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erowe1
04-29-2010, 12:38 PM
http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100429/LOCAL08/100429447&SAXOEdAjax=1&AjaxRequestUniqueId=127255182534620&template=printart


Dan Coats is the top choice of more than a third of Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday’s Senate primary, according to a statewide poll conducted for a political science center at Indiana University Purdue University Fort Wayne. The telephone survey completed this week shows Coats leading John Hostettler by 12 percentage points. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

Coats and Hostettler are among five candidates competing for the nomination and a chance to run against the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, in November. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., announced in February that he would not seek a third term.

Asked for whom they’d vote, 407 registered Hoosier voters who said they were likely to vote on Tuesday said:

Coats, 36 percent;
Hostettler, 24 percent;
Marlin Stutzman, 18 percent;
Don Bates Jr. 6 percent;
Richard Behney, 4 percent;
Nearly one in seven voters – 13 percent – said they were undecided.
The poll was conducted for the nonpartisan Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.

It's overall bad news. But there are silver linings:
1) Hostettler's still in it.
2) Hostettler's the only one who can beat Coats. Conservatives who are behind Stutzman thinking he's the one who can do it, need to be told about this and vote Hostettler instead.
3) There will be some payoff on election day from Hostettler's advantage in volunteers. It's hard to say how much.

Nathan Hale
04-29-2010, 12:42 PM
It's overall bad news. But there are silver linings:
1) Hostettler's still in it.
2) Hostettler's the only one who can beat Coats. Conservatives who are behind Stutzman thinking he's the one who can do it, need to be told about this and vote Hostettler instead.
3) There will be some payoff on election day from Hostettler's advantage in volunteers. It's hard to say how much.

DeMint will be the death of us in this race. He's the only reason that Stutzman is even on the radar. Imagine all those points that DeMint gave Stutzman going instead to Hostettler. I've already given DeMint's PAC an earful, for all the good that'll do us. Let's hope that Stutzman supporters come to grips with Hostettler as the "lesser evil" and forget about their guy, because otherwise we're going to get Dan "Crist" Coats in the general election.

erowe1
04-29-2010, 01:00 PM
Demint may well prefer Coats to Hostettler anyway. And that may well be part of why he did that.

Badger Paul
04-29-2010, 02:09 PM
Actually it's not all that bad at all:

1). Hostettler is second, which Sutzman's pub or money so far hasn't done him much good
2). Hostettler's second without having spend a lot on media
3). Coats is a weak first place, despite having the higher name recognition than his opponents

As in all elections turnout will be important. If Hostettler can get a big turnout in Southern Indiana, he'll be in very good shape.

TCE
04-29-2010, 02:54 PM
DeMint will be the death of us in this race. He's the only reason that Stutzman is even on the radar. Imagine all those points that DeMint gave Stutzman going instead to Hostettler. I've already given DeMint's PAC an earful, for all the good that'll do us. Let's hope that Stutzman supporters come to grips with Hostettler as the "lesser evil" and forget about their guy, because otherwise we're going to get Dan "Crist" Coats in the general election.

DeMint's endorsement is virtually meaningless. No point in giving him weight. Stutzman is splitting the conservative vote all by himself. All he needs to do is take away a bit of Hostettler's support and Coats wins. It's sad, because if he wins the primary, he wins the general.

Young Paleocon
04-29-2010, 03:21 PM
Is the polling skewered because it was a cross-Indiana poll which will diminish the concentration of support that Hostettler will get in his home district?

erowe1
04-29-2010, 03:30 PM
Is the polling skewered because it was a cross-Indiana poll which will diminish the concentration of support that Hostettler will get in his home district?

I don't know what the accuracy of the poll is. But I don't think your argument would apply. The actual election on May 4 will also be a cross-Indiana poll. The concentration of support Hostettler has in his home district should have the same affect in both.

There could, however, be other factors that a poll can't measure, such as committed Hostettler voters being more likely to bother voting, and other advantages Hostettler may have when it comes to getting out the vote on election day.

Imperial
04-29-2010, 03:36 PM
This is no bueno. If it were Texas Hostettler would make a runoff with Coats, and then the Hoss would be the overwhelming conservative choice.

dirtfarmerz
04-29-2010, 04:07 PM
I wonder how accurate it is? I say this because the poll makes you believe that is definite proof that Coats is breaking out of the pack. However, the poll just samples 407 registered voters. Not only are there not many participants in it but the poll also doesn't reveal the percentage of Democrats, Republicans, or Independants taking part. Do you think a great number of the Democrats will choose Hostettler over Coats?

erowe1
04-29-2010, 04:47 PM
Do you think a great number of the Democrats will choose Hostettler over Coats?

