UK General Election

[nate895]

I watched about 45 minutes of the second leaders' debate last night (they had it on FNC), and I have to say that it would really suck to be offered those choices. They all were supportive of increasing government, and all were in favor of supporting their overseas adventurism to varying degrees. The Lib-Dems were the best on that point, but Clegg then immediately insulted eurosceptics and so-called "climate change-deniers." At one point, I thought he was going to call David Cameron a holocaust-denier and racist for being slightly eurosceptic. Then Gordon Brown was just up there sticking to mantra about increasing jobs, which was almost almost like Giuliani going back to 9/11 no matter the question. I hope the UKIP does a lot better than the polls are suggesting, and I really hope the Lib-Dems' vote share decreases just enough so that the UKIP can hold a balance to force the Tories to act a little more conservative.

Results link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/default.stm

[John Taylor]

i watched about 45 minutes of the second leaders' debate last night (they had it on fnc), and i have to say that it would really suck to be offered those choices. They all were supportive of increasing government, and all were in favor of supporting their overseas adventurism to varying degrees. The lib-dems were the best on that point, but clegg then immediately insulted eurosceptics and so-called "climate change-deniers." at one point, i thought he was going to call david cameron a holocaust-denier and racist for being slightly eurosceptic. Then gordon brown was just up there sticking to mantra about increasing jobs, which was almost almost like giuliani going back to 9/11 no matter the question. I hope the ukip does a lot better than the polls are suggesting, and i really hope the lib-dems' vote share decreases just enough so that the ukip can hold a balance to force the tories to act a little more conservative.

+1776.

[TCE]

There is a libertarian wing of the Conservative Party, it's small, but it's there. Daniel Hannan is the biggest known in the European Parliament. UKIP is obviously the best choice, but in UK politics, it will take then 100 years to get more than 40 seats.

[nate895]

There is a libertarian wing of the Conservative Party, it's small, but it's there. Daniel Hannan is the biggest known. UKIP is obviously the best choice, but in UK politics, it will take then 100 years to get more than 40 seats.

Or they could be as successful as the Lib-Dems have been. They do get much of the vote in the European Elections.

I know there is a libertarian element in the Conservative Party, but last leadership election that element lost 2:1 when David Cameron beat David Davis. The UK is a lot more friendly to third (fourth?) parties than the US. They have a lot smaller legislative districts, and a totally different attitude towards minor parties.

[Odin]

It would be good for UKIP I think if the Lib Dems get a lot of seats because the Lib Dems will push for proportional representation and give the control of parliament to whichever party offers it to them. That would lead many people to vote for the UKIP party instead of the Conservative party in future elections. Though of course there are downsides.

[TCE]

Or they could be as successful as the Lib-Dems have been. They do get much of the vote in the European Elections.

I know there is a libertarian element in the Conservative Party, but last leadership election that element lost 2:1 when David Cameron beat David Davis. The UK is a lot more friendly to third (fourth?) parties than the US. They have a lot smaller legislative districts, and a totally different attitude towards minor parties.

This is of course true, but that's because we have one of the most unfriendly system in the world for third parties. The Liberal Democrats don't have any say in the process. Labour can run over them and think nothing of it.

On the whole, the British Parliament won't mean much in a few years anyway with the EU gaining so much power.

[nate895]

It would be good for UKIP I think if the Lib Dems get a lot of seats because the Lib Dems will push for proportional representation and give the control of parliament to whichever party offers it to them. That would lead many people to vote for the UKIP party instead of the Conservative party in future elections. Though of course there are downsides.

Never looked at it that way before, but I think that would lead to more dominance of the liberal parties in the future. Labour and the Lib-Dems combined get over 50% for the most recent elections.

[nate895]

This is of course true, but that's because we have one of the most unfriendly system in the world for third parties. The Liberal Democrats don't have any say in the process. Labour can run over them and think nothing of it.

On the whole, the British Parliament won't mean much in a few years anyway with the EU gaining so much power.

That's what needs to be stopped. Only a Conservative-UKIP coalition has the possibility to stop that, no matter how unlikely that situation is.

[Odin]

Never looked at it that way before, but I think that would lead to more dominance of the liberal parties in the future. Labour and the Lib-Dems combined get over 50% for the most recent elections.

Yeah but the lib dems are a lot more economically/fiscally conservative than labour, and you have to remember that their percentages of the vote are distorted by the fact that they don't have proportional representation yet. The whole dynamic would likely change. I don't know exactly what would happen though.

[NewFederalist]

Why go for the lesser of THREE evils? UKIP is standing in more than enough constituencies to win a majority. The Tories are disgusting. They are like the Republicans. Too bad the Libertarians are only contesting 5 constituencies. I guess not too many want to lose their deposits!

