B.J. Lawson leading his primary!

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/15705/23506/en/summary.html

You have to press 'next' twice (page 3) until you get to North Carolina's fourth congressional district for the GOP side.

It reads: "US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 4 - REP"

[spudea]

lawson in the lead! will it hold?

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Nevermind, Lawson now ahead.

http://i44.tinypic.com/4iec2d.jpg

In other good news: Walter B. Jones in winning with 75%.

[low preference guy]

yes!

we might be getting.....

a....

Second Ron Paul in the House!

[BenIsForRon]

Dude you scared the shit out of me, check it out now

edit: well I wasted my time getting that picture. Keep us updated

[BenIsForRon]

Durham isn't reporting.

I imagine he campaigned there pretty hard, right?

[Epic]

yes!

we might be getting.....

a....

Second Ron Paul in the House!

Well, Lawson won the primary last time, it didn't mean much. He has to beat the socialist in a socialist district.

Lawson is winning in Wake (60% of votes will come from here), but Roche is winning in Orange and Chatham. Durham hasn't come in at all. Roche could come back easily.

[speciallyblend]

Liberty Candidates 2010, Ron Paul 2012!!! woot woot

[daviddee]

...

[BenIsForRon]

We went through this in 2008.

It amazes me why anyone bothers to follow the race or donate money.

BJ Lawson needs to MOVE. The demographics of his district guarantee he will never win the general election.

Enjoy the win, but be realistic about the district he is trying to win in.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... BJ Lawson 2012!!

What a completely ignorant post! If Lawson has a chance to win in any year, its this one. It's mid-term election (black people and liberals aren't rushing out to support Obama), and anti-obama sentiment is energizing republicans nationwide.

He did well considering the circumstances last election. That means he could win this time.

[Shotdown1027]

With 64% reporting, he's got 47% over Roche's 40%. Looks like he's the likely winner (though it aint over yet)

[pacelli]

We went through this in 2008.

It amazes me why anyone bothers to follow the race or donate money.

BJ Lawson needs to MOVE. The demographics of his district guarantee he will never win the general election.

Enjoy the win, but be realistic about the district he is trying to win in.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... BJ Lawson 2012!!

Are you basically saying that there is no point to campaigning against David Price?

[BenIsForRon]

I can't believe those other two doofuses managed to grab 3%.

[speciallyblend]

We went through this in 2008.

It amazes me why anyone bothers to follow the race or donate money.

BJ Lawson needs to MOVE. The demographics of his district guarantee he will never win the general election.

Enjoy the win, but be realistic about the district he is trying to win in.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... BJ Lawson 2012!!

so what your saying is why bother? hmmm well i guess winning in my county with a 16-9 delegate vote in gop primary and having the possibility of winning in general is not good enough for you?? might as well cancel all elections and sporting events since we could win or lose! we are in a strong dem district ourselves but we can win! are you actually saying all democrats think alike and are not individuals?? if all dems are socialists then that makes all republicans fascists!! seems only fair, personally i like your idea we should give everything east of denver back to the europeans:) move to Colorado folks, leave the east coast to the neo-cons!

[HOLLYWOOD]

http://i533.photobucket.com/albums/ee332/McLieberman/BJLawson.png

[JoshLowry]

Goooooo BJ!

[daviddee]

...

[daviddee]

...

[No1ButPaul08]

Ignorant? One needs to review the facts of the situation. You are ignoring the facts of race he is in.

BJ got 25% last time. So even with a 50% increase he will get 37% this time.

Facts? One can argue if Lawson has a chance or not but if your going to post about facts at least get your own facts straight. Lawson got 36% last time, not the 25% you claim.

[tremendoustie]

The changed political climate, as well as the anti-incumbent climate, and his ongoing educational efforts, is easily enough to swing 36% to 51%.

Look at what happened in the MA Senate race.

And, I consider Lawson to be our best candidate nationwide, other than RP, bar none. We need to get that man into office, and give him a bully pulpit.

Edit: If he doesn't win this time, I do think he should move.

[daviddee]

...

[GunnyFreedom]

BJ still holding up, but district 2 is getting walked on

[daviddee]

...

[Epic]

From the Durham county website:

US CONG 04 4TH CONGRESS
Seats 1
(WITH 66 OF 66 PRECINCTS COUNTED)
David Price (DEM). . . . . . . . 102,191 76.69
William (B.J.) Lawson (REP) . . . . 31,055 23.31

So he got 23.31% last time.

If I am looking at the wrong data please link to the right data.

Lawson got 36.5%...

You are just looking at Durham county. 4th district isn't just one county.

[tremendoustie]

As I said in my original post. BJ needs to move... He is a great candidate in a shit district.

If he doesn't win this time, I agree that he should move.

[daviddee]

...

[speciallyblend]

If he doesn't win this time, I agree that he should move.
he can move here;)
Leadville Liberty Project
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=241436&highlight=leadville+liberty+project

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Here is what Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling located in North Carolina said of this race tonight:


The 4th District has trended so Democratic since David Price lost in 1994 that I think a Lawson win is impossible. But he may hold Price under 60% and that would be impressive in and of itself.

I tend to agree. It's not really a winnable seat. But still a hundred times more winnable than Nancy Pelosi's seat in San Francisco.

[daviddee]

...

[Epic]

Yes, it has trended very democratic:

2008 President Obama 63 - 36%
2004 President Kerry 55 - 44%
2000 President Gore 53 - 46%

That's a 10 point swing (53% - 63%) from 2000-2008 when nationally, the swing was about 3 points.

Whites are down to 70%. Blacks and hispanics make up > 25%.

It will be almost impossible for BJ - but if it's possible, then this is the year.

[Epic]

BJ up 950 votes. Orange and Wake are in completely. Roche would have to really dominate the remaining votes to come back.

