PPP 2012 Poll: Ron Paul Draws 11% in 4-way race

[Epic]

Ron Paul drew 11% in a four-way matchup with Romney, Huckabee, and Palin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_319.pdf (PDF)

Romney 28
Huckabee 24
Palin 23
Paul 11

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/53637.html

Guys, this is actually an amazing result. The latest numbers I had seen were like 4% or so.

[johnrocks]

11% would not be a bad number but where would he go or draw from there;the Palin voters?

[rp08orbust]

If you'd like to see that number go even higher, check out the Southern Republican Leadership Conference sub-forum and find ways to help Ron win the straw poll.

[brandon]

I believe McCain was polling around 11% a few weeks/months before the primaries began.


Nationwide polls don't really tell you that much though. It's all about the first 4-5 states, which most of us RPF veterans know.

[nate895]

11% would not be a bad number but where would he go or draw from there;the Palin voters?

Depends on how he positions himself. I could see him winning by picking up good portions of the Huckabee/Palin constituencies if the made his campaign based on two themes: Out of control Federal Reserve and state's rights. He needs to have a consistent theme to drill into the voter's minds, like Giuliani's "9/11," McCain's "war hero" status, or Obama's fresh face combined with "hope" and "change."

[South Park Fan]

This is a massive improvement over what we were polling before CPAC! This is more than double how we performed last election. If we can win SRLC, this should go up even more, as we convince even more people of the self-fulifilling prophecy that Ron Paul can win.

[nate895]

Nationwide polls don't really tell you that much though. It's all about the first 4-5 states, which most of us RPF veterans know.

Nationwide polls don't tell you who is going to win directly, but they do tell you who is going to get MSM attention. With those numbers, he should get more than he did last time, but still nowhere near the "frontrunners."

[brandon]

Nationwide polls don't tell you who is going to win directly, but they do tell you who is going to get MSM attention. With those numbers, he should get more than he did last time, but still nowhere near the "frontrunners."

True.

But as the LRC article points out, a win at SRLC and a win at the Iowa straw poll will change the whole game.

Not to mention he should be able to out fund raise everyone in the field.

[brandon]

Look at the early december polls. McCain was polling between 10%-15%

Paul was polling around 6%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

[KramerDSP]

11% would not be a bad number but where would he go or draw from there;the Palin voters?

Romney 28
Huckabee 24
Palin 23
Paul 11

Call me crazy, but here's how I see it. Rand has to win the Senate seat in KY, but if/when he does, the beginning stages of Ron Paul 2012 will form. Some have suggested the announcement happen in November/December of 2010. It's likely he'd get $2 million + in the first 24-48 hours of announcing. Then December 16, 2010 arrives, and the movement duplicates or surpasses the 2007 Money Bomb.

These things happening would give Ron Paul a $10 million dollar war chest even before the first primary debates begin in May of 2011. Romney's support almost always peels off a little (especially with the evangelicals) as time goes by, so if we could peel off 5% from Romney, 5% from Huckabee (following the re-scrutinizing of his Willie Horton decision), and 5% or more from Palin if she falters in the debates and/or has another huge media incident, which is likely.

Add 15% to that 11% and we're looking at a 4-way dead heat between Paul, Romney, Huckabee, and Palin. Does someone else somehow swoop along and captivate voters from Rom/Huck/Palin? The thing with Ron is that he rarely, if ever, loses any support. Once you understand and embrace what RP stands for, it is very difficult not to see through all of the other candidates in both parties.

I think in the convention where Goldwater won the nomination, there were deadlocked delegates. 2012 could be a year where a similar situation could happen. The argument the GOP base needs to understand (especially the Palin supporters) but won't, is that Ron Paul has so much more of a chance of beating Obama in a general election than Palin. The Democrats who are pissed at Obama would likely NEVER vote for Palin. The Independents are a little tricky, but I'd venture to say the majority of them would favor Paul over Palin as well. Only Paul is to the "left" of Obama on the wars and to the "right" of Obama on the economy.

It feels like a slam dunk. But I know it's not. Still, 11% at this stage is very impressive, even if the number of people polled seems like a smaller sample size than I'm used to seeing.

[brandon]

I agree with your analysis Kramer. You're just forgetting one thing. The "racist" newsletters. They will be brought up again, and it will cause him to lose some support.

I still think he can pull it off though.

[KramerDSP]

I agree with your analysis Kramer. You're just forgetting one thing. The "racist" newsletters. They will be brought up again, and it will cause him to lose some support.

