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View Full Version : Economic apocalypse... what if nothing had been done?




surf
04-21-2010, 01:05 PM
sorry to take up space with this, but i'm looking for an analysis of some kind written about - what would have happened if no TARP, no bail-out of Wall St., GM, etc?

reason is that i continue to discuss this with folks that really believe that the Fed and Congress prevented Armageddon by their actions. the Wall Street friends i still have inevitably say that "they had to do something" or else the economy would have really been in the shitter.

long-story short, i'm looking for a thoughtful analysis of what the economy would be doing had [Obama and McCain not suspended their campaigns] TARP and the other bailouts not occured.

thanks in advance

Linus
04-21-2010, 01:07 PM
The corporations would have turned the people against the government.

MelissaWV
04-21-2010, 01:11 PM
sorry to take up space with this, but i'm looking for an analysis of some kind written about - what would have happened if no TARP, no bail-out of Wall St., GM, etc?

reason is that i continue to discuss this with folks that really believe that the Fed and Congress prevented Armageddon by their actions. the Wall Street friends i still have inevitably say that "they had to do something" or else the economy would have really been in the shitter.

long-story short, i'm looking for a thoughtful analysis of what the economy would be doing had [Obama and McCain not suspended their campaigns] TARP and the other bailouts not occured.

thanks in advance

The short answer is that we'd still be up a creek, but we'd see different scenery and we'd have a little less debt.

It's true that some of the current recovery is directly the result of those stilumus programs, but they are temporary bandaging on a gaping wound. The jobs are not permanent (many of them are Census-related and, as far as I know, the Census was going to happen regardless of stimulus money). There were little jolts in certain markets (Cash for Clunkers, Housing Credit). The overall problem has not been fixed, and the return on the "investment" of all this money is not consistent with the amount of time/money spent.

emazur
04-21-2010, 01:22 PM
John Williams of Shadowstats stated there would have been a deflationary depression w/o the bailouts, not that he means bailing out the banks was the better option.

Bernanke says there would have been a recession:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/bernanke-recession-likely-if-no-bailout/
Isn't that funny?

surf
04-21-2010, 03:35 PM
shameless bump. thanks for responding. i'm still looking for something written and posted online postulating on what would have happened if nothing had been done.

thanks.

TheBlackPeterSchiff
04-21-2010, 03:51 PM
We would have had a swift deflationary depression, but a real recovery.

Check out the Recession of 1920

invisible
04-21-2010, 03:53 PM
Ron Paul has mentioned in various interviews (sorry, no link - there have been many of them) that the results would be similar to the recession of 1920-1. Surely you can find something written about this easily enough. Put the historical facts together with Ron Paul's statements, and you should have what you're looking for. If you're trying to educate someone, it would probably be helpful to also demonstrate that Ron was correct in predicting the current economic conditions, etc.