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rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 07:27 AM
The race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination began at CPAC in February. We know this because of the torrent of vitriol against Ron Paul that gushed forth over the internet after his straw poll victory. Nearly everything that was thrown at him during the 2008 campaign returned with a vengeance, only compressed into about one week's worth of blogging, editorializing and talk show ranting. But after that first week, all mention of CPAC suddenly vanished. Everyone seemed satisfied with the conclusion that CPAC was a fluke--that Ron Paul had "packed the convention" with libertarians, teenagers and gays, and that there was no way he could do it again at the SRLC, which, as everyone agreed, would be the real test of who is a serious contender for 2012. Furthermore, it was just too early to matter--the presidential race hadn't really begun, which of course was a lie.

Nearly every candidate tried to pack CPAC. Mitt Romney certainly tried, as he had done the previous three years with much greater success. The only difference is that this year, thanks to a conservative base increasingly radicalized for freedom by an overreaching Obama administration, Ron Paul was able to do the best job of packing CPAC by exploiting a new favorable political environment. No Paulite claims that 31% of the Republican electorate is now in Ron Paul's camp. But neither does anyone believe that Mitt Romney's support is three times that of Sarah Palin, who received a measly 7% to Romney's 22%. Obviously, Mitt did his own convention packing--it just wasn't as good as Ron's.

But the consensus among the pundit class is that Ron Paul's CPAC victory was a fluke, and therefore that the straw poll was a false start for the 2012 presidential race. The new starting line is now the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this weekend. And that is why Ron Paul must win the straw poll.

If Ron Paul does win the SRLC straw poll, the response from the pundit class will be exactly the same. Ron Paul will have been the only candidate to "pack the convention" again, the straw poll will have been rendered meaningless, it will be declared another false start to the presidential race, and a new starting line will be announced (perhaps the Values Voter Summit in September?). The difference is that the conventional wisdom on Ron's upset victory will be half as convincing to the public as it was last time, because they will have been twice assured that Ron Paul was just a sideshow, and yet twice he stole the show. Another bump in the polls will follow, just like after CPAC, as Republican voters become a little less ashamed to tell pollsters that they just might prefer Ron Paul over any of the other impostors for small-government. Rinse and repeat at the next straw poll. Before long, Ron Paul will be the only candidate running, and therefore the front-runner by default, in a presidential race that everyone insists has not yet begun. By the time they finally admit that the race is on, Ron Paul will already have a nice lead.

What happens if Ron Paul does not win the SRLC straw poll? First of all, anything other than a first place finish will be utterly dismissed. I'm confident that Ron Paul will have a very respectable showing in the straw poll by any objective standards, but that won't be good enough. Even when Ron Paul won first place at CPAC, the brazen Fox News analysts trumpeted Romney's huge lead over Sarah Palin as the "real story here" (which he somehow accomplished, of course, without even the teensy-weensiest bit of convention-packing that the Ronulans engaged in), leaving his crushing defeat by Ron Paul as a footnote.

So "winning" at SRLC means coming out on top in the straw poll. Actually, it means winning by more than a full percentage point, because any less of a lead will be declared a "tie", and the "real story" will be about whoever "tied" with him.

If Ron Paul's supporters fail to accomplish this for him, the conventional wisdom will have been proven correct to the public. The fact that other presidential candidates planned their convention-packing for months, while Ron Paul was only recently invited to the SRLC will not matter at all. April 10 will be declared the beginning of the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, whoever won the straw poll will be declared the front-runner, Ron Paul will be back to quixotic dark horse status, PPP will drop him from their top tier of presidential polling (a position I believe he attained only because of his CPAC victory), and the Ron Paul blackout will have begun afresh.