[daviddee]

...

[GunnyFreedom]

Actually, THIS is very interesting:

http://i41.tinypic.com/332at85.jpg

[low preference guy]

So, is it logical to assume BJ's message is going to be well received by masses of people who expect their "social services"?

It's all about framing the message correctly.

[specsaregood]

Yes, it has trended very democratic:
2008 President Obama 63 - 36%
2004 President Kerry 55 - 44%
2000 President Gore 53 - 46%
That's a 10 point swing (53% - 63%) from 2000-2008 when nationally, the swing was about 3 points.


Wouldn't a better comparison be to non presidential election years?

[GunnyFreedom]

Actually, THIS is very interesting:

http://i41.tinypic.com/332at85.jpg

There are two Democrats in the write-in race to replace John May, the man selected to run against me in the fall. I endorsed one of them: Kathey Harrelson as the more principled, conservative candidate. It looks like someone got their write-in campaign off the ground. It will be very interesting indeed to see Kathy win that seat...

[TCE]

There are two Democrats in the write-in race to replace John May, the man selected to run against me in the fall. I endorsed one of them: Kathey Harrelson as the more principled, conservative candidate. It looks like someone got their write-in campaign off the ground. It will be very interesting indeed to see Kathy win that seat...

How does that affect you in the fall?

As far as Lawson goes: He needs to focus on exciting his base (since over 9,000 voted for his opponent) and preaching to Independents. He must not repeat the same mistakes as last time, don't preach to Independents, otherwise Republicans won't care about voting for you. It's going to be all about the base and Independents. Funding is also a must.

[nayjevin]

'the seat' is nice, but not all of the value of a campaign.

Disenfranchised voters are not counted in past statistics. Liberty candidates own this demographic.

People only get 'shattered' emotionally by a loss when they invest emotion into it. The amount of emotion invested may not be in proportion with the potential of 'winning'. This is not relevant to where and whether Lawson should run.

Lawson appeals to the spectrum moreso than the opponent entrenched.

These races are precisely what we need to find out what we can do in this kind of district. They show us the reality of today - not 2 or 4 years ago.

But some campaigns are less successful than others. I would be more for recommending 4th party 1%'s avoid campaigns, but BJ is a candidate who is above the threshold.

He will be mentioned in all the articles, prominent on the ballots, have widespread recognition, will open eyes, and most importantly, will develop personally as a candidate. All valuable, win or loss.

[TCE]

'the seat' is nice, but not all of the value of a campaign.

Disenfranchised voters are not counted in past statistics. Liberty candidates own this demographic.

People only get 'shattered' emotionally by a loss when they invest emotion into it. The amount of emotion invested may not be in proportion with the potential of 'winning'. This is not relevant to where and whether Lawson should run.

Lawson appeals to the spectrum moreso than the opponent entrenched.

These races are precisely what we need to find out what we can do in this kind of district. They show us the reality of today - not 2 or 4 years ago.

But a campaign could be a waste. I would be more for recommending 4th party 1%'s avoid campaigns, but BJ is a candidate who is above the threshold.

He will be mentioned in all the articles, prominent on the ballots, have widespread recognition, will open eyes, and most importantly, will develop personally as a candidate. All valuable, win or loss.

Agreed, especially on your final point. He needs to talk about his character as a person in order to appeal to Independents and a few Democrats. If they feel like they're voting for a genuinely good person who is outside the mainstream, he stands an excellent chance. Don't be fooled though, Price will not go down easily.

[Epic]

LAWSON WINS. ALL RESULTS ARE IN.

46% - 41%

Margin is 1305 votes.

Durham came in for Lawson.

Roche won Chatham and Orange, but they are fairly small.

Wake is where the votes are, and Lawson took it.

[GunnyFreedom]

http://i42.tinypic.com/6rpjky.gif

Woot! :D

[speciallyblend]

http://i42.tinypic.com/6rpjky.gif

Woot! :D

blimpin for Liberty ,

[TruthisTreason]

Awesome!

[cooker263]

wow this is great news!

[PBrady]

Vid of party coming tomorrow after rest.

[speciallyblend]

Vid of party coming tomorrow after rest.

look forward to watching the video!!!!

[MikeStanart]

Excellent!

Now lets just hope the political climate has changed enough like we all hope!

Let the Dems stay home this time!

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

Ignorant? One needs to review the facts of the situation. You are ignoring the facts of race he is in.

The district that BJ Lawson is in votes 75% Democrat each election. BJ got 25% last time. So even with a 50% increase he will get 37% this time. WooHoo BJ Lawson 2012!! 2014!! 2016!!

His district votes the same as San Francisco County, CA each election.

Same shit hole different coast.

Lawson won 37% in the election in 2008. How about facts, not conjecture. BTW, where would a 50% increase of 37% get him to....

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

Also Fred Heinemann beat Price for the seat in 1994. So Price has lost before, the question is, is 2010 like 1994...

[libertarian4321]

Hope springs eternal.

Maybe the Lions will win the Super Bowl this year.

Maybe we can pencil the Timberwolves into the NBA finals next year.

Maybe New Jersey Institute of Technology will beat Duke to win the NCAA basketball tournament next year.

Maybe Lawson will beat the Democrat in a heavily Dem district.

Anything can happen, but probably won't.

You can always have "hope," but that "hope" should be tempered with at least a moderate dose of reality.

It would take a miracle of nearly Biblical proportions for any of the events I listed to actually come true.

[Southron]

I sure wish he had run against Howard Coble in my district 6.

This was the first time in his 26 years in office he had a primary challenger. And if you win, you are almost guaranteed the seat for life as the Democrats don't stand a chance here.

We really need a candidate when he retires.