Romney) look like Thomas Jefferson)

[Taco John]

Lawson is the kind of candidate that the House is all about. Proud to see him win. He's going to need money.

[libertarian4321]

If we raise money, we should use it to buy houses and move District 4 Democrats out of the district, because as it stands now, no Republican, no matter how photogenic or well funded, has much of a chance in this district.

Given the past results in this district, it is nearly an impossible task- and it ain't just because the Dem incumbent was "riding Obama's coat tails" last time- the guy has scored over 60% of the vote in every election since the last redistricting- including years with weak Dem candidates leading the party (Kerry in '04).

In political terms, a 64-36% result isn't even remotely competitive. Maybe with a little luck, some anti incumbent feeling, and good donations, a guy who loses 55-45 might have a shot at turning things around, but 64-36 is a brutal ass beating and would take a miracle to reverse.

I sent him money last time, even though my brain was telling me it was a lost cause. I got caught up in the hype, I guess, and let emotion override my better judgment.

I'm not so sure I'm willing to do the same this time around unless something convinces me that he has a legitimate shot.

I hope he wins, but I wouldn't bet the rent money on it.

[TCE]

If we raise money, we should use it to buy houses and move District 4 Democrats out of the district, because as it stands now, no Republican, no matter how photogenic or well funded, has much of a chance in this district.

Given the past results in this district, it is nearly an impossible task- and it ain't just because the Dem incumbent was "riding Obama's coat tails" last time- the guy has scored over 60% of the vote in every election since the last redistricting- including years with weak Dem candidates leading the party (Kerry in '04).

In political terms, a 64-36% result isn't even remotely competitive. Maybe with a little luck, some anti incumbent feeling, and good donations, a guy who loses 55-45 might have a shot at turning things around, but 64-36 is a brutal ass beating and would take a miracle to reverse.

I sent him money last time, even though my brain was telling me it was a lost cause. I got caught up in the hype, I guess, and let emotion override my better judgment.

I'm not so sure I'm willing to do the same this time around unless something convinces me that he has a legitimate shot.

I hope he wins, but I wouldn't bet the rent money on it.

In 2008, it was absolutely a lost cause. But this time, check the current North Carolina feelings about Republicans, the generic ballot is 48-45 in favor of Republicans, it was 55-41 in favor of Democrats last time around, check my earlier links in this thread for proof.

Trust me, I am the first person on this board to call a candidate out who has no chance, but Lawson doesn't fit that bill if he frames his message correctly and fixes some mistakes from last time. Democrats won't go to the polls in nearly as high of numbers and Republican turnout is expected to be insane. If he convinces enough Independents and get almost all of the Republicans voting for him, he stands a chance. Sure, he needs to get a lot of boots on the ground and funds, but he can do it. And when I say he needs funds, I mean he needs to outspend Price by at least $250,000.

[pacelli]

For those who feel compelled to donate to Lawson after his primary win, do not wait for a money bomb. Please donate as soon as you can. Again, do not wait for a money bomb date. Just donate.

For those that do not feel compelled to donate, don't.

[PBrady]

YouTube - BJ Lawson Thanks Supporters for Their Primary Efforts (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ux1RhBeD7y4)

[Peace&Freedom]

It's a different year, yes, but a Democratic district is still a Democratic district. The incumbent has been there since for decades, people, come on! Lawson should run in a Republican district if he wants to win a GOP nomination, and have a decent shot in the election. Go for a lay-up, or a slam dunk, because that, and only that, is high percentage. If we concentrated on running Ron Paul candidates in primary races that correspond to the way the district actually historically trends, we'd be a lot farther along in electing liberty candidates. Instead, we keep shooting from the half court line, and calling our scoring attempts realistic.

[ItsTime]

What are the polls saying about the general? I know he is in a heavy dem area, but dems can be beat. What are the polls saying?

[PBrady]

He just won the primary a couple of hours ago...there are no polls.

[ItsTime]

He just won the primary a couple of hours ago...there are no polls.

Why not? There were polls between Rand and his would be D opponents.

[PBrady]

Why not? There were polls between Rand and his would be D opponents.
Because Rand is running for senate?

Also,

YouTube - Primary Victory Speech (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XCL_B7yqXQ)

[pacelli]

Why not? There were polls between Rand and his would be D opponents.