Furthermore, as much as I hate to admit it, I'll have to seriously question whether Ron Paul has any better of a chance at winning the Republican nomination in 2012 than he did in 2008. More importantly, Ron Paul himself will have to be asking the same question. This stage of the race is Ron Paul's sweet spot: It is dominated by straw polls that are small enough to be won by ardent factions of the Republican Party, but large enough to attract major headlines. The SRLC straw poll is as good as it's going to get for us. If we can't win this for Ron Paul, then how can we possibly win the Ames, Iowa straw poll in 2011, which has 10 times the turnout? And if we can't win the Ames straw poll, how can we win the Iowa caucus, which is several times larger still? And if we can't win the Iowa caucus, how can we win any primary? Each of these polls is practice for the next, and if we fail at any one of them, then Ron Paul immediately falls back to where he started. Such is not the grim reality for all candidates, but it is for Ron Paul, who as we know, is in a special class of his own, where Fox News' arbitrary definitions of electability ("Do you have any?") shape reality.

While the straw poll faze of the presidential race is the most favorable for Ron Paul, it is also the most favorable for all of the other underdog candidates as well. Losing the SRLC straw poll, or any of the upcoming straw polls, means an opportunity for one of the middle or lower-tier candidates like Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty or Haley Barbour to grab headlines and demonstrate their electability, just as Mike Huckabee did by coming in second at the Ames, Iowa straw poll in 2007. We cannot allow that to happen. Ron Paul must monopolize the position in the race as the novel alternative candidate with the potential to threaten the front-runners in Iowa and New Hampshire. As soon as Gingrich, Pawlenty or Barbour wins a straw poll, that's all the pundits will talk about--Ron Paul will be instantly displaced. To maximize Ron's chances of winning the race, we must keep the race between him and the same old worn-out empty suits he ran against last time.

If we fail to make the SRLC a success for Ron Paul, Campaign for Liberty will be far less inclined to invest so much in the next straw poll. Ron Paul might be less inclined to venture in front of more hostile audiences than the university campuses he has grown comfortable with, meaning the kind of aggressive outreach by the official campaign that is necessary to win a caucus or primary will not happen any more than it did in 2008. Ron Paul supporters will be less persuaded that he can win the next straw poll and that sacrificing a weekend is worth their time. In short, the early momentum established by CPAC will be lost.

We therefore cannot let Ron Paul lose this straw poll. We need to treat it with the same zeal that drove the Christmas break canvassing in Iowa or Operation Live Free or Die in New Hampshire for the 2008 race. If you are attending the SRLC, then take the next couple days to become the biggest pain in the ass to your friends and relatives you can be until one more of them agrees to come with you and vote for Ron. And once you get to New Orleans, vote, and then don't return to the convention until you've found at least one stranger in Harrah's casino who is willing to be dragged to the convention for half an hour to vote for Ron Paul. In fact, don't stop canvassing at the casino until Campaign for Liberty runs out of free tickets to give away. Tell those gamblers that unless Ron Paul wins the presidency in 2012, their favorite pastime may not be legal the next time they visit the Big Easy.

If you are not attending the convention, then why not? Are you saving your radical sacrifice for the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary, by which time if Ron Paul has not been the straw poll champion all along, the blackout will have already firmly settled over his campaign as it did in 2008? Don't wait for it to be too late. We never enjoyed this stage of the race that favors ardent factions like ours last time around, and it would be an utter shame to let it pass us by again.

If everyone does go all out, there's no way Ron Paul can lose the straw poll, and Ron Paul 2012 will be a little bit closer to a reality.

rprprs
04-06-2010, 09:20 AM
bump

catdd
04-06-2010, 09:28 AM
"If Ron Paul's supporters fail to accomplish this for him, the conventional wisdom will have been proven correct to the public. "

LibertyMage
04-06-2010, 09:33 AM
The conference has been strategically placed so that it is hard for the common person to reach the event but easy for the establishment politician. The question that needs to be asked is - what does the south need from the rest of us to make this happen?

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:38 AM
The conference has been strategically placed so that it is hard for the common person to reach the event but easy for the establishment politician.

How do you figure that? It's right next to a big casino. It's a lot closer to the common people and further from the establishment than CPAC was.

catdd
04-06-2010, 09:44 AM
Isn't there a college nearby?

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:51 AM
Isn't there a college nearby?