I still think he can pull it off though.

Thats true. If only that never happened. The only blemish would be admitting an addiction to chocolate chip cookies! :) There has to be a way to fight those allegations. Some kind of website that has videos of RP on the War on Drugs and how it affects minorities the most, statements from the NAACP president, and so forth.

I see you're from Philly. I grew up by Cottman-Castor in the NE. My family is still up there. Love that city, but could do without the snow!

[Anti Federalist]

That number would be sure to increase if he declared his candidacy, officially.

[Brett]

First: It's great he's being included. We need to keep that momentum so his message can be heard. When it's heard it's a winning message.
Second: Rehash Candidates never do well. Huckabee and Romney should stop trying. Republicans have historically just given the nomination to the guy who's been trying and failing for the longest. That doesn't work for the rest of non-neocon population. Many Conservatives are jaded and think Palin could win a general (I love most of her policies, but she would never win against Obama).

I wish if he was declaring he wouldn't have run for his house seat. He's playing directly into the criticism of his "tea party" opponents in the primary.

Random thought: If in 2011 Ron Paul steps down from his position, is it up to the governor to appoint a new member until 2012? if so, maybe they could strike a deal. Medina won't run for governor if they appoint her the position. That'd be awesome.

[TCE]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that our numbers were a lot greater two years ago and even 2 1/2 years ago. We need everyone and more to come back.

[Bergie Bergeron]

The Precinct Leader idea needs to be used way more if he runs again.

[parocks]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that our numbers were a lot greater two years ago and even 2 1/2 years ago. We need everyone and more to come back.

The numbers are less because Ron Paul isn't running for President (yet).

[kahless]

I can see the ignorance of why someone would vote for Huckabee or Palin, but Romney and the fact that he is no top, the stupidity of those polled is unbelievable. I bet those polled will also tell you they are against mandatory healthcare and at the same time will vote for mandatory health care Romney.

[paulitics]

Thats true. If only that never happened. The only blemish would be admitting an addiction to chocolate chip cookies! :) There has to be a way to fight those allegations. Some kind of website that has videos of RP on the War on Drugs and how it affects minorities the most, statements from the NAACP president, and so forth.

I see you're from Philly. I grew up by Cottman-Castor in the NE. My family is still up there. Love that city, but could do without the snow!

How about any Ron Paul rally, where there is a decent representation of minorities. I know it's not enough, but there are some. You will not see that at a typical republican rally.

[RM918]

And this will be floated as a continuing reason of Ron Paul's 'Unseriousness'.

[Inkblots]

I agree with your analysis Kramer. You're just forgetting one thing. The "racist" newsletters. They will be brought up again, and it will cause him to lose some support.

I still think he can pull it off though.

There's a simply and effective solution to that "issue". Here it is:
"Racism is simply an ugly form of collectivism, the mindset that views humans strictly as members of groups rather than individuals. Racists believe that all individuals who share superficial physical characteristics are alike: as collectivists, racists think only in terms of groups. . .

The true antidote to racism is liberty. Liberty means having a limited, constitutional government devoted to the protection of individual rights rather than group claims. Liberty means free-market capitalism, which rewards individual achievement and competence, not skin color, gender, or ethnicity."
-Congressman Ron Paul

Everywhere you see the newsletters brought up, anywhere a neocon or socialist intimates that Ron Paul is a racist, anytime you see a comment on a blog or article winkingly conflate Dr. Paul with Stormfront, drop that quote on them. We quite frankly need to fill the internet with this quote, because it is self-evident that there is no way the author of that quote has a racist bone in his body. Indeed, anyone with even the most casual knowledge of Ron Paul's philosophy will immediately recognize that if he holds collectivism in general to be abhorrent and anti-human, has much more so "ugly" collectivism!


The Precinct Leader idea needs to be used way more if he runs again.

As I'm new around here, could you elaborate on this (or link to a relevant thread)? Thank you.

[sratiug]

In the last Republican primary, how many convention votes would have been needed to prevent anyone else from winning the nomination without our endorsement?

Same question for the general, how many electors would it have taken to make the electoral college debate the results?

[SamuraisWisdom]

I think that Question 11 was the most important question for us in that poll.

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29................................................ ........... 8%
30 to 45................................................ ........... 24%
46 to 65................................................ ........... 46%
Older than 65................................................ .. 21%

Up until now, most of RPs support came from the 18 to 29 demographic, but in this poll only 8% of the respondents were in that age group. But he pulled 11% in this poll, which means that RPs popularity in older folk is growing and that's very important considering they are the vast majority of Republicans.