How come you haven't commissioned one??

[speciallyblend]

blimpin for liberty, now the fight begins! the ron paul platform can win!! liberty has no party!!

[TCE]

It's a different year, yes, but a Democratic district is still a Democratic district. The incumbent has been there since for decades, people, come on! Lawson should run in a Republican district if he wants to win a GOP nomination, and have a decent shot in the election. Go for a lay-up, or a slam dunk, because that, and only that, is high percentage. If we concentrated on running Ron Paul candidates in primary races that correspond to the way the district actually historically trends, we'd be a lot farther along in electing liberty candidates. Instead, we keep shooting from the half court line, and calling our scoring attempts realistic.

This is a little outside the 3-point line. Some of our other candidates are from half court and some even beyond that. Again, Lawson can do it, but he'll need to work incredibly hard and raise tons of money.

[BenIsForRon]

It'd be nice if he could reach out to some prominent black leaders in Durham. Some big business owners, some preachers... can't think of any other highly visible black people, but there has got to be a way into that demographic.

He's going to have trouble talking sense into the elitist democrats of Wake or Durham, so I can't really see him converting any upper-middle class Hillary supporters that he should get their votes. But maybe there is a way into that demo too.

[TCE]

It'd be nice if he could reach out to some prominent black leaders in Durham. Some big business owners, some preachers... can't think of any other highly visible black people, but there has got to be a way into that demographic.

He's going to have trouble talking sense into the elitist democrats of Wake or Durham, so I can't really see him converting any upper-middle class Hillary supporters that he should get their votes. But maybe there is a way into that demo too.

Being legitimately anti-war and telling them he WILL vote to get us out of Afghanistan/Iraq, unlike Price?

[BenIsForRon]

Being legitimately anti-war and telling them he WILL vote to get us out of Afghanistan/Iraq, unlike Price?

You mean for the blacks or the yuppie liberals?

I know it would work for a lot of lower class blacks, especially if you connect it to the economy.

The yuppies? Maybe so, but a lot of Dems are just as bad with Obama as the Repubs were with Bush. They have the "We have to support our leader" mentality.

[TCE]

You mean for the blacks or the yuppie liberals?

I know it would work for a lot of lower class blacks, especially if you connect it to the economy.

The yuppies? Maybe so, but a lot of Dems are just as bad with Obama as the Repubs were with Bush. They have the "We have to support our leader" mentality.

With some Democrats, if you play to the "we are going to end the wars and vote to stop spending money on them," you might get a vote. This should work even better for Independents. HOWEVER, the people on the ground need to do this, Lawson himself cannot be seen pandering to Democrats, otherwise the Republicans will turn on him. This is essentially what Roche, his primary opponent, used as his main argument.

[TCE]

You mean for the blacks or the yuppie liberals?

I know it would work for a lot of lower class blacks, especially if you connect it to the economy.

The yuppies? Maybe so, but a lot of Dems are just as bad with Obama as the Repubs were with Bush. They have the "We have to support our leader" mentality.

I am a big fan of "we have spent $600 billion on the wars, think how many people could have health insurance and food with that money." ~ Dr. Paul.

[rancher89]

I've watched that video a couple of dozen times now and I have yet not been moved.

BJ is the real deal and now that he's won his primary we need to do what it takes to make this happen,.


Dems are not happy with what's been going on, there is a firm pool out there that we need to tap.

[BenIsForRon]

I am a big fan of "we have spent $600 billion on the wars, think how many people could have health insurance and food with that money." ~ Dr. Paul.

Totally. The reservation I've always had about that, though, is that Lawson, like Paul, generally supports ending entitlement programs.

Lawson will have to make it very clear that he is for a phased elimination of those programs, so people aren't worried about their family or friends losing their housing or monthly food income.

[Agorism]

This district is solid dem tho?

[rancher89]

Pretty much, but in NC that doesn't always mean they vote dem...

We call them "blue dog dems" and we count on them to vote for us on fiscally conservative issues.

PLUS the largest demographic, politically speaking, in NC, is the independent....and those folks are the "meat."

[marc1888]

2008 was the year of Obama's coat-tails.


Blacks wont turn out this year...and many Indy's will abandon Obama...(just like the anti-Clinton surge of 1994)

The key will be TURNOUT.