Yes--Loyola University, home of Austrian Economics professor Walter Block, a huge proponent of Ron Paul 2012.

catdd
04-06-2010, 09:54 AM
They need to come out in force.

Matt Collins
04-06-2010, 09:55 AM
I'll be there.

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:56 AM
I'll be there.

That settles it--victory is assured :D

fisharmor
04-06-2010, 09:56 AM
How do you figure that? It's right next to a big casino. It's a lot closer to the common people and further from the establishment than CPAC was.

CPAC was 6 hours or less by car from several dozen metropolitan areas across the entire mid Atlantic region.
New Orleans is... well, New Orleans is about it for that area.

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 10:01 AM
CPAC was 6 hours or less by car from several dozen metropolitan areas across the entire mid Atlantic region.
New Orleans is... well, New Orleans is about it for that area.

Ah I see, you mean in terms of transportation to the city it's held in.

It could have been a lot worse, like down the Florida peninsula. Even Nashville, where they had it last time, isn't all that close to very many cities.

Matt Collins
04-06-2010, 10:11 AM
But the consensus among the pundit class is that Ron Paul's CPAC victory was a fluke, and therefore that the straw poll was a false start for the 2012 presidential race. The new starting line is now the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this weekend. And that is why Ron Paul must win the straw poll.

If Ron Paul does win the SRLC straw poll, the response from the pundit class will be exactly the same. Ron Paul will have been the only candidate to "pack the convention" again, the straw poll will have been rendered meaningless, it will be declared another false start to the presidential race, and a new starting line will be announced (perhaps the Values Voter Summit in September?).
Damn good write up and very accurate analysis!

I've learned from my local Republican Party that it's like playing checkers with 5 year olds. If they see you are winning they just keep changing the rules. CPAC is the deciding event. Uhh... no, SRLC is the deciding event... err.. no, VVS is the deciding event... err... no the Iowa straw poll is the deciding event... ;)


.

LibertyMage
04-06-2010, 10:18 AM
CPAC was 6 hours or less by car from several dozen metropolitan areas across the entire mid Atlantic region.
New Orleans is... well, New Orleans is about it for that area.

Bingo.

Click on this link, scroll out and you will see exactly what I mean.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Two+Poydras+Street+New+Orleans,+Louisiana+70130&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=63.086946,98.525391&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=2+Poydras+St,+New+Orleans,+Orleans,+Louisian a+70130&ll=36.279707,-90.878906&spn=16.340893,24.631348&z=6

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 11:32 AM
Help keep this bumped at DailyPaul if you think it's persuasive: http://www.dailypaul.com/node/130915

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 02:23 PM
Bump

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:07 PM
Bump

dr. hfn
04-06-2010, 09:09 PM
bump!

wizardwatson
04-06-2010, 09:16 PM
If Ron would just commit to running, it would be a lot easier to guarantee his victory in these kinds of things.

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:20 PM
If Ron would just commit to running, it would be a lot easier to guarantee his victory in these kinds of things.

Why is it up to him to make 1,000,000 times the commitment that is being asked of his supporters to help him win a straw poll, just to make us feel good?

Maybe if we deliver enough straw poll victories for him, he'll be persuaded that he can do better than he did last time and announce that he is running.

reduen
04-06-2010, 09:26 PM
Or do I have to come down there and show you all how we do it in Arkansas????? :cool:

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:28 PM
Or do I have to come down there and show you all how we do it in Arkansas????? :cool:

If you live in Arkansas, then get your ass down there!

reduen
04-06-2010, 09:30 PM
If you live in Arkansas, then get your ass down there!


But it is 10hrs away.... and No, I will not be doing the truffle shuffle any time soon....;)

AlexMerced
04-06-2010, 09:35 PM
Let's just win this and anything else we can, not cause we hope the pundits will finally admit it, but to prove nothing can stop an idea who's time has come!!!

Liberty Now, Not Later

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:36 PM
But it is 10hrs away.... and No, I will not be doing the truffle shuffle any time soon....;)

What part of AR? I know someone in Fayetteville I've been trying to talk into going.