I don't expect Democrats to be a big factor in the Republican primary. You can only vote in one of the party's primaries, and that's for the whole ballot. So, even though the Dems don't have a choice for their Senate candidate, they do have down ballot candidates they'll be nominating for their party, which they can only do if they choose the Democrat ballot at their polling place. There may be some crossover, but probably mainly from conservative Dems who are sick of their party and ready to switch. I really don't know who the crossover Dem voters would favor.

dirtfarmerz
04-29-2010, 05:14 PM
I don't expect Democrats to be a big factor in the Republican primary. You can only vote in one of the party's primaries, and that's for the whole ballot. So, even though the Dems don't have a choice for their Senate candidate, they do have down ballot candidates they'll be nominating for their party, which they can only do if they choose the Democrat ballot at their polling place. There may be some crossover, but probably mainly from conservative Dems who are sick of their party and ready to switch. I really don't know who the crossover Dem voters would favor.


I am not wondering what effect that Democrats will have on May 4th. I agree they will be choosing Democratic ballots. What I am talking about now is the poll itself. If you look at who was randomly sampled, it just clearly states registered voters who are likely to vote in the Republican primary. That's all it says yet all the news stories about the poll are usually saying something like "likely Republican voters." To me that's two different things. This is why I am wondering if Coats poll numbers are artificially inflated(deliberately or not) due to Democrats participating in and voting for Coats in the poll. You see what I am saying? Furthermore, this little item is made worse by all the news outlets reporting the poll as a survey of "likely Republican" voters when it isn't. I may be confusing you but "likely Republican voters" says registered Republicans to me vs. "registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary" could include a significant number of Democrats.

Secondly, if you look at the details of the poll over on INGunowners, Eric, the poll is saying Dan Coats is the leader among the TEA Party people by at least 7%. Does that make SENSE to you?

Again, do you see what I am getting? If I slap my little tinfoil hat on, I could look at this poll as one way to boost Coats numbers(the handpicked candidate) on May 4th since everyone likes to vote for the winner.

In the end, is this poll really all that accurate considering what I just said? I don't know and only on May 4th will we know for sure........

erowe1
04-29-2010, 06:17 PM
I am not wondering what effect that Democrats will have on May 4th. I agree they will be choosing Democratic ballots. What I am talking about now is the poll itself. If you look at who was randomly sampled, it just clearly states registered voters who are likely to vote in the Republican primary. That's all it says yet all the news stories about the poll are usually saying something like "likely Republican voters." To me that's two different things.
How the Survey USA people determine who really is likely to vote in the GOP primary I don't know. I'd like to know too. But it's safe to assume that the voter's history of voting in Republican primaries (which is publicly available information) is probably a factor in their giving someone that label.


Furthermore, this little item is made worse by all the news outlets reporting the poll as a survey of "likely Republican" voters when it isn't. I may be confusing you but "likely Republican voters" says registered Republicans to me vs. "registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary" could include a significant number of Democrats.
We actually don't have any party registration here at all. So it's not about "registered Republicans" or "registered Democrats," it's just about who will vote in the Republican primary, which is all those articles meant by the phrase "likely Republican voters."


Secondly, if you look at the details of the poll over on INGunowners, Eric, the poll is saying Dan Coats is the leader among the TEA Party people by at least 7%. Does that make SENSE to you?

It actually does make sense. You have to look at it this way. When they say "tea party people" they're not talking about people who actually have any real affiliation with any so-called tea party group or movement or whatever. They're just talking about people who, when asked, "Do you identify with the tea party movement?" answer in the affirmative. I don't know what percentage of people likely to vote in the Republican primary did answer that in the affirmative, but I expect it was a large majority, including people who have very little background with tea parties beyond maybe attending one once or wishing they had. Because of that, it would be expected that the support of each candidate with so-called tea party people would follow their overall numbers somewhat closely, which they do. Coats did slightly worse with tea partiers than overall, which is also expected. Hostettler also did just a bit worse with tea partiers, but by an amount less than the margin of error.

All that said, you don't need a tin foil hat. We just don't know the accuracy of the poll, and you're right, we will on the night of May 4.

At any rate, it definitely shouldn't take the wind out of our sails. It should inspire us to volunteer and get others to, especially on election day. And if you weren't planning on taking the day off then to help, this should tell you you should. If it's close to accurate, then the three big points are that Hostettler's behind, that he's still within reach of overcoming Coats with a solid final push, and that no other candidate can do it so we should be trying to get their supporters to come over to Hostettler.

Imperial
04-29-2010, 07:35 PM
The only legit criticism I have seen of SUSA for some time is from the congressional races FDL hired them to poll. They seemed to over-represent seniors and under-represent youth.

erowe1
04-29-2010, 07:53 PM
The only legit criticism I have seen of SUSA for some time is from the congressional races FDL hired them to poll. They seemed to over-represent seniors and under-represent youth.

Interesting. If that problem is a factor in this poll, then it definitely works against Coats. The last time he was on a ballot was 18 years ago, so the only age group where he has a serious advantage in name recognition is seniors.