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

I'd be voting UKIP if I were a British citizen, or maybe for one of the regional nationalist parties (Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, etc.). Of the three bad choices, the Lib Dems would do the least damage. Their leader Nick Clegg is the most likely to support ending British participation in the wars. He's also spoken about allowing a referendum on the EU issue, which could be good for EU skeptics.

The best result that can be hoped for is a Lib Dem plurality with minor parties getting seats across the board. I hope the UKIP, BNP, regional parties, and RESPECT all pick up some seats.

[NewFederalist]

Right now it looks like the LibDems will end up with about 100 seats and the Tories will be the largest party but well short of a majority. Even with the Ulster Unionists added in they appear to be well short right now. Clegg has already ruled out a coalition government but perhaps if a deal was offered which included electoral reform of the first past the post system he could be persuaded. Presently there do not appear to be any constituencies where UKIP or any other minor parties other than SNP or Plaid Crymu look likely to win.

[Cowlesy]

Britain, the ultimate failboat. Slowly but surely sinking.

[Odin]

Right now it looks like the LibDems will end up with about 100 seats and the Tories will be the largest party but well short of a majority. Even with the Ulster Unionists added in they appear to be well short right now. Clegg has already ruled out a coalition government but perhaps if a deal was offered which included electoral reform of the first past the post system he could be persuaded. Presently there do not appear to be any constituencies where UKIP or any other minor parties other than SNP or Plaid Crymu look likely to win.

Who would become Prime Minister in this case?

[nate895]

Who would become Prime Minister in this case?

It would be a minority government led by Cameron. It probably wouldn't last long. Minority governments only last a while in countries that are used to it. That being said, I don't like the projections in UK parliamentary elections. They assume a uniform swing from last election, and when was the last time you actually saw a uniform swing? Especially with this new dynamic entering into British politics, a uniform swing has about a nil chance of happening. We'll have to wait for election night to figure out what happened in individual constituencies.

[NewFederalist]

I don't like the projections in UK parliamentary elections. They assume a uniform swing from last election, and when was the last time you actually saw a uniform swing? Especially with this new dynamic entering into British politics, a uniform swing has about a nil chance of happening. We'll have to wait for election night to figure out what happened in individual constituencies.

I completely agree. There is NO scenario that allows for the Greens to win the Brighton Pavillion constituency despite the fact they are going all out to win the seat. The traditional "swingometer" stuff is likely to miss on several races. Having said that, however, I still have not found any constituencies where the UKIP has a realistic shot.

[Inkblots]

Having said that, however, I still have not found any constituencies where the UKIP has a realistic shot.

I had been given to believe that Nigel Farage had a fair shot in Buckingham.

[free1]

You know you are a subject class citizen when your "leader" says "we will give you that right", talking about allowing you to recall a politician.

And on top of that, if the "wanker" was really going to do that, don't you think 13 years was enough time for him to do it?

The poor UK people are really screwed.

One of them offered "free TV", and I thought Americans were stupid.

[erowe1]

it would really suck to be offered those choices. They all were supportive of increasing government, and all were in favor of supporting their overseas adventurism to varying degrees.

Yeah. It would really suck to be offered those choices.

Oh, wait.

[Mattsa]

I watched about 45 minutes of the second leaders' debate last night (they had it on FNC), and I have to say that it would really suck to be offered those choices. They all were supportive of increasing government, and all were in favor of supporting their overseas adventurism to varying degrees. The Lib-Dems were the best on that point, but Clegg then immediately insulted eurosceptics and so-called "climate change-deniers." At one point, I thought he was going to call David Cameron a holocaust-denier and racist for being slightly eurosceptic. Then Gordon Brown was just up there sticking to mantra about increasing jobs, which was almost almost like Giuliani going back to 9/11 no matter the question. I hope the UKIP does a lot better than the polls are suggesting, and I really hope the Lib-Dems' vote share decreases just enough so that the UKIP can hold a balance to force the Tories to act a little more conservative.

Spaeking as a Brit who is stuck in the UK because US immigration wont let me into the US to be with my wife, I can summarize the political debate in the UK in a single word

BULLSHIT!

All of of

A staged charade. The conservative party is a joke. They are Fabians (social engineers, scientific socialists).

The British are absolutely stuffed

Which is why I'm so desperate to get outta here! AAAARRRGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!! :confused:

[nate895]

I completely agree. There is NO scenario that allows for the Greens to win the Brighton Pavillion constituency despite the fact they are going all out to win the seat. The traditional "swingometer" stuff is likely to miss on several races. Having said that, however, I still have not found any constituencies where the UKIP has a realistic shot.