[TCE]

The numbers are less because Ron Paul isn't running for President (yet).

If we had similar numbers, Rand would be over 50% by now and our other candidates would be much more competitive. Sadness.

Samurai: An excellent point, but it will take Get out the Vote drives to get people registered Republican, especially in those age groups. The people who were in college two years ago aren't the same ones now, they've graduated. Time to get the new college classes voting for Dr. Paul. This is how YAL can have a huge influence.

[AlexMerced]

This is good, so what should we do?

- Ron Paul should focus on his re-election

- We should focus on educating more and more

- Targeting and organizing around the major straw polls is productive

- trust if he announced the troops will rush back in

Why would someone support the others?

Romney: Well in the views of most, Romneys flip flop pinciples means he can shift fromt right to center easily which makes his perceptually a good gen election candidate. What they don't realize is he's not very likeable, and unpredictable as on if he'll stick to any sort of agenda voters may expect from him.

Huckabee: He's funny, he's charming, and he's religous to vote, he's an evengelicals darling and he wants to get rid of the IRS too. Although, his populist overtones are overshadowed by views on education, healthcare and more that seem to favor more state control and pushing of values using state power... ick.

Palin: She appeals to nutty neo-cons who wants to force values on not only the country but the world... which is luckily a shrinking community

Paul: Freedom Baby!

[TCE]

This is good, so what should we do?

- Ron Paul should focus on his re-election

- We should focus on educating more and more

- Targeting and organizing around the major straw polls is productive

- trust if he announced the troops will rush back in

Why would someone support the others?

Romney: Well in the views of most, Romneys flip flop pinciples means he can shift fromt right to center easily which makes his perceptually a good gen election candidate. What they don't realize is he's not very likeable, and unpredictable as on if he'll stick to any sort of agenda voters may expect from him.

Huckabee: He's funny, he's charming, and he's religous to vote, he's an evengelicals darling and he wants to get rid of the IRS too. Although, his populist overtones are overshadowed by views on education, healthcare and more that seem to favor more state control and pushing of values using state power... ick.

Palin: She appeals to nutty neo-cons who wants to force values on not only the country but the world... which is luckily a shrinking community

Paul: Freedom Baby!

I'm not convinced Huckabee will run. He has said time and again how happy he is at Fox. Also, you can guarantee that inmate scandal will appear again. I just can't see him winning after that. Willie Horton ad, anyone?

The assembly in the first few states is the most crucial. Look at why Rand is having such success, he is using the free media like none other before him. We don't need people to be educated, just vote for Dr. Paul. He'll get more screen time and we have to do less. Put in more effort up front and have to do less later.

[Galileo Galilei]

The poll was also slightly rigged against Ron Paul. they asked for opinions of Palin, Romney and Huckabee (but not Paul) first, then asked who you'd vote for.

[ninepointfive]

I'm really enjoying seeing those numbers!

[Galileo Galilei]

Two things help Ron move up in the polls:

Ron wins the SRLC straw poll in April.

Rand wins the Kentucky primary in May.

[TCE]

Two things help Ron move up in the polls:

Ron wins the SRLC straw poll in April.

Rand wins the Kentucky primary in May.

1. Definitely. It ups his name recognition and shows that he's serious.

2. Not so much. A poll recently came out showing people in Kentucky loving Rand but not really liking Ron. This shows that the two men are basically separate from each other. More so, it'll help us in our recruiting efforts and showing that we're serious.

[Agorism]

It's good that Ron is not going to Kentucky.

When W. ran for president, the old man was never seen because you kind of need to let the son fight his own battles. Otherwise people will start to confuse W. and his GHB.

[BlackTerrel]

Interesting from the article:


Palin is actually the most popular of the field with 69% of Republican primary voters
viewing her favorably to 57% for Romney and 54% for Huckabee. Her problem is that
she also leads the field in people who like her but won’t necessarily vote for her. Barely
half of folks with a positive opinion of Palin think she could defeat Barack Obama.

People aren't just voting for who they like they are also taking into consideration who has a chance to win. That is very interesting.

People are identifying correctly that Palin has no cross over appeal and has no chance in a nationwide election against Obama. I'd say the same is true for Huckabee who has his base among right wing white Southern Christians but has very little appeal aside from that. Romney has the most going for him, but poll after poll says a Mormon is not going to win a national election.

