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View Full Version : IN-Senate Poll Released: Coats 36%, Hostettler 24%, Stutzman 18%, Other 10%, U/D 13%




MRoCkEd
04-29-2010, 09:11 AM
Coats leads poll on Senate primary (http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100429/LOCAL08/100429447&SAXOEdAjax=1&AjaxRequestUniqueId=127255182534620&template=printart)
By Sylvia A Smith
Washington editor

Dan Coats is the top choice of more than a third of Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday’s Senate primary, according to a statewide poll conducted for a political science center at Indiana University Purdue University Fort Wayne. The telephone survey completed this week shows Coats leading John Hostettler by 12 percentage points. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

Coats and Hostettler are among five candidates competing for the nomination and a chance to run against the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, in November. Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., announced in February that he would not seek a third term.

Asked for whom they’d vote, 407 registered Hoosier voters who said they were likely to vote on Tuesday said:

* Coats, 36 percent;
* Hostettler, 24 percent;
* Marlin Stutzman, 18 percent;
* Don Bates Jr. 6 percent;
* Richard Behney, 4 percent;

Nearly one in seven voters – 13 percent – said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted for the nonpartisan Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.

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DeMint is obviously hurting Hostettler by backing faux-conservative Stutzman... John is 12 points behind the establishment Coats with 5 days to go.

Help him out: http://www.JohnHostettler.com

itshappening
04-29-2010, 09:28 AM
the Stutzman guy should have dropped out, Coats is going to sneak in and I imagine DeMint and friends wouldnt be so bothered about that

I think John can still win, depending on turnout and if those who say they vote Stutzman and the others are willing to abandon them.

Hostettler though is still doing well and is certainly viable :(

Epic
04-29-2010, 09:30 AM
Coats is definitely gonna damage the Republican Party image... former Senator turned Lobbyist...

Hostettler is needed badly. Even Stutzman would be better than Coats.

AuH20
04-29-2010, 09:31 AM
Maybe Hoss can run into 2 more years to challenge Lugar? If he hitches his wagon to us, we can raise him oodles of cash if we're given proper time to organize.

itshappening
04-29-2010, 09:32 AM
the leader polling at 35%, if John could advertise he would win this easily

he needs to get all the free media he can and hope for a big vote. if he pulls this off it will be huge !

John Taylor
04-29-2010, 09:37 AM
Maybe Hoss can run into 2 more years to challenge Lugar? If he hitches his wagon to us, we can raise him oodles of cash if we're given proper time to organize.

Lugar may not run, but he'd have a massive money edge if he does... and the establishment would likely run one of their own well-funded hacks.

I'm just sorry to see the guy who voted for the biggest tax increase in decades in Indiana supported by Jim DeMint...

JohnG
04-29-2010, 09:38 AM
Stutzman must out or this is over. Now granted, many people vote for an "also-ran" in the polls just to make a statement, but on election day they end up voting for a viable candidate. So there is a chance. But it isn't big.

AuH20
04-29-2010, 09:41 AM
Did anyone see the debate last week? Hostettler is more or less, an extremely bright Constitutional scholar. The man's depth of knowledge with regard to the Federalist Papers and other thoughts of the founders is extremely impressive. Stutzman when compared to Hostettler really comes off lackluster in that regard. He's not nearly as polished, knowledgable or articulate.

Odin
04-29-2010, 10:12 AM
I'm not sure how reliable the poll is. My gut tells me that Coats is lower and Stutzman and Behney are higher. With 5 candidates this is a dynamic race, it's not over by any means.

MRoCkEd
04-29-2010, 10:15 AM
I'm not sure how reliable the poll is. My gut tells me that Coats is lower and Stutzman and Behney are higher. With 5 candidates this is a dynamic race, it's not over by any means.
Yeah.. Host is known for making surprise wins. Hopefully that happens.

Melissa
04-29-2010, 10:17 AM
I just got this video about Stutzman pretty scary answers to constitutional questions

YouTube - The True Stutzman (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YXMDw6qeXM)

sofia
04-29-2010, 10:31 AM
this nonsense about winning elections with less than 50% has to stop. It allows the Establishment to play games and run phony third candidates like Stultzman to dilute the anti-Establishment vote.

There must be runoffs of the top two so that someone gets 51%...

Same shit gonna happen in Florida. Not that I'm a Rubio fan, but Crist may very well win with 40% of the vote....

Thats how Woodrow Wilson got in also. Teddy Roosevelt ran third party and screwed Taf out of re-election.

itshappening
04-29-2010, 10:35 AM
we have to trust the good people of Indiana will not send Coats back to the Senate and will recognize Hostettler

If we had more time Sofia could have spread false rumors of Stutzman dropping out via mailers. That would have been interesting but the bastards haven't given us any polling on this race until NOW, they want to slip Coats in under the radar because they know the seat is for the taking in a Republican year and will have a reliable Establishment yes man in Coats.

Eroberer
04-29-2010, 10:36 AM
They should do it like in Texas with a run-off election

itshappening
04-29-2010, 10:39 AM
if Hostettler has a bomb he needs to drop it NOW, surely there must be some scandal involving Coats or something that can swing it for Hostettler

Maybe we should bombard IN Radio stations? anyone got their numbers? erowe1, is there anything we can do in the final few days...