The UKIP's problem is that its vote seems to be equally distributed around most England. The only place that I can find where they really stick out is in Northern England. Hopefully that has changed since last time and there are a couple of constituencies where they have a shot. It seems the UKIP does better when it has the opportunity to focus in on a seat, or when there is proportional representation. What the UKIP needs to do is to win a couple of seats and hope for any sort of hung parliament and call for new elections within the next year, hopefully with them in the debates since they have shown that they can also win House of Commons seats outside of by-elections.

[nate895]

Spaeking as a Brit who is stuck in the UK because US immigration wont let me into the US to be with my wife, I can summarize the political debate in the UK in a single word

BULLSHIT!

All of of

A staged charade. The conservative party is a joke. They are Fabians (social engineers, scientific socialists).

The British are absolutely stuffed

Which is why I'm so desperate to get outta here! AAAARRRGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!! :confused:

Why won't immigration let you immigrate to be with your wife?

[NewFederalist]

The UKIP's problem is that its vote seems to be equally distributed around most England. The only place that I can find where they really stick out is in Northern England. Hopefully that has changed since last time and there are a couple of constituencies where they have a shot. It seems the UKIP does better when it has the opportunity to focus in on a seat, or when there is proportional representation. What the UKIP needs to do is to win a couple of seats and hope for any sort of hung parliament and call for new elections within the next year, hopefully with them in the debates since they have shown that they can also win House of Commons seats outside of by-elections.

I agree. They have MEPs because of proportional repersentation. They might win an election to fill a vacancy because it is a different set of variables than a general election. They have a couple of peers because two Tories changed parties in the House of Lords. It would be nice if they could win a seat or two in Westminster.

[Mattsa]

Why won't immigration let you immigrate to be with your wife?

not enough liquid assets

[Inkblots]

Election fevah! :D

YouTube - Yahoo! UK Elections 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxwBzgO7YsM)

As many videos as I've seen exposing the embarrassing ignorance of American voters, I suppose it's some small comfort that our British cousins are much the same.

[nate895]

Elections are tomorrow (or later today GMT). Last polls I saw showed Tories with a solid lead, with Labour and LD competing for second, and "other" with 9%, which I hope includes quite a few UKIP votes.

[american.swan]

I like proportional. How many UKIP MEPs are there?

[nate895]

I like proportional. How many UKIP MEPs are there?

13

Edit: The only thing I dislike about proportional representation (and the Westminster system to a lesser extent) is that it gives party establishments too much power. Independents are nearly impossible to elect, and the party establishment selects which candidates will be their representatives.

[american.swan]

13

Edit: The only thing I dislike about proportional representation (and the Westminster system to a lesser extent) is that it gives party establishments too much power. Independents are nearly impossible to elect, and the party establishment selects which candidates will be their representatives.

In reality that may be the case and I would agree that isn't good. Let's do something else though. What about have a "primary" election where voters can vote for their representatives. Then use proportional in the general. The proportional seats would be giving to the primary candidates with the most votes first.

[Imperial]

I used to like UKIP alot. However, they lately have done some things that I didn't like. For one, they have had a civil war and attempted to expel one of their MEPs simply because she pointed out they are working with some unsavory chaps in the European Parliament and chose to vote on her own. Now they are running someone against her for MP despite the fact she is still a euroskeptic. What is worst is alot of this seems to be coming from the top, Nigel Farage himself.

Then you have the UKIP leader, Lord Pearson, who called for a burka ban (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8659445.stm)in Britain.

And there seems to be little cohesity in the party besides euroskepticism. Like this guy (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/england/8660823.stm) wanting to blow up Iran.

Their platform seems unrealistic. They want to invest in infrastructure and make big military expansions but cut lots of taxes.

I dunno. They have some good but they have alot of work to do in my book.

[marc1888]

I voted for the SNP :-)

[Shotdown1027]

Right now it looks like the LibDems will end up with about 100 seats and the Tories will be the largest party but well short of a majority. Even with the Ulster Unionists added in they appear to be well short right now. Clegg has already ruled out a coalition government but perhaps if a deal was offered which included electoral reform of the first past the post system he could be persuaded. Presently there do not appear to be any constituencies where UKIP or any other minor parties other than SNP or Plaid Crymu look likely to win.

This is false. The current speaker is in the race of his life against Nigel Farrage--the leader of UKIP--and the odds are that Farrage has a decent shot at picking it up. The Green Party is also likely to win Brighton Pavillion. The BNP has a good shot at one seat too.