That leaves Paul - he has the most potential among independents. Interesting to follow how this turns out.

[Galileo Galilei]

1. Definitely. It ups his name recognition and shows that he's serious.

2. Not so much. A poll recently came out showing people in Kentucky loving Rand but not really liking Ron. This shows that the two men are basically separate from each other. More so, it'll help us in our recruiting efforts and showing that we're serious.

I think Rand helps Ron every time a new poll comes out in Kentucky. People see Paul 40%, Paul 44%, Paul 45%, etc. and then it makes it easier to vote for Ron Paul on the next phone survey.

Also, a Rand win gives Ron a point man in the Senate for the Audit the Fed bill. One of the main arguments against Ron Paul is that he has never sponsored meaningful legislation. Well, that will end if Rand wins.

Rand is also getting national TV interveiws. Rand sounds more like a noraml republican so it helps Ron's image among voters.

Rand is also getting major endorsements. When people hear about the Ronald Reagan PAC or Sarah Palin endorsement, that helps Ron as well.

25 Reason Why Ron Paul can win in 2012 (Summary)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=235247

[Galileo Galilei]

It's good that Ron is not going to Kentucky.

When W. ran for president, the old man was never seen because you kind of need to let the son fight his own battles. Otherwise people will start to confuse W. and his GHB.

he already went there.

[rp08orbust]

Bump

[sofia]

Look at the early december polls. McCain was polling between 10%-15%

Paul was polling around 6%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html

but McCain had the MSM to resurrect his dead campaign. We still have to overcome the silent treatment.


The key is New Hampshire...and Iowa....which are both rigged by voting machines

[sofia]

Ron Paul drew 11% in a four-way matchup with Romney, Huckabee, and Palin.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_319.pdf (PDF)

Romney 28
Huckabee 24
Palin 23
Paul 11

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/53637.html

Guys, this is actually an amazing result. The latest numbers I had seen were like 4% or so.

that means the neo-con vote is 89%....hardly good news.


Ron has got to go third party after losing the GOP primaries...which he will

[Ninja Homer]

When Obama is in his 3rd year as prez and the economy isn't any better, and he can no longer just blame it on Bush's mess, there are going to be a lot of former Obama supporters looking for somebody exactly like Ron Paul to support. I think he'll be polling pretty high before the first debate, and then his time in the debates can't be minimalized like it was last time without it looking like a complete sham. The more time he has in debates, the more he can educate the viewers on his positions, and the more support he gets.

For those that remember the last Iowa Straw Poll, just think how wild the next one will be! As soon as Ron Paul announces we should start booking nearby hotels and campgrounds and get GOTV projects started. The Iowa Straw Poll is really when the political media frenzy starts.

[rp08orbust]

that means the neo-con vote is 89%....hardly good news.

Ron has got to go third party after losing the GOP primaries...which he will

Logic fail. The anti-third-party vote was 99% in the last election.

[TCE]

I doubt he'll go Third Party. He is the one that has been the biggest advocate of working within the Republican Party.

[silus]

If Romney wins i'm giving up on politics forever.

[brandon]

If Romney wins i'm giving up on politics forever.

I'm with you Silus

[fj45lvr]

Depends on how he positions himself. I could see him winning by picking up good portions of the Huckabee/Palin constituencies if the made his campaign based on two themes: Out of control Federal Reserve and state's rights. He needs to have a consistent theme to drill into the voter's minds, like Giuliani's "9/11," McCain's "war hero" status, or Obama's fresh face combined with "hope" and "change."

Paul is great for educating the public and bringing in the real issues....however, he doesn't have the KILLER INSTINCT needed to shred his opponents for their failed ideology, he's a gentleman and a nobleman and I don't peronally think that will be enough in the crass and stupid society we have where people don't admire those principles....every debate is a battle and a Liberty candidate has to wield some bombshells to expose the frauds on stage with him or her....

I believe that this is populist and if it happens the person can really win by the right ideas AND exposing the enemies.

[AlexMerced]

We won last time, we sparked a movement, and whether he wins or loses in another go around it'd be a win cause it can only push up our momentum

[Live_Free_Or_Die]

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/thumb_279/12133243087e3UjM.jpg

[cindy25]

Romney can't overcome Romneycare although he will try
Palin won't run
neither will Huck

look at Pawlenty, Ryan, Pence to be in it

[rp08orbust]

Bump