Brian4Liberty
04-29-2010, 11:08 AM
this nonsense about winning elections with less than 50% has to stop.

I like that idea. Isn't there some kind of "instant run-off" that allows that to happen in a single ballot?

If Stutzman supporters are truly opposed to Coats, they will vote for Hostettler. They can make that run-off vote right now, and consider this a run-off race between Coats and Hostettler. Stutzman just isn't going to win this one.

Brian4Liberty
04-29-2010, 11:11 AM
I'm not sure how reliable the poll is.

I would like to know if the people who took this poll have any kind of reputation? Is this a one-off shill poll?

Badger Paul
04-29-2010, 11:11 AM
Although it doesn't say it, this is acutally a good result for Hostettler. First of all he's second without having done any media (although he has radio ads now going up) whereas with all the money Stulzman and Coats have had , they haven't exactly run away with the race. Stulzman has not supplanted Hostettler among the Tea Parties and Hostettler reportedly has a good grassroots operation. If the turnout is low except for Hostettler's base in southern Indiana, he's got a chance.

John Taylor
04-29-2010, 11:14 AM
Although it doesn't say it, this is acutally a good result for Hostettler. First of all he's second without having done any media (although he has radio ads now going up) whereas with all the money Stulzman and Coats have had , they haven't exactly run away with the race. Stulzman has not supplanted Hostettler among the Tea Parties and Hostettler reportedly has a good grassroots operation. If the turnout is low except for Hostettler's base in southern Indiana, he's got a chance.

Yeah, and we need to hope Marlin doesn't pull even with Hoss... we need Hoss to be in the position to say "hey, Coats is going to win this unless you guys come over to me, the guy in second."

Badger Paul
04-29-2010, 11:19 AM
Exactly. Stulzman has raised more money, has run TV ads and yet he only has 18 percent. What does that tell you? Hoss has no media up until this week and yet he's in second and the favorite and the candidate with the most name recognition is only pulling 36 percent.

I like our chances.

Odin
04-29-2010, 12:22 PM
I would like to know if the people who took this poll have any kind of reputation? Is this a one-off shill poll?

I think it is a one-off shill poll from the university of something or other. Such polls always exaggerate support for the more mainstream, centrist candidate. Obviously its unscientific, but if I had to guess my gut says Coats at 30, Hostettler 25, Stutzman 20, Behney 10, Bates Jr 5. Another 10% or so undecided.

This is still a dynamic race with 5 candidates, anything really can happen.

I just don't get how people can vote for Coats though. The guy brags about the 2 term limit oath he "honored," even though he's back running for third term! Last I checked oaths don't expire after a decade. What a doofus.

John Taylor
04-29-2010, 12:27 PM
I think it is a one-off shill poll from the university of something or other. Such polls always exaggerate support for the more mainstream, centrist candidate. Obviously its unscientific, but if I had to guess my gut says Coats at 30, Hostettler 25, Stutzman 20, Behney 10, Bates Jr 5. Another 10% or so undecided.

This is still a dynamic race with 5 candidates, anything really can happen.

I just don't get how people can vote for Coats though. The guy brags about the 2 term limit oath he "honored," even though he's back running for third term! Last I checked oaths don't expire after a decade. What a doofus.

I love gut feelings, but after eating for 3 1/2 hours at the Mongolian BBQ, I really regretted it.

johnrocks
04-29-2010, 12:36 PM
The election is May 4th, I hope that Hostettler can pull off a miracle but I'm not feeling good about this one.

AuH20
04-29-2010, 12:39 PM
The election is May 4th, I hope that Hostettler can pull off a miracle but I'm not feeling good about this one.

If Stutzman, Bates and Behney were AWOL, Hoss could win this. They're bleeding votes from him.

itshappening
04-30-2010, 05:17 AM
Exactly. Stulzman has raised more money, has run TV ads and yet he only has 18 percent. What does that tell you? Hoss has no media up until this week and yet he's in second and the favorite and the candidate with the most name recognition is only pulling 36 percent.

I like our chances.

Yes it's very possible Hostettler can scrape it on election day, it all depends what the voters decide. I think most of them will go with the name they know (Coats) though, that's the problem.

I PRAY they get behind Hostettler and decide to send him back but the Stutzman character is ruining it for us which I think is the idea

Badger Paul
04-30-2010, 10:19 AM
"it's very possible Hostettler can scrape it on election day, it all depends what the voters decide. I think most of them will go with the name they know (Coats) though, that's the problem."

I think if that was true, the Coats should be further out in front than he is because he has the highest name recognition. And yet only 36 percent of likely Republican voters want him to serve another term. Again it will come down to turnout and one thing one on Hostettler's side, his supporters will show up at the polls. The rest will divide up the regular Republican vote.

nate895
04-30-2010, 11:33 AM
Hostettler being a former congressman has the highest name recognition outside of Coats, I'd guess. The good thing about being second in this situation is that the "undecided" folks often split your way massively since they are often opposed to the front runner, but unwilling to commit to anyone else. I'm just afraid that those votes won't be enough, or that they will split for Stutzman since he has more ads on the air. However, this is a university poll, and those polls are a dime-a-dozen with the least reflection on reality.