Matt Collins
04-06-2010, 09:40 PM
Or do I have to come down there and show you all how we do it in Arkansas????? :cool:
Yes yuo need to. Not sure how many people we have, but get down there! If nothing else you get to meet me in person. Oh, and Ron will also be there too ;):p

jake
04-06-2010, 09:47 PM
i'd love to go. I'd fly if I were in the US but I'm a Canadian :(

reduen
04-06-2010, 09:48 PM
What part of AR? I know someone in Fayetteville I've been trying to talk into going.

North Central (Mountain View). Fayettville is about 3hrs west of me...

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 09:49 PM
i'd love to go. I'd fly if I were in the US but I'm a Canadian :(

The straw poll registration is open to anyone. US citizenship is not required.

wizardwatson
04-06-2010, 09:50 PM
Why is it up to him to make 1,000,000 times the commitment that is being asked of his supporters to help him win a straw poll, just to make us feel good?

Maybe if we deliver enough straw poll victories for him, he'll be persuaded that he can do better than he did last time and announce that he is running.

I'm not saying its "up to him". I'm just saying a lot more people would be off the sidelines if he committed.

reduen
04-06-2010, 09:56 PM
Yes yuo need to. Not sure how many people we have, but get down there! If nothing else you get to meet me in person. Oh, and Ron will also be there too ;):p

Now that I know for sure that you will be going to protect me, I am there.... ;)

Honestly, I am trying really hard to make all arrangements necessary even as we speak. I am just in over my head with my local liberty candidates campaign, my new involvement with our local GOP and life etc.....

My oldest son and I went all the way to Ames, Iowa to volunteer for Dr. Paul's presidential campaign and never even got to meet him. It would be nice to finally shake his hand... :)

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 10:08 PM
Now that I know for sure that you will be going to protect me, I am there.... ;)

Honestly, I am trying really hard to make all arrangements necessary even as we speak. I am just in over my head with my local liberty candidates campaign, my new involvement with our local GOP and life etc...

Tell these people that a Ron Paul SRLC victory would strengthen the Paul brand that most liberty candidates are running under.

reduen
04-06-2010, 10:21 PM
Tell these people that a Ron Paul SRLC victory would strengthen the Paul brand that most liberty candidates are running under.

I am 90% sure that I will make it... and by the way, if you guys would like to encourage the candidate that I am helping here is a link : www.arsenate10.com

As usual money would be great but right now Paul could really just use some encouragement. His daughter is getting her last kidney removed and they do not have a donor lined up yet.

Also, the establishment GOP in our state threw in a Palin-like candidate to run against him in the primary... For those of you who would not mind, you could use the contact on his site to write Mr. White a few words of encouragement. (If not, it was worth a shot to ask anyway..)

lx43
04-06-2010, 10:41 PM
Anyone have any idea how many people will show up for RP?

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 10:54 PM
Anyone have any idea how many people will show up for RP?

111 people have pledged to attend at http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=107027639325734 and another 214 say they might. Based on my feedback from spamming the maybe list, I'd say about half of them will attend. So that's 218.

If half the people attending can't be bothered with Facebook, battleofneworleans2010.com , etc, or just plain don't spend much time on the internet, which has been the case with moneybombs, then that might raise the total of hardcore Ron Paul supporters attending to 436.

If we assume that Ron Paul has about 5% in soft support from the typical Republican sheeple in attendance, then that might add another 100 votes.

So my guess, after a lot of hand-waving, would be that he has maybe 550 votes at this point.

Whether that's enough to win depends heavily on turnout and how evenly the neocon vote is split. If there are a total 2,000 votes, then 550 could do it. However, I think turnout will be higher than that. As I've posted elsewhere:


Republicans appear highly energized this year, so we should expect heavy turnout to SRLC. The last SRLC was held in Tennessee in 2006, when 1,427 attendees voted in the straw won by US Senator Bill Frist, thanks to his local support. As we all know, 2006 was a dark year for Republicans (but not for Ron Paul!). Participation in CPAC's straw poll increased from 1,251 in 2006 to 2,395 in 2010. An equivalent increase in straw poll turnout at SRLC would mean 2,750 straw poll voters at SRLC this year. This means our ambitious goal of bringing 1,000 Ron Paul supporters to SRLC should be considered a minimum for a straw poll victory.