This is still a tough one.......but not impossible. However, when Barry runs again in 2012, the black vote will likely return to boot Lawson out.

Actually this probably wont happen. Due to population increase Price and Sue Myrick have far too many folks for a congressional district so both of them need to be redrawn. If BJ takes the 4th then that would mean the Democrat turnout is low which means the GOP will probably take the house and senate which means redistricting will be biased towards keeping the 4th and 9th gopper.

So if BJ sneaks in this year he will be there as long as he wants to be.

[marc1888]

This district is solid dem tho?

But they are a funny kind of dem. The right message at the right time, apathy in their base and this seat is winnable. I know this district very very well and if BJ has the money to deliver the right message he can win this race. The 4th district of NC is probably one of the most progressive districts in North Carolina and they are quietly seething at Obama and seething over the war. Now if Frank Roche had won last night he would get 35% of the vote in the general like every other neocon gopper gets. However BJ's numbers from 2008 were heavily skewered because of the obama surge in this district. A generic gopper in 2008 would probably have got around the 32% mark (in the adjacent disticts of the 2nd and 13th GOP candidates lost between 3-5% from the norm)BJ actually polled 37%. He also had to contend with virtually the dislike of the whole establishment base and leadership as well some very angry neocons who still dislike his liberty message to this day.

So in short yes it is a long hard slog but this year is looking better at every turn and knowing BJ very well i know he has the will to put in the effort to win this. I would say right now BJ would break the 40% barrier if the election was tomorrow. The right message and the money to deliver it can put BJ in the margin of error and apathy (and maybe some good old fashioned 4th district rain as it always does on election day ;-) will take him over the top.

There is no other candidate i know who could win this seat except BJ Lawson. The guy is a fecking rock star in the 4th and i am no starry eyed dreamer either :-)

[CUnknown]

It would be a shame to have BJ for only one term, because you know the Obamabots will be back in 2012.

The Obama effect will be a very different animal in 2012, I predict. As the country continues to decline, anti-incumbent feelings will predominate. Of course I guess we will be saying Lawson would be an incumbent by then, so maybe he gets screwed either way. :o

But 2 years of Lawson would be better than none! Go BJ!!

[low preference guy]

Let's win this seat in 2010 first! We'll figure out how to keep it in 2012 later!

[TCE]

Totally. The reservation I've always had about that, though, is that Lawson, like Paul, generally supports ending entitlement programs.

Lawson will have to make it very clear that he is for a phased elimination of those programs, so people aren't worried about their family or friends losing their housing or monthly food income.

That is actually a quote from Dr. Paul. He doesn't literally state that he wants increased entitlements, he merely uses it as an illustration for how pointless and costly the wars are. I have used that argument with several liberal friends and they really like it. When I tell them it is from Ron Paul, they think it's awesome.

If we get Gunny into the legislature, he can talk to the higher-ups in the GOP about drawing B.J.'s district so that he has an easy re-election for the next 10 years. That's the importance of getting liberty lovers into the legislatures, they can protect other lovers of liberty.

[Peace&Freedom]

This is a little outside the 3-point line. Some of our other candidates are from half court and some even beyond that. Again, Lawson can do it, but he'll need to work incredibly hard and raise tons of money.

Successful strategies to WIN elections begin by focusing only on situations where there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of victory, not merely 'possible if everything goes okay' (PEGO). Running in open seat races, with appropriate funds and backing, on a line that matches the voting patterns of the district/area, are essential to this. We can't settle for anything less than high percentage election races---in the case of PEGOs we will lose every time. Rand Paul is in that high probability position IF he can get past the GOP gatekeepers to win the nomination. Schiff, maybe is in the same situation, if he can win the primary over the wrestling CEO. But Kokesh, Lawson, most of the others, NO.

Let's not turn the liberty candidate movement into the second coming of the third party movement. The LP runs candidates everywhere we can not with any expectation we are going to win the election, but to ensure the party agenda and brand is represented in the campaign and on the ballot. To be distinctive and focused on victory, the Paul-like candidates need to pick good candidates like Lawson, AND pick their spots as to when to run them. The spot picking is not happenning, which means a whole lot of "incredibly hard work" and energy is being wasted on races that should never had been contested in the first place. This will burn out or marginalize the movement, like others before it, unless we smarten up.