[Shotdown1027]

I agree. They have MEPs because of proportional repersentation. They might win an election to fill a vacancy because it is a different set of variables than a general election. They have a couple of peers because two Tories changed parties in the House of Lords. It would be nice if they could win a seat or two in Westminster.

UKIP doesn't only have MEPs because of proportional representation. It is also because they are perceived as the most reliably Euro-skeptic party and in European elections the English have supported them more. In domestic elections, though, they are unlikely to compete for more than one seat (Buckingham, Nigel Farrage).

[Shotdown1027]

13

Edit: The only thing I dislike about proportional representation (and the Westminster system to a lesser extent) is that it gives party establishments too much power. Independents are nearly impossible to elect, and the party establishment selects which candidates will be their representatives.

13 of England's 74 seats. Not at all bad.

[Shotdown1027]

I used to like UKIP alot. However, they lately have done some things that I didn't like. For one, they have had a civil war and attempted to expel one of their MEPs simply because she pointed out they are working with some unsavory chaps in the European Parliament and chose to vote on her own. Now they are running someone against her for MP despite the fact she is still a euroskeptic. What is worst is alot of this seems to be coming from the top, Nigel Farage himself.

Then you have the UKIP leader, Lord Pearson, who called for a burka ban (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8659445.stm)in Britain.

And there seems to be little cohesity in the party besides euroskepticism. Like this guy (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/england/8660823.stm) wanting to blow up Iran.

Their platform seems unrealistic. They want to invest in infrastructure and make big military expansions but cut lots of taxes.

I dunno. They have some good but they have alot of work to do in my book.


This is a function of UKIP being so young, I think. The LP had similar problems in its first 6 years or so. Hell, the LP still has those problems. Look at Sonny Landham, the US Senate candidate for the LP in Kentucky in 2006, or the current Wyoming Gubernatorial candidate, or the Montana US Senate candidate who turned himself blue by taking colloidial silver. UKIP aint perfect, but capturing 17.5% of the MEP seats in England is not at all bad. I suspect they'll score roughly 6-7% of the vote in the election today--which will hopefully be good enough to pick up at least one MP.

[eok321]

farage in a plane crash-party banner caught in the engine apparently

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8664549.stm

[fatjohn]

farage in a plane crash-party banner caught in the engine apparently

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8664549.stm

Luckily not life threathening but still very sad :(

[tangent4ronpaul]

As expected - it sounds like who ever gets in - it will be BAD! (as expected) - what? - you expected a REAL CHOICE?????

This election is irrelevent in any other than the perspective of "how bad will the ANOINTED one be"?

-t

[NewFederalist]

The UKIP aint perfect, but capturing 17.5% of the MEP seats in England is not at all bad. I suspect they'll score roughly 6-7% of the vote in the election today--which will hopefully be good enough to pick up at least one MP.

I hope you are right. If they poll 6 or 7% that would be the lion's share of the "other" vote according to the final polls. I've seen nothing above 10% for parties other than Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems. I believe that includes the nationalists so a 6-7% showing would be outstanding.

[nate895]

Election Results:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/default.stm

Looks like the Conservatives are doing about as expected. If you'd notice, the UKIP has more than doubled its vote share in the constituencies so far reporting as of this time.

[Inflation]

Broooooon!!!

http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/129165421893832681.jpg

[nate895]

Ummm....I was just looking around at the UKIP candidates in some of the constituencies surrounding Buckingham to see if they're doing well (better than average, but still single digits), and I found out that one of the candidates was Nikolai Tolstoy, who is the chancellor of the International Monarchist League. He opposed none other than David Cameron in the Witney constituency.

[Imperial]

A Green Party candidate just took the seat at Brighton Pavilion.

Nigel Farage's results should be coming in in a few hours. Overall, the minor parties have upped their vote totals copared to the last election.

[nate895]

A Green Party candidate just took the seat at Brighton Pavilion.

Nigel Farage's results should be coming in in a few hours. Overall, the minor parties have upped their vote totals copared to the last election.

Most of the vote gains for the minor parties are to right-wing minor parties as well. The UKIP and BNP make almost the entire "other" vote gain. Most other minor parties lost vote share. I just looked up the constituency you just mentioned, and it looks like the guy who came in second to last was representing the "Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality" Party.

I think Conservatives might just be able to take the majority with the help of the DUP if things go as right for them as it has on my ticker. They need about 1/2 of the outstanding seats, and that's what they're winning. They'll probably be able to at least form a very stable minority government.

[NewFederalist]

Nigel Farage came in a distant third with only about 17% of the vote.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

UKIP and BNP combined increased their votes and got about 5%. Although none of the minor "right wing" parties won seats, it's not a bad showing for them, and the votes are only going up.