Will the GOP Split into 2 parties by 2020?

[bobbyw24]

The Republican Party will split in two. You cannot put everyone right of center into one party. Not many will claim that ACLU left-libertarians would go well with Socialist Party left-statists. Why should one expect Bush/Cheney right-statists to go with Collin Powell right-centrists and Ron Paul libertarians? It could be that Sarah Palin becomes the new face of the party, and the libertarians and centrists create a "New Republican" Party.

Or Ron Paul becomes the new face of the party and the neocons create a new "Tea Party." The chart below uses the assumption that both parties break off (forcing the old Republicans to dissolve) and the Democratic Party becomes socialistic.

http://www.nolanchart.com/article7593.html

[Aratus]

REFORMED G.O.P WHIG verses AULD REPUBLICAN TORY ...?
the 1850s G.O.P began in the ashes of the WHIG PARTY...!

[Aratus]

so far... from what i can see, Rand Paul has high odds of being on the 2016 and/or 2020 GOP ticket...
likewise i expect to see Liberals, Centrists and Conservatives running for public office as Republicans...

[timosman]

Ah, this Rand Paul, he is such a divisive figure ! I am not sure if we are ready to have a guy like that in the office.

[acptulsa]

We had better be.

We're running out of time to divide ourselves from the road to ruin we're on.

[r3volution 3.0]

To the OP's point, I don't think the GOP will ever split on the initiative of the establishment types. Their whole purpose is to lead conservatives astray. If they were out there on there own, openly hostile to a newly-independent conservative party, they couldn't do that. On the other hand, a split initiated by conservatives is possible, if we remain in the minority, keep being subjected to Bushes, McCains, Romneys and...more Bushes, and smarten up a bit - but I'd give it very low odds. Most likely, we either take control of a unified GOP or we fail, and that's that.

I have high hopes for Rand this time around, but if he loses, his chances in 2020 - after Bush loses to Hillary - will be even better.

N.B. I would add that we should try hard to avoid that "all or nothing," "the world ends if we lose," mentality that many of us (myself included to some extent) adopted during Ron's campaigns. That's good for a little extra motivation during the campaign, but at the risk of sending people into despair and driving them out of the movement if we should lose. Gotta pace ourselves.

Also, on an even more grim note, gotta come to terms with the possibility that we will ultimately fail - and be willing to fight the good fight regardless, for the principle of the thing. "Let it not be said we did nothing," you know.

[wizardwatson]

Man, you guys sure have a lot of long-term optimism for civil order in this country. Barring my imminent apocalyptic predilections you do realize the global financial economy is about to implode, right?

[Aratus]

i'm slightly more optimistic than acptulsa

[wizardwatson]

i'm slightly more optimistic than acptulsa

Just saying...

If you live in California for instance you need to be thinking about finding water to drink, probably main priority.

[Aratus]

as 1939 turned into 1940, much of the Dust Bowl areas went back to normal.
it has been about 75 years since the massive clouds of dust traveled across
several states. if there is any legitimate reason at all to be alarmed over
global warming, this is it --- we don't know why the Dust Bowl went away.
yes, when I'm in a pessimistic mood i take climate change and global warming
seriously. i'm afraid the drought in California is part of a pattern and is not
simply an isolated event. i see few ideas taken seriously that seek to reduce
our debt. myself, i see not of a difference between dr. ron and senator rand.

[cindy25]

so far... from what i can see, Rand Paul has high odds of being on the 2016 and/or 2020 GOP ticket...
likewise i expect to see Liberals, Centrists and Conservatives running for public office as Republicans...

2016, there is a reasonable chance of Rand winning. but 2016 is it. 2020 will be most likely be a GOP president seeking re-election, based on the 8 year cycle that predominated since WWII.

Trump could also run 3rd party, and be viable. it could easily be similar to 1912.

[Ronin Truth]

I thought that it already had.

GOP and GOP-lite (LP).

[Aratus]

Sorta like BUD and Bud-Lite?