hugolp
03-07-2010, 03:19 PM
Can anyone explain the implications of this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-oneills-weekend-just-got-really-bad-china-prepares-nullify-local-government-loan-guarant
Jim O'Neill's Weekend Just Got Really Bad, As China Prepares To Nullify Local Government Loan Guarantees
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2010 14:31 -0500
The horrible news hits just keep on coming for Goldman's Jim O'Neill. First the BRIC acronym creator (soon to be largely forgotten when confronted with much more awesome comparables as CRAP and STUPID, the latter of which has already been subsumed for general consumption by CNBC) is rumored to be getting the boot from Goldman due to his involvement in the Red Knights group which is seeking to acquire the Red Devils (aka Manchester United), and now China just announced it is about to pull the rug out of the entire lending concept when it announces it is nullifying loan guarantees by all local governments. Just to put this in perspective, the impact of this is akin to what Obama did to Chrysler's secured lenders, multiplied by about one Fed dollop of MBS holdings (i.e., trillion), with debtors not even getting the courtesy Steve Rattner K-Y reacharound. The total potential impact: $3.5 trillion smackers. And some large, recently bailed out bank, has been seen as claiming the CNY is about to get revalued. HA HA HA. Oh, and goodbye BRICs.
From Bloomberg.
China plans to nullify all guarantees local governments have provided for loans taken by their financing vehicles as concerns about credit risks on such debt surges.
The Ministry of Finance will also ban all future guarantees by local governments and legislatures in rules that may be issued as soon as this month, Yan Qingmin, head of the banking regulator’s Shanghai branch, said in an interview. The ministry held meetings on the rules on Feb. 25 with regulators including the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the People’s Bank of China, Yan said March 5.
China’s local governments are raising funds through investment vehicles to circumvent regulations that prevent them from borrowing directly. A crackdown on local- government borrowing, estimated at about 24 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion) by Northwestern University Professor Victor Shih, could trigger a “gigantic wave” of bad loans as projects are left without funding, Shih said this month.
Not really much commenting needed here:
A few cities and counties may face very large repayment pressure in coming years because of debt ratios already exceeding 400 percent, a person with knowledge of the matter said in January. The ratio is of year-end outstanding debt to annual disposable fiscal income.
The financing vehicles of large coastal cities are well-funded as most have publicly traded subsidiaries that can raise capital from the markets and rely less on bank loans. Entities in northern and western China are of particular concern, the banking regulator’s Yan said while attending the parliamentary meetings.
The 1998 collapse of Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corp., which borrowed domestically and overseas on behalf of southern China’s Guangdong province, left creditors including Dresdner Bank AG of Germany and Bank One Corp. in the U.S. with $3 billion of unpaid bonds. It marked the first time that Chinese authorities failed to bail out one of the nation’s state-owned trusts.
And as if that wasn't enough, China's foreign minister was heard saying yesterday that China's US relations are now "seriously disrupted." The blame - squarely on president Obama.
"The responsibility does not lie with China," said Yang, speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of the annual session of China's parliament.
Beijing and Washington have recently gone through a rough patch, with quarrels in January and February over Chinese Internet censorship, trade disputes, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader.
The United States "must respect China's core interests" on Taiwan and Tibet, Yang added. "I believe the United States understands very well China's core interests and major concerns.
It's all good though - the Fed will just keep. on. printing, even as the global prisoner's dilemma game is rapidly approaching its unwind phase.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-oneills-weekend-just-got-really-bad-china-prepares-nullify-local-government-loan-guarant
Jim O'Neill's Weekend Just Got Really Bad, As China Prepares To Nullify Local Government Loan Guarantees
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2010 14:31 -0500
The horrible news hits just keep on coming for Goldman's Jim O'Neill. First the BRIC acronym creator (soon to be largely forgotten when confronted with much more awesome comparables as CRAP and STUPID, the latter of which has already been subsumed for general consumption by CNBC) is rumored to be getting the boot from Goldman due to his involvement in the Red Knights group which is seeking to acquire the Red Devils (aka Manchester United), and now China just announced it is about to pull the rug out of the entire lending concept when it announces it is nullifying loan guarantees by all local governments. Just to put this in perspective, the impact of this is akin to what Obama did to Chrysler's secured lenders, multiplied by about one Fed dollop of MBS holdings (i.e., trillion), with debtors not even getting the courtesy Steve Rattner K-Y reacharound. The total potential impact: $3.5 trillion smackers. And some large, recently bailed out bank, has been seen as claiming the CNY is about to get revalued. HA HA HA. Oh, and goodbye BRICs.
From Bloomberg.
China plans to nullify all guarantees local governments have provided for loans taken by their financing vehicles as concerns about credit risks on such debt surges.
The Ministry of Finance will also ban all future guarantees by local governments and legislatures in rules that may be issued as soon as this month, Yan Qingmin, head of the banking regulator’s Shanghai branch, said in an interview. The ministry held meetings on the rules on Feb. 25 with regulators including the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the People’s Bank of China, Yan said March 5.
China’s local governments are raising funds through investment vehicles to circumvent regulations that prevent them from borrowing directly. A crackdown on local- government borrowing, estimated at about 24 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion) by Northwestern University Professor Victor Shih, could trigger a “gigantic wave” of bad loans as projects are left without funding, Shih said this month.
Not really much commenting needed here:
A few cities and counties may face very large repayment pressure in coming years because of debt ratios already exceeding 400 percent, a person with knowledge of the matter said in January. The ratio is of year-end outstanding debt to annual disposable fiscal income.
The financing vehicles of large coastal cities are well-funded as most have publicly traded subsidiaries that can raise capital from the markets and rely less on bank loans. Entities in northern and western China are of particular concern, the banking regulator’s Yan said while attending the parliamentary meetings.
The 1998 collapse of Guangdong International Trust & Investment Corp., which borrowed domestically and overseas on behalf of southern China’s Guangdong province, left creditors including Dresdner Bank AG of Germany and Bank One Corp. in the U.S. with $3 billion of unpaid bonds. It marked the first time that Chinese authorities failed to bail out one of the nation’s state-owned trusts.
And as if that wasn't enough, China's foreign minister was heard saying yesterday that China's US relations are now "seriously disrupted." The blame - squarely on president Obama.
"The responsibility does not lie with China," said Yang, speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of the annual session of China's parliament.
Beijing and Washington have recently gone through a rough patch, with quarrels in January and February over Chinese Internet censorship, trade disputes, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader.
The United States "must respect China's core interests" on Taiwan and Tibet, Yang added. "I believe the United States understands very well China's core interests and major concerns.
It's all good though - the Fed will just keep. on. printing, even as the global prisoner's dilemma game is rapidly approaching its unwind phase.