Magellen poll shows Paul with 8% lead

[lildave2586]

I just saw this on WHAS. Apparently Bill Johnson paid Magellen (remember them?) to run a poll for him, which showed he was running at 6%. Interestingly enough, it showed Rand at 37% and Grayson at 29%. Maybe this didn't deserve it's own thread but I thought it was interesting.

http://www.whas11.com/news/politics/87265902.html

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I just saw this on WHAS. Apparently Bill Johnson paid Magellen (remember them?) to run a poll for him, which showed he was running at 6%. Interestingly enough, it showed Rand at 37% and Grayson at 29%. Maybe this didn't deserve it's own thread but I thought it was interesting.

http://www.whas11.com/news/politics/87265902.html

That's an eight point lead.

[lildave2586]

That's an eight point lead.

You've proved what my high school math teachers already knew.

[gls]

Internal polls are never very accurate. They are designed to make the candidate who paid for them look good, or at least better than he or she otherwise would.

[Shotdown1027]

Besides, an 8% lead is good. And either way, we ought to be scrapping and fighting like we're 10 points back.

[TCE]

While Magellan is clearly a very fishy internal polling business, these results sound roughly right, with Johnson probably only at 3 or 4%. Now that Johnson is gone, we must act like all of his supporters are jumping on the Grayson bandwagon. Remember that Mommy is still pushing against Rand and could bring several hundred Johnson supporters with her over to Grayson.

[BamaFanNKy]

Mommy, meet Gurley!

[lordindra3]

No, actually Magellan actually had Paul with a 19 point lead late Feb, but its not that he has gone down.... You simply have to look at Johnson's first rebuttal to SurveyUSA: First he said that he was going to do an internal poll BASED ON PEOPLE WHO HAVE VOTED IN KY PRIMARY BEFORE. So the demographics are different. Those are hard party Old Guard voters. So even out of those, Rand is still in the lead. But out of likely Republican primary voters Rand is leading by 19 points! Anybody want to rebut me on that? Give it a shot.

[dannno]

Does anybody know if this was a push poll?

That would be funny of Rand won a push poll.

[Shotdown1027]

It is not a push-poll. Magellan Strategies has done many professional polls, their last one showed Paul ahead by 19%.

It was, however, a poll that was designed to test specific parameters. Those parameters were to find out who would win the race amongst Republicans who voted in the primaries in 08, 06, or 04. This is what Bill Johnson complained about with the Survery USA survey---he claimed self-identified "like Republican voters" were not reliable, and that the survey should poll past primary voters.

He's wrong, of course. For one, this does not usually drastically change poll results. Secondly, all it does it tell you exactly what it says--who prior Republican primary voters will vote for and how they'll vote. Some of those people won't vote this time, other people who have never voted before will vote this time--so it's a gauge that is no more effective than the strategies used by Survery USA or PPP. In fact, Survey USA and PPP use the "likely voter" method because it has been found to be MUCH more accurate. Basically, Bill set odd parameters hoping that these more stringent parameters would help boost his poll numbers without being a push poll. It didnt, in fact it only improved his poll numbers by 1%. It did, however, skew the poll results away from Rand, who benefits from irregular voters and young voters (who are missed by Johnson's poll).

[Agorism]

In SurveyUSA, Paul got about even with Grayson in the young voters category.