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 11:02 PM
Whether that's enough to win depends heavily on turnout and how evenly the neocon vote is split.

One thing we have working in our favor against the big 3 (Phailin, Romneycare and Suckabee) is that there will be two locals on the straw poll ballot, LA governor Jindal and MS governor Barbour.

reduen
04-06-2010, 11:17 PM
One thing we have working in our favor against the big 3 (Phailin, Romneycare and Suckabee) is that there will be two locals on the straw poll ballot, LA governor Jindal and MS governor Barbour.

Are you coordinating with CFL and/or YAL in your efforts or just as an individual?

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 11:19 PM
Are you coordinating with CFL and/or YAL in your efforts or just as an individual?

I'm a lone spammer in Australia.

reduen
04-06-2010, 11:21 PM
I'm a lone spammer in Australia.

:) :cool:

Don't tell me you are in your mothers basement.... lol (By the way, why is it always a mothers basement?)

rp08orbust
04-06-2010, 11:22 PM
:) :cool:

Don't tell me you are in your mothers basement.... lol (By the way, why is it always a mothers basement?)

My mother is in Huntington Beach, California, and does not have a basement :D

Seriously though, there is some serious activity by the local C4L/YAL groups according to torchbearer, who would know more about it than I do.

reduen
04-06-2010, 11:27 PM
My mother is in Huntington Beach, California, and does not have a basement :D

Well, good on ya mate. Sorry you will not be able to make it to this but thank you from me personally for you efforts. You are another one of the few that continue to give me hope in this dark time... :)

rp08orbust
04-07-2010, 07:51 AM
I've inserted this paragraph into the top post:


While the straw poll faze of the presidential race is the most favorable for Ron Paul, it is also the most favorable for all of the other underdog candidates as well. Losing the SRLC straw poll, or any of the upcoming straw polls, means an opportunity for one of the middle or lower-tier candidates like Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty or Haley Barbour to grab headlines and demonstrate their electability, just as Mike Huckabee did by coming in second at the Ames, Iowa straw poll in 2007. We cannot allow that to happen. Ron Paul must monopolize the position in the race as the novel alternative candidate with the potential to threaten the front-runners in Iowa and New Hampshire. As soon as Gingrich, Pawlenty or Barbour wins a straw poll, that's all the pundits will talk about--Ron Paul will be instantly displaced. To maximize Ron's chances of winning the race, we must keep the race between him and the same old worn-out empty suits he ran against last time.

rp08orbust
04-07-2010, 09:58 AM
Bump

catdd
04-07-2010, 11:22 AM
There has to be a few hundred RP supporters at Loyola.

JamesButabi
04-07-2010, 12:07 PM
Hopefully YAL chapters are active on this. SRLC is priority number 1 in my opinion

rp08orbust
04-07-2010, 03:00 PM
There has to be a few hundred RP supporters at Loyola.

I'm sure he's very aware of the SRLC, but I just emailed the top post to Walter Block.

rp08orbust
04-08-2010, 08:19 AM
Bump

rp08orbust
04-08-2010, 01:58 PM
Bump

rp08orbust
04-10-2010, 05:13 PM
Should have done one more bump :(

low preference guy
04-10-2010, 05:34 PM
Ron Paul went from being uninvited to losing by one vote, when three people voted for Gary Johnson. This is a win.

rp08orbust
04-10-2010, 05:39 PM
How the hell were we not able to overwhelm the thing with 2,000 votes for Ron Paul?

wgadget
04-10-2010, 05:45 PM
It was rigged?

YouTube - Romney Supporter Votes Dozens of Times in Florida Straw Poll (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bRGMrPP4as)

rp08orbust
04-10-2010, 05:46 PM
It was rigged?

Wrong.