Should CFL return the SRLC tickets?

[Knightskye]

I think people know Paul will win, but the GOP (the one CFL wants to "bring back to its roots") will see it as Paul stacking the deck.

Yes, Paul would go on MSNBC and CNN to do some interviews -- they seem to enjoy Ron Paul upsetting the Republican establishment -- but what good would it do?

[MRoCkEd]

No! We need to show we are a force to be reckoned with.

1. Paul loses overwhelmingly and the media says CPAC was a fluke.

2. Paul wins overwhelmingly and the media has to make excuses again - yet people notice Paul wins two major conservative conferences in a row...

[Bruehound]

Straw polls by their very nature are always stacked. They are a measure of strength of organization and by extrapolation;viability.

Ron Paul is very methodically and smartly positioning himself as a top tier candidate and quite possibly the front runner when he forms his exploratory committee in January 2011.

[DirtMcGirt]

Damn the torpedoes, Full steam ahead...

[dr. hfn]

fuck no they shouldn't return them! jeez!

[Ninja Homer]

No... just no.

[Imperial]

Damn the torpedoes, Full steam ahead...

Indeed!

[Agorism]

I was thinking 600 more if they sell those..

[AdamT]

Unleash the power of the grassroots!

[rp08orbust]

I think people know Paul will win, but the GOP (the one CFL wants to "bring back to its roots") will see it as Paul stacking the deck.

Yes, Paul would go on MSNBC and CNN to do some interviews -- they seem to enjoy Ron Paul upsetting the Republican establishment -- but what good would it do?

See Marcus Carey's podcast about "stacking the deck": http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232648

[pacelli]

Damn the torpedoes, Full steam ahead...

I agree. Its not like Romney was a saint during the various straw polls that he won.. you know, where he bussed in supporters to vote a few times for him?

Its time to stop playing "nice guy" and start kicking the opposition to the curb (metaphorically, of course).

[Epic]

Guys, real live human beings have to vote in the straw poll. Yes, money helps. But if a candidate had little support, you just can't get human beings to pay reduced price to come to a political event.

If Ron Paul were to win or do well, it would be impressive.

Plus, Straw Polls are important for the elections. There's the Iowa Straw Poll, and many state and local straw polls that get attention. It's worth being good at.

Plus, developing the organization and networking for 2012 is important.

And caucuses aren't too different than straw polls.

[Agorism]

How many people we need to win this Iowa Straw poll in 2011?

How many people attended the Rally for Republic? Can we bring in out of staters to win it?

[rp08orbust]

How many people we need to win this Iowa Straw poll in 2011?

How many people attended the Rally for Republic? Can we bring in out of staters to win it?

I would guess that it will take about 8,000 votes to win the 2011 Ames Straw Poll. Out-of-staters cannot vote, but they can obviously help out in other ways such as busing IA students to Ames.

More than 10,000 attended Rally for the Republic.

[Agorism]

You sure about not allowing out of staters to vote? I can see Romney shipping people in for that kind of thing.

Just curious about the official rules or if they check.

Looks like Paul got 5th place with 1305 votes or 9.1% in the straw poll.(I think he ended with 13% in the real Iowa Caucus.)

Wasn't he only polling 1-2% when the straw poll took place? Say if we started with 13% or so time going into the straw poll, would we get a higher percent the state wide popular vote?


Anyone remember ow Paul was polling state wide when the Iowa Straw poll occurred?

[rp08orbust]

You sure about not allowing out of staters to vote? I can see Romney shipping people in for that kind of thing.

Just curious about the official rules or if they check.

Yes, the official rule is that you have to be eligible to vote on general election day (meaning we can can a large number of 16-year-olds!), and it is checked. See Juan McCain's post in http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232814


Looks like Paul got 1305 votes or 9.1% in the straw poll.(I think he ended with 13% in the real Iowa Caucus.)

He got a bit under 10% in the IA caucus.


Wasn't he only polling 1-2% when the straw poll took place? Say if we started with 13% or so time going into the straw poll, would we get a higher percent the state wide popular vote?

I don't think there is any simple relationship between state-wide polls and Ames Straw Poll numbers. It's a matter of how much of an effort a campaign puts into shaking everyone's hand during the months before the poll and busing supporters to Ames on the day of the poll.

[Agorism]

2007 Iowa Straw poll results

1st Mitt Romney - 4516 votes - 31%
2nd Mike Huckabee - 2587 votes - 18.1%
Sam Brownback - 2192 votes - 15.3%
4th Tom Tancredo - 1961 votes - 13.7%
5th Ron Paul - 1305 votes - 9.1%
6th Tommy Thompson - 1,009 votes - 7.3%
7th Fred Thomson with 231 votes
8th Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes




You sure Romney wasn't shipping in out of staters for this thing?

Btw- Tom Tancredo and Tommy Thompson both had showings near Paul's showing. These were both 1%er's in the real caucus whereas Paul ended with 13%

Seems like we could win this thing. Only need 4-5 thousand votes by the looks of it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------
Also Steve Forbes nearly defeat GWB.

Paul has a much better grassroots organization than Forbes would I would think.


1999 Straw poll results

1 George W. Bush 7,418 31.3%
2 Steve Forbes 4,921 20.8%
3 Elizabeth Dole 3,410 14.4%
4 Gary Bauer 2,114 8.9%
5 Patrick Buchanan 1,719 7.3%
6 Lamar Alexander 1,428 6.0%
7 Alan Keyes 1,101 4.6%
8 Dan Quayle 916 3.9%
9 Orrin Hatch 558 2.4%
10 John McCain 83 0.4%
11 John Kasich 9 0.04%
12 Bob Smith 8 0.03%



You sure George W. Bush wasn't bringing in out of staters?

[Agorism]

btw...I swear the wikipedia numbers are wrong about the actual election results, the Iowa Caucus results. It says Paul got 10% but 13% is my head. Maybe I am just forgetting I guess.

[rp08orbust]

Doug Wead on Ron Paul winning the 2011 Ames Straw Poll:

http://dougwead.wordpress.com/2008/12/11/how-ron-paul-wins-in-2012-step-one/

[Agorism]

Did Paul spend all his 35 million? I assume he did, but I never heard.

[rp08orbust]

Did Paul spend all his 35 million? I assume he did, but I never heard.

Nope. I think about 5 million went to Campaign for Liberty, and perhaps a couple million went to his Congressional campaign account.

[Agorism]

Out of staters at the Iowa Straw poll article (http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1P2-851087.html)

Looks like the rules changed in 1999 to stop out of starters. Maybe growing YAL in Iowa should be the priority I guess.